Disc: For a few days, some of the longer range modeling began to look more wintry.  However, as I began saying in early Feb, it's better to ignore that unless it suddenly gets within 4 days or less.  And, like clockwork, as soon as it got closer, it vanished, for the most part.

Currently: Strong low pressure extends from NNE into SE Quebec.  This is the same storm that gave us heavy showers early this morn.  This system will not move out of the way very quickly.  So winds will stay up across the region, and just diminish very slowly over the next few days.

Tonight: Temps should be pretty uniform tonight across the area, due to the fact that winds should stay up.  Because of this, will split the guidance across the board.  Expect low temperatures generally in the low 20s, with a few mid 20s along the S coast and a few upper teens in the NW hills.  Winds should gust up to 35 MPH for most of the night, so bundle up if headed out!

Tomorrow: With cold air advection still ongoing, I think the colder NAM guidance looks more correct.  I don't think anyone in the state gets to 40 degrees.  With that in mind, temps should stay in the upper 30s across the state.   Winds could still gust to 30 MPH at times, intensifying the chill in the air.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: The combination of clouds, and still ongoing cold air advection (winds should still gust up to 30 MPH), will keep temps down.  I'll go a solid 3 to 5 degrees below all temp guidance and call for highs generally within a few degrees of the freezing mark.  In the NW Hills, temps may not get out of the 20s! There is also the chance of a passing snow flurry, as a weak upper level system passes overhead.

Long Term (Sun and beyond): Winds finally begin to diminish Sunday.  With high pressure directly overhead, other than a few minor geographic tweaks here and there, I don't see any reason to fight with guidance.  Highs should be in the mid to upper 30s.

On Monday, a warm front should spread light precip into the area late in the afternoon.  Originally, guidance showed cold air holding on and a threat for light, but widespread, wintry precip across the area.  However, beginning yesterday, guidance shifted significantly warmer, to the tune of 10-15 degrees at all levels! It is not surprising, considering the way this "winter" has gone.  So I will be adjusting the fcst accordingly.  Guidance is now in good agreement on this sceneario, so any precip that falls will be rain.  High temps should be into the mid to upper 40s across the state- far too warm for anything other than rain.

Unsettled weather will continue for a couple more days next week.  Rain is likely on Tuesday, with a good period of moderate rain probable in the afternoon.  With low-level moisture lingering, I wouldn't be surprised if light rain/drizzle hung around earlier in the day, as well.  Because of this, I went a tad lower than temp guidance.  Even so, highs should get close to 50 degrees, with even lower 50s possible along I 91.

Occasional rain will continue on Wednesday.  Being that we're far out still, I don't want to concentrate on timing, especially with model differences.  Some models say the heaviest rain is at night, while others have it in the morning.  The bottom line is  I wouldn't be making many outdoor plans for Wed if you don't want to get wet! As for temps, I'll take guidance down by 3-5 degrees, with clouds and rain now expected for most of the day.  Even so, high temperatures should still make the upper 40s.

I'll keep Thu dry for now.  It looks like rain pulls out early in the morn, similar to what happened today.  There could be a brief flurry in the ensuing cold air advection, but it's too far out to mention at this time.  
Since the cold air advection does not seem overly strong, I won't deviate too much from guidance.  Looks like highs in the mid 40s, except low 40s in the NW hills.  Could see wind gusts of 35-40 MPH once again in the cold air advection.

In the long range, I don't see anything overly exciting.  Although in the means, it looks like temps may actually avg blo norm, every time a storm comes, they tend to warm up, with the mean storm track still to our west.  I wouldn't say that we're not getting any snow at all the rest of the way thru, as we still have all of Mar and the beginning of Apr to go, but obviously, it becomes harder and harder to get snow and tends to favor the NW hills more the deeper we head into Mar.

Climate: I have some interesting climate statistics to share.  Keep in mind, these statistics are NYC-centric, but SW CT is not far from NYC and the weather is really not all that different.  Obviously, this has not been a snowy winter.  However, there have been several winters that have had less snow.  What is  more remarkable is that, as far as reliable data that I could find, unless we get a bigger event in Mar or Apr (and it won't take much to do so), this will be the smallest "biggest event" of the season,  Even the snowless winters had most or all of the snow coming out of one event.  This winter the snow we did get was spread out across tiny events.

