Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

So we are 9 days into spring, the conditions over the last few days make it seem like we are 9 days into winter. Yesterday and last night, a general coating to 2 inches of snow fell across the state. Behind the snow, a reinforcing shot of cold air was brought down into the state. High temperatures today fell about 10-15 degrees below normal, had the March sun angle not been a factor, it could have been much colder.

Currently across the state we have mostly clear, but cool conditions, with temperatures ranging from the middle 30s inland, to the lower 40s at the shore. As we head through the evening, clouds will begin to filter in from the west preceding our next weather maker for tomorrow, temperatures will drop into the mid 20s statewide before rising through the 30s before sunrise tomorrow.

I had previously mentioned that there would be a disturbance that will effect the state tomorrow. I do not expect this this to be anything major, although it may start as a little snow statewide as there will still be some cold air in place, but I do expect this snow to change to rain by Monday afternoon as temperatures will rise through the mid 40s.  As far as accumulations go, I do not see much of either snow or rain, precipitation will be more of a nuisance than anything, with cloudy conditions. In fact, most days this work week look to have some kind of precipitation falling at some point. Clouds will clear out later Monday afternoon and evening with temperatures dropping into the low 30s at the shore and mid to upper 20s inland.

Tuesday looks to be the pick of the week as far as the weather goes. Sunny conditions should be the rule statewide with temperatures rising through the 40s, and even touching 50 at the shore. Tuesday night looks like more of the same as far as precipitation goes with temperatures in the low to mid 30s statewide. As mentioned previously, pretty much every day this week will feature some sort of precipitation. Well, later Tuesday night, clouds and precipitation move back in. At this point this looks to be another nuisance system bringing rain and snow showers, for very late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Right now this doesn't look like a big deal, but it could create some slick spots, especially inland on Wednesday morning. The low pressure system moves out and fair conditions move in for Wednesday afternoon, with temperatures rebounding back into the upper 40s and 50s. Even temperatures on Wednesday night do not look to be too unpleasant ranging from the low to mid 30s statewide under partly cloudy skies. 

Starting after the Wednesday morning disturbance, we will go into a short moderation pattern for the end of the week. Thursday looks to be one of the warmer days of the week with temperatures perhaps making it into the mid and upper 50s. The day does look to start off sunny, but don't look now, MORE clouds and precipitation look to move into the state for Thursday night. Right now, this looks to be a rain event with temperatures sitting in the 40s. Again, this will be a short lived system as rain showers will be over by the middle of the morning on Friday making way for sunshine, and relative warmth with temperatures approaching 60 on Friday afternoon. Fair conditions look to continue through the middle of Friday evening, with yet more clouds moving in, in advance of a system that I'm really keeping my eye on. 

While it looks as though this system will start as rain, and continue through Saturday, I am watching for maybe some snow to develop on Saturday afternoon as a cold front sweeps through and some possible regeneration of precipitation occurs.  Now, that system is 6 days out, and much can change, but it does look to be more significant than the quick hitter disturbances we will see during this work week. We will be keeping an eye on it.

While Saturday will start off relatively "mild", with temperatures in the the mid 40s. Temperatures do look to drop through the afternoon and evening into the 30s. This cool down looks to be one of the last of the season and will last through Monday (4/6) before temperatures begin to moderate back to seasonable levels for the week of 4/6. In fact, temperatures look to stay steadily in the 50s and 60s for highs after 4/6. It looks as though we are seeing the light at the end of the proverbial tunnel, and with no heat in sight, it looks as though we are heading into one of the nicest part of the year, true spring.

Now for your simplified extended work week forecast:

Monday: Rain and snow early, clearing in the afternoon, temperatures rising into the mid 40s statewide, with lows in the mid 20s inland and low 30s at the shore

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, temps 45-50 during the day, mostly clear early evening then increasing clouds after midnight, temperatures in the low to mid 30s statewide.

