Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

We're starting to get to one of my favorite times of the year. It seems as if we blinked and here we are with May and Memorial Day right around the corner. April has been downright cold, with temperatures over 5 degrees below normal at BDL. Incredible.  

Well, it looks like the big cold departures from normal are going to become a thing of the past, as we head into the last month of meteorological spring. 

On May 1st, the average high temperature is 67 at BDL.
On May 31st, the average high temperature is 75 at BDL. 

This week we will see a first taste of summer. 

Sunday/Monday
Today and tomorrow are our last two cool days for the foreseeable future. We've seen rain showers through much of the day so far, as a cutoff low traverses the region. Although things look to be drying out a bit, with maybe even a few peeks of sun, there will be a continued chance of spot showers today so grab the umbrella just in case. Things will also be breezy, adding to the unfortunate chill that has refused to leave us alone. 

GOES visible satellite imagery. Things look to be drying out a bit, particularly in western parts of the state. 

Monday looks colder with more shower chances. Simply put, it's a fitting ending to April. A big change comes after that...

Tuesday
By Tuesday, the first day of May, the warmup begins. The cutoff low departs, and a large area of high pressure begins to build in the south. As a result, we get drier conditions and warmer temperatures. On Tuesday, highs should be breaking above normal. It will have a much different look and feel to what we've experienced the last few weeks. 

The GEFS upper level pattern evolution over the next week. We go from a cutoff low bringing cool and wet conditions to a large ridge of high pressure that brings summer-like warmth.

Wednesday/Thursday
Taste of summer!

The middle to end of the week looks downright warm, with high pressure firmly in control. We should be mostly dry during this period, with sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s inland. Temperatures could even go a bit higher in some of the usual favored valley locations. Highs will be a touch cooler at the shore with the sea breeze, but likely not by much. Maybe a midweek trip to the beach will be in order?

​While Wednesday looks to have humidity kept in check, Thursday could be a bit more humid, raising chances of showers or thunderstorms. 

Above, GFS highs for Wednesday. Below, GFS highs for Thursday. This week will look more like July! 

Friday
Friday is a transition day. We likely see another summer-like day, but a cold front will be approaching from the west. The key to this forecast period is the timing of the front. If it is slower, we see highs in the 80s and a chance of showers pushed off. If it is faster, we likely see slightly cooler temperatures and an increased shower risk. Right now, I am forecasting a slower progression of the front. 

Saturday
The start of the weekend currently looks nice. Should the cold front move through during the overnight Friday hours, after a few showers, we should see a beautiful Saturday with highs closer to seasonable averages across the state. 

The Dailies
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of showers 40%. 

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of showers 60%. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.  

Thursday: Mostly sunny, warmer, and increasing humidity. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of showers late 20%. 

Friday: Partly sunny with showers possible. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of showers 30%.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and seasonable. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of showers early 20%. 

​As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB

​Forecasters Discussion for 4/28/18
 
Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! Some wet weather today and this weekend looks to lead us weather-wise into a beautiful week next week. After what has been a cold, and abnormal April, we finally have some spring weather to look forward to in the forecast ahead.
 
Currently
Widespread scattered showers are leaving the state, with temperatures keeping fairly warm in the mid to upper 50s statewide.
 
Tonight/Thursday
Showers will taper off in the late hours of Wednesday night for the majority of the state. Cooling temperatures coupled with high dew points associated with the moist air will bring a chance for fog to develop overnight. Thursday looks nice as weak high pressure builds in behind the system, and a cold front crosses through the region bringing drier air.
 
Friday
Clouds will build in early in the day and thicken ahead of our system for Friday afternoon. Models agree that the storm should begin to affect the CT area Friday afternoon and leave by Friday night. This storm is a relatively small, and quick moving. Some pockets of decent instability could bring moderate rain to the eastern portion of the state, but widespread steady rain is expected. 

​Saturday/Sunday
Chance for scattered light rain across the state, otherwise cloudy with seasonal temps in the 60s. Late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning, a cold front will pass through with the chance of showers early. Following that skies will begin to clear as high pressure builds into New England.
 
Monday-Thursday
Very strong upper level ridging translates into strong high pressure that will reside over much of the Eastern half of the country. GFS positioning of this high pressure locates it over the southeast for most of the week, and this would pull dry air from Great Lakes over New England. This coupled with fair skies and good radiational heating will bring above seasonal temperatures statewide, and sunny, beautiful weather for the majority of next week. 

