Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

As GP mentioned a few days ago in his forecast, we've moved toward a more typical spring pattern, with seesaw conditions and temperatures gradually rising as we move closer toward mid-spring. The week ahead looks mostly benign, but the end of the work week does look unsettled. This should be a fairly straightforward forecast. Let's dive in. 

Monday-Tuesday
This is likely the best part of the forecast period weather wise. Both days look sunny, with tomorrow being cooler and breezy with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Tuesday is probably the best weather day of the week, with less windy conditions, continued sunny skies, and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. 

Wednesday-Friday
Wednesday is tricky. The guidance suggests that there are some ingredients available to create a somewhat favorable environment somewhere in New England late in the afternoon. That said, it is unclear if there will be enough of a trigger for thunderstorm development. For now, we will keep rain chances low and will watch the period. 

For those that track severe weather, the thunderstorm that produced last week's tornado, which was the earliest on record in CT by the way, is the exception to the rule. We really don't start seeing consistent ingredients for strong to severe thunderstorms until mid-May, with the peak of thunderstorm season occurring in June and July. 

Thursday and Friday look like the most unsettled period, rain wise. Currently, it doesn't look like either day is a washout, but it does look like a period where you will want to have an umbrella handy. With regard to temperatures, overall it looks seasonable, with highs in the 60s and low 70s. Below is a GFS depiction of Wednesday-Friday. Wednesday could bring some storm chances as I explained above, but Thursday and Friday have better shower probabilities. 

Saturday-Sunday
The weekend right now looks fine, but it could be a rinse and repeat type scenario with Saturday looking great in the wake of the front and Sunday looking cooler and wet as another possible system approaching. Overall, temperatures look seasonable. 

The Dailies
Monday:

Tuesday:

Wednesday:

Thursday:

Friday:

Saturday:

Sunday:

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-DB​ ​

Disc: We have to endure about another 18 hrs or so of much below norm temps before a pattern much more typical of mid-spring sets in.

Currently: Sprawling high pressure extends from the Srn Plains to the SE Coast.  Low pressure over New Brunswick province is aiding in producing a pressure gradient and strong winds.

Tonight: You may want to leave delicate plants inside or at least covered up for one more night, esp away from the cities and S coast.  Winds should be lighter than last night, which should allow for better radiative conditions.  Therefore, I've gone a few deg below guidance.   As is typical on a night like this, there will be wide ranges in temps.  Lows will avg out near 30, but mid 20s are possible in the NW hills and sheltered valleys, w/mid 30s in the cities and S coast.

Tomorrow: Temps moderate and winds diminish.  It will still be breezy, however, and an isolated rogue gust to 30 MPH is not out of the question.  W/advection near neutral, I've gone close to guidance on temps.  Expect highs generally around 60, except 60-65 along the I 91 corridor.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: Sat is definitely the winner of the weekend.  Clouds will increase, but rain from the next system will remain well to our S and W.  For temps, I've gone close to guidance, w/a few local adjustments here and there.  Look for highs generally in the mid 60s.  If we stay sunny long enough, some upper 60s are possible along the I 91 corridor!

Long Term (Sun and beyond): The main system for the long term is a coastal low progged to develop later Sat, then head up the coast Sun.  The low track is ideal for a quick-hitting, but heavy slug of rain on Sun, mainly in the morning hours.  There could be a larger-than-normal temp diff between NE CT and SW CT Sun afternoon, if any clearing occurs over SW CT.  For now, given that we are still three days out, I will not get too cute w/temps.  But I want to mention this as a possibility.  Having mentioned all this, I am stil expecting clouds to dominate the day throughout the state, and if the SW does get any sun, it will not be until well after optimum sun angle.  So I have gone a few deg below guidance, w/mostly upper 50s expected for highs.