Wednesday: Early rain and snow showers, clearing during the mid morning with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 40s approaching 50 at the shore. Clear conditions at night with lows in the mid to upper 30s statewide.

Thursday: Sunny to start the day with clouds moving in later in the afternoon and showers developing by evening. Highs 50-55, lows 40-45.

Friday: Early rain then mid morning clearing and afternoon sun, highs approaching 60. Partly cloudy skies for the early evening then clouds and rain showers moving in by midnight, lows in the low to mid 40s.

Have a good rest of your night, and start to your work week! As always, thank you for following and continuing to support SCW!- Tim

A very good Friday evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

As we mentioned in our update on Wednesday, we’ve been watching an inverted trough feature for tomorrow that looks to develop in the area and bring some snow to the region. Over the last 24-36 hours or so, models have come into agreement on a slightly stronger trough combined with better dynamics aloft, and the end result is the potential for a slightly higher impact event in terms of total accumulations. Unfortunately, pinpointing where that will be is going to be difficult.

An inverted trough, especially one of this variety(a NORLUN trough), is generally characterized by a thin band of moderate to heavy snow, diminishing rapidly to light snow or even flurries on either side of it. The area which ends up under the meat of the band can pile up quite a bit of snow in a short time, while areas just a few miles away can get almost nothing. Combine that with the fact that they are notoriously difficult to model, and it’s a forecasters nightmare.

Here’s a look at the forecast liquid equivalent as snow maps from some of our forecast guidance.  2.5mm = 0.1” liquid == ~1” snow. They shouldn’t be used verbatim, especially in a situation like this one, but they’re a good visual as to what each model is “thinking”

The general theme on these maps is pretty clear, that is, the further east in the state you are, the better chance you have of seeing accumulating snow tomorrow. Quite a few of the models are showing advisory level snows into eastern CT, and some also bring 1”+ all the way back to the western two counties. However, I’m skeptical of believing those numbers. Considering the marginal airmass, strong sun angle, and warm ground temps, light rates are likely not going to be enough to accumulate during the daytime hours. Under the moderate to heavy bands though, different story, as once you have snow rates of a half an inch an hour or more(generally speaking, sometimes it’s a bit less, sometimes a bit more), the sun angle can be overcome and accumulations can still happen as normal. Therefore, the gradient between slushy coatings on grass and perhaps a couple inches of snow will be entirely dependent on where the bands form and if they are stationary or move about to impact a larger portion of the state.

Considering this, our forecast map eschews specific ranges in favor of more of a summary of the likely and possible situations. Here it is below.

As far as timing goes, light snow moves into the state tomorrow morning, expanding west as the morning goes on. Bands will begin to develop as the day goes on, and will result in isolated pockets of 1”+ per hour snowfall, while snow showers/light snow persists in the rest of the state. Snow continues into the overnight hours, where snow of all intensities should be able to accumulate, before moving out by sunrise Sunday. Any accumulations should melt quickly on Sunday given the forecast of 40s and sunshine.

If you’re going to be out and about tomorrow, pay attention to your surroundings, as only short distances will separate light snow from travel impacting moderate to heavy snow. Squalls will certainly cause travel impacts in spots, so stay alert and be prepared to slow down if needed!

We’ll be updating throughout the day tomorrow on our Facebook page(www.facebook.com/southernconnecticutweather) , so make sure to watch for updates and stay informed. Thanks for reading SCW!

-SA

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

We’re seeing something we haven’t seen in a long time across the state tonight, that is, rain! We’ve got some scattered showers moving west to east across the state, bringing a round of light rain to much of the region. They should exit to the east overnight, and by tomorrow morning, we should be awaking to mostly cloudy skies, and we’ll be getting ready for some of the warmest temperatures we’ve seen in quite some time!

