Disc: There could be a few winter wx chances across the area over the next week, but the overall lack of snowfall continues at least a few more days (for most).

Currently: High pressure over Srn Canada has ushered in a cooler air mass.  A few snow showers are possible this evening across the NW Hills, but no accums are expected.

Tonight: One night of good CAA early, then good radiational conditions late.  The combo should allow temps to fall a bit below guidance.  So I have lows in the upper 20s for most.

Tomorrow: I went a bit above guidance as plenty of sun and good WAA allow for temps to warm pretty quickly.  Prob upper 40s for most of the state, but I could see a spot 50 in the CT Valley (I 91).

Tomorrow Night/Sun: Clouds increase, probably a bit more widespread than what NBM indicates.  For that reason, I went just a touch under guidance.  Still a warm day with highs in the mid to upper 40s.

A cold front, lacking in moisture, moves thru the state Sun night.   I have POPS layered from 40% in the NW Hills to 20% in SE CT.  As for ptyp, I have all rain showers for most, as the boundary layer is too warm, but they could end as ice pellets in the NW Hills.  It doesn't really matter anyway, as pcpn amounts are of little consequence, and fcst temps are above freezing.

Long Term (Next week): Two systems threaten the area, both or one could hit, and both or one could be South of the area.

For Mon, with modest CAA, I went just a touch under guidance for most of the state w/temps.  The exception is in the CT Valley, where I think mid 40s looks good, due to the valley and a bit of downsloping.  Gusty breeze develops in the afternoon, as CAA strengthens.

For Tue, guidance looks reasonably good on temps.  NO major changes foreseen, just some smoothing.  I have highs in the mid to upper 30s.  Core of the cold air moves overhead.  Clouds increase late in the day, esp along the S coast.  Winds diminish a bit.

For Wed, the first wave moves to our south.  The big question is if it comes close enough to give us any pcpn.  I have chance POPs for snow up to about I 84 and just cloudy north of there.  Ptyp would appear to be all snow.  Kind of uniform high temps- mid 30s- in the grids, which is right in line w/guidance.  If the Srn half of the state is snowing and the Nrn half is not, that would even out the usual temp differences.

For Thu, the next wave moves to our south.  This one could be a bit north of the first one, so I have chance POPs for the entire state.  For this reason, and with a strong cold air dome in place, I went way below guidance on temps, w/highs in the upper 20s.  Obviously no ptyp issues foreseen at this point, if any pcpn falls, it should be snow.  Whether it snows or not, there should also be a brisk wind, adding to the chill.

For Fri, whatever happens Wed and Thu, we clear out Fri.  Still cold, and still modest CAA, so generally went slightly under guidance, since there is also the possibility of some snowcover.  In the CT Valley, followed guidance, so highs generally near 30, except 30-35 in the CT Valley.  Winds also diminish, as high pressure moves overhead.

In the longer range, it appears the cold air retreats.  The big question is if the SE Ridge that forms lasts a few days or a few weeks.  That will largely hold the key as to whether or not winter will continue.  The way models have been this winter, the groundhog may turn out more accurate, but we'll see!

No graphics today, since we don't have any definite systems yet! See you next week!

​-GP!

Disc: We will begin to see some threats of wintry wx over the next week, at least over the interior.  The pattern may trend a bit more favorable right beyond this fcst pd.  

Currently: Main show well offshore, but ULL still across New Eng.  Any showers, however, should wrap up after sunset as diurnal instability wanes.

Tonight: We do have fresh CAA, and there will be some clear breaks.  In addition, winds will diminish thru the night.  Therefore, lows should be just under guidance, generally in the mid to upper 20s.

Tomorrow: Generally went close to guidance for much of the state.  However, I feel the NW Hills may have some diurnal cumulus in the afternoon.  So in that area, I went a bit under guidance.  Generally expect highs around 40, except staying in the upper 30s in the NW HIlls.

Tomorrow Night/Sun: Clouds increase in the 2nd half of tomorrow night, limiting radiational cooling chances.  Pcpn arrives at least in the W half of the state before dark, so I will need to include it during the day pd on Sun.  As for temps, went a bit under guidance (a deg or two) w/clouds and pcpn arriving most of the state, but a few more deg off guidance in the NW Hills.  Terrain up there should not allow warm air to work in nearly as fast as temp guidance would suggest.  I suspect we'll need a winter wx advisory generally N of 84 for 1-2" of snow (maybe a few 3 or 4 inch reports above 1000 feet), and then a pd of icing.  NAM suggests winter storm warning possible there, w/advisory possible down to the Merritt, but it is a cold outlier and is being discounted at this time.

