Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.

We're marching toward spring. After a very active February, the overall pattern is changing. Instead of prolonged cold, for the foreseeable future we're looking at a reversal, with longer "warmer" periods and shorter periods of cold.

To be clear, this isn't shorts and sandals weather, but with nearly three minutes of additional daylight each day and a less conducive pattern for significant snow events, for now, winter is releasing its grip. 

Above: a temperature departure map for February. Can you believe it? Colder than average! As you can see, however, areas to our west were very cold. 

March Climatology
Before jumping into the forecast, which looks mostly quiet, why not talk about March. Overall, March is usually a month of transition in CT. Some years, like the last few, it can be wintry, bringing the majority of a season's snow. In other years, it is a seesaw, with warm and cold periods. 

Hartford (BDL)
Average March 1 High Temperature: 42
Average March 1 Low Temperature: 24
March 1 Sunset: 5:41pm

Average March 31 High Temperature: 54
Average March 31 Low Temperature: 33
March 31 Sunset: 7:15pm (note this is partly due to daylight saving time)

Average March Snowfall: 6.4"

Bridgeport (BDR)
Average March 1 High Temperature: 43
Average March 1 Low Temperature: 28
March 1 Sunset: 5:44pm

Average March 31 High Temperature: 52
Average March 31 Low Temperature: 36
March 31 Sunset: 7:17pm

Average March Snowfall: 5.1"

Let's go to the forecast. 

Monday-Tuesday
The start of the week is really the most active part of the forecast. Rain has moved into the state as we are stuck between a developing low offshore and advancing cold front. In this sector, we see rain as warmer air gets advected into the state.

This is a decently wet system, so expect a rainy overnight period and periods of showers during much of the day tomorrow. Have an umbrella tomorrow if you are out and about. As the front passes tomorrow afternoon we may see some snowflakes at the back end, but I'm am not expecting anything meaningful.

However you should be prepared for the temperatures to drop and winds to pick up. A Wind Advisory has been issued for all of CT tomorrow afternoon into Tuesday morning. Maximum winds look to be between 40-50mph, maybe a touch stronger at the shoreline, but I am not anticipating significant power outages as we still don't have leafed out trees or heavy precipitation like snow weighing things down. Watch out for black ice tomorrow evening and into Tuesday. 

Tuesday looks sunny, windy, and cold. I think the winds diminish Tuesday afternoon and as I mentioned earlier, this is one of those examples of a brief cold push followed by warmer days. 

Above: 3km NAM depiction of Monday and Tuesday. Rain tomorrow followed by a cold and windy overnight and Tuesday morning. 

Wednesday-Thursday
We warm up for the middle of the week. Wednesday and Thursday look great, with sunny conditions and temperatures in the 40s. For inland areas, Wednesday may bring temperatures in the 50s in spots. No complaints here for early March. 

Friday-Sunday
This period looks quiet too, albeit a little colder with highs in the 30s to low 40s. Things look partly cloudy with some storm systems staying well away from the region. We'll watch for temperature and storm track trends. For now, I'm keeping rain chances out. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Chance of snow showers late. Windy by afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 90%. Chance of snow 20%. 

Tuesday: Decreasing clouds and breezy. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of snow showers early 20%. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 40s. 

Friday: Mostly sunny and colder. Highs in the low to mid 30s. 

Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. 

Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​   

Disc: As the header implies, winter's wrath is finally easing up on the area.  This does not mean there will not be any more winter storms.  As we all know, in New England, winter threats can continue straight into the first half of April, but what it does mean is that we are not going to see a snow event every 2-3 days.

Currently: First cold front has moved well offshore.  Another cold front was nearing I 90 now and dropping Swd.  This front moves thru tonite largely dry, although a brief flurry could accompany it.  High pressure then builds in from Canada tomorrow.

Tonight: Since we have that cold frontal passage producing a solid band of clouds, radiational cooling conditions will be less than optimal tonight.  Therefore, I stayed pretty close to temp guidance- maybe just tweak down a deg here or there. Lows should mostly be 20-25, except 25-30 in the downtown cities and right alg the SE coast.

