Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

After a seasonably chilly, but beautiful day, tomorrow is poised to be an even nicer day as we move toward the end of meteorological winter and the beginning of March. 

Although we are experiencing an early taste of spring, winter is not over! Additional chances for wintry precipitation are likely to remain through the middle of the month. In this discussion, I look at the week ahead, the month that’s been, and will try to give you a sense of the large scale pattern through the middle of March. 

Sunday
Pick of the week? Morning clouds should gradually give way to partly sunny skies as a backdoor cold front lifts north. Should it clear the state, with a southwest flow temperatures will climb into the 50s. Guidance isn’t as bullish on temperatures, but I think it will be a nice day overall. It will be breezy, especially near the shore. 
​
Monday
Unlike the day before, Monday brings the chance of showers as a storm system passes well to our north and a cold front clears the state. It looks to be another day in the 50s. Any rain that falls during the morning and afternoon it should clear the state by the evening hours. Breezy conditions continue. 

Tuesday
Most of Tuesday looks decent, with increasing clouds over the course of the day as our next storm system approaches from the west. A cold front will setup somewhere in New England, and there will be a pretty sharp temperature gradient. We will need to watch where the front ends up, but my money is on the front being north of the state, resulting in mild temperatures for the third straight day. 

GFS projection of temperatures around 1pm on Tuesday, can you spot the front? Image courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics. 

Wednesday 
Wednesday gets active again. A storm system will approach from the southwest. Guidance has been consistent on showing an inland track that is less than ideal for wintry precipitation. It is something worth casually watching, though. Odds are that this is an all rain event, and I don’t see much reason that will change over the next few days. It is interesting to note however, that the GFS earlier today did bring period of icing to northwest Connecticut on Wednesday morning. Again, worth watching, but I tend to think that the euro has the evolution more or less correct and that a storm to our west will not be able to produce a significant winter weather event. 

The GFS showing a period of wintry precipitation in the Litchfield hills on Wednesday morning. The european model, by comparison, is less bullish. 

Thursday/Friday
Thursday is our period of interest. With the prior system exiting, colder air comes in on the backside. This is key, as there are indications that a coastal storm may try to develop and approach from the south. Unlike the Wednesday event, this is a much more favorable track for a winter weather event, but currently it looks like a scrape to or miss. Given how far away we are, this bears watching. The euro is a bit slower with the progression of the coastal storm, but has a relatively similar idea as the GFS. The ensembles, which should be taken more seriously than the operational runs right now, are split on the evolution during this period. 

Saturday
Depending on the timing of the prior system, we are cleared out and back to seasonably cold conditions by Saturday.

Above is the GEFS individual member plot for snowfall. Remember that the ensembles essentially tweak initial conditions in each individual simulation to account for inherent errors. The mean, which is the average of these solutions, is the most important result and is the last image. It suggests that a few inches of accumulated snow falls between now and Saturday afternoon. It is not a robust signal for snow, but a signal nonetheless. 

The dailies:
Sunday: Mostly cloudy early with clearing during the day. Highs in the lower to mid 50s. 

Monday: Rain showers during the morning and early afternoon, with clearing by evening. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of precipitation 50%.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with increasing clouds and showers by evening. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of precipitation 50%.

Wednesday: Rain most of the day. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of precipitation 60%. 

​Thursday: SCW period of interest. Much colder. Highs near 40. Chance of wintry precipitation 20%. 

Friday: Sunny and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s. 

Saturday: Sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
​

Long Range Outlook 
I have to admit, I am looking toward spring at this point. February has been an interesting month, and this has been a season of oddities in this Super Nino. Between a meager subtropical jet, conditions that have allowed southwest CT to receive far more snow than climatologically favored areas in the state, and persistently warm temperatures, the winter of 2015-16 has been a challenging one for forecasters and snow lovers alike.

Although the state received more snow than average in the month of February, many parts of the state are below normal, and February is likely to end above normal in temperatures, again.

It is at this point in the year where two fundamental truths must be stated:

The annual march toward spring has begun. 

March is a transition month. 

March is a month in which Connecticut can definitively break toward spring, or it can be a month where winter fiercely holds on. Most of the time however, we rapidly move toward a warmer regime where it becomes harder for sustained wintry weather and temperatures.

