Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Back at it again! This most recent cold stretch is reflective of our overall seesawing of the Pacific pattern, which has led to colder than normal air oscillating between being blocked and being ushered into the region. This has taken the place of the persistent pattern that brought us warm and dry weather during much of the fall. The week ahead features this back and forth once again, with rain and wintry precipitation in the forecast, alongside warmer than normal and colder than normal temperatures.
Back at it again! This most recent cold stretch is reflective of our overall seesawing of the Pacific pattern, which has led to colder than normal air oscillating between being blocked and being ushered into the region. This has taken the place of the persistent pattern that brought us warm and dry weather during much of the fall. The week ahead features this back and forth once again, with rain and wintry precipitation in the forecast, alongside warmer than normal and colder than normal temperatures.
Above: the 12z EPS showing the 500mb evolution between Monday and Christmas Day. The key feature here is the Pacific pattern, and where/how amplified the ridging over the western U.S. is. When there is stronger ridging over the west, that opens the door for cold from Canada to flow into the east in the form of troughing. When the troughing is in the west, be prepared for warmer than normal conditions in the east. This is why the "seesaw" metaphor works. Our weather is generally tied to which side the ridge tips.
Monday
The antecedent cold that has dominated our weather the last few days will open the door for wintry precipitation overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning. A weak system is moving toward the region, and as it does, it's getting ripped apart in the overall flow (an issue we've had with winter storms the last few years actually). That means that precipitation looks light, but with temperatures hovering around freezing for most inland spots, we have to watch for minor accumulations and light icing.
Monday
The antecedent cold that has dominated our weather the last few days will open the door for wintry precipitation overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning. A weak system is moving toward the region, and as it does, it's getting ripped apart in the overall flow (an issue we've had with winter storms the last few years actually). That means that precipitation looks light, but with temperatures hovering around freezing for most inland spots, we have to watch for minor accumulations and light icing.
Above: the latest high resolution NAM showing snow and mixed precipitation in much of interior CT after midnight and into tomorrow morning, before temperatures warm above freezing and rain arrives later Monday and into Tuesday. I think the NAM has the right idea here, but I do think it could take a little longer to scour out the cold, particularly in the CT River Valley.
For snow totals, not expecting much. Perhaps a coating for inland areas. The bigger issue is the risk of a glaze of ice with freezing rain. It may be minor overall, but folks have to be careful tomorrow morning when heading out and driving. Give yourself more time to travel, and be prepared for delays and possible cancellations. Winter weather advisories are up for most of the state.
By afternoon, we should all be above freezing, and should see some lingering rain showers.
Tuesday-Friday
The active weather continues, as a follow up boundary/system brings much warmer weather on Tuesday. We will have rain early in the day, with improving conditions by afternoon. Wednesday we cool off some, but remain above normal with quieter weather. That is until our next weather maker arrives late in the day to bring rain to the state. The storm passes to our north, putting us in the warm sector. The rain continues into early Thursday, and in the storm's wake the seesawing continues and we go back to cold filtering into the region. This sets us up for the weekend potential.
For snow totals, not expecting much. Perhaps a coating for inland areas. The bigger issue is the risk of a glaze of ice with freezing rain. It may be minor overall, but folks have to be careful tomorrow morning when heading out and driving. Give yourself more time to travel, and be prepared for delays and possible cancellations. Winter weather advisories are up for most of the state.
By afternoon, we should all be above freezing, and should see some lingering rain showers.
Tuesday-Friday
The active weather continues, as a follow up boundary/system brings much warmer weather on Tuesday. We will have rain early in the day, with improving conditions by afternoon. Wednesday we cool off some, but remain above normal with quieter weather. That is until our next weather maker arrives late in the day to bring rain to the state. The storm passes to our north, putting us in the warm sector. The rain continues into early Thursday, and in the storm's wake the seesawing continues and we go back to cold filtering into the region. This sets us up for the weekend potential.
