Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

Grade time is here! 

There's no rest for the weary, as we're already tracking another potential storm for the end of the work week, but in order for us to get better--and hold ourselves accountable--we need to grade our work. 

Grading can't happen before the storm, and definitely not during. We review the data after the storm has passed and grade ourselves based on our final exam--all the major elements of our final call forecast.

​Time to review... 

Above: Aqua -- MODIS image of the northeast from January 30, 2022. The blizzard of 2022 dumped upwards of 30 inches in Mass and 26 inches in CT. 

Timing
Looking back, we did a very nice job throughout this aspect of the forecast. We predicted onset to take place between 9-11pm, and were within an hour of that for southern CT. We accurately called the earlier morning hours for moderate snow to push in, and although it wasn't actually stated on our website version (oversight on my part), we saw the worst of the storm from 10am-4pm (which was mentioned on FB). Excellent job here. 

Grade: A

Winds/Power Outages
Another excellent job. We called for maximum wind gusts between 35-45mph inland and 40-55mph at the shoreline. We said it'd be enough for near blizzard to blizzard conditions to but not enough for widespread damage, and that was accurate. We did think outages would be scattered, and I don't recall seeing any serious outages. If we could go back, maybe we'd probably go with isolated outages, but we were close enough. 

We saw a peak gust of 45mph in Torrington, which was impressive, and peak gusts of 48 in New Haven, 46 in Groton, and 66 at a Wxflow station in New London. That last gust was not reported by the NWS so it may be elevated or isolated.  

Grade: A

Snow intensity/road conditions
More good stuff. We called for the standard 1-2" per hour and predicted 3-4" rates as well. We were not as specific as we should have been with the latter, but that's fine. Both seemed to verify with a SWS issued for parts of southern CT later in the storm. 

This led to bad road conditions. Over 500 call for assistance on the highways were reported. 

Grade: A 

Snowfall Accumulation
This is the one that really hurt. In what was an otherwise great exam, we got tripped up on the multiple choice section here. You hate to see it, especially since this is the only thing people tend to care about. 

We called the extreme banding. That happened. We called the high ratio snow in the biggest bands. That happened. 

But we busted in the central zone. The forecast of 12-18" was way too high. We think the combination of subsidence due to banding in eastern CT and high winds aloft causing less efficient snow growth led to that forecasting miss.

For the most part, we did well with our 6-12" zone in western CT, but NW CT seemed to underperform. In eastern CT, we did excellent, but there was extreme banding there too, with a place like Tolland ending up with over a foot, but Columbia just a few towns over barely getting 6-7 inches. This was replicated in other parts of the state too. Torrington had 6.5" and 4" in town. Part of Monroe saw barely anything, while there were a 5.6 and 7.5" readings. Norwalk had 6, 7, and 9" totals! 

Killingworth reported 5" while Clinton not too far away reported over 16"! That's an insane gradient, which we predicted, but we don't get credit for predicting how we'll be wrong. 

Looking back, we could have expanded the 6-12" zone through the CT River Valley. Overall, we didn't have a statewide bust here, and as GP notes, trying to forecasting banding in this case was a nearly impossible task, but it was disappointing nonetheless. 

Final not here. SE CT jackpotted! So much for climo! This was your storm!

Grade: C-

Overall impact
We called for a high impact event, and it was. Storms are not just snow totals. The combination of wind, cold, and near blizzard to blizzard conditions made this high impact, along with most snow totals. No, this wasn't high impact everywhere, but in the broad scheme of things there was a high statewide impact. That's what we forecast for. 

In the end, extreme banding and poor snow growth made the difference between a high end and historic event. The storm track met in middle of far west solutions 24 hours earlier and far east solutions day of on the guidance. We saw elongated rather than dual lows which allowed for more efficient snow and banding further east, but not enough for a more consistent shield.

Grade: A-

Final Grade
Overall, we did well. That central zone snowfall bust will haunt me a bit, but it was always a moving target because we knew there would be a lot of winners and losers in the extreme banding. We really nailed the other impacts, but snow accumulations hurt what would have otherwise been a stellar grade for a big ticket event. 

Timing: A
Winds/Power Outages: A
Snow Intensity/Road Conditions: A
Snowfall Accumulation: C- (note this is weighed 1.5x the other factors)
Overall Impact: A-

Final ​Overall grade: B+

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 
​
-DB

Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

On Wednesday when we outlined scenario probabilities, we stated that there wasn't much daylight between a moderate/high impact event and a statewide blockbuster event. Since that time, we saw substantial waffling in the guidance. Yesterday, a westward trend began as the upper level evolution looked far more favorable for an efficient phase, and that trend accelerated last night.