Hartford Area
March 1 Average High—42
March 1 Average Low—24

March  31 Average High—54
March 31 Average Low—33

Average snowfall—8.3”

Bridgeport Area
March 1 Average High—43
March 1 Average Low—28

March  31 Average High—52
March 31 Average Low—36

​Average snowfall—5.2”​

In the long term, I see more of a roller coaster ride, with no definitive indications of extended wintry or spring like conditions. I see a few chances for wintry precipitation, as well as periods were we are above normal temperature wise. You can see this evolution in the 500mb GEFS plot posted below. Overall, there is no reason to call for colder than normal temperatures on balance during the first half of March.

GEFS temperatures in the Hartford area. Aside from a short period below normal, the pattern suggests temperatures near to above normal through the middle of March. The same applies for Bridgeport, which is plotted below. 

In the GEFS animation below, you see a seesaw like pattern, with no definitive large scale signal for deep winter or a fast break toward spring. 

Thank you for reading. Please like, share, follow us on Facebook, and on Twitter @SouthernCTWX! All you have to do is click below!
​
-DB

A storm system passing to our west will be remembered mostly as a rain storm.  But first, there will be a brief period of winter weather.  First, for tonight, temperatures may be a bit complicated, as we'll have an opportunity to radiate for the first half of the night, then clouds will increase ahead of the storm system.  In general, though, since most of the clouds will be of the high variety, think radiational cooling will be pretty good.  Low temperatures should range from the low 20s in the normally-colder spots, to around 30 along the south coast.

For tomorrow, overrunning (warm air moving on top of a cold air mass) will bring precipitation into the area.  Thermal profiles, especially aloft, are cold enough to support snow everywhere.  Right now, the timing looks to be from around noon in the southwest to mid afternoon in the northeast.  Most places will not see a lot of accumulation of snow.  Please refer to the snowmap at the end of the discussion.  In general, a statewide average for snowfall accumulations will be around an inch.  A few areas, such as in the Oxford-Waterbury hills may see a localized two inch amount.  Some locations east of Interstate 91 and South of Interstate 91 may not see any snow at all.  But in general, around an inch looks to be the best bet.  By rush hour, snow will be in the process of turning to rain along the south coast, and by midnight the changeover should be complete in the north.

 Then is the next problem.  Along the south coast, temperatures will probably be in the 33-35 degrees at their lowest point even when the snow is falling, and then only rise from there.  Therefore, most accumulations should be restricted to colder surfaces, and there is no concern about freezing rain.  However, further north, temperatures will probably fall into the 28-30 degree range, allowing snow to accumulate everywhere and also creating a small window of concern for freezing rain.  In general, the time frame in question is between 10 PM and 6 AM for freezing rain and freezing drizzle in these areas.  Fortunately, this is when traffic is the lowest.  However, with it being dark, it would be that much more dangerous for anyone driving.  Up to a tenth of an inch of ice could accumulate in those areas.

The only caveat would be if evaporational cooling allows temperatures to fall more than progged.  We'll need to keep an eye on dew points tomorrow to see how much the atmosphere may potentially cool.  This won't be resolved until the time of the event, unfortunately.

Phase Two of this storm will occur Wednesday, as the actual low pressure system tracking to our west spreads its precipitation into the area.  This precipitation should be all rain everywhere, as temperatures rise rapidly.  There will probably be a break between the two rounds of precipitation, during the late morning hours on Wednesday in the Southwest and midday hours in the Northeast.  However, timing and placing these breaks is often futile until the event begins.  There will also be lingering low level moisture during this time frame, so there could very well be spotty drizzle during this break.  Phase Two will then begin in earnest, with rain becoming steadier and heavier as the event goes on.  During Wednesday night (the timing is a bit uncertain still, so we'll just say during the night), there will also be numerous thunderstorms as the cold front nears.  Some of these thunderstorms could coalesce into a squall line late Wednesday night and produce wind gusts in excess of 50 MPH!  

As far as non-thunderstorm winds go during the event, it will be breezy tomorrow, but not overly windy. Winds will then diminish for a time on Wednesday (probably coincident with the break in the precipitation), then when the low center and cold front get closer, winds will increase rapidly with gusts up to 40 MPH.  As mentioned above, winds could gust in excess of 50 MPH with any stronger thunderstorms! In addition, very warm air will move into the state for a few hours Wednesday night! It is very probable that aside from a few sheltered valleys, most of the state exceeds 60 degrees for an hour or two!

