Tonight, we’re watching a weak clipper pass through the region. It will be a quick hitter, and unlike clippers generally during the winter months, this one does not look like it will have the necessary cold air for a significant snow event.
Perhaps this clipper is indicative of the winter we’ve had so far—close but no cigar (if you like snow)—but we turn quickly from this clipper to a warmer than normal weekend and then a potentially active week ahead. Let’s get down to business…
Overnight/Saturday
As I noted previously, a weak clipper is passing through the region. It will be gone by mid-morning. Tonight, many should see a period of snow, but because this clipper is taking a northern track and not bringing significant cold with it, a fair amount of precipitation may be lost to plain old rain.
Perhaps this clipper is indicative of the winter we’ve had so far—close but no cigar (if you like snow)—but we turn quickly from this clipper to a warmer than normal weekend and then a potentially active week ahead. Let’s get down to business…
Overnight/Saturday
As I noted previously, a weak clipper is passing through the region. It will be gone by mid-morning. Tonight, many should see a period of snow, but because this clipper is taking a northern track and not bringing significant cold with it, a fair amount of precipitation may be lost to plain old rain.
This RGEM run, which is perhaps more bullish than other model simulations, projects a period of snow and rain for many through part of tomorrow morning.
As a result of the temperature issues, track of the clipper, and inherent issues with getting a significant amount of precipitation to fall with fast moving systems like this, most will see a minor to nonevent. The best chance of accumulating snow is in Litchfield County, but even there an inch or two of snow looks like a high bar. For the rest of Connecticut, maybe northern CT gets a coating to an inch by morning before being washed away if there is a changeover to rain. Southern Connecticut is unlikely to receive any meaningful wintry precipitation.
Saturday is not a terrible day however!
Temperatures rebound nicely as the clipper departs and we transition to sunny skies! Temperatures in the 50s will feel like Spring! Get outside and enjoy it!
As a result of the temperature issues, track of the clipper, and inherent issues with getting a significant amount of precipitation to fall with fast moving systems like this, most will see a minor to nonevent. The best chance of accumulating snow is in Litchfield County, but even there an inch or two of snow looks like a high bar. For the rest of Connecticut, maybe northern CT gets a coating to an inch by morning before being washed away if there is a changeover to rain. Southern Connecticut is unlikely to receive any meaningful wintry precipitation.
Saturday is not a terrible day however!
Temperatures rebound nicely as the clipper departs and we transition to sunny skies! Temperatures in the 50s will feel like Spring! Get outside and enjoy it!
GFS temps around 1pm tomorrow. The Euro is a few degrees warmer than this and would put most solidly into the 50s!
Sunday
Sunday brings another warmer than normal day, with increasing clouds but slightly cooler temperatures. It is at this point that we turn toward our next potential event—another clipper.
The GFS has no precipitation from this potential event, while the Euro brings a minor event. Like the current clipper that is poised to impact our area, temperatures are marginal at best overnight Sunday into Monday morning. As a result, I believe that we will see a period of light snow, but I do not believe it will be a very impactful event. We will be following closely in case things trend toward a colder and snowier solution, but right now I do not think that will occur.
Monday/Tuesday
With the clipper departing by early Monday, we transition to a nice and seasonably cool period as a strengthening high pressure system builds in. Both should be solid days, with partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures near normal.
Sunday
Sunday brings another warmer than normal day, with increasing clouds but slightly cooler temperatures. It is at this point that we turn toward our next potential event—another clipper.
The GFS has no precipitation from this potential event, while the Euro brings a minor event. Like the current clipper that is poised to impact our area, temperatures are marginal at best overnight Sunday into Monday morning. As a result, I believe that we will see a period of light snow, but I do not believe it will be a very impactful event. We will be following closely in case things trend toward a colder and snowier solution, but right now I do not think that will occur.
Monday/Tuesday
With the clipper departing by early Monday, we transition to a nice and seasonably cool period as a strengthening high pressure system builds in. Both should be solid days, with partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures near normal.
GFS projection of the weather on Monday, note the high pressure near the area—that signals a dry period on the way.
Wednesday/Thursday
By midweek, things become a lot more active. When I first started hearing the hype for next week, I was a touch surprised, given how often we’ve heard long range calls for winter storms this season in New England…which turned into rain events or misses. Sure enough, over the last few days the movement among guidance has been toward a convoluted event that produces more liquid than frozen.
That is not to say that any storm will not trend colder, but I think we all have to take things with a grain of salt when 1) events are far out into the future (anything longer than 4 days out) and 2) the seasonal trend has been for ingredients just missing the mark for a truly widespread and major event, even during these last few active weeks.
I’m breaking my own rule of showing an operational model run for something so far out, but since it shows rain I get to illustrate the setup without actually showing something worth hyping :p
Wednesday/Thursday
By midweek, things become a lot more active. When I first started hearing the hype for next week, I was a touch surprised, given how often we’ve heard long range calls for winter storms this season in New England…which turned into rain events or misses. Sure enough, over the last few days the movement among guidance has been toward a convoluted event that produces more liquid than frozen.
That is not to say that any storm will not trend colder, but I think we all have to take things with a grain of salt when 1) events are far out into the future (anything longer than 4 days out) and 2) the seasonal trend has been for ingredients just missing the mark for a truly widespread and major event, even during these last few active weeks.
I’m breaking my own rule of showing an operational model run for something so far out, but since it shows rain I get to illustrate the setup without actually showing something worth hyping :p
GFS from Tuesday Morning through Friday Morning
Ok, so what do we see in this one run of one model?
