Southern Connecticut Weather
  • Home
  • Forecaster Discussion
  • SCW Social Media Hub
  • SCW Facebook
  • About Us/Contact Us

...ANOTHER STORM BEARING DOWN ON THE STATE...

10/28/2021

Comments

 
Nice, crisp fall wx across the area will give way to yet another storm system.  As the pattern slowly transitions to a cooler one, there is increasing uncertainty beginning midweek.

Currently: The old nor'easter is way out to sea now, about 700 mi E of ACK.  High pressure is ridging right along the east coast.  The next storm is located near Springfield, MO.

Tonight: Generally clear, although clouds may begin to increase later at night, esp in SW CT.   There really isn't any reason to deviate from guidance, given not much radiational cooling and not much advection, although I might go a deg warmer along the S coast and in the cities.  Lows mostly 40-45.

Tomorrow: Clouds increase, but I think we get thru the day dry.  This storm evolves differently than the last one.  Winds increase before the rain arrives.  Gusts could reach 40-45 MPH later tomorrow into tomorrow evening.  Unlike the last storm, the strongest winds are in SW CT.  With clouds around, I'll go a few deg below guidance.  Chilly, with highs only 50-55.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: A shot of steady rain arrives tomorrow night for a few hrs.  Rain could be heavy at times.  Then, into Sat, the rain will transition to showers and even t-storms.  Coverage should be high, however, thru the day Sat, w/like 60% coverage.  Will Still go a few deg below guidance Sat, due to clouds and rain.  Highs generally near 60.

Long Term: Sun and beyond- Main problems are the beginning and end of the long term period, w/some nice wx in between.

Sun: Unfortunately, with the upper level low still spinning overhead, some showers and storms will still be around.  We should continue w/60% coverage Sat night until around midnight.  Then Sun morning starts sunny.  The sun will self-destruct the atmosphere and destabilize.   Expect around 30% coverage showers and storms Sun afternoon. I'll still go a few deg below guidance for Sun's highs- generally near 60, although some places along I 91 could be a few deg warmer.

Mon: Nice fall day as the storm finally departs.  Sunshine and highs in the low 60s.  Guidance temps accepted as is.

Tue: I went below guidance here, about 5 deg There has been a tendency to push the cold front thru fast.  The main question is whether or not precip will accompany the front.  Guidance is not in great agreement.  There is not a ton of moisture with the front.  However, the front is rather strong.  Therefore, I inserted a 30% pop into the fcst.  I think this seems prudent, assessing all the pros and cons.  High temps 55 to 60.

Wed: For temps, went a few deg below guidance, as it doesn't seem to be capturing cold air advection well.  If the front goes thru Tue, then Wed could very well be a fair day in between any systems.  I have deleted any POPs from Wed, and gone mosunny.  Highs only 50-55!

Thu: Disagreement in the models regarding the next sys, but confidence is increasing that some type of coastal will likely pop, as wave spacing has increased.  Therefore, I feel confident raising POPS to about 50% and using that as our baseline for the Thu fcst.  Due to clouds and rain, a good 4-5 deg has been chopped off guidance.  A chilly coastal storm portends.  It is not out of the ? for some snow to mix in later Thu or Fri in the NW hills.  However, this is low conf, and we're at day 7, so it has not been included in the fcst.  High temps generally only near 50!

There could be a real cold shot beyond this sys, w/freezing temps all the way to the S coast and cities! Thereafter, we may rebound to norm or a bit above temp wise for a while, but the very warm wx looks like it is largely done this yr, unless we get a brief surge w/a storm tracking to the west.

I have included two graphics today... the first shows our heavy period of rain Fri night.   The map is valid midnight.  The second graphic shows our cold nor'easter Thu, w/the graphic valid midday.  You can also see the snow line creeping S & E!
Picture
Picture
Anyway, that's all for now, I'll see you next week!

​-GP!
Comments

    Archives

    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014

    Categories

    All
    Tropical Weather
    Winter Forecast

    Authors

    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

Picture
Copyright Southern Connecticut Weather 2018, all rights reserved. 
For website related inquiries, email us at support@southernconnecticutweather.com

Privacy Policy/Terms of Service