Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Sorry for the late post. It has been a busy day.
At least the weather has been quiet!
Today is day two of the heat wave, with most inland locations hitting 90 or higher and even Bridgeport and New Haven reaching 90. Tomorrow should make the heat wave official in most spots but we will go beyond a three day heat wave.
Things look quiet so let's dive in before talking about the tropics!
Sorry for the late post. It has been a busy day.
At least the weather has been quiet!
Today is day two of the heat wave, with most inland locations hitting 90 or higher and even Bridgeport and New Haven reaching 90. Tomorrow should make the heat wave official in most spots but we will go beyond a three day heat wave.
Things look quiet so let's dive in before talking about the tropics!
Above: the European model depiction of the 500mb pattern tomorrow afternoon. Note the ridging over the region and troughing starting to dive down in the Midwest. This will bring us continued heat this week, with a chance of rain and storms Wednesday and Thursday.
Tuesday-Thursday
There's no need to drum up suspense here. The forecast for this period looks like standard August. Yes, the period will be hot and each day should get most spots into the 90s, but generally each day is looking ok with Tuesday dry, Wednesday bringing a chance of afternoon thunderstorms, and Thursday--when we expect a front to arrive--bringing a greater chance of thunderstorms, clouds, and rain. Some guidance is more aggressive bringing rain, but I am not. Some towns may make it through this period with little precipitation. Even with the heat, moisture looks limited along with some other severe storm ingredients, so I am not expecting severe thunderstorms outside of anything isolated.
Wednesday should bring a 30-40% chance of storms, while Thursday brings a 50% chance of storms. Highs in the low to mid 90s each day for most.
Tuesday-Thursday
There's no need to drum up suspense here. The forecast for this period looks like standard August. Yes, the period will be hot and each day should get most spots into the 90s, but generally each day is looking ok with Tuesday dry, Wednesday bringing a chance of afternoon thunderstorms, and Thursday--when we expect a front to arrive--bringing a greater chance of thunderstorms, clouds, and rain. Some guidance is more aggressive bringing rain, but I am not. Some towns may make it through this period with little precipitation. Even with the heat, moisture looks limited along with some other severe storm ingredients, so I am not expecting severe thunderstorms outside of anything isolated.
Wednesday should bring a 30-40% chance of storms, while Thursday brings a 50% chance of storms. Highs in the low to mid 90s each day for most.
Above: the 18z European model depiction of Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday doesn't have much activity, but Thursday looks more active as the front approaches. Each day still looks hot and mostly dry.
Friday-Monday
If you thought there was no suspense for the start of the week, there's even less for the end of the week! The front doesn't do a whole heck of a lot of cooling, we probably break our heat wave on a sunny and dry Friday before more 90 degree weather advances this coming weekend. With ridging back in place, the period is looking sunny, dry, and hot. Dog days of summer indeed. At least the humidity isn't likely to be anything like what we saw in July.
Friday should have highs in the mid to upper 80s, while Saturday through Monday should have highs in the low to mid 90s for most.
With this ridge in place however, what comes after it looks increasingly important to what happens in the tropics. More below...
Friday-Monday
If you thought there was no suspense for the start of the week, there's even less for the end of the week! The front doesn't do a whole heck of a lot of cooling, we probably break our heat wave on a sunny and dry Friday before more 90 degree weather advances this coming weekend. With ridging back in place, the period is looking sunny, dry, and hot. Dog days of summer indeed. At least the humidity isn't likely to be anything like what we saw in July.
Friday should have highs in the mid to upper 80s, while Saturday through Monday should have highs in the low to mid 90s for most.
With this ridge in place however, what comes after it looks increasingly important to what happens in the tropics. More below...
Above: the 18z European model depiction of the 500mb pattern for the end of the week. Note in the bottom right corner that Erin begins moving into the frame. What's happening in our region is critical to what happens eventually.
Tropical Update
We now have Tropical Storm Erin, which is thousands of miles away from the U.S. coastline. Here is the current official forecast, hot off the presses.
Tropical Update
We now have Tropical Storm Erin, which is thousands of miles away from the U.S. coastline. Here is the current official forecast, hot off the presses.
First--there is no reason to panic. The doom model runs that you may have seen online are just that--shared for clicks and often without context or real analysis. The edge of predictability for the exact track is about 5-7 days, and the average track error for each day grows significantly. This remains worth a casual eye.
The setup is complex, but straightforward in a sense. A big ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic will steer Erin to the west over the next 5 days. By the time we get to Friday, the guidance shows the ridge breaking down some, with a weakness developing near the Antilles. That weakness would allow Erin to start turning northward.
As that's happening, the pattern over our region becomes critical when we move into next week. The guidance generally has a big trough dive out of Canada, which would fully recurve Erin in the open sea or threaten Atlantic Canada. How strong this trough is we don't know and won't know for a while. If it's stronger, it's an easy recurve well east of the coast. If it's not, then we go from a casual eye to closely watching.
The setup is complex, but straightforward in a sense. A big ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic will steer Erin to the west over the next 5 days. By the time we get to Friday, the guidance shows the ridge breaking down some, with a weakness developing near the Antilles. That weakness would allow Erin to start turning northward.
As that's happening, the pattern over our region becomes critical when we move into next week. The guidance generally has a big trough dive out of Canada, which would fully recurve Erin in the open sea or threaten Atlantic Canada. How strong this trough is we don't know and won't know for a while. If it's stronger, it's an easy recurve well east of the coast. If it's not, then we go from a casual eye to closely watching.
This is a good reminder that we're entering the peak of hurricane season and it is better to have a plan and be prepared now than wait for a potential threat.
We are not guaranteed an easy recurve here, even though the odds of a direct impact look low.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
We are not guaranteed an easy recurve here, even though the odds of a direct impact look low.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
