Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

The big story the last few days has been the wind in the wake of our significant rainstorm, and while the breezy conditions will linger, the story of the week ahead will be the warmth. This should be a fairly quick forecast, so let's dive in! 

Above: the 18z EPS showing temperature anomalies for the week. We will be mostly above to well above normal in temperatures, with Wednesday and Thursday bringing a little more complexity. 

Monday-Tuesday
The next two days should be quite nice, finally giving us a good taste of spring as temperatures reach the upper 50s to low 60s. We will have plenty of sun, and while it may be a little breezy Monday, as high pressure builds in the winds won't be an issue. Tuesday should be in the same ballpark in terms of temperatures, and it will feel great with temperatures near 60 and abundant sunshine. Keep in mind however that with clear skies, we will see some cold nights for this time of year with lows in the 30s as radiational cooling will be possible each night. 

Wednesday-Thursday
This part of the forecast is a little more complicated, as a cold front arrives late Tuesday. I'm not expecting any precipitation with the front late Tuesday/early Wednesday. In the wake of the front however, we will see our daytime temperatures fall, with highs reaching the mid to upper 40s on Wednesday. There will be increasing clouds as we head into Thursday, and the guidance has been consistent in showing a weak system passing through the region.

The models keep most of the precipitation to our north, so I am not expecting much, but there could be some rain/snow showers very early Thursday, followed by a cloudy day. 

Above: the 18z Euro operational showing the weak system crossing the region early Thursday. While there may be some rain and/or snow showers around early Thursday, the system is moisture starved and fast moving, so I don't expect any travel issues in CT. 

Friday-Sunday
Temperatures aren't that bad Wednesday and Thursday in the whole scheme of things, but they are not quite what people think of when you think of spring. After the weak system departs Thursday, we warm right back up as a ridge builds back in. Friday looks nice with highs back into the upper 50s to low 60s, though there's a question of how much cloud cover we will have. 

The same is true for Saturday, which is a big day due to the St. Patrick's Day Parade. Right now, the weather looks good, with cloud cover to be determined. In fact, it's possible that we see highs in the low to mid 60s!

Sunday gets tricky, because there's a relatively high chance that a big storm out west traverses the region. As the storm cuts well to our west, we will be on the warm side and Sunday looks wet as a result. Details will become clearer as the week progresses, but Sunday looks closer to a washout than nuisance showery day. Temperatures remain elevated with highs in the 50s.  

Above: the 00z GFS, depicting a dry day Saturday turning into a very wet Sunday as a storm cuts well to our west. In the wake of this storm, colder air filters back into the region. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and cooler with increasing clouds late. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 30%. 

Friday: Partly cloudy and warmer. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 60s. 

Sunday: Increasing clouds early with rain, heavy at times, by afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 70%. 

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Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

Winter gave us its best shot in February, but still failed to deliver enough snowfall to bring us within striking distance of a normal snowfall winter. Although it felt cold in February with several Arctic blasts, temperatures actually finished within a degree of normal--another reminder that we've had some real blowtorch winters recently that have altered our perspective of what a normal winter actually is. 

Every year is different. Sometimes winter doesn't arrive, while other winters loosen their grip early or late. No matter what however, at some point we begin a march toward (sustained) spring in our sensible weather. Although sustained spring is not quite on the horizon, we've reached the point where we can now say that the worst of winter is over, and we are marching toward spring. 

Above: the 12z European ensemble showing temperature anomalies at the surface over the forecast period. Although we're much colder than normal tomorrow, we quickly rebound back to warmer conditions for most of the week until another cold shot next weekend. 

Monday
Keep in mind that at this point in March the average high and low in Hartford (BDL) is 43/25, while at Bridgeport it is 44/29.

March is a month where we see significant gains in daylight and average temperatures, and while a well timed shot of cold could easily bring snow in any part of the month, by March 15 the average high and low is 47/28 at Hartford and 47/32 at Bridgeport while the last day of March averages 53/33 at Hartford and 52/37 at Bridgeport. 

There will be no warmth on Monday. Our brief Arctic shot gradually eases, and some inland areas could be below freezing again after a very cold morning start for this time of year. At least it will be sunny with a slight breeze. 

Tuesday
Tuesday will return us to a warmer than normal regime, with temperatures rebounding into the upper 40s. It'll also be a sunny day, so it should be enjoyable. The quiet weather ends here, as a significant storm develops and cuts well to our west on Wednesday. Tuesday night looks dry at this time. 

Wednesday-Thursday
Our midweek storm should arrive by Wednesday morning, and while it will be warm, it will be windy. I expect some wind advisories for Wednesday and perhaps Thursday, but I'm not expecting major winds in the whole scheme of things. As a result, I am not expecting significant power outages at this time. 

The bulk of the rain looks to be Wednesday afternoon and evening, though some rain showers are also possible early Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday should have highs in the mid to upper 50s. 

Above: 18z Euro depicting the storm passing on Wednesday-Thursday. Rain will be heavy at times. 

Friday-Sunday
The end of the week looks quieter, with Friday a touch cooler but more sunny (it may get windy in the wake of the storm, however) and the weekend bringing the chance of more precipitation on Saturday as a weak system moves through the region.

There may be enough cold air for some snowflakes to fly in addition to the rain in northern CT, but for now I will just have rain chances. Temperatures look near normal Friday and Saturday, with Sunday likely a bit colder. Longer term, we're probably dealing with seesawing temperatures and modestly active conditions until about mid-March when it looks like we start seeing some more consistent warmth. Warmth is relative, folks. I don't think 70s and 80s (which would be well above normal this time of year) are marching through the door yet. 

Above: the GFS depiction of a weak system moving through the region Saturday. The track is too far north to bring much, if any, wintry precipitation, but if there is a further south track some snow would be possible. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 40s. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain, heavy at times. Windy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 90%. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy early with rain showers. Breezy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Friday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of snow showers 10%. 

Saturday: Partly sunny with rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Chance of rain 40%. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy, and seasonably chilly. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. 

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
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Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB