Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!

A quick look at current conditions across the state shows partly cloudy skies and temperatures ranging from the upper teens inland, to the low and mid 20s at the shore. I expect these temperatures to moderate slowly but surely throughout the day for highs inland of about 25 degrees and highs at the shore around 30. Looking ahead to the evening, temperatures will drop back into the teens statewide with skies clouding over late in advance of our next weather maker, by the middle of the morning tomorrow skies look to be overcast.

For the most part, the morning looks to be mainly snow-free statewide wiith temperatures gradually rising through the teens into the low to mid 20s, with upper 20s to around 30 at the shore. Snow starts to move into the state from the west and southwest, beginning with a few early snow showers right around lunchtime in the southwestern part of the state, and overspreading the rest of the state by the mid afternoon. Snow will continue, in varying intensities, throughout Sunday evening and the early morning hours of Monday morning, it does look as if the morning rush will be impacted by snow, so delays and even closings around the state look likely. There is also a chance that the rain/snow line reaches the shoreline, especially far southeastern Connecticut, as the shortwave system becomes a coastal low pressure system and tracks south of Long Island and moves in a northeast trajectory. That said I expect all of the state down to the shoreline to be mainly snow. Current thoughts on snow accumulations are on the order of 3-6 inches, with slightly more possible in southwest and northeast Connecticut where we could find some isolated accumulations up to 8 inches.

Snow and possibly rain and mixed precipitation  will end from southwest to northeast as we head through the mid morning hours of Monday, and completely clear of the state by around lunchtime. As we head through Monday afternoon we will see clearing skies and breaks of of sun, high temperatures look to approach the low 30s inland to mid 30s at the shore. Looking toward Monday night, temperatures will again tumble as a cold front moves through the state, lows look to range from the upper single digits inland, to the mid teens at the shore, so it looks as if these cold "blasts" are starting to become less potent. Tuesday will serve as a brief respite before next week's event, high temperatures will range from the low to mid 20s inland to the low 30s at the shore with clear skies.

A quick look at the mid-week storm shows much of the same, if not slightly colder on the front end and back end of the event. Right now it looks as if snow and frozen precipitation will move in later Tuesday night and bring some plowable accumulations, as the low pressure begins to wind up and track to the west of the state, gradually the entire state looks to change over to rain for the day on Wednesday, and  we could see the first widespread 40 degree highs across the state in many, many weeks. As the storm pulls away late Wednesday night and Thursday, winds will flip around to the northwest and promote colder temperatures. We could see some wraparound snow on the backside of the storm on early Thursday morning, so we are watching this one very closely. There will be a more indepth discussion on this storm sometime tomorrow.

Enjoy your day everyone! We will have another update sometime this evening or tomorrow morning. Stay tuned!- Tim

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

Today we had a little snow as we were scraped by a coastal storm which tracked well to our south. Areas that normally see rain this time of the year such as North and South Carolina were solidly in the snow and cold temperatures, picking a few inches of accumulation. The current air mass in place which brought cold temperatures to the state, actually worked to suppress the storm south and spare us yet another major snowfall.

Currently, we have clearing skies and temperatures ranging from the teens inland, to the 20s at the shore. As we head through the evening, skies will become completely clear promoting radiational cooling, in turn, temps will drop to the lower to middle single digits inland and lower teens at the shore. Looks to be another cold night in a period that has featured many, many cold nights, the only caveat here is that winds will be calm for the most part, so no below zero windchills.

As we head through tomorrow morning, winds do look to still be light with temperatures around the state ranging from the upper single digits inland, to the mid teens at the shore, so make sure to bundle up the kids as they head to the bus stop, or yourself as you head off to work. Temperatures do look to 'rebound' into the low to mid 20s, possibly approaching 30 at the shore during the afternoon hours. Conditions look to to be mostly dry tomorrow, outside of a chance of a few flurries or snow showers, especially after lunchtime in advance of yet another cold,front, which will put our temperatures back into freezer. Skies will be cleared out again Friday, but temperatures will plummet to near zero or below statewide. Again, winds look to be light, so wind chills will not be too severe.

