Disc: A very springlike pattern continues.  We are currently watching a tornado outbreak across the Midwest.  The springlike pattern will end this week, and be replaced by a more wintry pattern.   Some light snow is possible Friday.  Thereafter, it’s still too early to pinpoint any chances of snow, but there will be a lot more cold air around, and it may have more staying power!

Currently: A cold front extended from near El Paso to the Quad Cities area.  Meanwhile, a warm front extended eastward into NW PA.  This combination will bring unsettled weather to the state tomorrow.

Tonight: For tonight, areas of fog will be possible along the immediate south coast.  Otherwise, expect a generally cloudy night, with temperatures not going anywhere in a hurry.  Right now, most of the rain associated with the warm front is south of the region, so the south coast will have the best chance of seeing measurable rain overnight.  The best chances of any rain would be centered around midnight.  If it rains, it would actually be a good thing, in terms of limiting any fog potential.  As far as temperatures, don’t expect temperatures to fall very much.  Temperatures will be pretty uniform across the state, in the upper 40s, except some 40-45 degree readings on the immediate southeast coast, due to onshore flow.
 
Tomorrow: A lot depends on how fast the morning rain clears out and how much sun we get.  This will determine how warm we can get and how much destabilization can occur to allow a strong line of showers and thunderstorms to hit the region.  Models have cooled with respect to temperatures today vs. yesterday.  The NAM model is warmer than the rest of the guidance, and I will use it about 2/3 of the way, in deference to the pattern of the past couple weeks.  With that in mind, an air mass shower or thunderstorm is possible at any time.  Then, as the cold front approaches, a more solid line of showers and thunderstorms approach later in the day and at night.  Timing is not ideal, as the frontal passage occurs a bit too late for most of the state to really capitalize on severe weather.  However, if we can get warm, temperatures will not fall significantly during a cloudy night.  Additionally, dew points will be quite high.  This could sustain instability longer than otherwise possible.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire state in a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms.  The map will be posted below.  As for temperatures, keeping in mind what I said earlier, expect highs to range from near 60 (probably not getting out of the 50s near GON), to the upper 60s in the CT Valley.

Tomorrow Night and Thursday: Lingering showers and thunderstorms pull out after midnight.  Thereafter, much cooler air will filter in.  Timing will be the key to forecasting low temperatures tomorrow night.  It doesn’t really matter either way… temperatures likely won’t rise much during the day Thursday.  Thursday afternoon’s temperatures will be in the 45-50 degree range.  With winds gusting to 40-45 MPH at times, it will feel significantly colder.

Long Term: The weekend and beyond: The first issue of the long term is an Alberta Clipper system for the daytime hours on Friday.  This clipper system will produce a narrow swath of snow.  Under the heaviest bands, some bursts of moderate to heavy snow are possible.  Most guidance keeps the bulk of the snow south of the area.  However, the south coast may be close enough to get a small accumulation.  High temperatures on Friday will not make it to 40 in most locations.  Combine that with wind gusts to 35-40 MPH and it will feel very cold!

The next issue for the weekend will be an Arctic outbreak for Friday night into Sunday morning.  Although the weather will be fair, it will be very cold with lows in the teens and even some single digits Saturday and Sunday mornings! Saturday’s high temperatures will likely stay in the 20s.  Sunday’s highs should approach 40.  There is the potential for a few  snow showers later in the day on Sunday, as a warm front approaches.

Monday and Tuesday should see the weather turn warmer, with temperatures at or just above normal.  A storm will likely bring some rain to the region on Tuesday.  Beyond that, as we head deeper into the long range, the overall pattern will turn much colder.  Then we’ll wait and see if any winter threats await us.

Now, let’s take a look at some of the systems that will be affecting the state this week, in a graphical format.  First, this is the convective outlook for tomorrow from the Storm Prediction Center.  Notice that the Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire state in a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms.
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The next image is a model output for Friday's Alberta Clipper.  Note that the heaviest snow remains south of the state, but the south coast can get clipped by some accumulating  snow.

