Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

It is a wet and foggy evening across Connecticut after a rainy Sunday, and as this latest storm departs we are expecting windy conditions overnight into tomorrow. Overall, much of the week looks quiet. Let's jump in. 

Monday-Tuesday
As I mentioned, the storm will depart tonight, but will bring in some colder and windy weather for Monday. There is a wind advisory for the state until 8pm tomorrow, and although we will see decreasing clouds and sunny conditions tomorrow, winds will be quite strong. I'm not expecting major issues, but we could see some maximum gusts between 45-55 mph. Be weather aware, especially in the morning. 

The winds will die down over the course of the day, and high pressure is in control on Tuesday as we warm up again with sunny skies. 

Wednesday-Thursday
Wednesday starts out fine, but we should see increasing clouds and a chance of rain by afternoon as a low develops along a cold front and rides north. This looks like a fairly quick mover, but there could be some lingering showers on Thursday. Right now, I'm not expecting a big rain maker. 

Friday-Sunday
​Once this storm departs, it looks like we are going to see another stretch of nice, albeit cooler, weather. Sunday is the only day that looks unsettled in this period right now, as there's a weak signal for another storm to develop in the region. Overall though, nothing worth changing any weekend plans at this time. 

The Dailies
Monday: Decreasing clouds and windy. Highs in the low to mid 50s. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

Wednesday: Increasing clouds with a chance of rain by afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, then decreasing clouds late. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain early 30%.  

Friday: Mostly sunny and breezy. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 50s. 

Sunday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

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​
-DB​ ​

Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

Spring officially arrived Saturday morning, and it looks like the coming week will bring us some spring-like conditions! Although the week looks mostly quiet, there will be some rain chances at the end of the work week. Let's dive in. 

Above: March to date precipitation. Our nice weather has come at a cost. We're at a fairly significant deficit so far in the month. 

Monday-Wednesday
This period looks like the nicest part of the forecast. High pressure will be in control, and that will allow for seasonably warm conditions and sunny skies. Highs inland could be in the low to mid 60s, with temperatures slightly cooler at the shore as the shoreline is under the influence of the colder Sound this time of year. We're not at the point where 70s are common, but this time of year, 60s will do just fine. 

The only hiccup could be Wednesday evening, as our area of low pressure approaches. There may be some increasing clouds on Wednesday and possible showers late, but that shouldn't get in the way of a nice three day period. 

Thursday-Friday
This looks like the unsettled period in the forecast. There is general consensus on the guidance that a strong area of low pressure will develop in the south during the middle of the week and head northward. From there, however, there's a split on the guidance. The GFS wants to keep the low so far west it doesn't bring much, if any, precipitation to Connecticut. The Euro keeps the low west too, but does allow for some showers on Thursday and a steadier rain for part of Friday. For now, I lean toward a middle ground, with showers slightly possible on Thursday, with an increased chance for showers, but not heavier rain, on Friday. This is something we'll continue to watch during the week in case the forecast turns more rainy. 

Below is a GFS depiction of Thursday and Friday. Again, I do think there's some moisture that gets thrown our way, just not a lot. 

Saturday-Sunday
The weekend is looking mostly quiet. In the wake of the low pressure late in the work week, we should see a cold front push through the region and pull temperatures back a little. That said, we're just talking about a few degrees rather than a wholesale change. Sunday should bring some increasing clouds, as another low tries to develop, but any rain looks to hold off until late in the evening or early Monday morning. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the low to mid 60s inland and mid to upper 50s at the shore. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the low to mid 60s inland and mid to upper 50s at the shore. 

Wednesday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the low to mid 60s inland and mid to upper 50s at the shore. Chance of rain late 20%. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 20%.  

Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Breezy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. 