Looking ahead to the early part of weekend and your Saturday, temperatures will range from the low to mid 20s across the state, so par for the course as far as this extended cold pattern is concerned, but still far below what the normal high temperatures are supposed to be for this time of the year. Conditions during the day on Saturday look to be dry and sunny, so other than cold temperatures, we will not have to contend with frozen precipitation. Looking ahead to Saturday night, much of the same is to be expected, temperatures ranging from a few degrees below zero inland, to the mid single numbers at the shore with clear skies.

After Saturday night, the quiet weather looks to come to an end. Right now we are watching for a northern jet stream disturbance to impact the state from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. The European model looks to move a weak storm system through the state and bring a minor snowfall accumulation statewide. The GFS on the other hand has a slightly more amplified system impacting the state through the same time frame, at this time we are thinking snow is pretty solid bet for Sunday through Monday morning, with accumulations being on the light side. We will probably have a first call map out on this system tomorrow night or Saturday morning.

Things look to clear out later Monday morning, but there are signs of yet another storm system moving in for later Tuesday through the mid week. Right now it is much too soon to speculate on track or snowfall from this system as it is about 5 days away. Current modeling shows both northern and southern jet stream interaction with this storm, so a much more potent disturbance than the Sunday-Monday storm looks possible. Currently the GFS, Canadian GGEM, and Euro show low pressure systems tracking either over us or to the west of us promoting a warmer, rainier system as opposed to a snowy, cold system. In all cases, it does look as though precipitation will start as an extended period of frozen precipitation which will gradually change to rain from south to north as warm air over takes the region from the strengthening low pressure system tracking through the Great Lakes region. Although, I would not rule out the chance of a change over back to snow on the backside of the storm as the winds flip back around to the northwest. Again, this system is 5 to 7 days out, so much too early to speculate on track, precipitation type, accumulations and the like. Just know the signal is there for a potent storm system to effect the state and region.

In the longer term, Arctic intrusions look to be less, let's say, potent. Seasonal changes will start to gradually take effect as pattern changes will start to trend in a more spring-like direction. I'm not saying that it won't be cold, because I do still see temperatures through the middle of March still being below average, but it does look as though there is a light at the end of the Arctic temperature tunnel.  It does look as though it will be a while before we start seeing any major moderation of temperatures to springtime levels though. It solidly looks as though there won't be a thaw through the vernal equinox, or the official first day of spring on March 20th. As far as the pattern goes with storms, it looks as if we will start trending away from major coastal storms and more into smaller nickel and dime events.

Have a good rest of your night everyone and stay warm! More on the Sunday and mid-week disturbances tomorrow. Stay tuned.- Tim

Good early early morning to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

It's another very cold night in the state, with locations across the state hovering on either side of zero and  steadily dropping. Radiational cooling will continue throughout the night, and by morning, everywhere in the state should be below zero, and northern parts of the state and higher elevations will be in the double digit negatives! As a result, a Wind Chill Advisory has been issued until mid-day for the northern four counties from the NWS for wind chills of fifteen to twenty degrees below zero. Bundle up when you're heading outside! Some school districts have announced delayed openings for this morning, so make sure to check with your district before you wake the kids up to get ready!