500 mb heights indicate ridging over the eastern portion of the country, suggesting fair skies and warm weather.
 
The Dailies
 
Tonight: Showers will taper off late, and patchy fog will develop late. Lows in the low 50s.
 
Thursday: Mostly sunny skies, becoming mostly cloudy by the evening. Highs in the 60s.
 
Friday: Chance for rain in the afternoon, ending late night. Highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.
 
Saturday: Overcast. Chance for an isolated shower or two. Highs in the 60s.
 
Sunday: Chance for a shower in the morning. Otherwise clearing skies by the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.
 
Monday: Sunny. Highs in the 60s.
 
Tuesday: Sunny. Highs in the 70s.
 
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
 
Thursday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 70s.
 
Enjoy your week!
-LD

In general, the upcoming pattern looks to feature something of a see-saw with regards to temperatures, which is not too atypical for this time of year.  As a result of the large temperature contrasts, two things will be common: First, a tendency for stormier than normal conditions, which is what a large temperature boundary would tend to create, and secondly, the potential for large temperature busts, especially if the frontal boundary is strong and centered over or near the state.

Currently: A warm front extended from near Green Bay to near Philadelphia.  This warm front triggered off some light rain over Pennsylvania, but that rain is now moving into a drier air mass and losing most of its punch.

Tonight: Temperatures probably will only fall a few degrees from where they are now, since this warm front will approach and clear the area.  I will be going a few degrees warmer than all temperature guidance.  As far as rain chances, a few sprinkles are possible from about I 84 on north, where there is slightly better forcing, until about sunset, otherwise I will not include rain in the forecast.

Tomorrow: Much warmer, due to being south of the warm front.  The temperature spread will be fairly common for what we see during an April afternoon; generally upper 60s to low 70s.  There could be some mid 70s along the I 91 corridor, and along the immediate SE coast, temperatures may not make it out of the low 60s.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: The NAM and the GFS are 15 to 20 degrees different regarding Saturday afternoon's temperatures, and this is because the NAM blasts the back door cold front through the area Saturday around midday, while the GFS waits until Saturday night.  The NAM does have a bias of bringing these things through too fast.  Additionally, climatology would make sense for this thing to go through more at night, rather than during the day.  However, there is also a very strong high pressure system to the north.  For now, I feel the conservative route is preferred, that is to say, almost a straight split of guidance, with a VERY slight lean toward the GFS.  This yields temperatures generally 60 to 65 across the state.  Suffice it to say, this is a VERY low confidence forecast.

Long Term (Sunday and beyond): As this frontal boundary goes nearly stationary and wobbles around near the state, waves of low pressure will develop and move along the frontal boundary.  Areas of rain, some of it heavy, will accompany the low pressure zones.  I will go about 5 to 7 degrees cooler than the GFS guidance north of the Merritt for Sunday and a degree or two lower than that guidance along the south coast, which yields a chilly and rainy day Sunday, with temperatures in the 40s across the state.  It should be noted that the long range NAM guidance is an all-out ice storm for the state.  For now, that guidance is being ignored, since it has no support, but it is interesting to keep in mind.

On Monday, the front begins heading back north.  It is unclear at this time whether or not the front will clear the region.  However, the GFS loves to blast these fronts north much further than reality at this range.  I will already be going about 5 degrees below GFS temperatures throughout the state on Monday, which yields statewide temperatures within a few degrees of 60, but that might not be cold enough.  Rain will dominate the weather picture on Monday.  In fact, even a few imbedded thunderstorms are possible Monday morning and early afternoon.  Rain begins to taper off later in the day.

Cool high pressure builds in on Tuesday at the surface, while an upper level low swings through the region.  Soundings show very low convective temperatures and very cold air aloft.  Models often overestimate high temperatures in a set up like this.  Therefore, I will once again go a solid 5 degrees lower than temperature guidance, and cap highs in the upper 40s throughout the state.  In addition, as that upper level disturbance swings through, some light showers will be triggered during Tuesday afternoon.  With such low temperatures aloft, it would not surprise me if some sleet pellets or snowflakes mixed in for a time.  When the upper air is very cold, this can sometimes happen with surface temperatures well above freezing.

For Wednesday and Thursday, a general moderating trend looks to be in store.  However, convective temperatures still remain low, so a lot of cloud cover should be generated each afternoon, and temperatures should still turn out a few degrees below guidance.  Additionally, another system in the flow buzzes through on Thursday, producing some light rain during the day.  As for temperatures, expect highs to range from 50 to 55 on Wednesday and a few degrees warmer on Thursday.  Wednesday morning should see widespread subfreezing temperatures north of the Merritt Parkway.