The rest of the long term should be fairly benign, with generally moderating temps.  Mon could start out a bit chilly, w/fresh CAA behind the departing storm.  In addition, Mon should be windy, w/gusts to 40 MPH quite possible.  For temps, I went close to guidance, w/a few local adjustments here and there.  Highs should mainly be in the mid 60s.

For Tue, winds should still stay up for a while, with gusts to 35 MPH still possible, esp in the first half of the day.  For temps, again stayed close to guidance, w/just a few local adjustments.  Highs should range from the mid to upper 60s, w/the coolest readings along the S coast.

High pressure moves offshore for Wed, so temps should respond by turning warmer.  Temp guidance looks fine at this range.  Highs should be in the low to mid 70s, w/the coolest readings along the S coast.

For Thu, I went a couple deg above guidance.  Guidance has a tendency to bias toward climo at that range, and we'll be above climo.   There could be a wide range in temps on Thu, w/only near 70 along the S coast, mid 70s for much of the state, and near 80 in the I 91 cities.  Way too far out to get cute w/temps.

The long range looks quite a bit uncertain, but a lot more typical for spring.  All in all, I think temps in the day 8-14 avg out somewhere near norm.  There will be an intense thermal gradient nearby.  It is not impossible for some areas to be in the low 50s w/rain and others, less than 200 miles away, to be sunny and near 90.  That is not too uncommon this time of yr.

W/only one significant system progged to affect the area in the next seven days, there will be just one graphic today.  This map, valid around dawn on Sun, shows low pressure right over the Del Bay.  Precip tapers off quickly after the low center passes by.  This is why some clearing could occur in SW CT late in the day, but NE CT prob remains socked in all day.

​

Anyway, that's all for now! Take care and see you next week!

​-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

After our big storm on Thursday and Friday that brought rain and snow to Connecticut, things calmed down in time for the weekend. The week ahead looks to continue our general pattern, which includes the typical New England spring seesaw between nice and unsettled conditions. Let's dive in. 

Above: a National Weather Service estimate of rain in CT over the last week, the majority fell during our spring storm. 

Monday
Tomorrow should start off nice, but we are likely to see increasing clouds as a line of showers and possibly some thunderstorms move through the state as a weak disturbance approaches. Western CT has the best chance of seeing showers or thunderstorms but it might be worthwhile having an umbrella handy for later in the day. Given the upper level profile, we're not expecting any severe weather. That said, some small hail or gusty winds may be possible. Temperatures should continue their upward rebound with highs in the 60s. 

Tuesday
Tuesday looks like the pick of the week. In the wake of the disturbance we should see clearer skies and warmer temperatures. For inland areas, highs may top out around 70! If there's a day to get outside, Tuesday is it! 

Wednesday-Friday
The middle to end of the work week is more unsettled, with another disturbance passing to our north and west on Wednesday. This will bring us our best chance of rain for the week, though we do not expect the same kind of rainfall we saw this past week. The storm departs and we clear out for Thursday, but conditions look breezy as colder air advects in. Highs are likely to be in the lower 50s during this period. Friday we start to see a bit of a rebound, but it's still a bit cooler than we'd like, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

Above: GFS depiction of the midweek system. Although it's looking increasingly likely that it will bring snow to parts of New England, we are not expecting much, if anything, here in CT. 

Saturday-Sunday
At first glance, the weekend is looking mixed. Most of Saturday currently looks ok, but we will be watching another weak system cross the region at some point on late Saturday or Sunday. Should the system reach us slower, Saturday would be a nice and seasonably warm day. That's where I lean currently. That means Sunday would feature cooler temperatures and shower chances. We're a ways out here, so let's see what future data suggests. 

The Dailies
Monday: Partly cloudy early with increasing clouds and a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 40%. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 60%

Thursday: Partly cloudy and breezy. Cooler. Highs in the low to mid 50s. 

Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds late. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. 

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the low 60s. Chance of rain 30%. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​ ​

Disc: Today's storm is a continuation of a pattern that supports below normal temps and normal to above normal precip across the area.