Long Term: We'll continue w/a pattern of fast-moving sys, an active Srn jet, and marginal cold air.

Mon: Pcpn ends most areas, except NE CT by dawn.  Up there, we may need to watch temps, as it could still be fzra.  Otherwise, clearing.  Temps a bit tricky.  We have fresh CAA (albeit Pac origin), and there prob will be a little snowcover N of 84.  Therefore, I went just a deg or so below guidance most zones, but a few more deg under guidance for the 84N crew.  So highs generally low 40s, but upper 30s up north.  Winds could gust to 40 MPH at times, so it will feel chilly.

Tue: High pressure drfits offshore, so I could see temps turning out a deg or three warmer than what guidance has.  We should also have a good deal of sun, so I could see most places reaching the mid 40s. It could still be a bit breezy, bit not as windy as Mon.  In addition, and this gives credence to the idea of warmer temps, winds will turn W or SW instead of the NW winds of Mon.

Wed: Next storm moves into the area.  This storm could have more of a front-end burst of snow and/or sleet, and it could have at least an hr or two worth of it all the way to the coast, so we may need to watch.  However, it also appears to warm quicker at the sfc, so freezing rain should be less of a concern.  This one should be more of a snow/sleet then straight to rain mode, which would be easier to predict in that sense.  Temps are tricky.  Guidance may actually be too cool, but high temps may occur overnight Wed night/Thu AM.  So I went under guidance by a few deg to reflect daytime highs.  As mentioned, cold air damming does not seem to be an issue as the high pressure up north is more fleeting this time.  In fact, by later in the day, winds could be screaming 40-45 MPH gusts out of the S.  If that happens, it may actually be warmer N of the Merritt than S, at least for a few hrs.

Thu: We probably clear out all areas except the far NE, by dawn, once again.  Guidance seems too cold, w/lingering sfc warmth early in the morn, so I went above guidance by a couple deg.  I have mid to upper 40s for highs for now.  It could very well be one of those days where the high temp occurs late in the morn after a few hours of sun.  Winds could be gusting to 40-45 MPH, making it feel chillier than the actual temps.

Fri:  For temps, I went very close to guidance, as we have competing factors- cold air advection behind the departing storm, and weak warm air advection ahead of the next clipper system.  Winds diminish, but it stays relatively breezy.  High temps generally in the mid to upper 30s.

It should be noted that the clipper that goes by Fri night could leave a light coating of snow, w/Arctic air headed in behind that.

In the long range, it appears there will be more cold air to tap, as the polar jet finally gets involved.  It does not look like a perfect pattern, but if you like snow and cold, it is better than what we have had this month so far (though almost anything would be better).

I'll include two images today; the first image is the Sunday night system, the second is the Wed system.  The Wed system being stronger helps scour out any cold air faster, but there may be a bit better cold air to start, so we'll have to balance the two.
​

That's all for now, see you next week!

-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

I have frequently said that among our followers we have two evenly divided teams: those that love winter, and those that hate all that it brings. 

The NFL Playoffs are here, and in the spirit of the postseason let's talk about our winter through that lens.

Winter Haters: 35
Winter Lovers: 3

It's ugly.

​People will disagree on how much time is left, but generally speaking you have four months that have a "good" chance of bringing snow--December, January, February, and March. That would put us late in the second quarter. Winter Lovers, adjustments have to be made as we head into halftime!

Is it too late for a comeback?

Above: the temperature departure so far in January. It has been an absolute blowtorch through the first half of the month, with every single day thus far finishing above average. Even with the Arctic blast around Christmas, we're looking at near record high temperatures through the winter so far and extremely low snowfall through the winter and January so far. 

There's a lot of time left, but Winter Lovers have looked outmatched from the very start, missing a golden opportunity to score big in the first quarter (December) which would have set the tone early. 

Let's talk about the week ahead first. 

Above: the latest GFS operational run. For the next week, we're watching two systems. 

Tuesday-Wednesday
Overall, the warmer than normal month is likely to continue, with more highs in the 40s and lows well above normal. Expect highs in the mid to upper 40s with a chance of showers tomorrow and overnight that won't amount to much. Chance of rain 30%. Tomorrow is sunnier than Wednesday. 

