Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.

It has been another wet day, as we ended the last weekend of April with below normal temperatures and light to moderate rain. Our very wet April will give us a bit of a reprieve tomorrow, but the balance of the week will be a continuation of the unsettled conditions that have dominated our spring so far. All of Connecticut saw well above normal rainfall during the month of April. ​

Tonight, those with sensitive plants should take note. A frost advisory is up for most of the state away from the shoreline for temperatures that are expected to bottom out in the 30s overnight. 

Monday 
​Tomorrow is looking decent. We should see clearing over the next few hours and although a bit chilly, tomorrow should start off nice enough. Over the course of the day, we will see increasing clouds in advance of the first in a series of systems that will impact the region. 

Tuesday-Wednesday
Temperatures should be cooler on Tuesday and Wednesday as we deal with rain showers. Tuesday doesn't look terrible currently, as rain looks to be centered on the early hours of the day. Wednesday is starting to look a bit better on the guidance, but an umbrella should probably be handy during the day. 

Thursday-Friday
The end of the week isn't looking much better, either. More rain and shower chances look likely on both Thursday and Friday, with Friday looking like it may be the wettest day of the week. Temperatures are likely to stay in line with what we see earlier in the week, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Not quite the 40s that we saw parts of this weekend, but not the best of conditions either. 

Saturday-Sunday
Currently, there is some hope in the weekend. If we're able to get these weak systems to pass through quickly, we may see a weekend with reduced rain chances. It has been a while since we've seen a totally rain free weekend, so fingers crossed! If we're able to stay clear of rain, temperatures should warm up to highs that are normal for this time of year. 

The Dailies
Monday: Patchy frost early. Partly sunny conditions with increasing clouds during the day. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 80%. 
 
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Saturday: Partly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.  

Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 

Final Note 
As I mentioned in a prior forecast, the rain and snowmelt from northern New England has caused flooding of a number of rivers and streams in New England. The Connecticut River has been in minor flood stage for a while, and is expected to crest in Hartford tomorrow. This is one of the higher peaks we've seen in recent years, and it shows. Here are some pictures I grabbed today while in Glastonbury. 

As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​

After a beautiful day today and another nice one tomorrow, the weather pattern looks to become unsettled and highly low-confidence and possibly widely fluctuating temperatures from day to day.  More details below.

Currently: Not a whole lot going on at the moment across the Eastern United States.  Only Maine is having unsettled weather today.  The cold front from last night has moved all the way down to near Richmond, VA, and ridging is in control.

Tonight: With good radiational cooling conditions (diminishing wind, clear skies and only some high cirrus arriving toward daybreak), I'll side with the cooler guidance for tonight.  Low temperatures should be within a few degrees of 40 statewide.

Tomorrow: The combination of increasing clouds and a developing onshore flow should keep readings several degrees cooler than today.  The GFS has a bias of underestimating sea breeze effects, a function of its coarser resolution.  However, sometimes the NAM overdoes things in that front.   Therefore, I'll split the difference, with maybe a slight hedge toward the NAM.  High temperatures should be in the 60 to 65 degree range.

Tomorrow Night/Friday: A system passing to the west should bring a round of rain to the state.  The theme for the event appears to be a heavy burst of rain in the morning, followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms the rest of the day, then more heavier rain at night.  The GFS has trended significantly drier for this event, but that will be ignored for the time being, as it has a tendency to do that at this range, followed by correcting itself later on.  As for temperatures, the same theme continues as Thursday, regarding the NAM and the GFS, so I used the same philosophy.  This results in high temperatures within a few degrees of 60.

Long Term: The long term picture at this point is very muddled.  Frontal boundar(ies) will remain close to the area, which could result in two things.  First, whenever a frontal boundary is near, the weather tends to be more unsettled, as showers and thunderstorms tend to move along and near frontal boundaries.  Secondly, it leads to a lot of uncertainty and potential high day to day variability in daily temperatures if the front wobbles a bit.  Finally, it can lead to huge temperature busts if the frontal system is a little bit north or south of where it was progged.  For now, I'll take my best stab at some dailies in the longer term.

Saturday: Sunny with a chilly wind and gusts in the 40-45 MPH range.  High temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.
Sunday: Showers and possible thunderstorms.  Very chilly with highs only 50-55.
Monday: Sunny but cool.  Highs only in the mid 50s.
Tuesday: Chilly with a few light showers possible.  Highs only in the low 50s.
Wednesday: A period of rain in the morning, breaks of some sun during the day.  A few sprinkles possible later.  A bit warmer. with highs approaching 60.

Now, let's take a look at a couple weather systems slated to affect the area, in graphical format.  On this run, valid late Friday afternoon, the GFS has much of Connecticut in a dry slot.  However, most models are not doing that, and it is not very easy to pinpoint where a dry slot will be this far out.  So just picture this for what it's worth: There is a storm nearby and lots of rain all around, yielding to an unsettled day.

​

Now, let's fast forward about 48 hours later.  We can see this little low over Southeastern Pennsylvania.  This storm is going to produce a swath of overrunning precipitation along and just to its north.  Exactly where that sets up is uncertain at this point, so I can't say for certain how much precipitation the area will get.  However, be advised that some areas may get thunderstorms with small hail, since the freezing level will be unseasonably low.