Tomorrow: A largely nice, sunny day across the region with less wind than today.  Guidance looks good and is generally accepted.  I did tweak up a deg here or there, given that snowpack is now dwindling and there will be ample sun.  Highs should mostly be in the low 40s.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: A storm system will approach the area.  This should be the first in a series of relatively weak waves to affect our area.  I have trended the pcpn type to all rain.  The Poconos and Catskills will see some snow, but not our hills.  The reasoning is that it is a race against time.  Cold air is rapidly departing, and CT being further east means a later pcpn start time.  So by the time it gets here, it's all rain.  Timing of this event looks to be right thru the core of the day- genly from mid morn to mid afternoon, with perhaps some pcpn lingering into the early eve in NE CT.  As is my usual convetion during rain events that don't show a huge warm surge, I went 3-5 deg lower than temp guidance.  So we're looking at highs genly 40-45- chilly, but not nearly cold enough for snow.  Just about all the rain that falls on Sat should be light in intensity.

Long Term (Sun and beyond): For Sun, the 2nd wave in the series will affect the state.  Rain from this wave should spread SW to NE during the early afternoon and wrap up by early in the evening.  Although this system appears faster, it could pack a bit more of a punch and rain could be moderate at times.  As for temps, I went a solid 5 deg below guidance, as NBM guidance does not look to be picking up on low lvl cold very well.  So highs should be genly around 40, xcpt maybe some low 40s in the cities and along the S coast.  

A third wave in the series affects the state late Sun night into early Mon morn.  Rain will again spread SW To NE in the predawn hours and be gone by mid-morning.  Guidance is very warm for Mon, but I think guidance tends to clear the skies too fast.  There is also strong cold air advection arriving by later in the day.  So we'll have a very limited window too warm.  Therefore, I subtracted 5-8 deg off guidance and went with highs in the low 40s.  Could we spike up for an hr or two? Sure, but that's deceptive anyway, and I want a fcst that reflects reality.  In addition, winds will pick up and gust to around 30 MPH during the afternoon Mon, adding to the chill.

The rest of the long term will be pretty quiet, albeit with highly varying temps, which is not too uncommon for this time of yr.

For Tue, a cold shot will affect the state.  W/fresh cold air advection, I went a few deg below guidance.  Look for highs mostly 30-35, except some mid 30s in the cities along the I 91 corridor, and along the immediate S coast.

Ridging builds overhead on Wed, and temps respond by warming 10 deg from those of Tue.  The same temp distribution will also be in place, xcpt the S coast will likely not be quite as warm, since the sound is still very cold.

Thu is probably a couple deg cooler than Wed, as a cool front slips thru Wed nite.  There is literally no moisture content with this front, so you'll likely only see some cumulus clouds and a wind shift.  Temp distribution across the state looks similar to the past couple days.

The long range looks fairly quiet, although I would not be surprised to see something bigger than what is in today's guidance at some point, due to the large thermal gradient across the CONUS.

I am going to show a few sequential maps today, to detail the evolution of the various weekend waves across the state.  It likely does not clear up in between waves and we could see areas of drizzle.  All in all, a very gloomy weekend is on the way.  

Anyway, that's all for now, see you next week!

-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather...

After a late January and February snow blitz which brought us above normal snowfall to date, things are finally starting to slow down...after our next minor snow event. Tomorrow will bring snow to northern and western CT before everyone changes to rain, and the balance of the work week is looking warmer and quiet. Let's dive in. 

The 3k NAM depiction of tomorrow's event. It looks like much of CT will see a period of moderate to possibly heavy snow for a brief period tomorrow afternoon before things change to rain. We're not expecting a high impact event. 

Monday
Tomorrow brings another storm and another chance for accumulating snow. A system will move through the region, bringing warmer air overrunning the colder surface. The result will be a period of snow that may be moderate to heavy for a brief period tomorrow afternoon between approximately 11am and 3pm that will quickly change to rain between 3-7pm as the precipitation departs. The hill towns in western and eastern CT may hold onto snow the longest, and there may not be much of any accumulation along the shoreline, especially in eastern areas, where it may be a very quick flip from snowflakes to raindrops. It'll be breezy as well, but not enough for any real power issues. 