For those of you who are sick of this cold, unfortunately, the upcoming week looks like we'll be seeing a lot of it, although in general we will be a bit more moderated this week than we were last week, especially as we push towards the weekend. However, the dailies will remain below normal throughout the period, so don't get your hopes up for the arrival of spring anytime soon. As far as precipitation goes, we are watching a chance for a bit of snow in eastern areas late tomorrow evening into Wednesday morning from an Inverted Trough that develops to our east on the NW flank of a coastal low. This could bring an inch or two of snow to the SE corner of the state and perhaps some flurries or snow showers across the remainder, but in general, not expecting this to be a big deal at all and in fact think most areas west of I91 will see nothing at all. Otherwise, dry conditions look to continue throughout the period. There is a system that is currently modeled to pass well SE of us for Thursday night into Friday that we are keeping an eye on just in case, but for now, think it will be far enough out to sea to spare us from accumulating snow. Overall, a quiet and cold week looks to be in the cards.

Here are the dailies:

Tuesday: Sunny and cold, with highs in the upper teens.
Wednesday: A chance of snow in the morning, then partly sunny, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Chance of precipitation is 20% west of I91, 50% east of I91, and 70% in SECT where an inch or two is possible.
Thursday: Sunny and cold, with highs in the lower 20s.
Friday: Mostly cloudy and cold, with highs in the mid 20s. 
Saturday: Sunny and a bit warmer, with highs in the upper 20s to near 30.
Sunday: Sunny and warmer, with highs in the mid 30s(Still 5 to 10 degrees below normal though).

We'll be back with more info on Wednesday morning's light snow this evening, but until then, stay warm and thank you for reading Southern Connecticut Weather!
-SA

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

As discussed yesterday, a storm system will ride the gradient to our west between two areas of high pressure, bringing a round of mixed precipitation to the area. All precipitation looks to start as snow, but as the system comes north, it draws warm air further north with it as well given that there is no block or area of high pressure to provide resistance, and therefore most if not all areas of the state will eventually flip to mixed precipitation and/or plain rain over the course of the evening and overnight Saturday before precipitation tapers off Sunday morning. As always, this discussion is split into three parts; Models and Trends, Forecast and Timing, and Impacts. If you’re just looking for the snowmap, scroll down to the Forecast and Timing section, otherwise, read on and enjoy!

Models and Trends

All guidance in relatively good agreement on the track of the storm, however, some discrepancies remain related to surface temperatures and precipitation amounts. Most guidance keeps our area in the 33-35 range during the storm, however, I’m a bit skeptical of temperatures going much above freezing in interior areas during the duration of the precipitation. Models are typically too warm with surface temperatures when we are dealing with such a cold antecedent airmass, and the storm itself is relatively weak and hence does not have a strong mechanism to bring up warm air with it. We saw this in the 1/24 storm that kicked off this wintry bonanza where most guidance got the state into the 35-36 range and the end result was temperatures locked around freezing and an over performance of snow and ice as a result. Have leaned on that analog heavily for this forecast.

The one wildcard on temperatures is Sunday morning, where some guidance attempts to warm us up into the low 40s as the system clears out and the sun comes out, while other guidance says we rot at 33 for much of the day and then go back into the freezer overnight. Leaning towards the colder solutions for now due to the reasons explained above.

As far as precipitation amounts, generally stayed towards consensus or a bit under due to the weak system having issues with developing a large area of heavy snow. There will be isolated bands that deliver an hour or two of heavy snow to some areas and bust totals a bit low there as a result, but I don’t have the confidence in a more widespread heavy precipitation shield to forecast widespread warning criteria snowfall. Generally expecting between a half to three quarters of an inch of QPF across the state with the highest amounts along the coastline where perhaps an isolated report of an inch may be found.

We have seen generally consistent runs from the models, and if anything, the trend has been towards a slightly colder and hence snowier solution. However, have not seen anything to suggest that models will dramatically trend colder or warmer and hence have essentially taken them at face value for the purposes of this forecast.

Forecast and Timing

Here’s a look at our forecast snowmap for this event.

