Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

The trickiest storm of the season thus far is approaching, with a modestly high ceiling and very low floor. Looking at all the data, here's our forecast, which is fairly low confidence. We expect a minor impact event with a rain and snow system that starts tomorrow end ends on Monday. 

Above: our snowfall accumulation map. For virtually all of the southern four counties this is a low impact mostly rain event. Don't expect much if any accumulation, even if you are away from the coast.

For lower elevation northern CT, we have a 1-3" zone with most, especially in the CT River Valley, struggling to accumulate as well. Slightly cooler temperatures should allow for a minor measurable accumulation.

Our highest zone is in the NW and NE hills where 3-6" of snow is possible. Here too, we think most are on the lower end but have greater respect for the possibility that in a marginal temperature environment these areas can verify colder than current guidance suggests. ​

Overall Setup
The general evolution of this one is reflective of the season thus far: another missed opportunity if you are a winter weather lover. We have a system to our west that will transfer energy from the Ohio Valley to off the coast tomorrow. This by itself prevents an all rain event for interior CT. However, instead of a classic nor'easter that brings snow throughout the state, the low at both the surface and aloft is unable quickly organize and intensify.

In addition to that, we have a marginal airmass at best in place, meaning that for any meaningful snow we are heavily reliant on accumulation that comes from the initial wave of precipitation that occurs tomorrow morning and early afternoon to both accumulate and cool the column/surface. That's a massive red flag and the primary reason we are more bearish on this system overall.

I'm going to do something a little different than usual forecasts and really go under the hood.

If you're one of those folks that is just looking at how much falls in your backyard or what time it starts and ends haha it's ok to skip ahead to the timing and impact section now. 

Technical Discussion
If you're looking purely at the snow maps certain websites generate, you're probably wondering why we're bearish while the maps show 6+ inches for large parts of the state. Let's take a closer look at the meteorology. 

Here's the latest version of the GFS, which is actually one of the more favorable solutions for a real winter storm. All the animated images below are from 1am Sunday through 1pm Monday. All images are courtesy of Tropical Tidbits. 

I've slowed this animated image down to make it easier to follow. The GFS has us starting out as mostly snow tomorrow morning before 7am. Even this is in dispute on the guidance. As the coastal low takes shape off the coast, you can see the warmth engulf southern CT while northern CT has a period of moderate to heavy snow. That's the key period on the guidance as that's where most of the accumulation would be likely to happen. As the storm pulls away we get colder air coming in and overnight Sunday into early Monday morning brings a little more snow. 

If you look at that by itself you probably say while southern CT is cooked northern CT probably does ok. On the snow map, which uses a standard 10:1 ratio (ten inches of snow for every one inch of rain), you'd be correct. 

Looking simply at the map above, you'd probably say wow, this is 6+ for most and even 8+ in the hill towns. Even Bridgeport is sporting a 4" total from this one. This is exactly the time to dig deeper. 

A lot of what the GFS is selling is falling quickly in a less than dynamic storm. Let's look at a key piece of this that is often left out of discussion, the 700mb low. Again this depiction is from 1am Sunday through 1pm Monday. We are looking at the vorticity or energy at 700mb. 

What does this show? You see a fairly dynamic 700mb low with closed contours the Ohio Valley just become strung out as it crosses into the Atlantic and very close to New England. If this were developing quickly (and we had a cold high to the north), you'd get colder air advecting in aloft to allow for a colder temperature profile, and you'd also get better frontogenesis to bring heavier and more efficient snowfall. We do not have that here outside of the initial burst. 

This all feeds back into temperatures, which are marginal at best. If we had a little more cooling this would be more impactful, but we're on the edge in northern CT. Again using the same time period. 

As you can see, outside of NW CT temperatures are marginal to say the least. Now, exact surface temperatures are not something we tend to embrace on any given model because they all have their biases. The GFS for instance tends to be a little warmer than reality.

However, this is where soundings are critical to a forecast. They allow us to look at every layer of the atmosphere and understand not just temperature but things like moisture and lift profiles. Let's quickly look at New Haven, Hartford (City), and Bradley Airport tomorrow afternoon at 1pm. 