Rain ends during the morning hours on Thursday, as the cold front passes.  The air immediately behind this cold front is not overly cold, so we still expect high temperatures to crack 50.  The combination of a second, stronger cold front's approach, and an upper level low will trigger more showers during the day Thursday.  Temperatures will begin to rapidly fall Thursday night and precipitation should begin to change to sleet and snow, but no accumulations are expected.

On Friday, much colder air will move in behind the front.  Once again, some snow showers are possible, especially up over the Litchfield Hills, where a dusting could accumulate.  Highs on Friday will generally be in the 40-45 degree range.

The weekend will generally be fair and tranquil, with temperatures pretty close to normal.  Saturday morning could briefly be quite cold, especially in the north, but daytime highs will likely be near 40 Saturday and in the low 40s Sunday.

Then on Monday, as a cold front approaches, temperatures may get briefly much warmer, followed by a shot of rain with the frontal passage.  Highs on Monday should approach 50 degrees, so any precipitation should be rain.

Looking further into the long range, blocking may develop in two key areas: one over the Western half of North America, and the other over Greenland, which could force us into a cold and potentially snowy pattern in the first ten days of March, so winter may not be done just yet!

Now, here are a few maps to illustrate the upcoming storm system graphically!

First, this is our snow and ice accumulation map.   As you can see, there won't be big accumulations anywhere, but icing is always dangerous.  Areas outlined in icing should use extra caution.

​

The next map is projected winds just above the surface, valid around midnight Wednesday night.  You can see winds are very strong just above the surface, and any stronger thunderstorms should bring down these strong winds!

Finally, the last map is total precipitation through Thursday afternoon.  As you can see, this event will be a significant precipitation maker- with over 2 inches for most of the state, except a little less in the north and west.

That's all for now!
​-GP!

Tonight, we’re watching a weak clipper pass through the region. It will be a quick hitter, and unlike clippers generally during the winter months, this one does not look like it will have the necessary cold air for a significant snow event. 

Perhaps this clipper is indicative of the winter we’ve had so far—close but no cigar (if you like snow)—but we turn quickly from this clipper to a warmer than normal weekend and then a potentially active week ahead. Let’s get down to business…

Overnight/Saturday
​As I noted previously, a weak clipper is passing through the region. It will be gone by mid-morning. Tonight, many should see a period of snow, but because this clipper is taking a northern track and not bringing significant cold with it, a fair amount of precipitation may be lost to plain old rain.

This RGEM run, which is perhaps more bullish than other model simulations, projects a period of snow and rain for many through part of tomorrow morning. 

As a result of the temperature issues, track of the clipper, and inherent issues with getting a significant amount of precipitation to fall with fast moving systems like this, most will see a minor to nonevent. The best chance of accumulating snow is in Litchfield County, but even there an inch or two of snow looks like a high bar. For the rest of Connecticut, maybe northern CT gets a coating to an inch by morning before being washed away if there is a changeover to rain. Southern Connecticut is unlikely to receive any meaningful wintry precipitation. ​

Saturday is not a terrible day however!

​Temperatures rebound nicely as the clipper departs and we transition to sunny skies! Temperatures in the 50s will feel like Spring! Get outside and enjoy it!

GFS temps around 1pm tomorrow. The Euro is a few degrees warmer than this and would put most solidly into the 50s!

Sunday
Sunday brings another warmer than normal day, with increasing clouds but slightly cooler temperatures. It is at this point that we turn toward our next potential event—another clipper. 

The GFS has no precipitation from this potential event, while the Euro brings a minor event. Like the current clipper that is poised to impact our area, temperatures are marginal at best overnight Sunday into Monday morning. As a result, I believe that we will see a period of light snow, but I do not believe it will be a very impactful event. We will be following closely in case things trend toward a colder and snowier solution, but right now I do not think that will occur. 

Monday/Tuesday 
​With the clipper departing by early Monday, we transition to a nice and seasonably cool period as a strengthening high pressure system builds in. Both should be solid days, with partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures near normal.

GFS projection of the weather on Monday, note the high pressure near the area—that signals a dry period on the way. 

Wednesday/Thursday 
By midweek, things become a lot more active. When I first started hearing the hype for next week, I was a touch surprised, given how often we’ve heard long range calls for winter storms this season in New England…which turned into rain events or misses. Sure enough, over the last few days the movement among guidance has been toward a convoluted event that produces more liquid than frozen. 

