As GP mentioned a few days ago in his forecast, we've moved toward a more typical spring pattern, with seesaw conditions and temperatures gradually rising as we move closer toward mid-spring. The week ahead looks mostly benign, but the end of the work week does look unsettled. This should be a fairly straightforward forecast. Let's dive in.
This is likely the best part of the forecast period weather wise. Both days look sunny, with tomorrow being cooler and breezy with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Tuesday is probably the best weather day of the week, with less windy conditions, continued sunny skies, and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Wednesday is tricky. The guidance suggests that there are some ingredients available to create a somewhat favorable environment somewhere in New England late in the afternoon. That said, it is unclear if there will be enough of a trigger for thunderstorm development. For now, we will keep rain chances low and will watch the period.
For those that track severe weather, the thunderstorm that produced last week's tornado, which was the earliest on record in CT by the way, is the exception to the rule. We really don't start seeing consistent ingredients for strong to severe thunderstorms until mid-May, with the peak of thunderstorm season occurring in June and July.
Thursday and Friday look like the most unsettled period, rain wise. Currently, it doesn't look like either day is a washout, but it does look like a period where you will want to have an umbrella handy. With regard to temperatures, overall it looks seasonable, with highs in the 60s and low 70s. Below is a GFS depiction of Wednesday-Friday. Wednesday could bring some storm chances as I explained above, but Thursday and Friday have better shower probabilities.
The weekend right now looks fine, but it could be a rinse and repeat type scenario with Saturday looking great in the wake of the front and Sunday looking cooler and wet as another possible system approaching. Overall, temperatures look seasonable.
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