In addition, as you probably know, it has been a very warm winter.  However, the total number of days that have exceeded 50 degrees (which we usually use to delineate very warm winter days) has not been that far from normal.  We have just seen an extreme overabundance of days that were in the 45-50 degree range.  It has been a strange winter!

Anyway, getting back on topic, let's get a graphical look at weather systems slated to affect the area in the upcoming week.  Monday's total precip should be less than a tenth of an inch, so I won't post that.  Since we have two separate systems training to produce rain in the Tue-Wed time frame, I'll post one of each of those.  You can see on this map, there is a low pressure system over Srn NYS, with a good moisture plume over CT. 

Finally, this last map is for Wednesday's rain.  Verbatim, this guidance keeps most of the moisture south of the state, and would favor the S coast, if anything.  However, the fact that the ridge offshore has been so strong, I am inclined to believe that this comes further N.

Anyway, that's all for now! See you again next week!

-GP!

Good evening from SCW. 

This will be a short discussion. The nice stretch of weather will continue through tomorrow, with what looks like the pick of the week! We will see a seesaw type week, starting out warm and dry and transitioning to unsettled before cool and dry conditions by the end of the week. 

The latest snow depth map issued by the NERFC. Even this map is a bit generous. There is virtually no snow in southern New England. 

Monday
Tomorrow looks fantastic. We should see sunny skies and highs in the 50s at the shoreline and near 60 inland! It will be a wonderful taste of spring, with temperatures nearly 20 degrees above normal. If it's not going to snow, we might as well embrace the warmth. 

Tuesday-Thursday
The middle of the week looks unsettled. We will see a series of low pressures traverse the region, each bringing slightly cooler (but still above normal) conditions and rain. Tuesday looks to be the start of this period, though I do not think it is a washout. Rain may actually hold off until the evening hours. The same is true for Wednesday, in the sense that I don't think we see a washout, but it'll be worth having the umbrella. 

Thursday looks wet, at least during the early hours. A relatively strong area of low pressure will develop and bring rain to the region. Timing is still a bit uncertain, but for now, at least the morning should have some rain showers around. As the low departs, I do expect breezy conditions. That said, I don't think we're looking at a high end wind event. 

Friday-Sunday
In the wake of the departing storm, we will see colder conditions enter the region. Friday through Sunday currently look dry and colder, with some continued breezy conditions on Friday giving way fairly quickly depending on how fast the storm moves away. There are no signals for any winter storms for the foreseeable future. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. Highs in the low 50s at the shore to low 60s inland. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 60%

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Breezy. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of rain 70%. 

Friday: Decreasing clouds and breezy. Much cooler. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 30s. 

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 30s.

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​ 

Disc: It is looking more and more like CT snow lovers may have to wait until the winter of 2020-21 to see a widespread large event (meaning widespread 6"+ throughout the state).  We still have the end of Feb, all of Mar, and even early Apr, but as the days tick by and the pattern does not change, it gets one day closer until the end of winter.  And with each passing day, temp normals rise and chances of snow diminish.

Currently: High pressure over Srn PA will keep fair wx over the state for the next few days.   A sprawling storm system across the Gulf Coast states will slide ENE, due to the high pressure being so far S, and will not affect the area.

Tonight: Will need to monitor cloud deck from Srn storm across the S coast.  This could keep temps higher there and limit radiational cooling.  Otherwise, a chilly night.  I'll stay fairly close to guidance tonight, but go a bit cooler here and there.  It's a bit of a risk, esp along the S coast, but most guidance has the cloud deck thinning out by midnight, allowing at least half a night's worth of radiational cooling.  I don't really see a reason to deviate.

Tomorrow: Sunny and a cold winter's day.  Guidance looks pretty good.  With full sun and near neutral advection, I'll side toward the warmer GFS guidance.  High temperatures should generally be within a few degrees of 30, but 30-35 is possible along the I 91 corridor.

Tomorrow night/ Sat: As high pressure moves offshore, return flow sets up, allowing warmer air to funnel into the region.  The NAM and GFS guidance are worlds apart, with the GFS much warmer.  I'll side toward the GFS guidance, given good downsloping and full sun.  However, I will subtract a degree or two, maybe more than that along the S coast.  Localized sea breezes should set up, which should make for temp uniformity.  Look for highs in the 40 to 45 degree range.

