Disc: Our little shot of winter is pulling away and the bulk of the fcst period will feature wx more typical of this time of yr.

Currently: Cold high pressure still anchored over the area.  Strong warm front extends from the Quad Cities area to about Myrtle Beach.  That will move rapidly north and cross the area by morning.

Tonight: I went a few deg above guidance on temps, as it appears to be too diurnal.  Feeling is that temps will be steady or slowly rise thru the night, prob above 40 everywhere by dawn, except far N and a few sheltered valleys.  Warm front moves thru around dawn SW-NE.  There could be a quick sprinkle or rain shower right along the warm front, otherwise the night is generally cloudy, but dry.

Tomorrow: The big question is how warm it gets.  The two things I definitely know are: The air mass is very warm, and we'll have strong southerly flow.  That tells me two things: We'll have potential to get very warm, but it should be much cooler along the S coast.  What I don't know is how much clear skies we'll have, which would aid in warming.  I do know that most showers w/the cold front hold off until after max heating, so that isn't much of a concern.  Weighing all these things together, I went quite a bit under guidance in the event of being conservative, esp given such strong Southerly flow, and have highs generally in the upper 50s.  Winds just aloft are quite impressive.  I would not be surprised to see 55-60 MPH gusts, esp along the S coast.

I am adding a special section for tomorrow night, because that's where most of the action w/our cold front will be.  SPC does not have the state highlighted, but when I see 850-925 winds the way they are progged on today's modeling, I do think any heavier showers or t-storms can mix down svr winds to the sfc.  You do not necessarily have to have lightning to get svr showers.  Any showers end by dawn as a fairly strong cold front moves thru.

Long Term: The main concerns in the long term are showers on Sun and a bigger storm at the end of the pd.

For Friday, expect pleasant temps w/clearing skies.  I went fairly close to guidance- mid to upper 50s most places, approaching 60 along the I 91 corridor.  The only fly in the ointment will be the winds.  Gusts to 45 MPH will still be possible, esp in the morning.

For Sat, expect an even nicer day.  It will still be breezy, but winds will diminish significantly.  Again close to guidance on temps- 50-55... could be a bit warmer or cooler in spots, but no need to play around too much w/a generally nice day expected.

An upper level low will spin over the area on Sun.  This should flare up showers after morning sun.  W/very cold air aloft, any heavier showers will produce small hail and/or sleet (maybe even snow N of the Merritt).  Temps would also plummet w/any heavier showers.  I went way below guidance on temps w/this feature present, and have highs in the upper 40s.

That upper level low will clear out of here by Mon and the week will start off nice.  Went very close to guidance temps and smoothed them out across the state, since we're in the long term, generally mid 50s.

For Tuesday, another nice day is expected.  Clouds will increase ahead of the next sys, but no pcpn is expected until well after dark.  Again went pretty close to guidance temps, generally mid to upper 50s, but I could see the I 91 corridor approach 60, esp if we get any sun.

For Wednesday, we very well may be dealing with part I of a two-part sys that affects the state Wed and Thu w/heavy rains.  Models have progged a lot of heavy QPF events at this range and many of them have not verified, so I'd use a bit of caution w/this, but the setup, as advertised, would produce.

For today's graphics, I'll post one of tomorrow night's rains and then one of Sun's showers.  The Wed event we'll leave alone for now, as it is too far away.  On the first map, you can see widespread showers over the state, w/more coming.  The tight isobars indicate strong winds.  The second image shows showers across the state, w/what appears to be a perfect orientation for CT to get the rain.  However, being a small system and still a bit of a ways out, I limited it to high chance POPs for now, since this can (and probably will) move.

That's all for now, see you next week!

-GP!

Disc: Whether you have a warm, snowless winter, or a cold, snowy winter, it's never that easy.  When the first warm wx of the season comes, it invariably gets replaced with a cold spell.  Winter always has a fight back in it, and the next two weeks will be that fight.   Whether anyone sees appreciable snow is to be determined.  Climo would favor the NW hills, of course, but it is not totally impossible for most of the region to see something.

Currently: High pressure over VT keeping us high and dry.  Low pressure near the Quad Cities and various fronts extending from it will become the focal point of our wx the next couple days.