Here is the surface depiction from the model at 1pm tomorrow. Heavy rain in much of southern CT with moderate to heavy snow in much of northern CT. 

Let's look at New Haven first. You'll see that each of the three soundings below have some significant issues. 

New Haven's issue is easy. It's too warm. It's a rain sounding throughout the column, which I've circled in red. This gives high confidence that it's plain rain in much of southern CT tomorrow, especially in coastal CT, after a possible initial burst of snow in the morning. 

Hartford has a different issue. While the GFS surface depiction shows moderate to heavy snow, there is very poor lift present. While lift is better in the preceding frame (not shown here) it makes me question how long the accumulating snow window actually is for central CT. I circled lift on the left side of the image, and you will see it's weak in the DGZ, which is the prime area for efficient snowfall. You want lift to be very strong and the DGZ to be much larger than the sounding shows. I added a red line on the central image to show that it is snowing aloft and even at the surface according to this model depiction. 

Weaker precipitation rates in northern CT even part of southern CT means a warmer solution. 

Furthest north, looking at BDL, we have the same issues. Temperatures are less of a concern here (note how it's slightly colder aloft), which means we can infer they are less of a concern in hilly sections of NW and NE CT. Usually if the CT/MA line is torching, that means warmth is reaching our higher NW and NE elevations as well, even if it's a bit more muted. 

We repeat this analysis throughout the duration of the system other global models like the Euro, and at close range (inside 48 hours) we do it on the high resolution models like the HRRR and NAM too. 

For this storm we come to the same conclusion: the surface depiction looks more impactful than it's likely to be because the situation is marginal. The combination of temperatures and a less dynamic storm means snow changing to rain and then back to snow for most. If either of these are slightly off it could mean more/less accumulation across much of northern CT tomorrow while much of southern CT is out of the game for anything significant regardless of what happens. 

Timing & Overall Impact
Timing looks straightforward. Precipitation will begin between 2-6am from south to north. It may start out as some snow in southern CT but should quickly change to rain, while northern CT sees snow. Snow in northern CT changes to rain late morning into the afternoon, with the chance of things changing back to snow tomorrow night even down toward the coastline. That may be the chance to pick up accumulation there. While some guidance has snow lingering later into Monday afternoon, I think snow winds down Monday morning.

With temperatures above freezing for most during this event, roads could become slick especially under heavier snow, but I don't anticipate the same kind of road issues we saw during much colder storms earlier this month. 

We don't expect wind issues or significant power outage/flooding issues. The snow is likely to be heavy wet snow, so if we end up with more accumulation there could be slightly more impact. Overall this looks minor for most, with no major issues expected Monday in southern CT and scattered delays or cancellations possible in northern CT, especially hill towns. 

We will be closely watching temperatures and how quickly this organizes. We'll know if the forecast is on track pretty quickly tomorrow as we watch temperatures and observation. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
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-DB​ ​

Good evening from SCW. 

January has been an active and interesting month. With the extended cold last week, we're back within range of the January temperature forecast we had in our winter forecast (which was 1-2 degrees above normal), but the repeated bouts of high precipitation events have continued to roll on. Both the official Hartford and Bridgeport stations are well above normal in overall precipitation and that will only grow with the rain coming tomorrow. 

The January snowfall distribution has been interesting as well. While some places like the hill towns have done very well and have likely exceeded their monthly snowfall average, your perception of how wintry the month has been will depend on your location. 

If you're right along the coast, or in lower elevation western CT, things may feel bleak if you are a winter lover. Inland, if you're in a lower elevation location, you may feel better that the challenges the coast has faced (and faces every year in reality) haven't extended to you, but maybe a little down on what you've gotten.

This is why I like placing climatology data in the early month discussions. 

