Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
It has been busy. Since shortly after Christmas the large scale pattern has been shifting dramatically, taking the continental US from an absolute blowtorch of a December to an exceptionally active first half of January with multiple major storms with national scale impact. That's not hyperbole. This may be one of the most active winter months the lower 48 has seen in years, and it's not going to let up. We're tracking it all.
Let's dive in.
It has been busy. Since shortly after Christmas the large scale pattern has been shifting dramatically, taking the continental US from an absolute blowtorch of a December to an exceptionally active first half of January with multiple major storms with national scale impact. That's not hyperbole. This may be one of the most active winter months the lower 48 has seen in years, and it's not going to let up. We're tracking it all.
Let's dive in.
Above: European Ensemble (EPS) depiction of surface temperature anomalies between tomorrow and next Thursday. While we're warm now, the first storm is critical to dislodging Arctic cold from Canada which sets the stage for next week's cold and storm opportunities.
Another Multi-hazard Event Tonight & Saturday
We have another storm approaching, and it'll bring a repeat of flood, wind, and coastal flooding potential. This time, the headline hazards have shifted a bit. We expect less rain and wind than the last storm. That said, we have wind advisories for Litchfield and the coastal parts of the southern four counties as well as New London County. Flood watches are up for the entire state, again. We also have coastal flood warnings for the entire shoreline.
Rain moves in between approximately 9pm and 1am from SW to NE. The rain is heaviest between about 3am and 9am, before clearing from west to east tomorrow morning. Scattered showers will be possible into the afternoon. We expect rainfall totals between 1-3", which will cause some scattered flooding issues. We don't expect the major impact that we saw with the last storm, but it's good to be weather aware if you are near a river or stream that is already in flood or action stage.
Wind does not look nearly as bad as the last storm, which had more muted winds compared to potential to begin with. While there are wind advisories, I expect peak wind gusts between 35-45mph around the state, with the highest winds at the coast. I do not expect significant power outages or damaging winds.
Coastal flooding looks to be the most impactful part of this storm. The water rise is poorly timed with the tides tomorrow, and the entire coastline is looking at moderate flooding late tomorrow morning and early afternoon as a result. Incredibly, eastern New England will see a major event just on the heels of the last storm. Parts of Maine are expected to see their worst flooding in a decade, for the second time in the week.
Overall, this is a low to moderate impact storm here in Connecticut, with the main headline being coastal flooding.
As mentioned earlier, this storm is critical to the arrival of deep winter.
Another Multi-hazard Event Tonight & Saturday
We have another storm approaching, and it'll bring a repeat of flood, wind, and coastal flooding potential. This time, the headline hazards have shifted a bit. We expect less rain and wind than the last storm. That said, we have wind advisories for Litchfield and the coastal parts of the southern four counties as well as New London County. Flood watches are up for the entire state, again. We also have coastal flood warnings for the entire shoreline.
Rain moves in between approximately 9pm and 1am from SW to NE. The rain is heaviest between about 3am and 9am, before clearing from west to east tomorrow morning. Scattered showers will be possible into the afternoon. We expect rainfall totals between 1-3", which will cause some scattered flooding issues. We don't expect the major impact that we saw with the last storm, but it's good to be weather aware if you are near a river or stream that is already in flood or action stage.
Wind does not look nearly as bad as the last storm, which had more muted winds compared to potential to begin with. While there are wind advisories, I expect peak wind gusts between 35-45mph around the state, with the highest winds at the coast. I do not expect significant power outages or damaging winds.
Coastal flooding looks to be the most impactful part of this storm. The water rise is poorly timed with the tides tomorrow, and the entire coastline is looking at moderate flooding late tomorrow morning and early afternoon as a result. Incredibly, eastern New England will see a major event just on the heels of the last storm. Parts of Maine are expected to see their worst flooding in a decade, for the second time in the week.
Overall, this is a low to moderate impact storm here in Connecticut, with the main headline being coastal flooding.
As mentioned earlier, this storm is critical to the arrival of deep winter.
Above: the 18z high resolution NAM depicting the storm tonight and tomorrow and the arrival of colder temperatures and possible snow squalls on Sunday.
Sunday-Monday
The massive storm that is cutting to our west and bringing us rain is a key piece to the pattern evolution over the next week at least. In the wake of the storm we see colder air pulled down on Sunday. This is in no way Arctic air, but we'll notice the cold as we see a windy Sunday with wind chills.
