Disc: There really is something mystical about 17 days. This is the fifth time in the last ten years that we have had a streak longer than 12 days w/o measurable pcpn. The ironic thing is none of them ever go longer than 17 days. You can almost set your calendar that it will rain on the 17th day. Anyway, that portion of our pattern is over. Now we get to look forward to much more frequent rains. Whether or not that's a good thing is in the eyes of the beholder. But, in general, for farming and reservoir interests, it is a good thing.
Currently: Not a whole lot going on at this time. However, we can already see where our next rainmaker is coming from. Low pressure near Omaha has a stationary front extending east from it all the way to SNJ. This front will bubble up and down, but generally S of the region, the next few days, and should result in unsettled wx.
Tonight: A good radiative night in general. Clouds from the next sys should not increase until daytime tomorrow. So for lows, I went as low as one can go this time of yr, subtracting about 3 deg from the NBM. Look for lows generally around 50 degrees.
Tomorrow: Clouds increase. Rain should arrive just before sunset, so the majority of the day will be dry. However, w/increasing clouds and flow becoming onshore, I have taken 4 deg or so off the NBM guidance. It will be much cooler, with highs generally only in the low 60s.
Tomorrow night/Sat: Get ready for something we haven't seen in a long time- a soaking, widespread rainfall. Rainfall amounts could be anywhere from 1-3", although I'd go toward the lower end, just because we've been dry lately. That's not real scientific, but it works more often than not. Either way, it's a good, beneficial rainfall for the area. The core of the rain is Fri night, but Sat could be cloudy with drizzle and scattered showers, so will not exactly be a nice day. Get the jackets out if headed out on Sat! I have gone 4-7 deg colder than NBM guidance, as we are clearly in the cold sector and overcast. Look for temps hovering in the low 50s on Sat!
Long Term (Sun and beyond): For now, (and I say for now, because sometimes models will come into agreement one cycle and then the agreement fades away the next), but for now, models have come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the pattern Sun and Mon. Right now it looks like a weak coastal low brings showers to the area Sun, but clears out fast enough that Mon is a decent day. Going with that scenario, I'll lower NBM temps by 6-10 deg for Sun, as too many members do not have any coastal low and are showing p/sunny skies. So look for highs only 50-55, maybe a deg or two warmer than Sat, with periodic showers and gusty winds.
So assuming this evolution is correct, we'll at least offer one decent day for the weekend, that being Memorial Day itself. Assuming skies clear, and we downslope, I feel confident going a couple deg warmer than NBM guidance and going with highs of 70-75 with plenty of sun.
For Tuesday, temp guidance is generally accepted w/just a few local tweaks. Looks like a good day, w/a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the mid 70s. A weak front approaches late Tue, but for now, I'll keep any showers to a very slight chance and restrict it to Tue night, so the day looks fine.
Once again on Wed, I have generally accepted temp guidance w/a few tweaks here and there. We continue the trend of a bit warmer each day- looking at mid to upper 70s. Humidity should be on the increase, and w/an approaching frontal zone, I've introduced scattered showers & storms late in the day.
For Thu, I've lowered temp guidance by a couple deg, due to my expectation that it will be cloudier than models predict. We're way out here, but this looks like a typical unsettled late spring or summer day, where there is a frontal boundary nearby, so any AM sun quickly destabilizes the atmosphere, and the front, combined with any sea breeze boundaries, initiates scattered to numerous showers and t-storms. Highs should be sim to those of Wed- in the mid to upper 70s.
Long Range: Unsettled conditions could linger for 5-7 days beyond this fcst period, though it obviously won't rain all the time. After that, there could be a 3-5 day heat ridge, followed by cooler wx. Nothing too atypical heading into June.
Now, let's take a graphical look at weather systems affecting the area as we head into the weekend. First, let's look at Friday's system, and you can see a good slug of rain Friday night, esp on the S coast, but really the whole state can get good rains.
Currently: Not a whole lot going on at this time. However, we can already see where our next rainmaker is coming from. Low pressure near Omaha has a stationary front extending east from it all the way to SNJ. This front will bubble up and down, but generally S of the region, the next few days, and should result in unsettled wx.
Tonight: A good radiative night in general. Clouds from the next sys should not increase until daytime tomorrow. So for lows, I went as low as one can go this time of yr, subtracting about 3 deg from the NBM. Look for lows generally around 50 degrees.
Tomorrow: Clouds increase. Rain should arrive just before sunset, so the majority of the day will be dry. However, w/increasing clouds and flow becoming onshore, I have taken 4 deg or so off the NBM guidance. It will be much cooler, with highs generally only in the low 60s.
Tomorrow night/Sat: Get ready for something we haven't seen in a long time- a soaking, widespread rainfall. Rainfall amounts could be anywhere from 1-3", although I'd go toward the lower end, just because we've been dry lately. That's not real scientific, but it works more often than not. Either way, it's a good, beneficial rainfall for the area. The core of the rain is Fri night, but Sat could be cloudy with drizzle and scattered showers, so will not exactly be a nice day. Get the jackets out if headed out on Sat! I have gone 4-7 deg colder than NBM guidance, as we are clearly in the cold sector and overcast. Look for temps hovering in the low 50s on Sat!
Long Term (Sun and beyond): For now, (and I say for now, because sometimes models will come into agreement one cycle and then the agreement fades away the next), but for now, models have come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the pattern Sun and Mon. Right now it looks like a weak coastal low brings showers to the area Sun, but clears out fast enough that Mon is a decent day. Going with that scenario, I'll lower NBM temps by 6-10 deg for Sun, as too many members do not have any coastal low and are showing p/sunny skies. So look for highs only 50-55, maybe a deg or two warmer than Sat, with periodic showers and gusty winds.
So assuming this evolution is correct, we'll at least offer one decent day for the weekend, that being Memorial Day itself. Assuming skies clear, and we downslope, I feel confident going a couple deg warmer than NBM guidance and going with highs of 70-75 with plenty of sun.
For Tuesday, temp guidance is generally accepted w/just a few local tweaks. Looks like a good day, w/a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the mid 70s. A weak front approaches late Tue, but for now, I'll keep any showers to a very slight chance and restrict it to Tue night, so the day looks fine.
Once again on Wed, I have generally accepted temp guidance w/a few tweaks here and there. We continue the trend of a bit warmer each day- looking at mid to upper 70s. Humidity should be on the increase, and w/an approaching frontal zone, I've introduced scattered showers & storms late in the day.
For Thu, I've lowered temp guidance by a couple deg, due to my expectation that it will be cloudier than models predict. We're way out here, but this looks like a typical unsettled late spring or summer day, where there is a frontal boundary nearby, so any AM sun quickly destabilizes the atmosphere, and the front, combined with any sea breeze boundaries, initiates scattered to numerous showers and t-storms. Highs should be sim to those of Wed- in the mid to upper 70s.
Long Range: Unsettled conditions could linger for 5-7 days beyond this fcst period, though it obviously won't rain all the time. After that, there could be a 3-5 day heat ridge, followed by cooler wx. Nothing too atypical heading into June.
Now, let's take a graphical look at weather systems affecting the area as we head into the weekend. First, let's look at Friday's system, and you can see a good slug of rain Friday night, esp on the S coast, but really the whole state can get good rains.
Next, here is the GFS valid midday Sunday. It has a very weak and disorganized coastal low. The GGEM and ECMWF are stronger, and the fcst already leans that way.
Anyway, that's all for now! Take care and see you next week!
-GP!
-GP!