It has been a roller coaster ride rarely seen around here, but with the continued overnight and early morning trend for a closer approach by the winter storm, we now have enough confidence to issue our final call.

It's a doozy. 

At this hour, Winter Storm Warnings are up for the entire state, but it is my expectation given this morning's NWS discussion that the blizzard warnings that are up for coastal Mass will be extended into at least part of CT (most likely coastal and SE CT) at some point.

Regardless of whether you end up in a blizzard warning or not, we expect near blizzard to blizzard conditions (officially 3 consecutive hours of 35+ mph winds/gusts & 1/4 mile visibility) for much of the state (especially eastern areas) during the peak of the storm. 

We are substantially upping our snowfall totals, with 6-12" expected in far western CT, 12-18" for central CT, and 18-24" for eastern CT. 

Let's talk details. 

The Overall Setup
Why are we going big? In essence, the main pieces we were looking at--northern stream, southern stream, and confluence in Canada--all trended enough in spacing and amplitude to allow for a much more efficient phase of the northern and southern streams, creating high confidence in the explosive development of a coastal storm.

Importantly, this also allows for the storm to track further west, rapidly intensify in a near perfect zone for New England, and slow down. That's a classic setup for a blockbuster. 

Animations of the 00z European Model projection of the 500mb (above) and 700mb (below) evolution. These are textbook setups for a major New England storm as both vorts rapidly intensify and close off near of the 40/70 Benchmark. Absolutely textbook. Images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits. 

Timing
We expect some light snow to break out in the state, most likely late morning/early afternoon. As GP noted yesterday, we don't expect much accumulation, but things could bring an inch or so. With cold temperatures that means slick spots are possible on the roads. That said, travel today and tonight should be fine. The time to avoid roads will be around daybreak Saturday, though road conditions will deteriorate in the predawn hours. 

There is likely going to be a break late afternoon and evening before the main event arrives. The outer edges of the storm should arrive between 9-11pm. Note this is subject to change a bit but it doesn't really change things: travel should be ok during the evening. 

Moderate snow will move in during the early morning hours, and by sunrise, much of the state should be seeing moderate snow that is becoming increasingly heavy. 

The late morning and afternoon will be the worst of the storm. This has bounced around a bit, but I think this is the period we see the worst now. We will see heavy snow, strong winds, and some coastal flooding. Travel will be very difficult and near impossible in parts of the state due to very high snowfall rates and wind. Travel is not advised during this time. 

Snow will gradually diminish during the evening, though significant travel issues are expected through at least part of Sunday. 

Above: the current warnings in effect in CT. 

Impacts

Snowfall Accumulation 

Let's start with what everyone cares about. How much snow can be expected in your backyard.

This is a big storm.

Again, we expect 6-12" for western CT, 12-18" for central CT, and 18-24" in eastern CT. While 6-12" storms are a bit more frequent, widespread 12"+ storms are more uncommon than people think and 18"+ is even rarer. In this kind of storm there will be extreme banding. What does this mean? First, it means that there will be "winners and losers". On both the NW and SE of big bands, we will likely see some dry slotting, which could cut down on totals. In the big bands however, we may see very high ratio snow which means big totals that may come outside of our forecast range in localized spots. 

We anticipate a gradient snowfall distribution. The further east you are, the better chance you have of being on the higher end of your snow total zone. The only exception may be extreme SE CT, where you already know your climo. Jackpots there are uncommon for a variety of reasons. Totals are expected to be very high there regardless. 

Even with greater confidence, I must admit that this part is always nerve wracking. You can almost always bank on great snow banding northwest of the best frontogenesis. That's going to be a moving target even during the storm, so while we will be graded on our map, expect the unexpected with such a dynamic storm...in both directions. 

Winds/Power Outages
Since we're using the dreaded B-word for this storm, that means winds are an issue. We expect max wind gusts between 35-45mph inland and 40-55mph at the shoreline. This is enough for near blizzard to blizzard conditions, but not enough in this forecaster's opinion to cause widespread damage. 

As a result, we think power outages are scattered, and most likely to be concentrated in our usual windiest spots and SE CT. 