Tomorrow looks to be the first solidly above normal day in months as a warm front pushes north and brings temperatures of five to  ten degrees above normal to the state tomorrow, corresponding to low to mid 50s for highs. Unfortunately, we won’t have sunshine to enjoy this with, as a round of rain pushes NE into the state tomorrow afternoon and lasts through the overnight into early Friday morning. This rain will be more widespread in coverage than what we saw this evening, and brings with it the possibility for some localized cells of heavier rain and perhaps even a thunderstorm or two as well. This, combined with snowmelt from warmer temperatures, will result in a risk for some flooding tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning, especially in areas with poor drainage.

Rain moves out by Friday morning and leaves a mostly cloudy day in it’s wake, with a shot at some partial sunshine in the late afternoon. Temperatures will still be warm, however, with highs again approaching or crossing the fifty degree mark across most of the state. Don’t be fooled into thinking that Spring is here, however, as a cold front swoops into the state Friday night and drops expected highs for Saturday down into the mid to upper 30s, with again mostly cloudy skies. The GFS model along with some of it’s ensemble members suggest that we could see a small snow event on Saturday from an inverted trough that forms over the state, and the Canadian has hinted at a potentially bigger event that would bring widespread accumulating snow, but as of now, the model consensus is for a miss and I don’t see any reason to go against that in the forecast. Keep an eye on the updates though!

The weekend is not all lost, however, as we will see almost full sunshine on Sunday along with highs in the mid 40s, which while still below normal will feel beautiful compared to what we’ve been seeing the last few months! A perfect day for an early spring hike or a fun filled day on the slopes with soft snow and full sunshine. Get out there and enjoy it!

Moving into next week, another possible system looks to approach for Monday into Tuesday, but details on that are very murky. In general, it looks like a weaker, drier system, but given the time of year and the reliability of models this winter, everything should still be on the table. In the long run, it appears that our below normal pattern will continue at least through the beginning of April, although with every day that passes our climo normals get higher and we march into Spring more and more. Doesn’t mean we can’t get a late season snowbomb though, so winter lovers, it’s not over just yet!

As we’re moving into the off-season and away from the action of winter, it’s a good time to remind folks of our off-season routine. SCW operates year-round and will continue to do in 2015, but we scale back our posting schedule to 2-3x per week for forecast discussions due to the relative stability of summer forecasting, and often they are presented in a more abbreviated fashion(After all, there’s only so many ways that you can say 70s and sunshine J ). Of course, during times of possible severe weather(Generally when an outlook for severe thunderstorms has been issued by the SPC), we will have a forecaster on duty to post rapid-fire updates if and when severe storms develop, just like we do in the winter with our updates throughout snow events. We also will have more detailed coverage of any abnormal events that look to impact the area, for example if another hurricane or strong storm was a possibility in the forecast. We should have our summer outlook out sometime in May as well.

We also operate on a more limited staff during the summer, so please keep in mind that it may take us a day or two to get back to your emails/comments/messages. We promise you that we’ll get to them as soon as we see them! We plan on ramping up to daily operations for our fourth season of winter coverage in mid November, and are already looking forward to another winter of tracking, writing, observing, and enjoying the weather with you, our loyal readers!

In the next week or two, we’ll have a closing update on the winter where we look back at the winter as a whole, examine the statistics, and grade our winter forecast compared to reality. Until then, we’ll have our next discussion for you on Friday(Unless we run into some thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon in which case we will have rapid-fire coverage). Thanks for reading!

-SA

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

After a day where we went from snow, to sun, 40 degree temperatures and melting, we are back into colder weather. It seems as though we just can't shake it. Highs across the state ranged from the mid to upper 30s, but a stiff wind made it feel colder. The only upside  was that it was by and large a mostly sunny day with dry conditions. Currently across the state we have clear skies and temperatures in the teens and low 20s inland, to mid 20s at the shore. Clear skies will persist through the early morning hours and temperatures will drop back into the upper single digits and low teens inland, with lows at the shore falling back into the lower 20s.