Long Term (Sun and beyond): The main period of interest in the long-term period will be Tuesday to Thursday.  This period centers around a two-part storm system.  But until we get there, Sunday should be a beautiful sunny day, Guidance looks reasonable, I may tweak it upward a degree or two in spots with full sun and again a downslope component to the wind.  Highs should get close to 50 degrees, except maybe elevated spots N of I 84 staying in the mid 40s.

Clouds will increase on Monday, but no precip is expected.  In fact, most precip should hold off until Tuesday morning.  It's not entirely impossible for some sprinkles/drizzle very late Mon night, but either way Mon daytime is nice.  Temp guidance looks spot on given the time of year and 850 mb temps, so I see no reason to be too cute and make modifications that are not necessary.  Expect highs near 50 degrees, except into the low 50s along I 91.

On Tuesday, expect a rainy day.  This first part of the storm is not really much of a concern for frozen precip anywhere, as it tracks well west of the area.  Rain should fall pretty much all day Tuesday, with the heaviest rain centered around late in the day.  My only concern with the fcst for this day is high temps.  As is usual this time of year, when a relatively weak low tracks well to the west, the warm front does not just blast thru, despite what models insist.  Therefore, I'll go a good 3-6 degrees below guidance and keep highs in the mid to upper 40s.

There should be a decent break on Wednesday.  At this point, I think the majority, if not the whole day, on Wednesday, should be dry.  However, there won't be much sun. as clouds from the departing system and clouds from the incoming system combine to keep it generally cloudy.  The GFS guidance does not seem to realize it will be cloudy, so I'll shave a good 5 degrees off its' printout.  Therefore, expect highs near 50 degrees.

Finally, the next storm system affects the area later Wednesday into Thursday, with the heaviest precipitation falling before dawn Thursday.  Guidance has waffled around with this system, with some guidance hinting at a chance to some snow.  Given the pattern this year, I prefer to lean on the rainier side of things, with the best chances for snow being N of I 84.  I'll shave a couple degrees off the GFS guidance, but even doing this yields highs in the 40 to 45 degree range.  Colder weather should move into the area the following weekend.

Looking into the long range, I don't see any major changes to the overall long range pattern.  Temps may not be quite as warm, relative to normal. heading into March, but normals are much higher.  I also do not see any sustained (more than 3 day) cold weather, either.  Overall, the pattern does look stormier than normal, but this overall pattern would favor mainly rain events.

Now, let's look at a few graphical examples of systems slated to affect the area this week.  I'll show next week's "duo", since there really isn't anything happening until then.  On this image, valid midday Tuesday, you can see rain overspreading the state.  A weak low into Pittsburgh probably won't allow the warm front to make it through, which is why I went lower than guidance on temperatures.

​

Finally we'll take a look at the second system in the "duo", slated for later Wednesday into early Thursday.  Taken literally, this map would be heavy rain and high winds, and maybe just a hint of snow for the north country, but being that it's so far out, we'll take that with a grain of salt.

​

Anyway, that's all for now! I'll see you next week with potentially some interesting climate statistics regarding this winter.

-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

Happy President's Day! For those of you that had the holiday off, I hope you had a good and relaxing day. Today was another beautiful and well above normal day temperature wise. As I alluded to yesterday, the week ahead is looking quiet, with the exception of tomorrow. Let's jump in. 

GFS Ensembles above showing a drier than normal period for the next seven days. 

Tuesday
Tomorrow may be the only day we see precipitation the rest of the week, as a disturbance passes well to our north. You know what that means...rain. While there may be a few flakes on the front end of this system as precipitation move in during the morning, we're expecting virtually all rain. This will be a quick mover, and certainly not a washout of a day, but it will be useful to have your umbrella handy. The rain should move out during the overnight hours. 

Wednesday-Friday
The cloud cover may linger a bit, but Wednesday is looking like the start of a decent dry period. The thing that will be noticeable will be the temperature changes. Unlike our warm period (well, really the entire winter) we should see temperatures drop off as we get a cool shot. Thursday and Friday look like the coldest days, with highs struggling to reach freezing. It will likely be breezy as well, with northwest flow filtering in the cold air. 

GFS depiction of temperatures Thursday through Saturday. Note that our cold shot doesn't have a lot of staying power, as by Saturday we're back up near to above normal. 