Snowfall Intensity/Road Conditions
In order to get these high end snow amounts, the extreme banding mentioned above is going to have to drop some serious snowfall rates. The NWS mentions 1-2" of snow per hour in banding in CT, but I think that might be a floor, especially in eastern CT. That's big time.

The standard 1-2" per hour should verify but we could see 3-4" per hour rates at some location in CT during the height of the storm. 

That means roads will be terrible, no matter what our great our plow drivers out there do. If we see the banding that we anticipate, the combination of strong winds, fluffy snow, and high snowfall rates will make travel hazardous to nearly impossible in spots with quick accumulations on the roads and very low visibility. If you need to travel during the height of the storm, be prepared in case you get stuck. I see it every big storm.  
​
Overall Impact
I think there will be surprises with this, but if things hold to our general forecast this is a high end event for CT, especially in eastern and parts of central CT. Fortunately, coastal flooding looks to be minor to moderate and the snowfall type looks to be fluffy and light, diminishing the risk of power outages. One thing not discussed yet is how cold this storm will be. We don't expect mixing and in fact, the cold source for this storm is about as ideal as you can get. 

We will see temperatures drop through the 20s and into the teens tomorrow during the storm. With the wind picking up, we could very well see heavy snow with wind chills near to below zero. Take that into account while you travel. Even though we don't anticipate widespread power outages, today is the day to make sure your generator is working just in case. 

This looks big across a lot of Connecticut, so while there is no need to panic, you do need to be prepared and smart, especially if you need to travel for some reason or have to shovel--people end up in the hospital each year overdoing it shoveling. 

​Bottom Line

• There is high confidence that a major coastal storm will develop and deliver high end impacts to CT, including near-blizzard to blizzard conditions across much of the state. 
  
  
• There will likely be a strong snowfall gradient, and high ratio snow. With high snowfall rates at the peak and strong winds, travel will become very hazardous to nearly impossible late Saturday morning through afternoon before snow tapers off during the evening hours.  
  ​
• Residual widespread travel problems are expected, at least through early Sunday. 

We will continue to provide updates as warranted.  

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 
​
-DB

A winter storm is getting ready to affect our state.  Unfortunately, models are still not in great agreement as to the details of the storm.  A map will be released with this update, but it is likely far from the final solution.

Currently: High pressure currently right along the eastern seaboard is keeping the state cold but dry today.

NWS HAZARDS: A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the Southern tier of counties, as well a Eastern CT.  This is where the highest chances of significant or greater snowfall exist.

Tonight: Temps prob don't fall all that much during the night, due to the combo of SW flow ahead of a cold front and increasing clouds.  I went quite a bit above guidance on temps.  I think most  places will be in the upper 20s at dawn tomorrow.  HRRR hints at some flurries getting into our Western zones by dawn, but I kept the night dry.  If five snow flakes fall, it does not change the gist of the fcst.

Tomorrow: Short range models, in general, have become more aggressive w/pcpn along and behind a cold front tomorrow.  In fact, it would not surprise me if many places see at least a whitening during the day tomorrow.  However, I am not going to focus much on accumulations tomorrow for two reasons.  First, the "main show" is not tomorrow.  Secondly, pcpn will likely be showery in nature, so it could be a day where someone sees an inch and someone does not see a flake.  I do have chance POPs for snow showers in the fcst, and w/a cold ground, a few slick spots are possible.  Pay attn to any SPS from NWS tomorrow in isolated heavier snow showers.  Just as I went above guidance tonight, I went below guidance tomorrow.  Guidance is biased toward "temps have to be warmer during the day than at night", even though there are cases when that is simply not true.  I think temps largely stay steady tomorrow and begin falling during the afternoon.

Now for the fun part... First of all, as I normally like to do, I want to start this section of the disc off w/a little model roundup.

The ECMWF, NAM, and GGEM (as well as it's little sibling the RGEM) are all in pretty good agreement that the state sees a large snowstorm.  If those models are correct, much of the state would see 8-16" of snow.  If the ECMWF is right, portions of E CT could even see up to 20"! However, then there is the GFS model, which would struggle to even get E CT to 6", and only an inch or two in W CT.  The UKMET model, which I usually don't use because it isn't very good, is about 75% closer to the GFS.  So normally, it would be very easy to just label the GFS as an outlier and throw it in the bin.  However, considering that the GFS is one of our better models and has had a really good season, I don't want to just do that.  In addition, models have really been bouncing around a lot.  A 50 mile shift to the west could mean a foot or more for the entire state, while a 50 mile shift to the east and nobody in the state gets significant snow at all.  For that reason, it is prudent to be on the cautious side on our first snow map, which will show 6-12 in E CT, and 4-8 everywhere else, except 3-6 in the far NW.