Tonight: Rain develops from SW to NE, beginning after dinner time in W CT, closer to midnite E CT.  Rain falls steadily thru the nite, possibly heavy at times.  Went a bit above guidance on temps, as temps really shouldn't fall all that much.  Temps generally hovering near 40 thru most of the state.

Tomorrow: Steadiest and heaviest rain prob ends around dawn W CT to mid morning E CT.  After that, clouds and scattered to numerous showers thruout the day.  Gusty breezes up to 30 MPH  as well.  Temp guidance looks way too warm, given clouds, rain, and onshore flow.  Temps prob only rise a few deg.  I kept most of the state in the 40-45 deg range.  

Tomorrow night/Fri: Rain finally ends around midnight W CT, predawn hrs E CT.  Fri clears out and turns out to be a pretty nice day.  Temps could be a bit tricky, depending on when skies clr.  For now, I went quite a bit below guidance.  Thinking clouds could hang on for quite a while, even if the rain ends.  So for highs, I have most places 50-55, but I have SE CT the coldest and the inland areas near I 91 the warmest of the spreads.

Long Term: Winter makes its last stand during this pd.

Sat: An upper level low spinning aloft will prob  generate at least scattered showers, esp after a few hrs of sun.  Convective temps are low.  In Addition, there's a pretty good pool of cold air just above the sfc.  So any heavier showers could very well mix or change over to sleet (or maybe even snow N of the Merritt).  I went pretty close to guidance, as we could briefly warm dramatically under sun, but most of the day won't be in the low 50s where the brief maxes will be.

Sun: Cold air really starts to move in.  The ULL is also still spinning aloft.  This combo leads me to go quite a bit below temp guidance.  There could also be a quick snow shower as clouds increase.  The sfc is much colder and upper levels are a bit colder, so I have only snow for any p-type.  Highs only 40-45! Winds could gust up to 40 MPH and make it feel a lot colder!

Mon: The core of the cold moves overhead.  The ULL pulls away, but the old sfc low is still spinning over the Canadian Maritimes.  This will result in a cold, windy day.  Went close to guidance, but a bit below.  Highs only mid 30s thruout the state! Winds still gusting up to 40 MPH will make it feel a lot colder!

Tue: Winds finally begin to diminish, as pesky low pulls out of the Maritimes.  Temps warm a bit, but still cold.  Went well below guidance, as it likes to warm us up too quickly to climo at that range.  Most highs near 40, but still staying in the 30s in the NW and NE corners of the state.

Wed: Finally warms up a bit.  Still below normal, but much more tolerable.  Went fairly close to guidance w/temps.  Uniform mid to upper 40s for everyone.  Don't want to get too cute w/specifics on day 7.  Clouds could also increase late in the day, but again being day 7, no need to get too cute.

As we head into April, the month will kick off w/stormy and cool wx.  It is not impossible that some areas, esp N areas above 1000' or so have not yet seen their last accumulating snow, but more on that much later!

Now, let's look at a couple graphics, showing our storm tomorrow and then the extent of the cold Mon.  First, this is prob when our steadiest, heaviest rain falls, around dawn tomorrow.  You can see steady rain covers the state, but the heaviest rain prob remains S of LI.  Next, this map shows temp anomalies Mon.  Look at the cold anomalies over the NE 1/4 of the CONUS!

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Anyway, that's all for now, I'll see you next week!

​-GP!

Disc: It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood today, w/plenty of sun.  The only little fly in the ointment is a sea breeze for the S coast.

Currently: High press nearly right overhead keeping the region dry.  The high will slide east tonight, allowing low press currently over Alabama to head northeast.

Tonight: Clouds increase.  Nearly neutral advection, so followed guidance closely.  Lows generally near 40, but added some 30s in the Northern corners.  They may just stay clear long enough to do it.

Tomorrow: Not the nicest Saint Pat's day ever.  It will rain most of the day, if not all of the day.  Rain will not be too heavy,  but heavy enough to get wet.  Categorical pops on S coast, likely elsewhere, just in case this doesn't get far enough North, but pretty sure it does.

Tomorrow Night/Fri: We clear out and Fri is a really beautiful day! I went under guidance to be conservative, just in case a sea breeze or clouds linger.  But even then, I have low 60s.  It could very well be warmer (and probably will be)!

