Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

As we prepare to turn the page from January to February, the days are getting longer, the average high temperature begins to rise, and we enter a period where big storms can make an appearance. 

This week, I don't see any big storms or torches, but there are two chances for snow as temperatures stay below to near normal. 

Monday
Tomorrow looks ok, as we see dry conditions and mostly cloudy skies increase as the day progresses. We'll be watching a low develop well offshore and to our south develop and move northeast. Temperatures on Monday look seasonable.

Tuesday
If the low decides to make a close approach, it looks like temperatures wouldn't be an issue, leaving any precipitation that falls as snow. However, given how far offshore this low could be, we may not get a whole heck of a lot of anything. This one is a bit dicey, but I don't think the ceiling is particularly high right now. The trend has generally been toward a more westward (and impactful) track, and with the timing of any snow being the predawn to early Tuesday morning hours. 

Right now, I think it will be difficult for areas away from the southeast and eastern portions of CT to see anything meaningful. As a result, I'm going to go with a coating to two inches south and east of I-84. and no accumulation on the other side of that dividing line.

Beware snow lovers, a few ticks west and this is more meaningful. A few ticks east and it's just a cloudy start to your Tuesday. I currently do not expect significant disruptions to travel or school on Tuesday. Stay tuned. 

Above is a GFS depiction for the potential Tuesday event. Some models show more, others show less. I currently lean toward a minor event for some, and nonevent for most. 

Wednesday-Thursday
The middle of the week looks quiet with high pressure in control. Expect seasonable temperatures and fair skies. By Thursday evening we're likely watching to see what comes for the next frontal passage and area of low pressure that may develop and ride the boundary. Which leads us to Friday...

Friday
There's been some hype out there about Friday for a few days now. At this point, it's just hype. As I mentioned above, a front crosses the region and along it we could see an wave of low pressure form and bring snow. The trend has been away from that, but we're far enough out to watch it casually. Stay tuned on that one too. 

The Weekend
Once things are settled on Friday, the weekend looks relatively quiet and cold. Sunday could bring some more light snow, but I'm not ready to start discussing that potential yet given how far out it is. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow by the nighttime hours. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 20%

Tuesday: Chance of snow early with mostly cloudy skies by afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 50%.

Wednesday: Colder with clear skies. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. 

Thursday: Increasing clouds during the afternoon with a chance of rain/snow showers late. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 50%. 

Friday: Chance of rain and snow, otherwise mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of precipitation 50%. 

Saturday: Partly cloudy and cold. Highs in the mid 20s. 

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with chance of snow showers. Chance of precipitation 10%. 

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Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB

​Good morning to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
It’s a beautiful day outside – just a few clouds below us, temps around -65f, and full sunshine. Get out there and enjoy it – don’t forget to bundle up! Oh wait, I forgot I’m at 35,000 feet on a plane and not in Connecticut – guessing my thermometer is just a wee bit off J
 
Anyway, still a beautiful day on tap for today down at ground level – highs should cross the 50 degree mark this afternoon and given that I can currently see the ground out the window (and confirmed by the satellite), we should have mostly sunny skies today with just a couple of clouds rolling by as the day goes on. A truly spectacular day to get some spring skiing in in January, go on a hike, or just enjoy the warmth and sunshine. Enjoy it while it lasts, because as GP alluded to on Tuesday, winter isn’t over just yet.
 
Saturday night - Sunday
 
Weak frontal passage takes place later this evening which will bring a round of showers to the area. Not expecting any heavy rain, but the umbrella might be a good thing to bring along if you’re going to be out late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Should have showers out of the state by the mid-morning at the latest which will set us up for gradual clearing throughout the day. Temps will once again be warm – highs a few degrees on either side of 50 look to be a good bet.
 