For Monday, and the beginning of the work week, cool, below average temperatures will stick around, with highs inland making it only to the mid 30s inland while temps at the shore barely touch 40. Conditions from tomorrow morning through afternoon look to be fair and dry, but also breezy with winds between 10 and 20 mph. Temps at night look to dip back into the low to mid teens inland, while upper teens will be observed at shore. So it appears as though winter doesn't want to give up even though the calender says it's technically spring.

Look toward Tuesday and the middle of the week. Temps look to rebound slightly starting with Tuesday afternoon where highs finally look to get back into the 40s statewide with partly cloudy skies. It looks as though temperatures may stay out of the teens for Tuesday night, which will be welcomed with open arms by those who are tired of the cold temperatures, lows look to range between the low to mid 20s.
With the moderating temperatures, comes the chance of rain unfortunately. Wednesday starts out dry with highs ranging between the low and mid 40s. Clouds and showers will move in later on Wednesday night. The only upside to this is that low temperatures will stay above freezing across the state, lows will be in the upper 30s. Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the week, but also the rainiest. Showers in the morning will become a steadier rain in the afternoon, high temperatures look to reach the low to mid 50s statewide. Rain continues through Thursday night, in fact we could still see some rain on Friday morning. Lows on Thursday look to be in the upper 30s, while highs on Friday will approach 50.

As has been the theme over the last few weeks, the moderating temperature trend does not last. After some morning rain showers on Friday, there will be some afternoon clearing. Along with the clearing there will a shift in the wind to northwest and cooler air will again be ushered in for later Friday night and the weekend. Temperatures for Friday night will be back into the 20s statewide with clear skies. We had been watching for a storm for next weekend, but since it looks it has disappeared from the models. This period still does hold my interest, so we will continue to monitor the situation. As for any lights at the end of this tunnel to any semblance of spring, I really do not see any. It looks as if the temperature roller coasters will continue through the middle of April. In fact,  I wouldn't rule out the chance for another snowstorm.

Now for the "cliffnotes" version of the extended forecast:

Monday: Sunny and breezy during the day, temperatures 35-40 for highs, Clear conditions at night with lows ranging from the low teens inland to the upper teens at the shore.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, highs upper 30s to low 40s statewide, Partly cloudy at night, lows 20-25
Wednesday: Fair conditions early, clouds moving in late, highs 40-45, showers moving in at night, lows 35-40
Thursday: Scattered showers becoming steady rain at night, highs 50-55, lows 35-40
Friday: Rain early, clearing late with rapidly falling temperatures, highs 45-50, lows 25-30.

Have a good rest of your evening and start to your work week!- Tim

Snow will taper off and come to an end tomorrow night, during rush hour in the southwest and around midnight in the northeast. There are still a few questions regarding the end of the precipitation and some specifics. First, some of the latest short-range models are suggesting that the coastal low may develop a bit faster than originally expected. If this happens, there could be an additional period of light to moderate snow Saturday morning, especially in eastern Connecticut. Next, even if this does not happen, there is the possibility of lingering moisture at the surface, which could produce a period of freezing drizzle. Both of these possibilities need to be monitored. Either way, tomorrow night winds up very cold, especially as skies clear later at night. Temperatures will plummet into the 20-25 degree range along the south coast, with teens for most of the rest of the state. Saturday’s temperatures will probably be a bit cooler than originally modeled, with fresh snowcover and a cold air mass in place. Highs will most likely range from the mid 40s along the south coast to the upper 30s up north. 

Saturday night, a reinforcing cold shot will approach and bring a brief round of showers to the state, centered around the midnight hour. These showers start as rain and possibly change to sleet and snow, with the best chances of snow up north. No accumulations are expected, except possibly in the hills, where a coating may occur here or there. 

I didn’t devote much time to later periods, but it does look like something of a moderating trend in temperatures will occur early next week, with a storm system, probably a rainy one, centered around midweek. Overall, however, the pattern looks cold and stormy going forward, and even though we are heading into spring, snow chances may not yet be done after tomorrow.
-GP