In the SE corner of the state, where precipitation will be slowest to arrive and where the changeover will occur first, we’re expecting one to three inches of snow. Elsewhere, we’re expecting three to six inches of snow, with the quicker changeover in SW areas being balanced out by being the first area to see precipitation. We have included a zone of four to eight inches in the far NW corner of the state to account for the possibility of those areas remaining all snow, but generally I think amounts there will be in the four to six inch range with 8" as an insurance policy if the storm is a bit colder than expected. It should be noted that this will be a heavier and wetter snow compared to the fluff that we’ve been seeing recently.

We are also worried about some icing, especially away from the coastline in the traditionally colder spots. As of now, models agree that surface temperatures will get up into the 33-34 degree range once we flip to rain and as a result icing would appear to be no big deal, but I’m skeptical for two reasons. First off, models always overdo surface temperatures, especially in situations where we have a cold antecedent airmass like we do here, and secondly, ground temperatures are so cold from all the arctic shots that we’ve been experiencing that even if the two meter(the level at which surface temps are measured at) temperature is 33 or 34 degrees, the ground could still be well below freezing and as a result ice accretions would still be possible. As a result, I have included a chance for up to a quarter of an inch of ice accretion in the 3-6” zone of the map. In general, I think amounts will fall a bit lower than that, but we decided to be fairly bullish on the upper bound of icing because of the significant impacts that ice can have.

As far as timing goes, guidance is in relatively good agreement. . Precipitation approaches from the SW Saturday afternoon and overspreads the state from the mid afternoon on, increasing in intensity as we head towards the evening hours. By 7 PM or so, I’m expecting moderate snow to be falling across much of the state, with an inch or two on the ground for western areas and a bit less further east considering that precipitation will take longer to break out there.

As the storm moves northeast and gets us into the heavier precipitation, it will at the same time bring up a push of warm air from the south and begin to change areas over to rain. Generally, this transition will be from SE to NW, although likely a bit more dependent on latitude rather than longitude. By 10 PM at the latest, I expect that the transition to rain will have begun in the SE corner of the state, and it will continue to push NW through the evening and overnight.  By 1 AM, most of the state except for possibly the far NW corner will have gone over to a mix or rain. Precipitation moves out over the early morning hours on Sunday, and by 7 AM, all we’ve got left is some rain showers, which move out soon after.

Here’s a look at the progression of the system on the RGEM model, which I think has a good handle as far as timing and precipitation types go. Times are in GMT, so subtract 5 to convert to EST(So 00:00:00 is 7 PM our time).

Impacts

·         A plowable snowfall for the entire state
·         Tricky driving conditions later Saturday into Saturday night due to a combination of snow and ice.
·         Potential infrastructure issues, especially on roofs, due to the combination of existing snowpack weight, additional heavy wet snow and ice, and melting. Ice jams and roof collapses are possible.
·         Slippery surfaces Sunday evening from a flash freeze
·         Minor flooding possible depending on the amount of rain that we get and how warm we get Sunday as a result of both melting snowpack and clogged drains.

We’ll keep an eye on the guidance and issue a final call tomorrow with a revised map if needed and of course will be updating continuously throughout the event as always. Thank you for reading Southern Connecticut Weather!

-SA

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

Temperatures are currently falling off a cliff in the state, with most areas down into the single digits and plummeting towards below zero by morning. To make it feel even colder, we’ve wind gusts of 15-25 miles per hour across the state, resulting in wind chills in the negative single digits to low double digits statewide. These values will continue to drop, with temperatures bottoming out in the negative single digits and wind chills in the negative teens, and therefore the National Weather Service has issued a wind chill advisory for the entire state that is valid until mid-morning tomorrow(Friday).

One potential wildcard that’s worth mentioning is the potential for some icing. As of now, models agree that surface temperatures will get up into the 33-34 degree range once we flip to rain and as a result icing would appear to be no big deal, but I’m skeptical for two reasons. First off, models always overdo surface temperatures, especially in situations where we have a cold antecedent airmass like we do here, and secondly, ground temperatures are so cold from all the arctic shots that we’ve been experiencing that even if the two meter(the level at which surface temps are measured at) temperature is 33 or 34 degrees, the ground could still be well below freezing and as a result ice accretions would still be possible. We’ll continue to keep an eye on this as a possibility, and will keep you updated as we start to get a better picture of what that might entail on the guidance.