Well, you see the first area of precipitation gathering in the south by Tuesday morning, and general movement toward the north. It remains a very weak area of low pressure, and moves through our region Wednesday, bringing a very brief period of wintry precipitation before going to rain.
The second and far more robust area of low pressure comes right after it, but what do we see? We see a massive storm that cuts well to our west. As a result, the entire region is warm sectored and we rain—a lot.
Ok. Now I want you to take the operational runs and toss them at this point--especially if you are trying to find out how much snow falls in your backyard next week.
This far out, looking at the ensembles is the way to go. Remember that ensembles are just a number of simulations that each use different initial conditions to come to a solution. This helps us account for the inherent errors that come with trying to predict further into the future.
This next map is going to be tough to look at but I’ll guide you through.
Ok, so what do we see in this one run of one model?
Well, you see the first area of precipitation gathering in the south by Tuesday morning, and general movement toward the north. It remains a very weak area of low pressure, and moves through our region Wednesday, bringing a very brief period of wintry precipitation before going to rain.
The second and far more robust area of low pressure comes right after it, but what do we see? We see a massive storm that cuts well to our west. As a result, the entire region is warm sectored and we rain—a lot.
Ok. Now I want you to take the operational runs and toss them at this point--especially if you are trying to find out how much snow falls in your backyard next week.
This far out, looking at the ensembles is the way to go. Remember that ensembles are just a number of simulations that each use different initial conditions to come to a solution. This helps us account for the inherent errors that come with trying to predict further into the future.
This next map is going to be tough to look at but I’ll guide you through.
Focus on the first image. Here, you are looking at the GFS ensemble run for the same Tuesday morning through Friday morning period. This particular map however, shows the various pressure centers that come with each ensemble member and the spread between them. Each red number represents a low pressure center. The closer the numbers are together, the more confidence we have in a solution/pattern evolution because every individual ensemble member is showing something similar even with different starting points.
If you notice the black isobars, this represents that mean, or average of low pressure centers. Unlike the op run, this ensemble mean has a low pressure center closer toward the coast (note how the mean low pressure goes right over Long Island at the end of the image), meaning there is an increased probability of cold air being drawn in and hence, wintry precipitation. However, even in this ensemble run, that track is not ideal for a major winter storm.
You can (hopefully) see this clearly in my second image, which is a pressure anomaly map. Note the mean low over NYC Thursday afternoon, with the door open for the low to end up significantly to our west or east.
It is important to note that due to licensing restrictions I cannot post the truly meaningful data that I see from the european model and its ensembles. The Euro is more bullish, but even the euro and its ensembles do not have an ideal track at this time and I am skeptical of the overall pattern and ability for all the ingredients to come together for a major event.
Again, this far out, much can change, but for right now this is merely something worth casually watching given the potential. Until further notice I am bearish on this threat as well.
Friday
Regardless of what happens, by Friday it looks like everything clears out and we return to nice and seasonable conditions.
The dailies:
Friday night: A chance of rain and snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the upper 20 to low 30s. Chance of precipitation 60%. Little to no accumulation for most. Coating to an inch or two in Litchfield County.
Saturday: Rain and snow ending early, mostly cloudy skies clearing over the course of the day. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain/snow by late evening. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Monday: A chance of rain or snow early. Turning mostly sunny over the course of the day. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with increasing clouds by evening. A chance of snow overnight. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Wednesday: SCW period of interest. Highs near 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday: SCW period of interest. Precipitation ending early and increasing sun by afternoon. Highs near 40. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Friday: Sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Thank you for reading! Our next update will be coming this weekend as we gather additional information on the Monday clipper and period of interest midweek.
As always, don't forget to like our posts, share, ask questions, and become part of the SCW family on both Facebook and Twitter @SouthernCTWX.
-DB
If you notice the black isobars, this represents that mean, or average of low pressure centers. Unlike the op run, this ensemble mean has a low pressure center closer toward the coast (note how the mean low pressure goes right over Long Island at the end of the image), meaning there is an increased probability of cold air being drawn in and hence, wintry precipitation. However, even in this ensemble run, that track is not ideal for a major winter storm.
You can (hopefully) see this clearly in my second image, which is a pressure anomaly map. Note the mean low over NYC Thursday afternoon, with the door open for the low to end up significantly to our west or east.
It is important to note that due to licensing restrictions I cannot post the truly meaningful data that I see from the european model and its ensembles. The Euro is more bullish, but even the euro and its ensembles do not have an ideal track at this time and I am skeptical of the overall pattern and ability for all the ingredients to come together for a major event.
Again, this far out, much can change, but for right now this is merely something worth casually watching given the potential. Until further notice I am bearish on this threat as well.
Friday
Regardless of what happens, by Friday it looks like everything clears out and we return to nice and seasonable conditions.
The dailies:
Friday night: A chance of rain and snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the upper 20 to low 30s. Chance of precipitation 60%. Little to no accumulation for most. Coating to an inch or two in Litchfield County.
Saturday: Rain and snow ending early, mostly cloudy skies clearing over the course of the day. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain/snow by late evening. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Monday: A chance of rain or snow early. Turning mostly sunny over the course of the day. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with increasing clouds by evening. A chance of snow overnight. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Wednesday: SCW period of interest. Highs near 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday: SCW period of interest. Precipitation ending early and increasing sun by afternoon. Highs near 40. Chance of precipitation 30%.
Friday: Sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Thank you for reading! Our next update will be coming this weekend as we gather additional information on the Monday clipper and period of interest midweek.
As always, don't forget to like our posts, share, ask questions, and become part of the SCW family on both Facebook and Twitter @SouthernCTWX.
-DB