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That's all for now... have a great rest of your week! 

-GP!

Disc: A very warm, spring like pattern in the means will continue for about one more week, before a much more wintry pattern takes hold, just as we head into the first month of meteorological spring!

Currently: High pressure is in its typical summer position, stretching from Bermuda to the mountains of NC.  This is responsible for the abnormally warm weather across the state.
Tonight: Temperatures could be a little bit tricky depending on cloud cover.  When it clears up, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop.   All in all, not expecting too much variance with low temperatures tonight- generally going with 35 to 40 across the state.

Tomorrow: Temperatures will depend on cloud cover once again.  Also, with a southerly flow, areas near the south coast are more likely to see cooler temperatures, due to sea breezes.  Highs should range from the low 50s along the south coast and approach 60 over the CT valley.

Tomorrow Night and Friday… There will be a chance of showers and maybe even an elevated thunderstorm with a warm frontal passage at basically any time during the overnight hours.  Otherwise, skies will then clear on Friday, and perhaps yield the warmest day of the week, with even muggy dew points! The only exception to this will be along the south coast, where the onshore flow will intensify.  Temperatures could have a big range on Friday, ranging from the low 50s on the south coast to the mid 60s in the CT valley.

Long Term (The weekend and beyond): On Saturday, a cold front will approach later in the day and at night.  Most models weaken any convection associated with this front before it reaches the Hudson River, so that our state will only see a quick round of showers with the frontal passage during the evening hours.  Before that time, another very warm day is expected, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s.  Temperatures should be more uniform  on Saturday, since there will be a more westerly component to the wind flow ahead of the cold front.

On Sunday, skies will clear and temperatures will be closer to normal levels behind the front.  It will also become quite windy, with gusts between 30 and 40 MPH possible.

A system then needs to be watched for the later Monday into Tuesday period.  Main questions with this system are: How far north does the northern edge of the precipitation shield make it? And how much wintry precipitation is associated with the low, if any? Right now, there is a small potential for a light wintry event along the south coast and perhaps just inland from there.  Of course, a lot of questions still remain at this juncture, but there is actually decent model agreement.
​
Beyond that, it appears there will be one more spring-like system Tuesday night into early Wednesday, possibly with record warmth accompanying it, before the pattern really nosedives into a winter pattern, with some snow threats, and perhaps even a night or two of record or near record cold temperatures as we head deeper into March! We had spring in February, so maybe we’ll have winter in March!

Now, let's take a look at some of the weather slated to affect our area in a graphical format.  First, let's take a look at the cold front headed for our area Saturday night.

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Next, we'll look at the CPC upper air prog, based on the 12Z GFS Ensembles, valid March 5.  Notice this is a pattern like the winter of 2014 or 2015, and not what we've had this winter!

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That's all for now! Have a great rest of your week! 

​-GP!

Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
Welp, winter arrived in force. We had a week that put us squarely on track to finish the meteorological winter near normal with regard to snowfall. However, winter’s stay, as it has been for much of the season, was brief. We’re already looking at a period of above to well above normal temperatures and no legitimate winter weather events in sight. This’ll be a short outlook.
 
Grading my last outlook
Unlike our temperatures, I’ve cooled off since my hot start at the beginning of meteorological winter. It’s not that I got beaten overwhelmingly this time around, but I definitely missed in week two with regard to our wintry period. In my defense, I did say that that week was really low confidence. Overall, I give my outlook a B-.
 