Sunday: Increasing clouds with a chance of rain showers late. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 30%. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​ ​

Disc It has been 17 days since our last widespread measurable precip.  Some areas did measure on Tuesday, but it was scattered 0.01 and 0.02 and not a widespread measurable pcpn event.  It's interesting because just about every time we go on a dry streak, they never go more than right around 17 days.  It makes sense living in the mid-latitudes, where rainfall is evenly distributed thruout the year.  Today's rain snaps the streak and may actually snap the whole pattern to a wetter one, which we should really feel the effects of about a week from now.

Currently: Low pressure over Srn IL is the culprit for the rain over the area right now.

Rest of today/tonight: Rain should fall heavy at times and gradually wind down overnight.  There is a chance that the rain ends as some snow showers tomorrow morn, but that chance has really dwindled in the latest model runs.  Therefore, I will not be mentioning any accumulations in this package, and a map will not be issued.  As for tomorrow morn's lows, I stuck pretty clsoe to guidance.  Lows should range from 25-30 degrees across the state.  Winds will really begin to ramp up after midnight, with the strongest winds from late tonight into tomorrow morning.  Wind advisories will probably be issued by NWS w/their afternoon packages.  However, advisories or not, winds will still gust to 40-50 MPH, so keep that in mind.  The winds will do one good thing, however.  They should aid in rapid drying of the ground, which should prevent most flash freeze concerns.  Even so, do exercise a little extra caution tomorrow AM if you notice the temp is below freezing and there is any standing water left over.

Tomorrow: Any snow showers should be gone by dawn.  Winds diminish during the afternoon.  Sunny and chilly.  Went close to temp guidance, which is generally low 40s for highs.  Normally, with strong cold air advection, I'd go under guidance, but we're at day 1.5 here and temp guidance should be able to handle that.  In addition, the sun angle is  very strong this time of yr, and that should aid in warming.

Tomorrow night/Sat: Beautiful day in store on Sat.  High pressure passes overhead, so temps should warm up rapidly.  Again, went fairly close to guidance on temps.  Highs should top out 50-55.  I do want to point out that it could be a good idea to go a bit warmer than guidance over the I 91 corridor, where highs could get to the 54-57 deg range.

Long Term: Sun-next Thurs: This period is mainly uneventful.  High pressure will pass offshore.  However, it will not be as warm as it could be with a high offshore, because the high will park itself near Nova Scotia.  This insures more of an E-NE flow, which transports relatively cool, oceanic air to the region.  However, most days will be sunny, and that's a mitigating effect, so it will still be rather nice.

I went a couple degrees higher than guidance on temps for most locations on Sun, with the exceptions being the NW-NE hills (chilly start) and the S coast (sea breezes).  Most of the state makes a run at 60, but those aforementioned places stay in the mid 50s.

The GGEM guidance shows an offshore coastal low Mon night into Tues much further W than other guidance.  Should this verify, light rain/drizzle would be likely along the S coast.  However, since no other guidance really shows this right now, I'll leave it out of the fcst.

Went real close to guidance on Mon, as onshore flow becomes "deeper", so temps should be pretty uniform across the state- mid to upper 50s for highs.

For Tue, again followed close to guidance, with most places in the upper 50s.  However, I did go a bit cooler on the S coast, w/the potential for at least more clouds from the offshore low, so mid 50s there.

For Wed, I went a couple deg below guidance.  There will be an increase in clouds ahead of the next system.  Combine that w/continued onshore flow and I think guidance looks a bit too warm. Highs in the mid 50s for all.

For Thu, the next system will approach the area.  A low going W of us will try to bring a warm front thru.  Historical knowledge tells me that when you have deep onshore flow and it's still March, warm fronts don't blast right thru the area.  Therefore, I went 5 to 8 deg below guidance, and I have chc of light rain/drizzle for most of the day.  I have highs around 50, maybe a deg or two warmer inland.

No graphics needed today.  There is no snow map to speak of, plus the only real solid precip occurring is in the near term.  

As far as long range, temps look to be generally above normal.  There could be a couple soaking rain events to close out March.  As dry as it's been, we could actually finish the month close to norm, if those events verify.

See you next week!

-GP!

Good evening from SCW. 