That is not to say that any storm will not trend colder, but I think we all have to take things with a grain of salt when 1) events are far out into the future (anything longer than 4 days out) and 2) the seasonal trend has been for ingredients just missing the mark for a truly widespread and major event, even during these last few active weeks. 

I’m breaking my own rule of showing an operational model run for something so far out, but since it shows rain I get to illustrate the setup without actually showing something worth hyping :p

GFS from Tuesday Morning through Friday Morning

Ok, so what do we see in this one run of one model?

Well, you see the first area of precipitation gathering in the south by Tuesday morning, and general movement toward the north. It remains a very weak area of low pressure, and moves through our region Wednesday, bringing a very brief period of wintry precipitation before going to rain. 

The second and far more robust area of low pressure comes right after it, but what do we see? We see a massive storm that cuts well to our west. As a result, the entire region is warm sectored and we rain—a lot. 

Ok. Now I want you to take the operational runs and toss them at this point--especially if you are trying to find out how much snow falls in your backyard next week.

​This far out, looking at the ensembles is the way to go. Remember that ensembles are just a number of simulations that each use different initial conditions to come to a solution. This helps us account for the inherent errors that come with trying to predict further into the future. 

This next map is going to be tough to look at but I’ll guide you through.

Focus on the first image. Here, you are looking at the GFS ensemble run for the same Tuesday morning through Friday morning period. This particular map however, shows the various pressure centers that come with each ensemble member and the spread between them. Each red number represents a low pressure center. The closer the numbers are together, the more confidence we have in a solution/pattern evolution because every individual ensemble member is showing something similar even with different starting points.

If you notice the black isobars, this represents that mean, or average of low pressure centers. Unlike the op run, this ensemble mean has a low pressure center closer toward the coast (note how the mean low pressure goes right over Long Island at the end of the image), meaning there is an increased probability of cold air being drawn in and hence, wintry precipitation. However, even in this ensemble run, that track is not ideal for a major winter storm. 

You can (hopefully) see this clearly in my second image, which is a pressure anomaly map. Note the mean low over NYC Thursday afternoon, with the door open for the low to end up significantly to our west or east. 

It is important to note that due to licensing restrictions I cannot post the truly meaningful data that I see from the european model and its ensembles. The Euro is more bullish, but even the euro and its ensembles do not have an ideal track at this time and I am skeptical of the overall pattern and ability for all the ingredients to come together for a major event.

Again, this far out, much can change, but for right now this is merely something worth casually watching given the potential. Until further notice I am bearish on this threat as well. 

Friday 
Regardless of what happens, by Friday it looks like everything clears out and we return to nice and seasonable conditions. 

The dailies:
Friday night: A chance of rain and snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the upper 20 to low 30s. Chance of precipitation 60%. Little to no accumulation for most. Coating to an inch or two in Litchfield County. 

Saturday: Rain and snow ending early, mostly cloudy skies clearing over the course of the day. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of precipitation 30%.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain/snow by late evening. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of precipitation 50%.

Monday: A chance of rain or snow early. Turning mostly sunny over the course of the day. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with increasing clouds by evening. A chance of snow overnight. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 50%.

Wednesday: SCW period of interest. Highs near 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%. 

Thursday: SCW period of interest. Precipitation ending early and increasing sun by afternoon. Highs near 40. Chance of precipitation 30%. 

Friday: Sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. 

Thank you for reading! Our next update will be coming this weekend as we gather additional information on the Monday clipper and period of interest midweek.

As always, don't forget to like our posts, share, ask questions, and become part of the SCW family on both Facebook and Twitter @SouthernCTWX.

​-DB

​Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
We’re in the calm after the storm for most of the upcoming forecast period, with generally mild temps and clear skies expected for the majority of the forecast period before things begin to look more active next week. As a result of that and the late hour which I write, tonight’s update will be a bit on the shorter side, with much more detail to follow on these systems, should they remain on guidance, in the coming days!
 
Tomorrow will likely be the coldest day of the forecast period, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, about 5-10 degrees below normal across the state. We’ll see mostly sunny skies,  so with the February sun angle, it should be quite pleasant out. Friday will bring more sunshine and warmer temps to the state, with highs right around normal in the upper 30s. Cloud cover starts to build Friday evening as a clipper system passes to our north, and we could see some light snow or rain across the state Friday night or Saturday morning, especially in the northern tier. 