Monday-Tuesday­
 
Weak coastal system forms along the frontal boundary that stalls out to our south tomorrow and heads northeast, passing southeast of our area Monday evening into Tuesday morning. While yesterdays models were more enthusiastic about the storm being far enough northwest to bring some snow into the state, the overnight guidance was generally weak enough to keep the system far enough out to sea that we only see some snow showers from an inverted trough feature on the far west flank of the system. However, given the abysmal performance of the models thus far this season and the general trend for storms to move westward at close range this season as the dominant Western Atlantic Ridge(WAR) becomes “recognized” by the guidance, I’m not ready to write this system off just yet. As it stands now, don’t expect anything more than some snow showers and perhaps an inch or two of high-ratio fluff in the spots where any heavier pockets of snow develop, but keep an eye on the forecast as this isn’t that far away from having some impacts to the commute Monday afternoon.
 
Here’s a look at the system on yesterdays midday GFS and the more recent overnight GFS – notice the eastern shift that brings us out of steadier snows.

Otherwise, looks like above normal temps for Monday with highs near 40(Although we’ll likely see temps falling in time for any snow that moves in) and below normal on Tuesday with highs in low to mid 30s.
 
Wednesday-Friday
 
Below normal temps continue for Wednesday as we’re under high pressure – look for sunny skies with highs in the upper 20s. We’ll warm up for Thursday as southwest flow brings warmer air into the state, should see highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
 
Attention is then directed to our next system that will arrive towards the end of the week. As of now, this looks like a messy system that could bring a rain/snow mix to the area, but given we’re a week away and have a storm between now and then we’ll refrain from speculating on that one too much until we get this first system out of the way – one storm at a time is one of the best rules in forecasting. Very generally, looks like we’ll see another followup storm developing on the backside of a frontal passage, but this one has some more energy to work with than our next one as currently modeled. Stay tuned but don’t get too excited yet – a week is forever in model land.

Here's a look at the system on the CMC - as the system strengthens, that rain/snow line is pushed south and eventually we see accumulating snow across the entire state.

​The Dailies
 
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Sunday: A chance of showers, then clearing, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday: A chance of snow in the afternoon, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday: A chance of snow showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 20.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Friday: A chance of rain and snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
 
Have a great weekend and thanks for reading SCW!
-SA

 Climatology alone says that you don't get winter off to a start like we did, with both significant snow and cold, and just end it without a return.  Now, the long range models and teleconnections agree with that assessment.

Currently: Rain event in progress across the state.  Some questions still remain as to how far north the warm front will progress.  Current surface analysis shows the warm front stretching from around the Tappan Zee Bridge, then along the Merritt Parkway to about New Haven, then into Northeastern CT.  This warm front has a sharp thermal boundary along it, with temperature differences of 10 to 15 degrees from one side of the front to the other.  Meanwhile, a cold front was now approaching the Delaware River.  In the warm sector, a squall line of heavy showers and strong winds.  North of the warm front, precipitation was more of a general rainfall.   Other than being a chilly rain versus a warm rain, these temperature differences will not cause a huge problem, since the entire state is safely above freezing.

Rest of Today/Tonight: Rain ends from mid afternoon to rush hour from SW to NE.  Behind the front, temperatures will drop.  The cold front is of polar, not Arctic, origin.  So it will be cold, and even below normal for a couple days, but we will not see the kind of cold we saw earlier this month, at least not this time.  As for low temperatures tonight, guidance is in very good agreement, so I see no reason to differ.  Guidance yields near 30 up North to the upper 30s along the south coast in urban areas.

Tomorrow: On cold air advection days, the cooler guidance has fared better this season.  With this in mind, I'll ride the cooler NAM guidance.  This yields high temperatures near 40 throughout the state.  It' really a typical cold air advection day tomorrow, with temperatures not really moving much during the day.

Tomorrow Night/Thu: Temperatures will plunge tomorrow night, as the core of the cold air moves in.  However, without snow cover and with the air mass not being all that cold, I think temperature guidance is overdoing how cold it will get tomorrow night.  So with that in mind, going a few degrees warmer than all guidance yields lows ranging from the upper teens to the mid 20s.  For Thursday, guidance is in excellent agreement and accepted "as is", which is in the 30-35 degree range across the state- cold, despite plenty of sun.