After a wonderful taste of spring just a few days ago, many saw snow showers and snow squalls today! We may have sprung ahead on the clocks, but winter is trying to hang on. The week ahead looks mostly quiet, but stormy weather won't be too far away. Let's take a look at the week ahead. 

Above: all of CT is under a Wind Advisory as we continue to see strong winds in the wake of our cold front. Winds should begin to diminish slightly overnight, but we will see cold conditions tonight. 

Monday-Tuesday
The start of the week is cold. Tomorrow morning will bring us wind chills near zero, as windy conditions combined with cold temperatures will have it feeling like winter despite the sunny skies. We are a bit warmer on Tuesday, but we will see increasing clouds and a chance for some snow showers late Tuesday into early Wednesday. At this time, I am not expecting anything particularly meaningful with potential snow late Tuesday/early Wednesday, but in some of the hilly locations there could be a minor coating which could make roads slick. We'll update if the system looks any more meaningful. 

Above: GFS depiction of Tuesday-Wednesday. Nothing particularly exciting, but snowflakes will be possible with cold air in place. 

Wednesday-Friday
The middle to latter part of the work week returns us to quieter conditions, but a storm system looks to slide south of our region. At this time, it looks like we remain cloudy but dry, but the guidance has the storm just to our south. Should there be a trend north, some rain or snow could be possible on Thursday or Friday. Again, nothing significant, but it is worth watching on our end. 

Saturday-Sunday
In the wake of the storm, regardless of if it is north enough to bring us precipitation, the weekend currently looks quiet. Temperatures look to rebound in the wake of the storm as high pressure tries to take over. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and cold. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. 

Tuesday: Increasing clouds with a chance of snow late. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of snow 30%. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow early. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of snow early 20%. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 20%

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. 
 
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 50s. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​ ​

Good afternoon from SCW. 

I have to be honest. Some of my favorite forecasts are short and simple like this one. After a sunny but cold couple of days, we will see a very nice week ahead with rising temperatures and continued nice conditions. Will that warmth last? Let's see below... 

GOES-E imagery from today showing sunny skies across New England. That white you see? The remainder of the snow cover that once blanketed Maine to Maryland! 

Monday-Tuesday
Tomorrow currently looks like the coldest part of the forecast period. Sunny conditions will remain, but it will be a chilly day. Highs should be in the upper 30s to low 40s. The warm up looks to begin on Tuesday, as a warm front passes early in the morning and temperatures top out in the 50s. It will be nice, but not as nice as Wednesday and Thursday!

Wednesday-Friday
The warmest temperatures of the season so far are likely during this period as a ridge to our south becomes dominant for a time. Simply put, it is going to feel great. The shoreline will be a few degrees cooler as it'll be under the influence of the colder Long Island Sound. It'll be nice there nonetheless.

There may be some high clouds around on Wednesday and Thursday, but overall it looks sunny, nice, and warm. Highs will be in the 60s inland and upper 50s to low 60s at the shore. This seems like a decent setup for inland temperatures to overperform on Thursday especially, so we'll watch for that.

By Friday, we will be watching a front approach. That means that showers are possible but for now I think things will be mostly dry. Friday could be the warmest day of the week if the cold front stays to our west. I'm excited. 

Above: GFS depiction of Thursday's temperatures. This is likely underdone by a few degrees. 

Saturday-Sunday
Sadly, however, it looks like the warmth won't last terribly long. By the weekend the cold front should be approaching or past our region. That means temperatures drop back to near normal, and likely below normal further out past this forecast period. Conditions look fine during this period too but as GP mentioned, the longer range is looking more active. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs is the upper 30s to low 40s. 

Tuesday: Partly cloudy early, highs in the low to mid 50s.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 60s inland and mid to upper 50s at the shoreline. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 60s inland and upper 50s to low 60s at the shoreline. 

Friday: Increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s inland and upper 50s to low 60s at the shoreline. Chance of showers 30%. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny and colder. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. 

Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 40s. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​