Hartford (BDL) January Normals
January Snowfall: 14.2"/ Snowfall to date: 13.6" (95.77% of monthly normal)
January Precipitation: 3.28"/ Precipitation to date: 6.48" (197.56% of monthly normal)

Normal December-January snowfall: 24.3"/ Snowfall to date: 13.6" (55.96% of normal)
Normal December-January precipitation: 7.36"/ Precipitation to date: 14.52" (197.28% of normal)

Bridgeport (BDR) January Normals
January Snowfall: 8.5"/ Snowfall to date: 5.5" (64.70% of monthly normal)
January Precipitation: 3.18"/ Precipitation to date: 4.45" (139.93% of monthly normal) 

Normal December-January snowfall: 14.0"/ Snowfall to date: 5.5" (39.28% of normal)
Normal December-January precipitation: 7.16"/ Precipitation to date: 12.8" (178.77% of normal) 

You can see that there's a clear split in outcomes so far this month in both precipitation and snowfall. During our big winter storm earlier in the month, much of inland CT cashed in on the opportunity, while coastal CT, which has had to battle temperatures all season, was less successful.

Even so, with shoreline seasonal snowfall being what it is, it wouldn't take much for the area, and as a result, the rest of the state, to finish our active January with near to perhaps above monthly snowfall. Between Friday's rain event and our potential Sunday/Monday system, we likely add to both the snowfall and overall precipitation column before the month closes.  

While the blowtorch December likely keeps us all below normal overall in snowfall as we enter February, an El Nino backloaded winter tends to peak in February, which is statistically our best month for snowfall. Even in the bad years we tend to do backloaded well in Connecticut. 

 For now, however, let's talk about the coming seven days. 

Above: the 18z European Ensemble mean depiction of the Sunday storm. The exact track and strength are critical to how wintry this system is for Connecticut. 

​Friday-Saturday
Before we talk about the Sunday storm, let's talk about tomorrow's storm. While today was in the 50s, that's it for the January "thaw". We are warmer than normal in the 40s tomorrow, but the story is the rain, which will move in overnight and depart gradually tomorrow afternoon. This shouldn't be like the other very high precipitation events we've seen this month so I am not expecting flooding issues, but tomorrow is an umbrella day. This is a more run of the mill warm January storm--which does commonly happen in the middle of winter. 

Saturday looks like our quiet day which we may need as I think this Sunday event is going to go down to the wire in the outcome. Highs remain in the 40s with perhaps some peeks of sun, though clouds will quickly increase as the next storm arrives. 

Sunday-Monday
These potential storms have not been easy on us, and this one is definitely no different. This is the quintessential thread the needle winter storm around here, with no cold airmass in place before storm arrival, a coastal system that is taking its time to develop, and possible track issues. 

The track issues seem to be coming into better focus. Whereas a day or two ago it seemed possible that this could track so close that it's becomes an all rain event, it does now look like the low transfers from over the eastern US to the Atlantic and then moves under New England. That increases confidence that there is at least some snow with this. 

However, there are still two major issues. The first is that lack of a cold airmass. Unlike other storms this month, we don't really have solid cold locked in as the storm advances. That could very well mean a period of rain starting on Sunday that eventually flips to snow as the storm wraps in colder air. That's a big red flag for significant accumulations, especially if you're on the shoreline. Even inland that could lead to a less impactful event. 

Right now, I am inclined to believe that this also trends toward opening the window for a more wintry event. I don't want to oversell it however, I'm not terribly confident in that yet. Part of the issue on the models is that they've overplayed the warmth just generally (those 60s modeled by the Euro earlier in the week were never happening with northwest flow), and the other part is that they assumed greater warmth with a closer track. With a track that looks to be more offshore now both at the surface and aloft, the airmass looks just cold enough for a majority snow event. But...there's another issue, and it's easy to see on the latest GFS model run. 

It's a weak system that's barely dynamic. 

This is the latest GFS, which shows a mostly snow event because the surface low (and low aloft) is offshore, but it's really just middling along rather than intensifying quickly and significantly as it transfers energy from PA and WV to the coast. Why does that matter? Well, it makes the difference between a light to moderate snow event and a bigger one, because you don't get the development of a classic cold conveyor belt (CCB) that would allow for heavy snowfall that can both cool the column and surface even to the coast and provide more efficient high ratio snowfall that can accumulate better. 

This is a critical piece to the storm. Without it we run the risk of a warmer and far less effective snow producer, even if the low takes a classic benchmark track. I have a hard time buying that this will be significantly stronger than what's being depicted now on the guidance, but the organizational trend is important too. This is something I'll be watching closely Friday and Saturday. 