Long Term- the weekend and beyond: A bit of a roller coaster ride with temperatures is expected, with a bias toward above normal, during this period.  First, after a very cold morning on Friday, high pressure will retreat offshore, temperatures should warm into the upper 30s statewide on Friday, as advection becomes neutral and gradually switches to warm.  On Saturday, the next system will approach.  This system seems quite a bit weaker than what we had today.  However, it will still produce widespread precipitation across the state.  With a weaker system. precipitation will be of longer duration, but much lighter.  Thinking precipitaiton will just get into our SW sections by the end of the day Saturday, and may not be out of the E sections until Sunday night.  Temperatures will warm during the event.  At this time, I will call for all rain from this event, as thermal profiles really are not supportive of anything other than rain.  But only a couple degrees cooler could support some snow or sleet at the very beginning.  Yet another factor going against any frozen precipitation is the fact that dew points are high, so there really isn't even any threat of wet bulb temperatures producing sleet.  Even this far out, the threat of freezing rain seems pretty near zero, since temperatures, even up north, should be several degrees above freezing.  So with this all said, at this point, calling for all rain is the smart thing to do.  As far as high temperatures this weekend, with a weak system (and weak systems not being notorious for rushing warm fronts through, I went below guidance, especially on Sunday, with mid to upper 40s for highs both days.

Another fairly strong push of cold air will move in behind this system.  A clipper system, along with a reinforcing shot of cold air, should bring a shot of light snow to the state Monday night.   Some minor accumulations (a coating to an inch) could be possible with this.  It's not really possible at this juncture to pinpoint who could get coatings, since snow would likely be showery in nautre.  Other than this, generally fair, but cold weather should be expected for Monday and Tuesday.  As for temperatures, expect highs in the upper 30s on Monday, dropping to near 30 by Tuesday.  

Long Range: The pattern should begin the process of transitioning to one which favors cold in the East during the first week of February.  The details on exactly when this pattern flips and whether or not it flips with a bang, so to speak, are still to be resolved, but suffice it to say, the pattern after the flip will not resemble anything like we have seen recently, and will resemble more what we saw in late December and early January.  Anyway, that's enough verbiage.  Now let's look at some of the upcoming weather events in map form.  First, let's take a look at the weeeknd system.  You can see from the map below that this is a very weak low over upstate NY.  This favors light, steady precipitaiton, and really does not favor any frozen precipitation, unless there is some cold air to start, and there really isn't this time.

​

Next, we'll take a look at the next system- a clipper with a strong shot of cold air behind it- slated for Monday and Monday night.  This has the potential to drop very minor accumulations of snow, but like I said, it will be next to impossible to pinpoint exactly where any accumulations would be at this point.

​

Anyway, that's all for now! Enjoy the rest of your week!

-GP!

Good evening from SCW once again. As we mentioned earlier tonight, we are seeing a trend on the guidance that's resulting in a weaker and warmer system. The two factors are likely related; as the system weakens, we lose the dynamics that were previously created, allowing for warmer air to make its way into the bottom of the column and result in a cold rain for a portion of the event.
As a result, snowfall totals are dropping in portions of the state. In the southeastern corner of the state, we are now expecting mainly rain, with a slushy 1-3" of snow possible at the start and the end of the event. For the middle portion of the state including the western shoreline, we are now expecting 3-6" of snow, mixed with and changing to rain at times especially in the southern zones. In the northern and western portions of the state where confidence is higher in an all snow event and models maintain stronger banding there, we are leaving the forecast as is at 4-8", but I would expect more 4" totals than 8" totals when all is said and done.
Two things are worth highlighting with this revised map. First, model agreement is still very low. The models have still been floating all over the place and there is little consensus on how far inland the warmth will make it and what QPF will look like across portions of the region. Some of the models are now suggesting a dryslot forming in eastern portions of the state which would serve to further limit totals; I'm not sure I buy that just yet but don't be surprised to see a bust in some eastern areas if that comes to fruition. Should the coldest solution we've seen today verify, the original map from last night will be spot on, and should the warmest solution verify, we'd need to pull that 1-3" zone to encompass most of the current 3-6" zone and downgrade the 4-8" zone to 3-6" outside the Litchfield hills, which I think are a relative lock for at least 4". This map attempts to take a middle ground of those extremas, but the end result could be anywhere along the spectrum.
Second, the heaviest of the snow is still expected during the morning commute tomorrow, and even if the net totals are lower across the state, the commute is still going to be rather slow for everyone away from the immediate shoreline and possibly the shoreline as well. Take it very easy on the roads tomorrow morning if you need to travel and leave plenty of extra time to reach your destination. Still would expect to see some closings and delays due to the timing.
We'll update in the morning as needed, until then, stay safe, enjoy the snow, and thank you for reading SCW!
​
-SA