The high resolution guidance has been signaling the potential of instability remaining and creating the possibility of snow squalls or snow showers on Sunday. This may lead to some minor accumulation in spots and bears watching.
Cold air continues to advect in on Monday, and that'll be the start of our extended period of cold.
I went back in the weather records, and the guidance is showing most of next week below freezing. You'd think that's normal, but it hasn't been recently. If that were to happen, it'd be the coldest period in CT in nearly three years! To be clear, we're not talking about the kind of cold we saw briefly last February, but rather an extended period where the entire state is near to below freezing the entire day.
This kind of cold opens the window for snow opportunities, but it's an open question whether we produce. The first opportunity is Tuesday/Wednesday.
Sunday-Monday
The massive storm that is cutting to our west and bringing us rain is a key piece to the pattern evolution over the next week at least. In the wake of the storm we see colder air pulled down on Sunday. This is in no way Arctic air, but we'll notice the cold as we see a windy Sunday with wind chills.
The high resolution guidance has been signaling the potential of instability remaining and creating the possibility of snow squalls or snow showers on Sunday. This may lead to some minor accumulation in spots and bears watching.
Cold air continues to advect in on Monday, and that'll be the start of our extended period of cold.
I went back in the weather records, and the guidance is showing most of next week below freezing. You'd think that's normal, but it hasn't been recently. If that were to happen, it'd be the coldest period in CT in nearly three years! To be clear, we're not talking about the kind of cold we saw briefly last February, but rather an extended period where the entire state is near to below freezing the entire day.
This kind of cold opens the window for snow opportunities, but it's an open question whether we produce. The first opportunity is Tuesday/Wednesday.
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Above: The latest European model on the left and GFS on the right. The guidance has been all over the place in not only timing of a possible storm but whether it even happens. This is fairly close in for this kind of flip-flopping.
Tuesday-Wednesday
This one is tricky. The signal for a storm is there. The cold is certainly available, even to the coast. The ensembles while a bit offshore favor some type of snow event Tuesday and/or Wednesday. However, suppression--which in this case would be the shearing out of the storm vorticity (energy) so much that little to nothing can develop close enough to the coast for a real storm--remains on the table.
I do lean toward an all snow event during this period, but this one is far from settled. That's all that can really be said right now. Potential looks more modest rather than a major storm right now, but again, there's too much uncertainty to get into details until at least late Saturday.
Thursday-Saturday
While Thursday looks quiet and cold regardless of what happens with the Tuesday/Wednesday storm opportunity, Friday and Saturday may be active. This is the third storm opportunity we're watching. Once again, there is a strong signal even from long range of something happening. The potential here is explosive, with a weakening block and extremely favorable upper level pattern for coastal storm development. Once again, with cold in place this looks like it could be a snow event.
Tuesday-Wednesday
This one is tricky. The signal for a storm is there. The cold is certainly available, even to the coast. The ensembles while a bit offshore favor some type of snow event Tuesday and/or Wednesday. However, suppression--which in this case would be the shearing out of the storm vorticity (energy) so much that little to nothing can develop close enough to the coast for a real storm--remains on the table.
I do lean toward an all snow event during this period, but this one is far from settled. That's all that can really be said right now. Potential looks more modest rather than a major storm right now, but again, there's too much uncertainty to get into details until at least late Saturday.
Thursday-Saturday
While Thursday looks quiet and cold regardless of what happens with the Tuesday/Wednesday storm opportunity, Friday and Saturday may be active. This is the third storm opportunity we're watching. Once again, there is a strong signal even from long range of something happening. The potential here is explosive, with a weakening block and extremely favorable upper level pattern for coastal storm development. Once again, with cold in place this looks like it could be a snow event.
Above is the EPS 500mb depiction, and if you like blockbuster storms it's a beautiful run at this range. That said, potential does not mean production. We'll just have to wait and see what happens. There will probably be a lot of changes before we lock into a solution around midweek next week.
I'm inclined to say that the next week is critical to the overall winter. If we are going to get close to normal snowfall this year, producing with meaningful snow events in the next week is important.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
I'm inclined to say that the next week is critical to the overall winter. If we are going to get close to normal snowfall this year, producing with meaningful snow events in the next week is important.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