Thursday-Friday
This is the period for our first storm. It looks to cut to our west, meaning rain is likely on Thursday. However, there may be some energy left behind the main low that could bring light snow as colder air advects in on Friday. This is a low probability deal, but going back to the football metaphor this could be a field goal opportunity with minor snow possible if things break right. Chance of rain 80% on Thursday. Chance of snow 30% on Friday. 

Saturday-Sunday
The weekend currently looks decent, with colder weather on Saturday and warming temperatures on Sunday. While the GFS has rain coming late on Sunday with another big "cutter" (storm that cuts to the west and brings rain) I am leaning toward the Euro with later timing. As a result, I am expecting a partly cloudy weekend. Highs in the 30s on Saturday. Highs in the 40s on Sunday. Chance of rain 20% on Sunday. 

Monday-Tuesday
There is a big split at the end of the forecast period between the GFS and Euro. Ensembles hint at a storm (there have been no shortage of storm systems, they've just been Winter Hater touchdowns) with the GFS much warmer, and the Euro trying to bring our first real winter storm of the season.

While I lean toward the Euro with timing, I do not lean toward it on the eventual outcome. There have been a lot of missed opportunities, and while the pattern does become slightly more favorable for wintry weather by this time, there have been more false starts than I can count in a pattern that also looks pretty open for cutters. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s both days. Chance of rain during the period 60%. Chance of snow 40%. 

​Now let's talk pattern. 

The Pattern
Above is the 12z European Ensembles showing the North America pattern potential over the next ten days. The hope for Winter Lovers is that we are entering the part of the game where snow and cold is most likely. That means even a pattern that is warmer than normal or less than ideal in the upper levels is one that can produce a score. That's how Winter Lovers get back in the game. 

December was about as good as a pattern could get, and it resulted in a truly historic Buffalo blizzard and virtually nothing here. 

The January pattern, with more ridging near Alaska and troughing moving from the west coast toward the central US, means that we should start seeing cold building in Canada and continued storminess.

It has been active since December, and one thing that's clear to me is that this is shaping up to be a high scoring finish with a lot of storms. It's still unclear whether Winter Lovers will get on the board in a meaningful enough way for a comeback. 

Overall, warmer than normal is almost certain to dominate winter, even though the extended guidance is trying to change things up at least briefly to bring in colder weather near the end of the month.

The problem is that in a La Nina, February is usually absent of wintry weather for most of the month. It's becoming critical for some of these storm chances to produce during colder periods, however transient they are, if there's any chance of getting close to a normal winter in the snow department. 

Above: this is what we call the "clown range" of the guidance. This is the GEFS (GFS Ensembles) showing surface temperature anomalies. We torch now, but by the end of the month we are trending toward normal to colder than normal.

This is a cross guidance signal, so I believe it's real, but the colder periods need to come with snow before the next warm up comes in February. I expect at least part of February to feature a southeast ridge that torches us, perhaps in a big way. 

What happens next?
If you are looking for an above normal snowfall season, that ship has all but sailed in my opinion. In order to be in the game for that, we need a one or two big storms in the next couple of weeks and hope for a fourth quarter (March) comeback. The pattern looks to be evolving to allow for a significant rain or snow event. Nuances just before the storm (looking more at next week than this Thursday/Friday) will make the difference.

Near normal however, is still very possible if there's some modest snowfall during the next 2-3 weeks. For Winter Lovers, the mantra should be "just get on the board and build momentum". 

Winter Haters are well ahead and favored to win the 2022-23 winter fight, but there's a lot of time left. A score or two before halftime could be meaningful. 

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB

Disc: There will be a bit more wintry flavor in this discussion, then as we head into the longer range, there may finally be signs showing up of a pattern breakdown in our favor.

Currently: Cold front moving thru area attm.  There could be a scattered shower along the front, but most of the rain is done.  Temps also have already reached their daily highs.

Tonight: Uncertain how clear we'll be.  However, there is cold air advection as well, so I went just a touch under guidance.  Lows mostly in the mid to upper 20s.

Tomorrow: Same theme as tonight, more or less.  Went a tad under guidance, since we'll still be in cold air advection and there will not be full sun.  Highs generally mid to upper 30s.  A gusty breeze will add to the chill.

Tomorrow Night/Sun: Low pressure passes well to the east.  May have to watch for a snow shower far E CT or at least some enhanced winds there, but most of the action is over SE MA.  No strong signal either way, so followed guidance closely.  Highs generally near 40, except 40-45 along I 91.  Gusty winds could get to 35-40 MPH, maybe even higher extreme E sections, closer to coastal low.

Long Term: Once again, the main concern in the long term is near the end of the period.