As far as impacts go, snow amounts should be relatively manageable, but still high enough to require the plows to come out, so that’s a strain on towns that have already had their snow budgets pushed to the max. One thing that we are concerned about is the potential for infrastructure issues depending on how much rain we do get after the initial snowfall. Unlike our last several storms, this will be a heavy wet snow, which combined with the weight of the current snowpack and additional water weight from rain may be enough to cause potential roof collapses and ice jams, especially if we do see some melting from this system. I’m not an expert on roofs by any means, but if you have a roof with a lot of snow on it, taking action of some sort is probably a good idea (If you aren’t 100% sure that you can remove snow from your room safely yourself, it’s best to contact a professional and avoid needless accidents).

Behind the storm, colder air moves back in for Sunday, likely sparking a flash freeze of any rain that did fall. That could make things very slippery, so use caution when you’re heading out! More frigid temperatures are expected to start next week(Highs in the teens are again possible for Monday and Tuesday) before a possible storm system approaches for the middle of next week. We’re a long way out on that one though, so we’ll leave it at a mention for now and touch on it a bit more as we get closer in if it’s still a legitimate threat.

Stay tuned for a snowmap to be issued tomorrow(Friday) along with an updated discussion. Until then, have a great night and thank you for reading Southern Connecticut Weather!

-SA

For tomorrow, we’re expecting sunny skies but frigid temperatures, with highs generally in the lower to mid teens. Wind chills will remain below zero the entire day however, so bundle up when you’re venturing out and try to limit the time that skin is exposed to prevent frostbite. Some school delays are possible tomorrow morning due to cold weather, although it’s difficult to pinpoint what the whims of each individual district will be.

All eyes then turn to Saturday as a system passes to our northwest and brings a mixed bag of precipitation to the state. Unlike our last several events, there is no block in place or high pressure to our north to keep warm air from being pulled north with the system, and as a result we have precipitation type issues to worry about. The first part of the day will be dry, with clouds building throughout the morning, but by the early afternoon, precipitation will begin to break out from southwest to northeast. All areas will initially start as snow, with a quick inch or two being seen in most spots by sunset.

What happens next depends on the timing of the system vs. the push of the warm air. As the system passes our latitude, we will be pushed into the warm sector of it, and the state will begin to change over to rain from SE to NW over the course of the evening and early overnight hours. At the same time however, precipitation intensity will begin to increase, and snowfall rates will pick up for those areas that remain all snow. Therefore, if the timing of the changeover is off by a relatively small margin, it can have a significant impact on the total snowfall amounts. In general, we’re expecting the lighest totals to be in the SE corner of the state, with the heaviest in the NW corner of the state, but the vast majority of areas should remain below that 6” threshold that would be required for a Winter Storm Warning to be issued. It’s possible that we could see some isolated totals of over 6”, especially if the system continues to trend colder and wetter, but I don’t think widespread warning criteria snows are likely.

All areas except for possibly the NW hills eventually change to rain overnight before precipitation moves out Sunday morning. I expect that by 7-10 AM on Sunday, the state is dry except for some isolated showers along the coastline, so really this system will have a relatively minor impact on your weekend plans.

Here’s a look at the timeline of the system on the NAM model, which is the model that I think has the best handle on the system right now. At 4 PM(The first panel), we’ve got light snow overspreading the state with a bit more moderate snow working into western areas. At 7 PM, we’ve got moderate snow across the state, but by 1 AM, the rain/snow line has shot up to encompass the entire state on the warm side except for the far northern tier, which is still mix or snow. By 7 AM, all the precipitation has moved out except for some lingering showers along the coastline, and we’re set up for a dry Sunday.