Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
Well, this weekend was a torch. There's no other way to put it. We've seen an extended break from winter-like conditions, and with the exception of that extraordinary thundersleet event, there has been little to no snow since mid December.
Connecticut is a divided state. During this time of year you can have the winter lovers and winter haters. Today was easily the best day for winter haters. Unfortunately for our winter hating friends, we have not turned the corner toward spring. This week will feature a gradual transition (finally) toward more seasonable conditions.
Well, this weekend was a torch. There's no other way to put it. We've seen an extended break from winter-like conditions, and with the exception of that extraordinary thundersleet event, there has been little to no snow since mid December.
Connecticut is a divided state. During this time of year you can have the winter lovers and winter haters. Today was easily the best day for winter haters. Unfortunately for our winter hating friends, we have not turned the corner toward spring. This week will feature a gradual transition (finally) toward more seasonable conditions.
Above is the Euro Ensemble showing the 500mb pattern. The image moves quickly, but you can see the pattern change occurring over the course of the week There is ridging over the eastern US that gives way to a troughing pattern. That is reflected below, when looking at absolute torch 850mb temperatures giving way to much colder anomalies. That will factor into the end of the week.
Monday-Wednesday
This period is a bit unsettled, but nothing too bad. Tomorrow looks dry and partly sunny, and it will feel much closer to normal with temperatures falling back to the upper 30s to low 40s for most. Clouds will increase over the course of the day, and while much of Tuesday is looking dry, by the evening we'll see a warm front close into the area and bring the potential for rain showers .
Depending on how quickly the unsettled weather departs, Wednesday should be a nice and mild day.
Thursday-Friday
Thursday looks cooler and unsettled, as an area of low pressure tracks to our north. At this time, it looks like a rain maker, but we'll keep an eye on it in case there is some wintry precipitation on the front end. I doubt that happens--the cold will not have pushed deep enough. It will be windy to end the week, and Thursday looks breezy.
In the wake of the storm, winter returns. Along with gusty winds, we will see a strong push of colder air that will make it tough for inland temperatures to reach freezing on Friday. This is important for the weekend.
This period is a bit unsettled, but nothing too bad. Tomorrow looks dry and partly sunny, and it will feel much closer to normal with temperatures falling back to the upper 30s to low 40s for most. Clouds will increase over the course of the day, and while much of Tuesday is looking dry, by the evening we'll see a warm front close into the area and bring the potential for rain showers .
Depending on how quickly the unsettled weather departs, Wednesday should be a nice and mild day.
Thursday-Friday
Thursday looks cooler and unsettled, as an area of low pressure tracks to our north. At this time, it looks like a rain maker, but we'll keep an eye on it in case there is some wintry precipitation on the front end. I doubt that happens--the cold will not have pushed deep enough. It will be windy to end the week, and Thursday looks breezy.
In the wake of the storm, winter returns. Along with gusty winds, we will see a strong push of colder air that will make it tough for inland temperatures to reach freezing on Friday. This is important for the weekend.
Above the 18z GFS depiction of the weekend. All of the guidance has a signal for a strong storm to approach the area. Whether it is mostly rain or mostly wintry remains to be seen.
Saturday-Sunday
I'm not ready to declare this a period of interest, but there is a strong signal that a strong storm will develop in the Midwest and traverse the region. Now, there's a lot to unpack here. First, there looks to be cold air in place. That means that we're seeing the models show a period of snow statewide at the start on Saturday morning. However, the guidance has also been consistent in tracking a strong surface low to the north or west of the state, that means that we'd change over to rain or mixed precipitation. There is a lot of uncertainty that remains--including whether we see a trend toward a stronger coastal low, how deep the cold air is during the duration of the storm, and timing. Stay tuned--regardless of whether this is rain or snow, this may be a significant storm.
Sunday looks cold in the wake of the storm, with the potential for snow showers and continued breezy conditions.
The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Breezy. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday: Partly cloudy, colder, and breezy. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Saturday: Chance of rain and/or snow. Windy. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 80%.
Sunday: Decreasing clouds with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the low 30s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Saturday-Sunday
I'm not ready to declare this a period of interest, but there is a strong signal that a strong storm will develop in the Midwest and traverse the region. Now, there's a lot to unpack here. First, there looks to be cold air in place. That means that we're seeing the models show a period of snow statewide at the start on Saturday morning. However, the guidance has also been consistent in tracking a strong surface low to the north or west of the state, that means that we'd change over to rain or mixed precipitation. There is a lot of uncertainty that remains--including whether we see a trend toward a stronger coastal low, how deep the cold air is during the duration of the storm, and timing. Stay tuned--regardless of whether this is rain or snow, this may be a significant storm.
Sunday looks cold in the wake of the storm, with the potential for snow showers and continued breezy conditions.
The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Breezy. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday: Partly cloudy, colder, and breezy. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Saturday: Chance of rain and/or snow. Windy. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 80%.
Sunday: Decreasing clouds with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the low 30s.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
