SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WEATHER
  • Home
  • Forecaster Discussion
  • SCW Social Media Hub
  • SCW Facebook
  • About Us/Contact Us

...AFTER A WARM WEEK, A GLOOMY, COOL MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE...

5/27/2021

Comments

 
Disc: There really is something mystical about 17 days.  This is the fifth time in the last ten years that we have had a streak longer than 12 days w/o measurable pcpn.  The ironic thing is none of them ever go longer than 17 days.  You can almost set your calendar that it will rain on the 17th day.  Anyway, that portion of our pattern is over.   Now we get to look forward to much more frequent rains.  Whether or not that's a good thing is in the eyes of the beholder.  But, in general, for farming and reservoir interests, it is a good thing.

Currently: Not a whole lot going on at this time.  However, we can already see where our next rainmaker is coming from.  Low pressure near Omaha has a stationary front extending east from it all the way to SNJ.  This front will bubble up and down, but generally S of the region, the next few days, and should result in unsettled wx.

Tonight: A good radiative night in general.  Clouds from the next sys should not increase until daytime tomorrow.  So for lows, I went as low as one can go this time of yr, subtracting about 3 deg from the NBM.  Look for lows generally around 50 degrees.

Tomorrow: Clouds increase.  Rain should arrive just before sunset, so the majority of the day will be dry.  However, w/increasing clouds and flow becoming onshore, I have taken 4 deg or so off the NBM guidance.  It will be much cooler, with highs generally only in the low 60s.

Tomorrow night/Sat: Get ready for something we haven't seen in a long time- a soaking, widespread rainfall.  Rainfall amounts could be anywhere from 1-3", although I'd go toward the lower end, just because we've been dry lately.  That's not real scientific, but it works more often than not.  Either way, it's a good, beneficial rainfall for the area.  The core of the rain is Fri night, but Sat could be cloudy with drizzle and scattered showers, so will not exactly be a nice day.  Get the jackets out if headed out on Sat! I have gone 4-7 deg colder than NBM guidance, as we are clearly in the cold sector and overcast.  Look for temps hovering in the low 50s on Sat!

Long Term (Sun and beyond): For now, (and I say for now, because sometimes models will come into agreement one cycle and then the agreement fades away the next), but for now, models have come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the pattern Sun and Mon.  Right now it looks like a weak coastal low brings showers to the area Sun, but clears out fast enough that Mon is a decent day.  Going with that scenario, I'll lower NBM temps by 6-10 deg for Sun, as too many members do not have any coastal low and are showing p/sunny skies.  So look for highs only 50-55, maybe a deg or two warmer than Sat, with periodic showers and gusty winds.

So assuming this evolution is correct, we'll at least offer one decent day for the weekend, that being Memorial Day itself.  Assuming skies clear, and we downslope, I feel confident going a couple deg warmer than NBM guidance and going with highs of 70-75 with plenty of sun.

For Tuesday, temp guidance is generally accepted w/just a few local tweaks.  Looks like a good day, w/a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the mid 70s.  A weak front approaches late Tue, but for now, I'll keep any showers to a very slight chance and restrict it to Tue night, so the day looks fine.

Once again on Wed, I have generally accepted temp guidance w/a few tweaks here and there.  We continue the trend of a bit warmer each day- looking at mid to upper 70s.  Humidity should be on the increase, and w/an approaching frontal zone, I've introduced scattered showers & storms late in the day.  

For Thu, I've lowered temp guidance by a couple deg, due to my expectation that it will be cloudier than models predict.  We're way out here, but this looks like a typical unsettled late spring or summer day, where there is a frontal boundary nearby, so any AM sun quickly destabilizes the atmosphere, and the front, combined with any sea breeze boundaries, initiates scattered to numerous showers and t-storms.  Highs should be sim to those of Wed- in the mid to upper 70s.

Long Range: Unsettled conditions could linger for 5-7 days beyond this fcst period, though it obviously won't rain all the time.  After that, there could be a 3-5 day heat ridge, followed by cooler wx.  Nothing too atypical heading into June.

Now, let's take a  graphical  look at weather systems affecting the area as we head into the weekend.  First, let's look at Friday's system, and you can see a good slug of rain Friday night, esp on the S coast, but really the whole state can get good rains.

​
Picture
Next, here is the GFS valid midday Sunday.  It has a very weak and disorganized coastal low.  The GGEM and ECMWF are stronger, and the fcst already leans that way.

​
Picture
Anyway, that's all for now! Take care and see you next week!
-GP!
Comments

    Archives

    June 2025
    May 2025
    April 2025
    March 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014

    Categories

    All
    Summer Forecast
    Tropical Weather
    Winter Forecast

    Authors

    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

Picture
Copyright Southern Connecticut Weather 2018, all rights reserved. 
For website related inquiries, email us at [email protected]

Privacy Policy/Terms of Service