The timing makes this tricky, as there could be snow falling during part of the afternoon commute, but we think temperatures near to above freezing rather than in the 20s will help mitigate road problems. That said, definitely be careful on the roads as we could see some slick spots.

Overall, we expect no accumulation for SE CT, with a light coating to 2" elsewhere mostly on grass, and 1-3 inches in the hill towns of western and eastern CT. In the whole scheme of things, a low impact event. 

Above is one of the short range models, the HRRR, which shows a brief period of snow tomorrow afternoon quickly turning to rain before departing tomorrow evening.  

Tuesday-Thursday
In the wake of this latest storm, we warm up! Our overall pattern continues to evolve, better flattening the upper level pattern to allow for quick moving and more spaced out precipitation events. With it, comes less dominant cold and brief intrusions of milder air. Winter's not over, but we're marching toward spring, folks. 

Tuesday morning could see some follow up snow or rain showers, but nothing too serious as we look at things right now. Highs inland should reach the low 40s. Wednesday and Thursday look good, with Wednesday's highs being in the 40s. If we overperform on temperatures we could see some spots edge closer to 50! We will see a front pass through Wednesday evening which will make Thursday a little cooler and windier, but with highs still in the 40s. 

Friday-Sunday
By Friday however, we're looking at seasonably cold conditions again as a second shot of cold air moves into the region. Next weekend brings another storm chance, but at this time the storm looks weak and warm as it passes well to our west. It's something we'll watch, but at this time I think it is looking more wet than white. 

Above: long range GFS depiction showing the potential weekend storm. The pattern suggests that we see more of a rain event than something wintry with Atlantic blocking fading. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy and cold to start with snow changing to rain. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 90%. 

Tuesday: Partly sunny and warmer. Slight chance of rain or snow showers early. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of precipitation 40%. 

Wednesday: Increasing clouds late. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation late 10%. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. 

Friday: Mostly sunny and colder. Breezy. Highs in the low to mid 30s. 

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 40s. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​   

Disc: For info on the very near term, i.e. today's amounts and specific points in the very near term, refer to our Facebook page.  This outlook will focus more on later tonight, tomorrow, and beyond.

Currently: Double barrel low pressure extends from SE AL to near Myrtle Beach.  High pressure, which is keeping the cold air in place at the sfc, stretches from Nrn New Eng, to Central Canada.

Tonight: Steady pcpn will diminish.  However, periods of snow and sleet, with minor accums, are possible all night.  In addition, in areas where pcpn does not fall, some light freezing drizzle could fall.  This will keep roads and sidewalks very slippery overnight, so exercise extra caution.  As for temps, I went close to guidance.  Temps should be steady or slowly rise thru the night, and by morning, be in the mid to upper 20s- still plenty cold enough!

Tomorrow: Models are in reasonable agreement, however, models have not done a very good job overall this winter,  so confidence is still a bit lower than it should be.  The general idea is for a coastal low to develop and spin more, mostly light, precip over the area.  The general evolution, at least the best I can come up with, is something like this:  steadier precip will redevelop in the morning.  It may not develop as snow right away, since the thermal profiles aloft do not support 100% snow.  However, it will transition to all snow as the upper levels cool.  Snow may then even come down moderate at times.  In fact, it may snow until midnight tomorrow night! At least minor additional accumulations are expected, with some potential for more than that! I went 3-5 deg below temp guidance tomorrow, as precip falls thru a cold column and cools the atmosphere.  Temps should still rise a few degrees, and make it to near 30 or so for highs.

For tomorrow night into Saturday, snow ends by midnight tomorrow night and skies clear.  Sat should be sunny and cold.  There is the potential for snow squalls/showers with the secondary front Sat aftn, w/the greatest chance, as usual, over the NW Hills.  W/fresh snow pack, and the potential for more clouds than modeled during the heat of the day, I went a couple deg below guidance.  Look for highs right around the freezing mark.  There will also be a breeze, adding to the chill.

