Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
It was another warm and nice weekend! Yesterday some locations received some much needed rain, but for most, the dry pattern continues. The much of the state continues to be in moderate drought.
Unfortunately for those that have loved our summer of low humidity and seasonable temperatures, deep summer returns with a vengeance. With it, comes more rainfall chances which is great, but there are two opportunities for storms and they may have a severe weather threat with them.
Let's dive in.
It was another warm and nice weekend! Yesterday some locations received some much needed rain, but for most, the dry pattern continues. The much of the state continues to be in moderate drought.
Unfortunately for those that have loved our summer of low humidity and seasonable temperatures, deep summer returns with a vengeance. With it, comes more rainfall chances which is great, but there are two opportunities for storms and they may have a severe weather threat with them.
Let's dive in.
Above: European model ensemble mean of temperatures on Wednesday. This is a strong signal for heat statewide and Thursday may be even hotter.
Monday
Tomorrow is our best rain chance of the week, and the setup is favorable for heavy rainfall as high precipitable water levels and a potent system passing to the north will allow the forcing and moisture to bring rain. However, where we see the best rain is unclear as much of it will be convective. Basically, it'll depend on where you are.
I think the best chance of meaningful rain is in NW CT but again, anyone could see periods of moderate to heavy rain. Temperatures will be lower because of the cloud cover, and that is key to a conditional severe weather threat. We are going to have moisture (so expect high dew points), forcing, and shear in place, but it's unclear whether we get enough instability for storms.
Although the SPC doesn't have CT in a meaningful severe risk zone, we should watch. With significant low level shear there could be a tornado threat in New England. For CT, I think the best chance of strong to severe thunderstorms will be in northern and western sections, but again, this is all conditional on instability tomorrow.
Monday
Tomorrow is our best rain chance of the week, and the setup is favorable for heavy rainfall as high precipitable water levels and a potent system passing to the north will allow the forcing and moisture to bring rain. However, where we see the best rain is unclear as much of it will be convective. Basically, it'll depend on where you are.
I think the best chance of meaningful rain is in NW CT but again, anyone could see periods of moderate to heavy rain. Temperatures will be lower because of the cloud cover, and that is key to a conditional severe weather threat. We are going to have moisture (so expect high dew points), forcing, and shear in place, but it's unclear whether we get enough instability for storms.
Although the SPC doesn't have CT in a meaningful severe risk zone, we should watch. With significant low level shear there could be a tornado threat in New England. For CT, I think the best chance of strong to severe thunderstorms will be in northern and western sections, but again, this is all conditional on instability tomorrow.
Above: the 18z high resolution NAM showing thunderstorms tomorrow morning and afternoon, mostly concentrated in NW CT. The depiction above won't be exact, but it helps to show where the best risk is. Note that in SE CT, the NAM tries to keep most rain away. I don't think that'll happen.
Tuesday-Wednesday
Monday will be cooler than normal due to the rain and clouds, but after that, the heat is on. Tuesday may be the start of an extended interior heatwave. It's crazy to have to say this for the first time on July 17, but a heat wave is defined as three consecutive days of 90+ temperatures.
We should get that and then some.
While the Central US bakes with an astounding heat dome over it, we will see a more peak summer regime settle into place here, though nothing close to the potentially historic heat out west. Parts of Oklahoma may see temperatures over 110!
Tuesday and Wednesday will be hot. The heat will build each day, and to a lesser extent, humidity should too. The dew points after Monday's system should drop for Tuesday, but begin building on Wednesday and becoming oppressive on Thursday. You can see the building heat in the GFS depiction below. Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.
Monday will be cooler than normal due to the rain and clouds, but after that, the heat is on. Tuesday may be the start of an extended interior heatwave. It's crazy to have to say this for the first time on July 17, but a heat wave is defined as three consecutive days of 90+ temperatures.
We should get that and then some.
While the Central US bakes with an astounding heat dome over it, we will see a more peak summer regime settle into place here, though nothing close to the potentially historic heat out west. Parts of Oklahoma may see temperatures over 110!
Tuesday and Wednesday will be hot. The heat will build each day, and to a lesser extent, humidity should too. The dew points after Monday's system should drop for Tuesday, but begin building on Wednesday and becoming oppressive on Thursday. You can see the building heat in the GFS depiction below. Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.
Thursday
I am tempted to declare Thursday a SCW Period of Interest due to heat and potential for severe storms, but I am going to hold off for now because I don't have higher confidence in either yet. For now, Thursday looks like it may be the hottest day of the summer so far. We will see oppressive humidity with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, and high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. If this materializes, we should see air quality alerts and a heat advisory for interior CT.
In addition, while we are likely to see a front pass through the region that would normally bring a chance of thunderstorms, the NWS has also stated there's a possibility of an elevated mixed layer (EML) in the region that day. If these ingredients combine the result would be a very active day in parts of New England. This is definitely worth watching and we'll be on top of it.
I am tempted to declare Thursday a SCW Period of Interest due to heat and potential for severe storms, but I am going to hold off for now because I don't have higher confidence in either yet. For now, Thursday looks like it may be the hottest day of the summer so far. We will see oppressive humidity with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, and high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. If this materializes, we should see air quality alerts and a heat advisory for interior CT.
In addition, while we are likely to see a front pass through the region that would normally bring a chance of thunderstorms, the NWS has also stated there's a possibility of an elevated mixed layer (EML) in the region that day. If these ingredients combine the result would be a very active day in parts of New England. This is definitely worth watching and we'll be on top of it.
Above: the latest (18z) GFS showing the heat index Thursday afternoon. I think at the very least we should expect heat indices near 100 on Thursday and possibly higher depending on the dew point.
Saturday-Sunday
Even though the front passes on Friday, the heat will continue through the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, possibly extending the heat wave. We should see more general afternoon thunderstorm chances Sunday, with lower humidity Saturday/higher humidity Sunday. Nothing to cancel next weekend's plans over.
Tropical Update
Meanwhile in the tropics, the Atlantic is quiet. There are no visible threats for development during the forecast period. This will change, however. I expect things to begin picking up very late July/early August.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Some storms may be severe. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 60%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and hot. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and hot. Highs in the low to mid 90s.
Thursday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s with higher heat indices. Chance of storms in the afternoon, some of which may be severe. Chance of rain 40%.
Friday: Mostly sunny and hot. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Saturday: Partly sunny and hot. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Sunday: Partly sunny and hot with a chance of storms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Saturday-Sunday
Even though the front passes on Friday, the heat will continue through the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, possibly extending the heat wave. We should see more general afternoon thunderstorm chances Sunday, with lower humidity Saturday/higher humidity Sunday. Nothing to cancel next weekend's plans over.
Tropical Update
Meanwhile in the tropics, the Atlantic is quiet. There are no visible threats for development during the forecast period. This will change, however. I expect things to begin picking up very late July/early August.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Some storms may be severe. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 60%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and hot. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and hot. Highs in the low to mid 90s.
Thursday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s with higher heat indices. Chance of storms in the afternoon, some of which may be severe. Chance of rain 40%.
Friday: Mostly sunny and hot. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Saturday: Partly sunny and hot. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Sunday: Partly sunny and hot with a chance of storms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