Looking into the longer range, a generally stormy pattern looks to continue, with temperatures riding a roller coaster of sorts, but generally averaging out below normal.  There are no hints of any major pattern changes on the horizon.

Now, let's take a look at Sunday's rain storm and how it evolves into Monday on the modeling.  This map is valid Sunday midday.  At this hour, the state is entirely in the cold sector, so expect chilly temperatures.  While there is no really heavy precipitation on that map, you can see lots of light rain, making for a raw, dreary, chilly Sunday.

​

Now, let's watch how this storm system evolves on Monday.  On this map, valid Monday morning, you can see the low moving straight east to near State College, PA.  As I alluded to, the warm front may not want to make it through the state, based on that positioning.  You can also see a good squall line setting up with the front.  Many times, the vast majority of the day will remain cold, then temperatures shoot up ahead of the cold frontal passage, and the cold front comes through with gusty winds.  That could be the case here.  So while high temperatures may be correct, they may be deceptively correct.

​

Anyway, that's all for now! Enjoy your weekend!

​-GP!

​Forecasters Discussion for 4/4/18
 
Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
Hope you all enjoyed the seasonal weather we had today since it looks like we are going to take a dive back into some colder weather this weekend! Models are predicting a stormy pattern for us over the next week, and dare I say it, the possibility of snow Friday and Saturday. The good thing is it isn’t anything too big to worry about, but I know how we all feel about seeing the word “snow” after the winter we just had. In this forecast we will talk about the two systems we are watching for this weekend, and how they will impact the state for this weekend.
 
Thursday
The upper level energy that brought us rain today tracks out to the Atlantic, and behind it a weak ridge builds in Thursday. This will bring sub-seasonal temperatures in the low 40s across the state, but at the same time keep the skies nice and sunny. Winds will start off strong and calm down by Thursday night, as an upper level shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes.  
 
Friday
Our first system that moves through will be the shortwave energy, and with temperatures below freezing for the early part of the day, we will expect the precip to be snow at first. Given this will be very light snow, statewide little to no accumulation is expected. By late afternoon, the onshore flow associated with the low will warm the air, and a switch to light rain is expected. Overcast conditions Friday night will lead us into the system we have been watching for the weekend.
 
Saturday
Models show a system developing over the Southeast US from the phasing of an upper level trough and weak energy over the Southeast. Consensus is that the precip will start Saturday morning as rain for most of the state before changing to snow, and end late Saturday night. Right now, the models can’t pinpoint the exact track of the precipitation shield, which would determine the intensity and amount of precipitation we will receive. Latest GFS and Euro models put the system further South than the NAM and Canadian models. Dry air to our north will play a factor in how far north the system will track, and also what type of precip we are to expect.
 
 The current GFS run looks like this: 

​And the current NAM run looks like this:

Latest qpf forecasts show 0.1”-0.25” across the state. Atmospheric soundings suggest this will be a wet snow, and 10:1 ratio would be bullish for a storm this late in the season. Given the qpf and a snowfall ratio of about 7:1 or 8:1, this would put out about 1-2 inches of snow. The issues we have with this storm is that warm temperatures may linger over the surface, and given the time of year it is and the type of system, it doesn’t look too supportive of significant snowfall. That said, should a NAM like solution verify, we would see much more impactful totals, so we will continue to monitor this system and provide you updates as we learn more information about it.
 
Sunday-Monday
Weak high pressure moves in behind our system. A few breaks of sun as temperature look to climb into the 40s for both days.
 
Tuesday-Wednesday
Another shortwave from the Great Lakes moves through and this time will bring cold rain for most of the day Tuesday, with temperatures in the low 40s statewide.
 
 
The Dailies:
 
Thursday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low 40s.
 
Friday: Snow showers in the afternoon changing over to light rain by the evening. Highs in the upper 30s. Little to no accumulation expected.
 
Saturday: Rain in the morning changing over to snow by the afternoon, and ending by nighttime. Chance of precipitation is 60%. C-2” of wet snow possible.
 
Sunday: Mostly sunny, highs in the 40s.
 
Monday: Mostly cloudy, highs in the 40s.
 
Tuesday: Rain. Highs in the low 40s.
 
Wednesday: Rain ending early. Highs in the mid 40s.
 
 
Thank you for reading SCW!
- LD

​Good morning and Happy Easter to you from SCW!
 
A dramatic change in the weather pattern has occurred since we last spoke, and it now looks like we are in line for a colossal blizzard tomorrow. Expect two to four feet of snow, with 70 mph winds and coastal flooding. For future forecast updates, come find me on a beach in the Caribbean, since we are officially sick of winter and relocating our operation to the tropics. Announcements on a name change forthcoming.
 
…
 
April Fools! Hope you checked the calendar before panicking, but hey, if we made you book a flight to the tropics, you probably needed a vacation anyway J
 
With that said, there is still a chance of snow in the forecast for tomorrow. Since the last discussion on Thursday, a pacific shortwave that was previously modeled to slide south of us and out to sea has come north far enough to bring some light snow into the region to start off your workweek tomorrow. While I have my doubts that this will be the significant event that some models show, I do expect to at least see some flakes in the air and some accumulations tomorrow, with a couple of inches of snow possible in the favored spots. Let’s take a look at the setup.
 
Models and Trends
 
Here’s a look at the evolution of the storm on the GFS. 

​Pretty simple setup. A pacific shortwave tracks almost due east, passing to our south but close enough to put us on the cold side of the precipitation shield and bring some light precipitation to the region. A few of the models have been more aggressive with the strength of the precipitation shield at various times, such as the 18z RGEM from yesterday below, but any trend that we’ve seen to push the system further north and strengthen it has been quickly reversed on the next model cycle. In general, the model consensus is overwhelmingly for a light event, although I caution you that outliers can and do verify (hence our bust on the last event) and we can’t ever discard them entirely.

​As far as QPF goes, looking at a consensus of generally a tenth to a quarter of an inch of QPF in northern areas and a quarter to a half of an inch in southern areas. In mid-winter, I’d be calling for 1-3” of snow in the north and 3-5” in the south based off of those numbers, but there are a couple of caution flags here that are keeping me relatively bearish. First off, we’ve already seen what a weak system against a dry airmass results in; last system was a prime example of that where we were forecast to be on the northern edge of the precipitation shield and ended up getting almost nothing due to the column failing to saturate. While this is a very different setup and the impacts of blocking to the north should be much less, it’s still worth keeping in mind. Secondly, given that most of this snow should fall during the day and it is in fact mid April, we need to consider the temperature profile and sun angle. Models are not especially for with this system, with temps generally in the 30-32 range. While that is cold enough to support snow, I think we’ll be seeing a lot of “white rain” unless rates are strong enough to overcome melting from the ground and from the higher sun angle. Some of the more aggressive models are strong enough to bring some banding up onto the south coast, in which case we’d likely be able to produce accumulations at pretty close to a 10:1 ratio. Aside from that possibility, the snow rates look relatively light, especially in northern areas, and so I’m thinking that shaving an inch or so off totals to account for melting is probably a good move here.
 
Personally, my gut feeling says that this is a relatively minor event, but it’s hard to ignore the almost unanimous consensus on the models for some sort of snowfall tomorrow morning. As such, will take the lower end of the forecast ranges and go with 2-4” for the south coast, 1-3” in central areas, and a coating – 2” in northern areas. Should the more aggressive solutions verify, we’d probably be about an inch too low across the board, but my confidence in that happening is low compared to what I think the odds are that this ends up as a general non-event for most. We’ll see what happens!
 
Forecast and Timing
 
Here’s our snowmap for this event.

​Unfortunately, the timing for this event is not the greatest; with the heaviest window of snow coming right in the middle of the morning commute. Should see snow start to break out in the SW corner of the state by about 6 AM and continue to overspread the state over the next hour or two. The system will be quick, with snow wrapping up in western areas by 11 AM or so and in eastern areas an hour or two later, but any heavier snow bands that do develop will be enough to cause issues during the morning commute. Nothing impassable by any means, but definitely leave plenty of extra time tomorrow morning and consider delaying any unnecessary travel until the afternoon when conditions will rapidly improve.
 
Impacts
 
Here’s the SCW impact scale for this event. I would expect some school delays across the state; not sure if any districts will choose to close given the timing of the event but given how quickly some areas have jumped to close school this year it wouldn’t shock me for some lucky folks to pick up another snow day out of this storm.

​Overall, a relatively minor event, but still enough to cause problems given the timing and the morning commute. We’ll update tomorrow morning on our social media platforms to give you a live look at the system, and we welcome your observations as well! Thanks for reading SCW and have a happy Easter with your family and friends.
-SA