Long Term: Rain events bookend the long term, w/nice wx in between.

For Sat, unsettled wx prevails.  This sys has come into better focus.  It now looks like a period of rain before dawn, then a break, then sct showers and tstorms in the aftn.  Those will be the focal points for showers.  Although I do have a chance at any hr.  As for temps, I went close to, or just under guidance.  I have mid 50s, for the most part.  It should be noted, however, that if there is any sun, we will be warmer.

For Sun, nice behind the storm.  If you can tolerate a few 35-40 MPH wind gusts, it'll be a nice day.   Went very close to guidance, w/no glaring reason not to.  Highs generally mid to upper 50s.

For Mon, nice day, but there are signs of onshore flow development in the wind barbs.  For this reason, I went a bit below guidance, esp near the S coast.  I have highs generally in the low 50s, except near 50 on the S coast, to mid 50s along the I 91 corridor.

For Tue, stronger flow ahead of the next sys, so onshore flow less of a worry.  Could get some gusts to 35 MPH at times.  Otherwise, highs generally low 50s for everyone- close to, or just a bit under, guidance.  Clouds increase ahead of the next sys.

For Wed, the next sys approaches and this one could be a doozy! Model QPF avg is already 1-2" of rain.  Looks like rain all day, w/a strong breeze.  I am not too concerned about frozen pcpn, but it may not be completely out of the question for far Nrn zones to see some mixing to start and end.  That may  need to be looked at later, depending which way this trends.  I went quite a bit below guidance w/clouds and rain.  I have highs generally in the mid to upper 40s.

Longer range looks like there could be a fairly strong cold shot before the end of the month.  Not too atypical for that to happen this time of yr!

Now, let's look at two graphics.  I have one for tomorrow and one for Sat.  Wed is too far away to post graphics yet.  On tomorrow's map, you can see the state covered with rain and more to come.  We'll rain, but it just won't be tons of rain, as the moisture source isn't that robust.  The last image is the GFS for Saturday midday.  I have this frame attached because it displays the two rounds of rain really well.  You can see the first band leaving and the second batch approaching.

Anyway, that's all for now! See you next time!

-GP!

Disc: What you're seeing today is not too atypical for this tine of yr.  It can snow, but a lot of times when it does snow into a marginal air mass during the day like today, you get accums in the heavier bands and in normally colder spots, and rainy/slushy mix elsewhere.

Currently: Low press just off VA Beach producing the wet snow across the area today.  This low pulls out tonight; then the next couple days will be very nice.

Tonight: Snow pulls out a bit after dark.   W/o deep, widespread snow cover and no advection, guidance temps are accepted.  I have lows in the upper 20s across the state, except I went a shade warmer along the immediate S coast.  Watch for some slick spots on area roadways N of the Merritt Pkwy.

Tomorrow: Sunny and a nice day.  Went a few deg below guidance and smoothed out temps.  I don't think we downslope or get as efficient sea breezes as models indicate because I think winds are light.  Also, not sure about AM clouds limiting temps for much of the state, so I went w/a generic mid 40s.

Friday: Guidance looks good, but again smoothed it out a bit, given light LL wind flow.  A couple deg warmer for most, in the upper 40s.  Clouds may increase late in the day.

Long Term: Main problem in the long term is a "multiple hazard" storm Sat.

Saturday: Multiple hazard day.  A wall of heavy rain arrives in the AM, as temps rise into the upper 40s ( a few deg below guidance), then temps plunge late in the day.  The whole state probably turns over to snow.  However, there may not be all that much pcpn left, so accums should be less than an inch.  There could be some slightly higher amts well N, but too early to pin that down.  Did not include t-storms in the fcst, as we are pretty stable E of the Hudson, but a rumble of thunder would not surprise me in extreme W CT.  The two biggest hazards appear to be flash freeze, as temps fall more than 30 deg late in the day, and strong winds.  Near and behind the Arctic front, winds could gust up to 55 MPH and we roar thru the night.  

Sunday: Quick Arctic blast.  Generally went pretty close to guidance, since we're not really advecting all that much cold air by afternoon.  Highs only mid to upper 30s.  Winds diminish a bit, but still could gust 40-50 MPH thru the day!