Long Term (Sun and beyond): There are two focal points in the long term.  The first is Monday and the second is just outside our forecast period, but I may throw in a little teaser.

First, for Sunday, a sunny, cold winter's day.  I'll undercut guidance a couple deg again w/deep snowpack.  Look for highs once again around the freezing mark.

For Monday, a storm system is slated to affect the area.  This is a Miller B system- an Alberta Clipper that transfers to a coastal.  Lots of questions still remain, such as when the transfer occurs and when we can really get the sfc low going.  The GFS and ECMWF have trended colder at the sfc and have trended stronger w/sfc low development.  However, they tend to develop the low too late for all of CT, which is possible.  The GGEM does not have much coastal development, but has a colder sfc to begin with.  A snow shower is possible everywhere Mon morn.  Then a lot depends on the development of the coastal low.  An earlier, faster development would get the entire state in the game for snow, possibly significant, or at least moderate.  Otherwise, it will be a battle between the sfc and upper air, w/upper air temps supporting snow or sleet, and the sfc possibly too warm, esp in S CT.  That would yield a situation where heavier precip would bring down snow or sleet and lighter precip would be rain.  For now, based on the modeling and evolution of this sys, NE CT is favored for the higher chc of higher accums.  As for temps, a lot depends on the evolution of the sys as a whole, but chopping 5 deg off the NBM temps seems like a good start for now, since even the models w/no coastal have decent rates of precip falling.  This yields highs in the mid 30s.

The rest of the week is fairly quiet.  Tuesday should be fair, with moderating temperatures.  Since there is still snow on the ground regardless of what happens Monday, I subtracted a couple deg off guidance.  This gives us highs generally in the upper 30s, but a few low 40s in the I 91 corridor.

For Wed, I went close to guidance temps.  Despite snowcover, there is strong warm air advection ahead of the next cold front.  These should probably cancel each other out.  Mid to upper 40s may feel like spring!

A weak clipper system and associated cold front affect the state on Thursday.  I went way below temp guidance here, as there are showers falling and very cold air aloft.  So look for highs around 40.  As for precipitation type, I am calling for all snow with these showers, but no accum is expected due to warm sfc temps.

Now just beyond our fcst period, a poleward-moving low looks to come up the coast again.  It appears there is good sfc high pressure to the north.  Models are very divergent on track, ranging from the GGEM taking it up into the lakes and the GFS taking it out to sea, basically expected at this range, stay tuned!

No time for graphics today, refer to our Facebook page for snow maps!

See you next week!

-GP!

​

​Good afternoon from SCW!
 
I’m on the clock today so this is going to have to be a quick discussion, but one thing that will not be quick is our upcoming snowstorm. While snowfall rates won’t be all that impressive, the duration of this event stands out – we’ll see snow break out tomorrow morning and continue all the way through Friday afternoon, with some models keeping snow around into the overnight hours. Steady light to moderate snow is expected for most of the period, with the potential for some intermittent breaks on Friday, and all together will add up to a moderate impact event for the state. Let’s dive into the forecast.
 
Overall Evolution
 
Here’s a look at the evolution of the system on the GFS. This is one of the longer duration solutions, with snow breaking out by 7 AM tomorrow and lasting all the way into the evening hours of Friday.

​As a frontal boundary moves into the region, several waves of energy move over the boundary and bring precipitation to the region. While none of them appear especially large, there will be enough moisture along the gradient to maintain fairly consistent snow for the state. The best chances for some heavier snow rates come at the beginning and end of the system; the initial wave at the beginning appears a bit stronger than others, and some models suggest we could see some deepening of the low as the main system finally hits the ocean on Friday. That could result in some bands of heavier snow developing, and any areas that see those bands would be favored for the highest totals.
 
As the system has ticked south a little bit since yesterday, it has also cooled off a bit, and the guidance consensus now is for all snow across most of the state. There is some risk of mixing along the shoreline, especially in eastern areas, but at this time, I’m still leaning towards an all snow forecast.
 