Anyway, that's all for now! See you next time!

​-GP!

Good evening from SCW.
While we’ve had some nice weather recently, that’s going to be pit on hold for a little while as a rainy pattern sets us up for several storms over the next week. While there will be some diamonds in the rough, the overall theme will be wet, but thankfully it doesn’t look like any late season snowstorms are in the cards.

Friday-Saturday
​
The first of several wet systems in the pipeline is currently elongated out along a warm front to our west and south; over the course of tomorrow it will slowly push east and bring some light rain to the region. While moisture levels will increase to near record levels during the day tomorrow, we will expect a chance for lighter rain throughout the day until better dynamics develop during the evening and the chance for heavier rain increases. Rain continues through Saturday as the warm front passes overhead and it is here where the best chance of some quick downpours will be found. Current high-res guidance favors western portions of the state right now for the most QPF, but we’re still a little ways out so expect some wobbles in the positioning of the warm front as we get closer. Rain moves out late Saturday, but some lingering showers could persist into the overnight hours.

Total QPF looks to be in the 1-1.5” range, but any areas that see persistent heavier precipitation will get noticeably more. Given the high levels of snowmelt to our north and the recent precipitation, rivers are quite full and so some minor flooding is to be expected, but nothing too significant should occur. More notable will be our first taste of elevated dewpoints this warm season as tropical moisture streams northward along the warm front. Overnight lows Friday night will only drop to the upper 50s to lower 60s, and with humidity near 100%, it’ll be the first “muggy” night of the season (although in July we’d probably think it’s pleasant ? ). Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s, maybe lower 70s in some spots on Friday depending on how long it takes rain to move in.

Here's a look at the system on the GFS.

Sunday-Tuesday

Weak cold front moves in Saturday night to cut off the heavier precipitation, but lingering showers could last into Sunday. Guidance shows another weak system moving in to start the workweek which could bring more rain Monday into Tuesday, although this one will likely be more scattered in nature. Given that there is little run to run consensus on what this looks like, will carry chance pops for showers through the period, but not expecting a total washout for all three days. What happens with temps will ultimately depend on how that system tracks, should we be on the warm side, widespread 70s are possible, whereas if we’re on the cool side we’ll likely rot in the 50s with rain. Will carry a compromise in the 60s for now, but stay tuned.

Here's a look at the forecast highs for Tuesday from the GFS. If we can hold off the rain it'll be quite nice, that said the wetter solutions are also the cooler ones so confidence in readings making it that high is quite low.

Wednesday-Thursday

Brief high pressure crosses the area between systems before yet another rainmaker lines up towards the end of the week. This one looks like an even weaker front at the moment on the models, but given how far out it is there’s still plenty of time for that to change. Will carry chance pops for Thursday for now. Highs on Wednesday look like 60s to maybe lower 70s along the coast, but cooling off for Thursday as the next front moves in.
​
The Dailies

Friday: A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday: Rain. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Sunday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of precipitation is 40.

Monday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Chance of precipitation is 40%

Tuesday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the lower 60s to mid 60s. Chance of precipitation is 50%

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

​Thursday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 
Overall a wet forecast, but after Saturday not a washout and I do think we’ll see the sun poke through at times even on those partly cloudy days. Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA

Good evening from SCW. 

This is a short discussion tonight. After a wonderful weekend with warm and mostly sunny conditions, we will start the next week with rainy conditions. Overall, the week is looking stormy, with a few nice days mixed in. 

Monday-Tuesday
Rain showers will overspread the state tonight, and tomorrow is looking damp. One of the biggest questions is where a warm front hangs up. Those on the right side of the wedge will see temperatures in the 60s, with those on the wrong side possibly seeing highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. My guess is that much of Tolland and Windham Counties end up on the colder side, while the rest of the state "lucks out". Overall, this isn't expected to be a big rain event, but you'll want the umbrella during the day. Rain should depart briefly during the evening hours, but more showers are possible Tuesday with cooler conditions statewide.  

Above: NAM Hi-Res depiction of the rain showers on Monday and Tuesday. Although not expected to be a big rain event, rain could be moderate to heavy at times tomorrow, especially in the morning. 

Wednesday-Thursday
The middle of the week looks cooler, but we should see better conditions on Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds in briefly after the unsettled weather departs. Temperatures look to be slightly below normal both days. 

Friday-Sunday
We return to unsettled conditions as we move into the weekend. Another system looks to traverse the region on Friday, though the timing is still unclear. Currently, it looks like a weak system will bring rain showers on Friday and possibly into early Saturday. Should things clear in time, Saturday will be an ok day. 

Sadly, that may not necessarily last, as another rain event is possible on Sunday. This far out though, there's plenty of time for that to change. Temperatures should be a bit warmer than they were on the preceding days. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s in central and southern CT, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s in northeast CT. Chance of rain 90%. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 40%. 

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and seasonably cool. Highs in the low 50s. 

Thursday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s. 

Friday: Increasing clouds with rain showers possible. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 40%. 

Saturday: Chance of showers early with clearing during the day. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of early showers 20%. 

Sunday: Increasing clouds with a chance of rain late. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 30%. 

As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​