One thing to look for... many of the computer models that show the higher snowfall totals show the cold frontal snow phasing right into the storm, which energizes the system and tugs it further west.  There would be very little stopping between the cold frontal snow and the coastal snows if that happens.  The GFS model, in particular, keeps these two entities separate.  So we may be able to have a good idea which way this is going by observing radar trends tomorrow evening.

Another concern is winds.  Obviously, the closer storm would mean stronger winds.  If the stronger models verify, blizzard conditions would be possible for at least the Eastern half of the state.  Stay tuned to products from SCTWX and the NWS for any potential blizzard warnings.

Guidance temps on Sat are already cold and I trended them a bit colder due to clouds, northerly winds and precipitation falling.  This will be a cold snowstorm and, unless there is an enormous change in guidance, there is no concern of any mixed precipitation types.   Temps on Sat will likely struggle to get much above 20 degrees!

Long Term (Sun and beyond): Fortunately, most of the long term is quiet.  In fact, our next precipitation event is not slated until the last day of this fcst period.

So I'll quickly go thru most of the days in the long term.  

For Sunday, it looks like temp guidance already has snowcover factored into it, so I followed it closely.  A sunny and cold day, with highs in the upper 20s.  Winds could still be gusty behind our storm the first half of the day.

For Monday, sunny and we'll start the trend of getting a bit warmer each day.  Guidance once again looks fine, so high temps should be 30-35.

For Tuesday, I did trend guidance down ever so subtly.  Guidance has a habit to lose snowcover, and unless the GFS verifies, or this goes even further E than that, we'll have snowcover Tue.  So I tweaked guidance down just a bit.  Look for highs in the upper 30s, except mid 30s in the NW hiills.

For Wednesday, i went quite a bit below guidance.  The air mass is much warmer, but you'll have increasing clouds with an onshore flow, off the cold LI sound.  So low 40s should do it for highs.

For Thursday, the next storm system will affect the area.  This storm will track well to our west, up the Great Lakes, so this looks like an all-rain event everywhere.  For now, since we'll have a warm surge ahead of a front, guidance was followed, with statewide highs near 50 degrees.  If the heavy rain that some models are advertising w/that comes to fruition on a snowcovered and mostly frozen ground, there could be some flooding concerns.  But it is way too early to speculate on that.  Behind that storm, cold air rushes in and winds pick up.

The long range looks colder and Feb could turn out to be a stormy month! I have a feeling we'll be doing a few more of these type of discos in the next month or so!

In addition to the snow map that will be posted, I'll leave you with two model graphics- one of the GFS, and one of the ECMWF, just to give you an idea of how far apart the models truly are.  This is a bit disconcerting to see this close in, to say the least! Notice how on the GFS, CT has light snow falling, but nearly all the heavy moisture is in RI, E MA, and largely offshore.  The ECMWF, on the other hand, has heavy precip covering all but NW CT, and moderate precip there.  Please do not pay attn to the color ont the ECMWF graphic.  It is snow, that product just does not do precip type.
​

Anyway, that's all for now! I'll see you next week!

​-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

It was about 1am this morning when the European model showed an all out blizzard for Connecticut. In that moment, I said to myself as an unapologetic snow lover: "This isn't locked in".

Good call.

Today we here at SCW considered putting out a first call map but decided early on against it.

Another good call. 

Since that early morning run, the "trend" for today has been virtually every piece of guidance sliding east, bringing less impacts to CT and far more uncertainty than we had hoped as forecasters with less than 72 hours before the storm arrives. Then, in the last few hours, some guidance has shifted west, indicating a bit of last minute model madness that reduces confidence in putting out snow predictions in the midst of a chaotic NWP period. 

We are witnessing an unusually complex forecast, even though we have high confidence in the synoptic (large scale) pieces that will make this storm develop, explode, and track northeast. This is because the details, which usually don't come into focus until around this time, are extraordinarily sensitive to timing and amplitude changes impacting the overall outcome. Let's talk about it. 

Above: the 500mb vort and wind plot for around 7pm Saturday on the 18z GFS Ensemble. The GFS leads the charge as one of the more eastern models, which would diminish the impact in CT a bit (especially western CT), but not entirely. 