For Mon, I generally followed guidance closely, just smoothing it out here and there.  Created a fcst with plenty of sun and low 40s as a result.

For Tue, not much change in overall synoptics.  High pressure slides a bit further offshore.  Went a touch above guidance as a result.  I don't think onshore flow is as strong as some members want to depict it, so its effect is less.  Highs generally in the mid to upper 40s.

For Wed, nicest day of the week, even though clouds increase.  I went close to guidance, but above guidance along I 91.  Highs generally near 50, but 50-55 along I 91.

Complicated fcst for Thu.  Storm rides just under us w/high pressure trying to build in up N.  Antecedent air mass is not cold, but the high to the N is.  GFS and GGEM have now introduced a scenario where we could get wintry wx on the front end, then a drizzly reprieve, then as a new low develops, more wintry wx on the back end.  I am not going this far in yet for two reasons.  First, it's a new development and I generally handle new developments on day 6-7 very carefully.  Secondly, it has not wanted to snow this yr.  But we'll see, it certainly isn't impossible.    NBM guidance that is available does not incorporate this latest data, so I went much colder.  Highs generally near 40, maybe some 40-45 along the S coast.  

For Fri, I went 7-10 deg cooler than NBM guidance.  Again, it does not contain the new data.  Even so, this is still 3-7 deg warmer than the new data.  Will just call chance of -ra/-sn for now.  Way too early to tell if secondary is real and if it's cold enough.  Obviously, if this scenario is real, some wind may need to be added to the fcst, as well.

LR: There are signs on the horizon that the pattern is finally beginning to transition to one that will at least bring chances of wintry wx to the state.  Time will tell!

No graphics today, since there isn't any real wx inside 6 days.

See you next week!

​-GP!

Disc: It will feel a little more like winter in the coming week, but temps will still be solidly above norm.

Currently: Very weak low pressure right over the BM is in the process of pulling out.  A leftover shower is still possible, esp across Ern CT, over the next few hrs, and a few showers could mix with ice pellets over far NE CT, but any precip will be inconsequential.

Tonight: Skies clear.  W/modest CAA and "decent" radiational conditions, I've gone just a tad below guidance.  Lows generally near 30 thruout the state.

Tomorrow: Not a bad day at all for the time of yr, as skies clear out.  Went very close to NBM temp guidance.  Highs generally 40-45, although if we get a downsloping breeze, a few near I 91 may exceed 45.

Tomorrow Night/Sun: Clouds increase during the day Sun, esp S, ahead of the next sys.  For now, I figure clouds should be late and of the high variety, and not have too much effect on temps.  I went close to guidance, with mainly near 40, except some downslope areas getting a bit warmer.  If clouds arrive earlier and are thicker, I could be too warm.

Long Term: The long term period will be bookended by threats, with tranquil wx  in between.

Our first threat is for mainly S CT Sun nite into at least the first part of Mon.  Right now, this sys appears weak and does not appear to have much chance for amplification.  Still, there could be some accumulating snow, esp on untreated surfaces.  Even so, any accums appear to be very light- less than an inch.

As for Monday's temps, clouds prob linger longer than what guidance has, so I went under temps.  We prob stay near 40, w/maybe a bit warmer along I 91.  If snow is heavier than fcst, these temps could be too warm.

For Tue, went close to guidance, because I see no reason to fcst anything different.  Appears to be a very nice day, with sun  and highs in the mid 40s.

For Wed, went close to, or just a bit over guidance.  Cold front goes thru in the aftn and it is possible that models are underdoing the warm surge ahead of it.  Front passes thru dry, so no pcpn in fcst.  Highs generally near 40, with 40-45 along I 91.

For Thu, went near or just a tad under guidance, w/fresh cold air advection.  Cooler, w/highs generally in the upper 30s.  

On Fri, clouds increase and there could be a snow shower way out ahead of our next sys, depending on what model you believe.  Steady pcpn prob holds off until after dark.  Went a tad below guidance, because I have clouds increasing faster than the NBM.  Highs still generally in the upper 30s.

As for the weekend sys, this is just beyond our fcst pd.  As of right now, the GFS and CMC would be a snow to rain scenario, w/potential for sig mixed pcpn in interior sections, while the ECMWF would be a mainly rain scenario, perhaps ending as some snow in the far NE.  We are way too far out to speculate on exact ptypes, duration, etc.

No graphics today because the main sys in the fcst is beyond the real fcst pd and the only other sys is very weak.  

Take care and see you next week!

-GP!