As it stands now, snow is likely to begin, perhaps after a period of rain on Sunday morning. The storm likely ends early Monday, before the morning commute. This is likely to be a plowable snow for interior CT, but again, nothing is locked in yet, especially in southern CT. 

Tuesday-Thursday
We get chilly again in the wake of the storm, regardless of how it plays out. We should finally see some sun, but temperatures will fall back into highs that top out in the 30s to perhaps low 40s. It should be quiet, but we'll be watching another possible system at the very end of the month, though that looks like a miss right now.

Beyond that, there's a signal for another potential Arctic blast, particularly on the European model, while the GFS is more moderate. For now, I lean a bit warmer at the end of the forecast period. 

The Dailies
Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Daytime highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain 100%. 

Saturday: Partly cloudy early with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. 

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with rain and/or snow, followed by snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of rain 40%. Chance of snow 60%. 

Monday: Snow early followed by gradual clearing. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. 

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and colder. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. 

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 30s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.  

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
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Thank you for reading SCW.
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-DB​ 

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

Sometimes it's the smaller storms that bring the greatest forecasting challenge. A number of places saw their first below freezing day since February 2023, and the cold in place this week is going to make tomorrow a challenging day as a weak system approaches. Given the timing and potential for some freezing rain and sleet, this is a higher impact event than it would otherwise be. Let's dive in. 

Above: our map for the upcoming event. For most of interior CT, we expect 2-5" of mostly snow. Given the trend, isolated areas may see 6". However, mixing may happen in part of this zone for a time tomorrow afternoon after most precipitation has fallen, leading to a glaze of ice from freezing rain and/or sleet. This is particularly true in Hartford, Tolland, and Windham counties, and over in coastal SW CT.

For the coastline zone we expect 1-3". The least is likely to fall along the immediate shoreline. Here we expect snow changing to a mix that would include freezing rain, sleet, and maybe even a little plain rain in far SE CT. 

Overall Progression
Despite the challenge on the extent of the mixing, the overall progression is straightforward. Snow is quickly approaching as this system continues to bring snow and mixing to the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the south. A weak low will develop well offshore, but with a close enough track (too close for all snow this time) and a little faster development we will see impacts here. 

While some flurries are possible late tonight, snow really begins from south to north after midnight. It's cold enough for everywhere to start all snow. 

Most should still be all snow during the morning hours around the commute, with the mixing line approaching SE CT.  Everyone is likely to be below freezing still at this time so the commute is going to be impacted significantly. Snow may be moderate to heavy at times. 

Above: the high resolution NAM depiction of the event.

Most guidance has something like the depiction above now, with warm air aloft causing mixing over a greater portion of the state late morning into afternoon while most stay below freezing during the event. This isn't like last weekend where the shoreline is rotting under light precipitation at 37 degrees for no accumulation. Even at the coast, the temperatures are near to below freezing. The biggest question of where temperatures rise above freezing is coastal SE CT, hence the 1" zone. For inland areas that may mix, most of the precipitation will have already fallen as snow by the time a mix happens. 

The precipitation will be lighter by afternoon and change back to snow on the backside as the storm departs tomorrow evening. 

Overall Impact
With a little more snowfall and the likelihood of freezing rain and/or sleet tomorrow, this looks like a moderate impact event. With the snow lasting all day and potential for icing, which doesn't look major--just a glaze--it's probably going to cause widespread cancellations. We're not expect any wind or power issues. We stay in the freezer in the wake of the storm. 

No reason to overthink this one. It looks like a mostly snow event with mixing late morning and afternoon in a good portion of the state that could bring a glaze of ice. The timing and icing although minor should make this a more moderate impact event. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
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Thank you for reading SCW.
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-DB​ ​

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.

It has been an active month. Snow, flooding rain, high wind, snow squalls, and coastal flooding. It has been warm, and now it's time to get cold. Today's active weather has ushered in a moderated version of the deep cold that has gripped much of the central US in the wake of the last storm that cut to our west. We've reached the portion of the pattern evolution that will bring cold and snow to Connecticut this week. 