The Guidance Split

The pictures are different, but they are the same product. Above are the 18z GFS ensembles, highlighting specific members of the ensemble as lows on their closest approach to CT. This product gives us a sense of potential strength and track of a coastal storm. Note how far east the lows are above. 

Below are the 18z EPS members. You will notice they are much more west and as a result, closer to the coast. Closer means higher impact, plain and simple. 

This illustrates the above point perfectly. While synoptically (again large scale) we know a storm is coming and it will be big, the details on something like track diverges enough to introduce a lot of high end uncertainty on a potential high end event. 

Current SCW Thoughts
As we've been saying for days--even if this is a big storm, we have to beware of hype. By hype, we mean locking in monster solutions at a time frame that's too far away (i.e. now), and in a context where there is still high uncertainty on details (*cough* right now *cough*).

It's prudent to hold off on a snow map for now, but probably not much longer. We're going to wait to see what the overnight and early morning data says. That said, we can start talking impacts and probabilities for each of the scenarios TW laid out. That will help inform you and give you a sense of where we currently stand given the data...and using our own experience and analysis to forecast what happens next. 

The Scenarios
These are the same four from last night, with a deeper explanation and current percentage we think it'll come to pass. 

Scenario 1 - Southern jet stream energy dives out of the midwest, through the Gulf of Mexico, into the Atlantic, leaving behind the northern shortwave (or northern jetstream if you will) leaving us with a relatively weak piece of energy to track from west to east over the state leaving us with a relatively weak snow event, while the southern energy slips well out to sea.

This scenario doesn't look viable. What we've seen in the guidance today is that there is a phase, but it's of varying degrees and timing/location. Nothing shows what would amount to a clipper, and none of the guidance seems to even hint at this possibility (as you can see above on the ensembles).

Percent Chance: Negligible (near zero)

Scenario 2 - Northern and southern stream energy do phase with each other, and they actually intensify rapidly creating a low pressure system that tracks well west of all current modeling bringing mainly mixed precip or rain to the state. 

Much like TW said last night, no model is currently showing this scenario either. It's late in the game for such a dramatic shift, and nothing today has hinted at this being a viable possibility. Enough said. 

Percent Chance: Negligible (near zero)

I really just wrote about 1 & 2 to close the loop. We won't be talking about them anymore unless we have to. 

Scenario 3 - Northern and southern stream energy interact, phase and intensify, and track southeast of the "40/70 benchmark", moderate impact in western CT, and a high impact in eastern CT. Winter Storm Warning level snows for the entire state.

The trend today has been here, but the storm isn't today. Essentially, the models have preferred a less than perfect phase, which allows for the track to go a little further east.

That doesn't mean no storm. A storm is coming. 

We're watching the northern stream, southern stream (and whether energy is held back) and confluence to the north in Canada. Each of which could help push things east. Right now, I don't think the further east GFS is going to verify verbatim. Even if the low is further east, we are going to see tremendous inflow and banding. This is important, because usually that means deformation (heavy snow) happens well west of the storm center. This is why folks even in western CT are likely to see at least a moderate snowfall.

If this scenario played out, after possible snow showers on Friday afternoon snow would break out early Saturday morning and last through the day with the heaviest during the afternoon and evening. It would be a moderate to high impact in western CT and high impact in eastern CT with moderate to heavy snowfall, gusty winds, difficult road conditions, and moderate coastal fooding. Snow would end late Saturday. 

Percent Chance: 55% 

Scenario 4 - Interaction, phasing, intensification. Track just inside 40/70, slightly north and west of benchmark. Major winter storm for entire state. Wind, snow, coastal flooding all big impacts.

This is the statewide big dog blockbuster scenario. Here, we'd probably be talking 12"+ totals across the state at least. This would be a well timed phase of the northern stream and southern stream, with the low vertically stacking after passing the benchmark and being captured, promoting a prolonged event. 

If this scenario played out, after possible light snow on Friday afternoon snow would also break out early Saturday morning and last through the day with the heaviest during the afternoon and evening. Snow would likely end very early Sunday morning.

This would be a blizzard, even inland. We'd see high impacts across the board.

Some of the guidance late tonight is starting to show a more efficient phase and more favorable upper level evolution for a high end storm and west track, so while this is not the favored outcome right now, I think this scenario is gaining some ground, at least at the moment. The probabilities are 55/45 but there's not much daylight between the two in this forecaster's personal opinion. 