Models are in pretty good agreement on total precipitation amounts, with generally around a half of an inch of liquid (or maybe a bit more in some spots) across the state. The outlier was the NAM, which was showing a stronger and more amplified system which would bring over an inch of liquid to most of the state, however, it’s started to back off in the more recent runs and move towards the guidance
 
While I’m not totally discounting the possibility of that solution returning it, I’m very skeptical of it, and so for this forecast, I stuck pretty close to the guidance consensus. There’s some risk that we will see lower amounts if the south trend continues, but there’s enough wiggle room with the precipitation shield that I think several inches for all is a near certainty.
 
Summing it all up, I’m expecting three to seven inches of snow for most of the state with most areas falling in the four to six inch range. Any areas that see heavier banding will be towards the higher end of the range. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 8-10” numbers in areas where heavier banding occurs (maybe interior southern areas and the southwest coastline?) but I don’t think that will be widespread enough to warrant a higher range.
 
Storm Details and Impacts
 
Here’s our forecast map and our thoughts on the impacts and the elements on our grading scale.

​Snow Accumulations
 
I’m going for a widespread 3-7” of snow, with a chance for up to 10” in areas where the best banding is in place. I think the greatest bust potential is in far northern areas of the state if the storm continues to shift south, and I thought about splitting the state into two zones with the heavier totals in southern areas, but for now, I’m going to stick with the widespread 3-7” for two reasons – ratios will be a bit higher in northern areas and it doesn’t take very much banding for an area to get closer to the higher end of the range, and it’s hard to know exactly where that will be.
 
Timing
 
Models have moved the start time earlier, and now project snow to break out as early as the start of the morning commute tomorrow. The end time is a bit trickier – some modeling tries to wrap things up by mid-morning Friday, though the bulk of the guidance continues snow into the afternoon and even into Friday evening on some models, driven by some coastal enhancement as the low tries to exit. I’ll split the difference and expect a snowy morning commute Friday but some improvement by the evening.
 
Here’s a look at the GFS and RGEM for 7 PM Friday evening – the RGEM has snow long gone from the state, while it’s still going on the GFS for most of the state (and will for several more hours). Notice that the system is much more consolidated and further west on the GFS.

Winds/Power Outages
 
Good news is that I don’t expect any notable winds with this storm and power outages should be isolated or non-existent.
 
Road Conditions
 
Generally light snow rates should allow road crews to keep on top of the primary roads but expect slow going on secondary and tertiary roads where plowing is less frequent. Any period of heavier snow could quickly accumulate and cause slower travel even on the main roads. That said, you likely won’t be going the speed limit for most of tomorrow and most of Friday, so take it easy and leave plenty of time for your travels.
 
School and Business Closings
 
This is a tricky call. The amounts aren’t huge, but the timing isn’t great. I would expect issues with busses both tomorrow afternoon and Friday morning, and so I’d expect fairly widespread closings of in-person facilities tomorrow, with Friday being a trickier call depending on when the storm ultimately moves out and if there’s a break in the snow for the crews to get the roads cleaned up overnight Thursday. If there wasn’t a remote option, I’d expect some districts to go for it to avoid losing two days to a borderline event, but given the availability of the remote option, I would suspect most if not all districts will choose that path for Thursday and Friday. That said, we at SCW are full supporters of the traditional snow day and urge all decision makers to give students the childhood memories of a school and screen free snow day with plenty of snowmen, snowballs, and hot chocolate (and some shoveling assistance too!). I’d expect most businesses will remain open with some potential delays Thursday/Friday depending on the commutes.
 
Overall Impact
 
While ~5-6” of snow can be a high impact event depending on the timing, it’s spread out enough here that I think most areas will be able to stay on top of it, and so I’m expecting a moderate impact event for the state. In order to see higher impact, we’d need to see a solution like the previous NAM runs verify, and as much as I’d love a foot of snow right now, I just don’t buy it.
 
We’ll update tomorrow morning with any final changes to the forecast and as needed throughout the event. Stay in touch with us on our social media pages to ask questions and share your observations – we rely on and appreciate them. Thanks for reading SCW and enjoy the snow!
 
-SA