The weekend looks cloudy, but very mild, with highs in the 40s to near 50 expected both Saturday and Sunday! We will see some breaks in the clouds at times, especially on Sunday, so between that and the warm temps, it will be a beautiful weekend to be outside enjoying the early spring-like weather!
 
Our first chance for significant precipitation comes from a clipper system diving down from Alberta Sunday night into Monday. Modeling is split on how to handle this system, with some runs taking the low well to our south and shearing it out under high pressure, while some runs allow for a low pressure system to develop south of Long Island and as a result bring some heavier precipitation into our area. As of now, precipitation type looks like it would marginally support snow, especially away from the coastline, should the second solution verify, but considering the lead time and model variances, I am hesitant to be bullish on this system for chances of sufficient snowfall, especially considering that the trend for both this season and for clipper systems in general has been for north shifts in the final runs to verification, which would put us under the low and bring mainly rain to the area. As such, will forecast a chance of rain and snow for Sunday night and Monday and allow the next forecaster to work out the details as we see more guidance.

Here's a look at the 12z and 0z GGEM, the 12z showing the further north option while the 0z shows the sheared out option.

Right behind this system comes the potential for a more significant system as a low comes up the coastline midweek next week. Model guidance has excellent consensus on the idea of a large system in the area around this time, however, it differs greatly on it’s track. The GFS runs the system up the Hudson Valley and brings mainly rain to our area after an initial burst of snow, while the GGEM and Euro are much colder due to a well-placed Canadian high to our north and the system tracking off the coastline as a result. Under that scenario, we would see an initial thump of snow,  likely a changeover to sleet or freezing rain, and then a return to snow as the system pulled away. As of now, considering the model variability and lead time, I will not attempt to make any sort of decisions on which track to favor and will call for a chance of rain and snow from Tuesday night through Wednesday, but considering the difficulty of getting a large coastal storm to verify this winter, I caution those who jump on this too quickly… Much more to come should this system continue to be a threat!
 
Here are the dailies:
 
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs around 30.
 
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 30s.
Friday night: A chance of rain or snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation is 40%
 
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a slight chance of rain or snow. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation is 20%
 
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 40s.
 
Monday: A chance of rain or snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation is 40%
 
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 30s.
Tuesday night: A chance of snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation is 40%
 
Wednesday: A chance of rain or snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs around 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%
 
Have a great Thursday and thanks for reading SCW!
-SA

It might be hard to believe, but after widespread lows from -5 to -15 across the state this morning, a storm is on the way, and for much of the state, the majority of precipitation from that storm will be in liquid form.

Tonight: High pressure in control.  Low temperatures will be a bit tricky, because some clouds are expected to arrive later at night.  Clouds should spread in from SW to NE after midnight.  Tonight could be a night where Tolland and Windham Counties have the coldest low temperatures, since the clouds could very well take the longest to get there.  Even having said that, the clouds will be of the high variety when they first get here, so even if there are some clouds, radiational cooling will still be possible, although it won't be as strong.  Weighing all these options results in low temperatures ranging around zero degrees, with mid single digits above zero along the south coast to mid single digits below zero in Tolland and Windham Counties.

Tomorrow: Complicated forecast for a few reasons.  First, timing the arrival of precipitation.  Right now, a consensus timing would say that snow develops around mid afternoon in the southwest to around dinner time in the northeast.  Next, high temperatures.  Temperatures will be starting off very low, as mentioned in the "tonight" section and it will be generally cloudy tomorrow.  However, we will have strong warm air advection.  Also, precipitation with overrunning (warm air riding on top of cold air) tends to arrive faster than progged.  However, the air mass is currently extremely dry (near record low dew points) and this could hurt that factor.  Also, how heavy will the snow be when it first starts? Will it just be several hours of flurries or will it come in and snow like mad for a few hours? All of these factors may not be answered until the last minute with nowcasts, and there are factors on the "pro" and "con" sides to each one of these.  For now, the best way to go is to call for high temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s with snow arriving in the timetable I outlined.  Precipitation will start out as all snow everywhere.