Above: 9pm air temperatures across the continental US. While we won't get nearly as cold as the central US, it will be cold enough for sustained temperatures near to below freezing and snow chances as storm tracks shift from west of New England to off the east coast. 

Monday-Tuesday
Tomorrow is our first full cold day, with interior highs near to below freezing. Parts of the shoreline may be a few degrees warmer, but it'll be cold there as well. We will be watching the storm system that is currently bringing snow and ice in the south. This storm will be moving quickly, and it is unusual to have the lack of consensus that we did this close to an event. Most of tomorrow looks fine, with a mix of sun and clouds. 

The guidance has on balance tried to speed things up, but currently I am still expecting snow to start after midnight early Tuesday morning. 

This system has been a pain, with the guidance taking longer to show what I quietly expected given the overall pattern--a weak system that is closer to the coast bringing snowfall. For our shoreline friends, this is a delicate balance. Too strong and close and you run the risk of mixing. Too far away and it's a miss altogether. Some of the high resolution guidance is more amped, but right now I prefer a blend of guidance bringing a colder middle ground. 

This isn't big enough an event for a whole first call/final call. Let's just say for now that we expect snow to begin after midnight Tuesday. Light to moderate (at times) snow will fall through the day and wrap up Tuesday evening. 

This looks like a minor to moderate impact event, made potentially moderate because delays or even cancellations will be possible on Tuesday. As of this forecast I expect 1-3" statewide, with most in the 2-3" range. Highest amounts are likely inland with the least in far SE CT.

That said, there has been a continued trend toward a little more snowfall. Learning the lessons of last week, I'm not ready to go up in the forecast until I see more consistency. I think the numbers will go up some, but let's watch the overnight and morning guidance for a longer term trend and analyze in the morning. 

Above: a trend loop of GFS runs. It was really only in the last day that we've seen some of the globals start to get the system closer for snow. But beware, that mixing line is close to SE CT, even though it does look cold enough for accumulation there. 

Wednesday-Thursday
In the wake of the event Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday look cold as well. It should be quiet and we will be watching the next potential storm very closely. Once again, highs may not cross freezing in interior CT. Shoreline may struggle as well, especially on Wednesday. 

Above: the 12z Euro depiction of temperatures Wednesday-Thursday. In the wake of the snow event Tuesday, Wednesday may be quite cold. 

Friday-Sunday
Friday is the period to watch. Simply put, there is pretty explosive potential with a lobe of the polar vortex looming and available to inject itself into a system developing, but when you look at the details, the timing looks just off enough to bring significant uncertainty to what happens. If we saw an earlier and cleaner phase of the pieces of energy it's a big storm. If things remain disjointed, it's likely a snow event, but much weaker. Five days out with this much uncertainty means nobody should be locking in anything. Plenty of time to watch. In the wake of whatever happens, another push of cold comes into the region keeping our weekend cold and possibly frigid. 

Above: the 12z EPS showing potential low pressure centers during the Friday timeframe. Note how much closer the lows are on the ensemble compared to the GEFS below. There's still a lot of spread for this one. Images courtesy of Pivotal Weather.

The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny and cold. Increasing clouds late. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. 

Tuesday: Snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 80%. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. Highs in the mid to upper 20s inland. Upper 20s to low 30s at the coast.  

Thursday: Partly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. 

Friday: Snow. Highs in the mid to upper 20s. Chance of snow 60%. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the upper teens to mid 20s. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 20s. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
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Thank you for reading SCW.
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-DB​ ​

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

It has been busy. Since shortly after Christmas the large scale pattern has been shifting dramatically, taking the continental US from an absolute blowtorch of a December to an exceptionally active first half of January with multiple major storms with national scale impact. That's not hyperbole. This may be one of the most active winter months the lower 48 has seen in years, and it's not going to let up. We're tracking it all. 

Let's dive in. 

Above: European Ensemble (EPS) depiction of surface temperature anomalies between tomorrow and next Thursday. While we're warm now, the first storm is critical to dislodging Arctic cold from Canada which sets the stage for next week's cold and storm opportunities. 