Monday: Fast recovery.   W/onshore flow developing, modified temp guidance a bit.  Kept in line w/general numbers, but feel guidance is too cool near I 91 and too warm along the S coast.  So I have most places topping out near 50, but some 50-55 showing up near I 91.

Tuesday: Guidance is now hinting at deep layer SE flow setting up.  Therefore, I smoothed out the guidance first, then subtracted about 5-10 deg from it.  If we really do have SE flow, and the wind barbs support it, highs get to the upper 40s and not much more.  

Wednesday: Same deal as Tue.  Still looks like a deep-layer SE flow, so subtracted a lot from temp guidance.  Highs again upper 40s, but no precip expected.

Just one quick graphic today, and it is the Sat storm.  You can see strong low press tracking across the region and an Arctic air mass moving in.  This map depicts it well.  Take note of how tight the isobars are, strong wind setup!

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Anyway, that's all for now! See you next week!

​-GP!

Disc: There is nothing truly atypical on the maps  as we look forward.  The pattern looks very typical for early March.  Beyond a week out, there could be more persistent below normal temps.

Currently: Alberta clipper system over the High Plains dives ESE tonight.  This will bring a brief period of precip and a period of much cooler temps to the state.

Tonight: There should be a period of pcpn centered around midnight.  Ptyps could be everything but the kitchen sink.  Fortunately, pcpn is light and temps are AOA freezing, so any snow or sleet accums would be nil to minimal.  I went close to guidance for temps, w/a few local adjustments here or there, mainly to spread out the range a bit.  Lows generally near 30, maybe mid 30s along the immediate S coast.  Winds could gust 30-35 MPH w/the clipper tonight.

Tomorrow: Cooler and fair wx.  Morning breezes diminish as the day progresses.  For temps, I generally followed guidance for most of the state, but I lowered it a bit in the NW hills.  So we have highs near 40, except mid to upper 30s in the NW hills.

Tomorrow Night/Fri: A chilly period.  Even though I went a bit above guidance due to favorable wind direction for downsloping, it's still chilly and nobody in the state reaches 40.

Long Term: Generally a rainier and warmer period.

Saturday: Cold air prob hangs tough thru the entire day at the sfc.  Clouds increase, but for now cautiously leaving pcpn out of the day period.  I generally went a bit below guidance and even moreso N of I 84, where sfc cold may really hold, due to being closer to the sfc high.  High temps should generally be near 40, but I lowered them to the mid to upper 30s N of I 84.

Sunday: Much warmer.  Hard to tell how much pcpn we actually get.  Trying to stay ahead of the trends here, as guidance has shifted drier.  I do have some chance POPs for the AM, as a batch of showers could scoot by.  But the rest of the day should be dry.  Temps are very tricky, depending on wind direction, pcpn, and cloud cover.  W/all those complicating factors, I went below guidance, then smoothed out the ranges to call it a generic mid to upper 50s.  It could definitely be warmer, but we'll wait and see on that.

Monday: Warm, but we're going to call it mostly cloudy.  I have likely-cat POPs by  the end of the day, as a potent sys should bring rain, some of it heavy, to the area, beginning right after dark.  I went pretty close to the guidance on temps, lower S coast, warmer in the I 91.  Generally mid 50s for most, but near 50 along the S coast and some upper 50s in the I 91.

Tuesday: Cooler, but not real cold, and quite nice, after any AM clouds clear out.   There is a bit of cold air advection, so I did go under guidance, but I went fairly close along I 91, so I have highs in the mid 40s, except some upper 40s along I 91.

Wednesday: Sunny and nice.  W/it being so far out and nothing to really sway me much, basically just copied guidance for highs for now.  Upper 40s thruout the state should suffice.

Longer Range: There is a possibility that the ridging near AK strengthens even more, which would send anomalously cold air into the CONUS.  Whether or not we get more snow is TBD, but you need the cold first this time of yr, and it looks like we will have that.  So we'll see where it goes from here!

Only one graphic today, and that is of the Monday night rain.  Low press nearly right over the area, good forcing and high moisture content are a good recipe for quick-hitting heavy rain, if everything holds.

That's all for now! Take care and enjoy your week!

-GP!