Percent Chance: 45% 

Bottom Line

• There is high confidence that a major winter storm will develop and deliver moderate and/or major impacts to the state including snowfall, wind, and coastal flooding. 
  
  
• The highest likelihood of major impacts is east of the CT River, with reduced confidence in western CT. 
  
  
• There is high uncertainty on the specific track, which still needs to be resolved. That said, a moderate to major snowfall is expected statewide. 
  
  
• Nobody should panic, but everyone should be prepared for a potentially high end winter weather event with the bulk of impacts on Saturday, and residual widespread travel problems on Sunday. 

We will continue to provide updates as warranted. Expect a first call tomorrow. 

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 
​
-DB

​
Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

Today we started off very early with a light accumulation of snow and progressed to a mostly sunny days with highs in the upper 30s and 40s. Tonight we drop back in the teens and single digits under mostly clear skies. Tomorrow will be much colder than today with temps barely reaching the low to mid 20s. Temps drop back into single digits statewide, under mostly clear skies. Thursday looks to be more "mild" than Wednesday with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. At night, temps look to not drop as much with due north winds becoming southwest, promoting a not as cold as the previous day's air temperature. We move onto Friday, things look to start off fair and calm early, but a change is in the winds, both figuratively and literally.

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Friday afternoon through Saturday evening are increasingly looking like inclement weather will impact things. This is where the forecast begins to get very difficult but weather modeling as of this moment are starting to come to a consensus as to what will happen in this time period. Confidence is ever
increasing for a major winter storm to impact the area, the path is narrowing as far as how the storm will evolve and track. But first, let me give you a brief overview and a couple of scenarios as to what we are looking at here.

What we have here is a classic interaction between northern and southern jet stream energy. Many moving pieces to look at , but, as previously noted models are starting to come to more of a consensus every run. Now on to some scenarios...

Scenario 1 - Southern jet stream energy dives out of the midwest, through the Gulf of Mexico, into the Atlantic, leaving behind the northern shortwave (or northern jetstream if you will) leaving us with a relatively weak piece of energy to track from west to east over the state leaving us with a relatively weak snow event, while the southern energy slips well out to sea.

Scenario 2 - Northern and southern stream energy do phase with each other, and they actually intensify rapidly creating a low pressure system that tracks well west of all current modeling bringing mainly mixed precip or rain to the state. 

No model is currently showing either of those scenarios. Now on to more probable scenarios.

Scenario 3 - Northern and southern stream energy interact, phase and intensify, and track southeast of the "40/70 benchmark", moderate impact in western CT, and a high impact in eastern CT. Winter Storm Warning level snows for the entire state.

Scenario 4 - Interaction, phasing, intensification. Track just inside 40/70, slightly north and west of benchmark. Major winter storm for entire state. Wind, snow, coastal flooding all big impacts.

Now let's talk my current thoughts on timing and impact to the state. As stated earlier, Friday looks to start off mostly tranquil, but clouds will start to increase as the morning progresses. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of snow showers throughout the day on Friday as we see some of that northern stream
energy track into the region, not expecting any major accumulations from the daytime snow.

As Friday day becomes night, interaction between the 2 pieces of energy will start. During this time snow will become steadier and heavier as the evening wears on. After midnight (Saturday 12am) is when I expect to see the snow really ramp up. Snow looks to continue through the day Saturday and will be heavy at times, my current thinking is that snow will not end until later Saturday evening.

Other impacts from the storm look to be high winds and coastal flooding. Models such as the Euro are hinting at very high wind gusts on Saturday, and if it went as modeled, would create near blizzard conditions. For now I'm going with sustained winds 25-40 with gusts up to 60 mph, higher winds will be toward coast, especially in south-eastern Connecticut, power outages may be a problem, so plan accordingly.

​Another impact looks to be coastal flooding. We have a "perfect storm" of an astronomical high tide and a potentially powerful low pressure system off to the east piling water into Long Island  Sound. As far as snowfall totals, we aren't quite ready to put those out, just going to say warning level, plowable event for now. We should have a snowfall map out by later tomorrow night or early Thursday morning.

A brief look at the extended forecast shows that temperatures look to moderate over the next week or 2 giving us a respite from the Arctic airmass that we have been contending with.

Again, this is a very fluid situation with many moving parts and some details to iron out over the coming days, but we are getting closer to some sort of model consensus and agreement between forecasters here at SCW. As always, thank you for your continued support, stay tuned for more updates on the storm, have a great night!- TW