Tomorrow Night (will be separating tomorrow night from Tuesday, as is against my convention, but for good reason this time): Another complicated forecast.  Snow will change to a wintry mix and then rain from south to north through the night.  Snowfall accumulations will be determined based on a few things... First, how hard does the snow come down when it first arrives (as outlined above)? Will the snow start a few hours earlier than progged?  These two are important, because they could affect the amounts of snow, even if the changeover time (generally 3 to 6 hours after the start time) is hit perfectly.  Another factor to consider (and this is more important for icing, rather than snow, since this affects the surface temperature more than anything else), is, if the air is still dry, could evaporational cooling cause a sudden drop in surface temperatures that models are not handling right now? At this time, I feel snowfall totals will range from a coating to two inches across most of the state(With some local jackpots of up to 3" possible), with two to four inches in the northwest portion of the state. In the coating to 2" zone, the 1" amounts will probably be more common right along the Long Island Sound, especially in southeast Connecticut, with 2" and even some 3" amounts more common in northern areas.  In the northwest zone zone, the 2" amounts would be more common next to the 1-3" zone, and a few 5" totals may not be out of the question in the Litchfield Hills (they will have the advantage of being far enough west to get into the heavy precipitation earlier, but far enough north and higher elevation to keep the column cool enough longer).

​Here's our forecast snowmap for this event.
​

The next question will be icing.  Models generally have a bias of getting the cold air out faster than reality, especially in sheltered valleys away from the coast.  We may have to wait for the super short range models, like the HRRR and RAP to really have a good handle on this.  There really isn't much of a mechanism to hold the cold air in, since there really isn't a damming high to the north.  On the other hand, as I mentioned previously, any lingering dry air can help create this problem, by cooling the surface evaporatively as precipitation breaks out.  A faster onset of heavier precipitation would help this to occur.  For now, thinking most icing near the coast is minimal (but keep in mind, it doesn't take much ice to create problems).  West is best if you want icing, and the highest probability of seeing several hours of icing would be in sheltered valleys in the Northwestern part of the state, given the storm tracking well to the west of the area.  Yet another idea to ponder is that the recent Arctic outbreak has left the ground frozen solid.  It isn't inconceivable that rain could still freeze on contact when the surface is 33 or 34 degrees.

Another concern will be flooding.  The aforementioned frozen ground is conducive to flooding, because water does not run off a frozen ground.  We'll have fresh melting snow in all of the state and some existing snowpack in some areas to exacerbate the problem, as well.  With total precipitation amounts of 1-2" expected, this could produce a flood problem, and is also something that will need to be monitored.

As we head into Tuesday morning, the entire state will be raining by then and melting off whatever snow or ice has fallen.  There could even be a line of thunderstorms Tuesday morning! This storm will already produce wind gusts in the 40 MPH range from the pressure gradient alone.  Aloft are very strong winds, in the 60-70 MPH range and higher! If we get any thunderstorms, some (not all) of those winds could mix down and some brief strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, especially along the south coast! This is the first time I ever remember going from well below zero temperatures to possible strong thunderstorms in 48 hours, but that is why I love meteorology: It changes constantly and you never know what you are going to get! Rain pulls out by around rush hour on Tuesday evening.  Temperatures may show a wide range.  Most predominant temperatures will be in the 50-55 degree range, but some sheltered valleys in the Northwest could be stuck in the low 40s all day, and the SE coast may make a run for 60!

The longer term is largely quiet.  Not much energy was given to this section due to the fact that we have a storm in the day 1-2 time frame and the fact that it will be largely a quiet period.  

In the long term, temperatures should be at or below normal for Wednesday and Thursday.  A warm frontal system moves through Thursday night into early Friday morning, and sparks a round of light precipitation.  This could produce minor snow and sleet accumulations, especially away from the coast.

After that, the coming weekend should become increasing warm, with some normally warmer locations, i.e. southern locales away from the coast and interior valleys making a run for 60 degrees on Sunday!

However, briefly looking into the long range, it does look like winter makes a return, perhaps in a big way, with more cold and snow threats, beginning around February 22-24 and perhaps lasting well into March- stay tuned!

Now, here are some maps, regarding the upcoming storm.

This map is the GFS model's total precipitation for the upcoming storm- rain, snow, and ice combined.  You can see most of the state is 1-2" of precipitation, with the extreme Southwest possibly in excess of 2".
​

This map shows the winds a few thousand feet above the surface.  You can see that if any stronger thunderstorms did occur along the south coast, there is the potential for locally strong wind gusts! Spencer will be adding a snowmap to this, as well!
-GP!