Week one—Wednesday February 1 to Tuesday February 7
Temperatures—above average (moderate confidence) Check
Precipitation—near average (high confidence) Check
Wintry Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence) Check
 
Week two—Wednesday February 8 to Tuesday February 14
Temperatures—above average (low confidence) Fail
Precipitation—near average (low confidence) Fail
Wintry Precipitation—near average (low confidence) ​Fail
 
Forecast Period Outlook Summary
 * Note—high confidence (70% or greater belief of event occurring), moderate confidence (36-69%), low confidence (0-35%); nothing significant (less than 1” snowfall and .25” ice)
 
Forecast period—Saturday February 18 to Tuesday February 28
Temperatures—above average (moderate confidence)
Precipitation—above average (moderate confidence)
Wintry Precipitation—below average (moderate confidence)
 
It looks like a reprieve from winter is here and will last the rest of the month. There could be a sneaky cold shot at the beginning of next week, but overall, it looks like a warmup is coming and it could be a significant one. As we head into the last few days of February however, we could be looking at signs of a return to cooler conditions. In terms of precipitation, I expect an active period. Right now however, it looks like we’re talking more wet than white, with the predominant storm track being one that cuts to our west. It’s been that kind of winter. That said, we saw last week how a well timed storm and pattern could produce in a big way. I’m leaving the door open for a potential return to winter after our warmup.

Technical Discussion

Looking at the GEFS above, it's easy to see why I think we're in a likely warmup phase. For the overwhelming majority of the period, we're either warm or approaching torch territory. Nothing like the midwest though, which will see temperatures at least 15-20 degrees above normal for a period.

Since the 9th, Hartford has received nearly 22 inches of snow! Not bad. The pattern gave us a short taste of what can be done when you have a good upper level pattern. That resulted in a series of powerful storms that buried much of New England in feet of snow. However, that window has since closed. Now, we’re looking at ridging setup to our south. 

The 00z EPS went big with the pattern switch to a warmup. By mid week, we have a very impressive area of ridging and higher heights right in our area. That is a strong signal. As the month begins to wind down however, it looks like we go toward more of a zonal flow, which may open the door for a cooler and more active period. Maybe.  

Images above and below courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics. 

I do think we become more active, but as I mentioned earlier, I think the preferred track of low pressure systems will be to our west. With not much cold in place during this period, I expect the majority of those systems to be all rain. Hard to rule out a brief period of mixed precipitation at onset if conditions are right, but as of this post, I don't see anything significant on the horizon in terms of wintry weather. 

With meteorological winter winding down, this may be the last two week outlook for the season. I'll reevaluate the pattern once we get to March. 

As always, don’t forget to like us on Facebook and share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx and retweet our posts!
 
Thanks for reading SCW.​
 
-DB

​Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
It’s certainly been an active period in Connecticut, with two significant snowstorms reminding us that yes, it is winter in New England. However, winter looks to be on hold for a little while, as a tranquil pattern looks to take place for the long weekend into next week. As such, we’ll keep this discussion short and sweet.
 
Friday-Sunday
 
Tomorrow should be the coldest day of the forecast period, with highs in the mid 30s and lows Saturday morning being in the upper teens to lower 20s.  Much warmer air arrives for the weekend though, with highs in the mid to upper 40s on Saturday and into the 50s on Sunday! Combined with abundant sunshine, it should feel like a taste of spring this weekend.
 
Monday-Tuesday
 
A sneaky backdoor cold front comes in to start the week, taking highs back down to the mid to upper 30s for Monday and the low to mid 40s for Tuesday. While some clouds are possible on Tuesday as a weak system moves north well to our west, I don’t expect any precipitation from this front.
 
Wednesday-Thursday
 
A few scattered showers are possible on Wednesday as the aforementioned system passes to our northwest, but otherwise, the main theme of the extended will be very warm temperatures ahead of our next cold front. The GFS suggests that highs could make it into the 60s next Thursday! More seasonable temps should return for the end of the week into next weekend, along with the next period of interest for some activity. Don will have more on the extended in his latest two week outlook tomorrow!

​The Dailies
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 30s.
Saturday: Sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 40s.
Sunday: Sunny, with highs in the low to mid 50s.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
 
A bit of a boring read tonight, but then again, we’re entering a boring (yet enjoyable) period. Have a wonderful holiday weekend and thank you for reading SCW! –SA