Good afternoon from SCW!
It's hard to believe that we're about halfway through June, and so far, things have been mostly quiet. This pattern will continue, with mostly dry conditions expected through the forecast period. This is the last weekend of spring, and right on cue we're watching increasing signals for heat by the end of the week and official start of summer. Let's dive in!
It's hard to believe that we're about halfway through June, and so far, things have been mostly quiet. This pattern will continue, with mostly dry conditions expected through the forecast period. This is the last weekend of spring, and right on cue we're watching increasing signals for heat by the end of the week and official start of summer. Let's dive in!
The image above shows the temperature departure in the northeast so far this month. We have been squarely near normal, but that will likely change by the end of the week. We have also been drier than normal, making this allergy season a bit more rough for some!
Monday-Wednesday
Expect plenty of sun and relatively comfortable temperatures. All week, high pressure is expected to dominate. However, for the first half of the week, the upper level pattern is such that temperatures should be held in check by a more amplified pattern that puts the bulk of the heat over the Midwest. Some locations in the upper Midwest may be approaching the upper 90s during this part of the week!
Monday-Wednesday
Expect plenty of sun and relatively comfortable temperatures. All week, high pressure is expected to dominate. However, for the first half of the week, the upper level pattern is such that temperatures should be held in check by a more amplified pattern that puts the bulk of the heat over the Midwest. Some locations in the upper Midwest may be approaching the upper 90s during this part of the week!
Here's the latest GFS above. Note how the ridging is centered over the central US during the early to middle part of the week, with a cutoff low in the south. That should keep our temperatures seasonable if not a touch below normal. The first half of the week should be quiet. Notice how the ridge and higher heights shift towards the region by the latter half of the week. That's where we begin to see things look and feel more summery.
Thursday-Friday
The latter half of the workweek looks fine as well, but we will see slightly higher chances of some stray showers. Despite the increasing precipitation chances, both days look partly to mostly sunny. Temperatures and humidity will be on the rise, and we could be seeing inland temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s by Friday, setting the stage for what may be our first heat wave.
Saturday-Sunday
To recap, a heat wave is defined as three consecutive days of 90 or higher temperatures. We may get there for the first time this year on Friday-Sunday, but I think the odds right now are 50/50.
Things depend heavily on the placement and progression of a cold front. Saturday and Sunday look hot and humid, but there could be some popup showers and storms that would keep temperatures down. Currently, it looks like the front may wait for later Sunday or early Monday, which would increase the chances of heat building over the region, but we'll keep watching to better fine tune the timing of the front.
Thursday-Friday
The latter half of the workweek looks fine as well, but we will see slightly higher chances of some stray showers. Despite the increasing precipitation chances, both days look partly to mostly sunny. Temperatures and humidity will be on the rise, and we could be seeing inland temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s by Friday, setting the stage for what may be our first heat wave.
Saturday-Sunday
To recap, a heat wave is defined as three consecutive days of 90 or higher temperatures. We may get there for the first time this year on Friday-Sunday, but I think the odds right now are 50/50.
Things depend heavily on the placement and progression of a cold front. Saturday and Sunday look hot and humid, but there could be some popup showers and storms that would keep temperatures down. Currently, it looks like the front may wait for later Sunday or early Monday, which would increase the chances of heat building over the region, but we'll keep watching to better fine tune the timing of the front.
Above is the European ensemble for the end of the week and weekend. Note that the 850mb temperature anomalies center themselves over the region before the cold front pushes into the region. It doesn't necessarily mean we'll reach our heating potential, but it is a fairly robust signal for a summery start to official summer!
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s at the shoreline.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with increasing humidity. Highs in the mid 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s at the shoreline.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid inland. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland with highs in the low to mid 80s at the shoreline. Chance of showers 20%.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Hot and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland with highs in the mid to upper 80s at the shoreline. Chance of showers 20%.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms late. Hot and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland with highs in the mid to upper 80s at the shoreline. Chance of rain 50%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
One of these days I will get to that tropical outlook! Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s at the shoreline.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with increasing humidity. Highs in the mid 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s at the shoreline.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid inland. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland with highs in the low to mid 80s at the shoreline. Chance of showers 20%.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Hot and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland with highs in the mid to upper 80s at the shoreline. Chance of showers 20%.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms late. Hot and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland with highs in the mid to upper 80s at the shoreline. Chance of rain 50%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
One of these days I will get to that tropical outlook! Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