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather…
 
Confidence is increasing in a moderate to high impact event during late Tuesday and much of Wednesday. Significant questions remain regarding accumulation along the shoreline and SE CT

What We Know
This is a complex forecast.

What we have overall is the potential for a period of snow showers or light snow tomorrow in Litchfield County and far northern and western Fairfield County, but the main show is an area of low pressure that will develop and then redevelop to our south tomorrow night into Wednesday.

We know a snow event is coming, and we have a sense of timing (more below). I also have moderate confidence in a moderate to high impact event statewide. 

18z GFS depiction of the snow over the next 48 hours. Note that this isn’t a forecast but merely an illustration of what could happen at the surface.

What We Don’t Know
The biggest thing we don’t know is the extent of warming in the column just above the ground in SE Connecticut. Folks down there have danced this dance before—they’re on the dividing line between a higher accumulation event, and a degree or two of warmth that brings rain instead of snow.

Here, I am torn. Some guidance has warmed the column enough to bring rain to some of coastal Connecticut, and some guidance this evening has brought that warmth to parts of New London County.
 
However, one suite of model runs does not create a trend. In this instance, I am taking a blend of the guidance over the last few days, most notably the GFS, Euro, and RGEM.

Timing
As I mentioned at the start, tomorrow could be wintry in the northern and western part of the state, with snow showers or periods of light snow around during the early afternoon hours. However, it looks like snow will hold off for virtually everyone outside Litchfield County during the day tomorrow. I’m hesitant to say that the evening commute won’t be impacted in the rest of northern CT (particularly Hartford County), but right now, I think for most, the commute is just fine.

RGEM depiction of the snow potential tomorrow. This is a higher resolution model, and one that generally allows us to get a better sense of timing for events.
 
Snow should begin for areas NW to SE over the course of the evening (post sunset) to overnight hours. I think that most are seeing snow fall by 1am. Snow should be falling across the state during the morning hours, with a change to rain or a rain/snow mix in SE CT as the day progresses and temperatures rise above freezing. I expect snow to begin tapering off during the late morning hours, but light snow will likely to continue to fall in spots over the afternoon hours.

Impact

Overall, this is likely to be one of our higher impact events because of the timing. I expect widespread cancellations on Wednesday, as crews are trying to plow the roads and snow continues to fall. Even in SE Connecticut, where there is a risk of rain mixing in, I expect the snow falling in the morning hours to cause delays or cancellations.
 
I am keeping the 2-4 contour for SE Connecticut, but I believe many in that zone will be on the lower end. There is a lot of bust potential there in both directions. Some could end up with just a coating, and if the column is colder, others could end up with more than 4". It's more of a roll of the dice there than I'd like.

​For the rest of the state, I am more confident in the snow forecast. I believe that 4-8 inches will fall with the most being in northern and western portions of the state. It is not out of the question that isolated spots in Litchfield County get an inch or two more than our max, but it was not worth introducing another snowfall accumulation zone. 

Aside from that, there may be a period of moderate to heavier snows during the morning, but nothing that looks overwhelming as there are questions over the extent of banding and snow growth efficiency.
 
I don’t think wind is a concern but the snow may be of a heavier consistency. Without wind though I do not expect widespread power outages.
 
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
 
Thank you for reading SCW. 
 
-DB