Saturday-Monday
The period continues to look quiet, as I expect dry conditions and moderating temperatures. By next week, we're probably following our next system, but looking at the long range I am inclined to believe that any hope of significant wintry conditions will not visit us until we've reached March.

The Dailies
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain 80%. 

Wednesday: Decreasing clouds. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny and breezy, cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. 

Friday: Mostly sunny and breezy. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. 

Saturday: Partly cloudy and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 40s. 

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. 

Monday: Increasing clouds and cooler. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​ 

Disc: We continue to roll on thru the doldrums of a very boring Feb.  This weekend will be cold, but by the time another storm gets ready to impact the area early next week, we will have warmed up already and be sufficiently warm enough for rain.

Currently: A very chaotic wx picture across the NE quarter of the US.  One frontal zone is offshore with low pressure off ACK.  Another frontal zone is across the Appalachians, with lows along that front.  That frontal zone seems to be progressing slower than fcst and that will have to be watched for purposes of tonight's fcst.  A tertiary front, the one that will actually bring the cold air with it, is moving thru the Michiana region right now.

Tonight: As mentioned, it's a bit of a difficult fcst regarding what time the front goes thru, and alas, what time lingering showers end and skies clear.  For now, will still go with rain ending in the mid afternoon and clearing a few hrs later.  That will allow temps to plummet with cold air advection, and lows should range from the mid teens to the mid 20s, except maybe a few degrees warmer along the immediate SE Coast, where clearing might take longer.  I could be off by a few hrs and if I am, temps will end up a few degrees warmer than fcst.

Tomorrow: Clear and much colder with arriving cold air advection.  I'll run with the cooler GFS guidance, as it seems to have a better handle on arriving cold air.  Don't expect temps to rise much tomorrow, esp in areas that started warmer.  Expect highs within a few degrees of 30, and a breeze to make it feel even cooler.

Tomorrow night/Saturday: Possibly the coldest air mass of the season.  Places in the NW hills and NE CT away from the cities probably start below 0.  We do moderate fairly well during the day on Sat, however.  In fact, I think we outperform guidance by a couple degrees, due to a downsloping component to the wind.  Highs should wind up within a few degrees of the freezing mark, but it could be a degree or two warmer along the I 91 corridor.  

Long Term (Sunday and beyond):  All in all, the long term is biased cooler than we have been, but warm in the middle, when a storm passes thru.  I'll split the long term into two sections- before and after storm.  First, a warm front will move thru late Sat night into early Sunday morn.  This front has almost no lift with it, but a brief flurry cannot be ruled out.  Sunday is warmer, and guidance will generally be accepted.  High temps should generally be 40-45, again a tad warmer possibly along the I 91 corridor.  Monday should be a touch cooler, as a little lobe of high pressure crests over Srn Canada and funnels just a touch of cool air into the area.  Highs should be near 40, but mid 30s N of I 84.

The next system will approach the area Tuesday.  This system has been trending slower, and I will not buck the trend.  I'll keep Tuesday dry and focus the rain on Tuesday night after mid-evening and end it by dawn on Wed.  It is not a huge system- more of just a frontal passage.  Guidance looks good for Tue's temps- and we'll go with highs in the mid to upper 40s- close to guidance.

Colder air moves in on Wednesday behind the storm system, along with wind gusts to at least 40 MPH.  Once again, I have no quibbles with temp guidance, so will generally follow.  High temps should be around 40 degrees.  Colder air seeps in for Thu.  Here is where I will go a good 5 degrees below guidance, as model guidance has trouble resolving strong cold air advection this far out. That said, expect highs around 30 degrees.  Once again, at this time, the cold shot appears transient, with another storm system slated to affect the area with more rain a few days down the line.

Long Range: The long range pattern is starting to show hints of a generally cooler pattern, as the mean SE Ridge gradually gets beaten down with time.  There may be time to even salvage a month of winter for snow-starved snow lovers! Of course, the later we head into the season, the more the interior becomes favored.

Now, let's look at some systems slated to affect the area this week.  This section will be "lighter" than normal, since after today, there's really only one system slated to affect the area with any measurable pcpn.  So let's take a look at the Tue night front.  

You can see on this map that this looks basically like a typical springtime frontal passage, minus the chance of thunderstorms, since the air mass is cooler.  The low is already over the Canadian Maritimes.  Anyway, that's all for now, see you again next week!

​-GP!