Above: the 18z GFS depiction of midweek. Tuesday brings rain early. Wednesday brings another storm late but it is too far to the north to bring us wintry precipitation. The storm however brings the baroclinic zone further south, opening the door for a weekend winter storm...if a storm can develop close enough to our region...
Saturday-Sunday
The weekend looks cold at least, but the question is whether we can get a storm. If you are looking for a White Christmas, this is your chance. As you will see in the 18z Euro 500mb vort depiction below, there is a clipper trying to dive down in the wake of our Wednesday/Thursday storm.
Saturday-Sunday
The weekend looks cold at least, but the question is whether we can get a storm. If you are looking for a White Christmas, this is your chance. As you will see in the 18z Euro 500mb vort depiction below, there is a clipper trying to dive down in the wake of our Wednesday/Thursday storm.
The pattern, with the ridge over the western U.S. amplifying, suggests that there will be cold air coming into the eastern part of the country, with a window for this clipper to redevelop at some point after reaching the coast. This gives us a chance at a Miller B type storm developing. However, what looks like a good pattern doesn't guarantee anything, because we have some relatively unfavorable conditions to our northeast (lack of blocking for a storm, and a flow that may be too fast) that could cause a storm to develop too far southeast, too late, or not at all.
I do think some kind of storm develops, and for now I think that there's going to be a chance of snow showers at least given the cold air advecting in, but don't buy into talk that a big storm is definitely coming. There are a lot of hurdles to overcome at this time.
The Pattern Around Christmas
Unlike prior years, where we had our blowtorch temperatures or "Grinch" storms before Christmas, it looks like we have a good shot at avoiding both this year. It looks as if our western pattern will be favorable enough for at least a colder period in the days right up to Christmas. However, the seesaw will tilt again, and we likely have mild conditions lurking right after the Christmas holiday.
Below is the 12z EPS showing 5 day averaged temperature anomalies. Note how we get colder in the days leading to Christmas, followed by warmth returning for at least part of the time before the new year. If you want a snowy landscape, you have to hope for next weekend to produce, or some weak clipper in the flow that cannot be seen right now in the hours before Christmas.
I do think some kind of storm develops, and for now I think that there's going to be a chance of snow showers at least given the cold air advecting in, but don't buy into talk that a big storm is definitely coming. There are a lot of hurdles to overcome at this time.
The Pattern Around Christmas
Unlike prior years, where we had our blowtorch temperatures or "Grinch" storms before Christmas, it looks like we have a good shot at avoiding both this year. It looks as if our western pattern will be favorable enough for at least a colder period in the days right up to Christmas. However, the seesaw will tilt again, and we likely have mild conditions lurking right after the Christmas holiday.
Below is the 12z EPS showing 5 day averaged temperature anomalies. Note how we get colder in the days leading to Christmas, followed by warmth returning for at least part of the time before the new year. If you want a snowy landscape, you have to hope for next weekend to produce, or some weak clipper in the flow that cannot be seen right now in the hours before Christmas.
The Dailies
Monday: Snow and wintry mix inland with rain at the coast, turning to rain everywhere by early afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 70%.
Tuesday: Rain early followed by improving but breezy conditions. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 70% early.
Wednesday: Increasing clouds with rain late. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 80%
Thursday: Rain early followed by improving but breezy conditions. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Temperatures may drop during the day. Chance of rain early 60%.
Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and colder. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 30%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cold with a chance of snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Monday: Snow and wintry mix inland with rain at the coast, turning to rain everywhere by early afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 70%.
Tuesday: Rain early followed by improving but breezy conditions. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 70% early.
Wednesday: Increasing clouds with rain late. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 80%
Thursday: Rain early followed by improving but breezy conditions. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Temperatures may drop during the day. Chance of rain early 60%.
Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and colder. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy and cold with a chance of snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 30%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cold with a chance of snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