Another Multi-hazard Event Tonight & Saturday
We have another storm approaching, and it'll bring a repeat of flood, wind, and coastal flooding potential. This time, the headline hazards have shifted a bit. We expect less rain and wind than the last storm. That said, we have wind advisories for Litchfield and the coastal parts of the southern four counties as well as New London County. Flood watches are up for the entire state, again. We also have coastal flood warnings for the entire shoreline. 

Rain moves in between approximately 9pm and 1am from SW to NE. The rain is heaviest between about 3am and 9am, before clearing from west to east tomorrow morning. Scattered showers will be possible into the afternoon. We expect rainfall totals between 1-3", which will cause some scattered flooding issues. We don't expect the major impact that we saw with the last storm, but it's good to be weather aware if you are near a river or stream that is already in flood or action stage. 

Wind does not look nearly as bad as the last storm, which had more muted winds compared to potential to begin with. While there are wind advisories, I expect peak wind gusts between 35-45mph around the state, with the highest winds at the coast. I do not expect significant power outages or damaging winds. 

Coastal flooding looks to be the most impactful part of this storm. The water rise is poorly timed with the tides tomorrow, and the entire coastline is looking at moderate flooding late tomorrow morning and early afternoon as a result. Incredibly, eastern New England will see a major event just on the heels of the last storm. Parts of Maine are expected to see their worst flooding in a decade, for the second time in the week. 

Overall, this is a low to moderate impact storm here in Connecticut, with the main headline being coastal flooding. 

​As mentioned earlier, this storm is critical to the arrival of deep winter. 

Above: the 18z high resolution NAM depicting the storm tonight and tomorrow and the arrival of colder temperatures and possible snow squalls on Sunday. 

Sunday-Monday
The massive storm that is cutting to our west and bringing us rain is a key piece to the pattern evolution over the next week at least. In the wake of the storm we see colder air pulled down on Sunday. This is in no way Arctic air, but we'll notice the cold as we see a windy Sunday with wind chills.

The high resolution guidance has been signaling the potential of instability remaining and creating the possibility of snow squalls or snow showers on Sunday. This may lead to some minor accumulation in spots and bears watching. 

Cold air continues to advect in on Monday, and that'll be the start of our extended period of cold. 

I went back in the weather records, and the guidance is showing most of next week below freezing. You'd think that's normal, but it hasn't been recently. If that were to happen, it'd be the coldest period in CT in nearly three years! To be clear, we're not talking about the kind of cold we saw briefly last February, but rather an extended period where the entire state is near to below freezing the entire day.

This kind of cold opens the window for snow opportunities, but it's an open question whether we produce. The first opportunity is Tuesday/Wednesday. 

Above: The latest European model on the left and GFS on the right. The guidance has been all over the place in not only timing of a possible storm but whether it even happens. This is fairly close in for this kind of flip-flopping. 

Tuesday-Wednesday
This one is tricky. The signal for a storm is there. The cold is certainly available, even to the coast. The ensembles while a bit offshore favor some type of snow event Tuesday and/or Wednesday. However, suppression--which in this case would be the shearing out of the storm vorticity (energy) so much that little to nothing can develop close enough to the coast for a real storm--remains on the table.

I do lean toward an all snow event during this period, but this one is far from settled. That's all that can really be said right now. Potential looks more modest rather than a major storm right now, but again, there's too much uncertainty to get into details until at least late Saturday. 

Thursday-Saturday
While Thursday looks quiet and cold regardless of what happens with the Tuesday/Wednesday storm opportunity, Friday and Saturday may be active. This is the third storm opportunity we're watching. Once again, there is a strong signal even from long range of something happening. The potential here is explosive, with a weakening block and extremely favorable upper level pattern for coastal storm development. Once again, with cold in place this looks like it could be a snow event. 

Above is the EPS 500mb depiction, and if you like blockbuster storms it's a beautiful run at this range. That said, potential does not mean production. We'll just have to wait and see what happens. There will probably be a lot of changes before we lock into a solution around midweek next week. 

I'm inclined to say that the next week is critical to the overall winter. If we are going to get close to normal snowfall this year, producing with meaningful snow events in the next week is important. 
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A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
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Thank you for reading SCW.
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-DB​ ​