Currently: Low pressure has developed about 150 mi E of Ocean City. MD.  A cold front was over E  PA.  This combo will insure that the low will not really bomb out too much until it gets near Montauk.  This means the heaviest precip will likely be over E CT.

Tonight: A rainy, turning colder, night.  Over SW CT, most rain wraps up by midnight.  However, over E CT, esp NE CT, rain continues all night.  I went pretty close to guidance on temps, w/local adjustments here and there.  Lows generally near 40 degrees, except 35-40 North of about I 84.

Tomorrow: For SW CT, generally mostly cloudy, w/a break or two of sun possible, and a possible stray sprinkle or flurry in the afternoon.  Across NE CT, periods of rain, mixed with snow, with little or no accums possible.  I carefully looked over NBM snow levels, and the consensus is 1500 feet.  Now, that is generally the level for accumulating snow, not just seeing snowflakes.   The upper levels support snow anywhere precip can fall heavy enough to bring some cold air down.  If we take the NBM snow levels and assume they're trained that 32 deg is the magic snow line and assume it can accumulate on car tops and grass at 34 deg, then we can lower the snow level a bit.  Even so, do not expect any accums below 1.000 feet (maybe 900 feet?) or so.  In addition, any accums will be over the Tolland/Windham hills, not Litchifield, since there likely won;t be heavy enough precip in W CT for any accums.  Temps are very tricky.  Going a couple deg below guidance would yield upper 40s for most of the state, maybe even a rogue 50+ in Wrn areas that get sun.  However, NE CT may not get out of the 30s! In addition, winds gusting to 30 MPH will make it feel very chilly!

Tomorrow Night/Sat: Conditions gradually improve everywhere.  I'll still subtract a couple deg off guidance, given upper level temps look cold.  So expect highs in the mid to upper 50s w/clearing skies.

Long Term (Sun and beyond): For Sun, I subtracted a good 3 to 5 deg off guidance.  I cannot see how Sun is warmer than Sat, given a ULL will pass overhead w/increasing clouds and a slight chance of a shower in the afternoon.  The ULL also means upper levels are cool, so another reason to not expect big warmth.  Highs generally in the mid 50s, maybe a few upper 50s along I 91.

For Mon, I still think guidance looks a touch too warm, so I made a few adjustments.  The upper levels do warm, but there will still be a ULL spinning overhead, so we cont a slight chance of showers in the afternoon hrs.  High temps warm to around 60, except 60-65 along I 91.

For Tue, this is prob the pick of the week.  We finally get the ULL out of the way and get high pressure to our W.  This sets up a day filled with sun and a downsloping breeze.  Because of this, I went a couple deg above guidance.  Highs generally in the upper 60s, with the coolest readings along the S coast.

For Wed, I chopped about 5 deg off guidance for most locations.  A fairly strong cold front will be moving thru.  Guidance often struggles w/temps that many days out and Wed should be no exception.  I have cut highs down to generally the low 60s, although some places in the NW hills may not get out of the upper 50s.  Speaking of the cold front, it does not have tons of moisture to work with.  However, the potency of the front alone warrants a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.

For Thu, upper levels turn impressively cold for the time of yr! The -5C line at 850 is progged to cross into SNJ! In addition, yet another ULL spins into the area.  Therefore, there will be isolated to scattered showers Thu Afternoon, and the ptype will likely be snow or sleet! As for temps, I went with a few deg below guidance for highs, which would yield mid 50s, with a few upper 50s along I 91.  Keep in mind, however, temps could be very tricky.  It is not uncommon for temps to drop 15 deg in less than an hr in areas that get any of those showers in Apr w/upper levels so cold! 

In the long range, as we head into the rest of Apr, I do not really see any big-time mechanisms for changing the overall hemispheric pattern and kicking us out of the regime of cool temps and unsettled wx, at least not for the next 10-15 days.

I am only going to post one graphic today, and it is valid for tomorrow.  Since this storm is already ongoing, I just want to show the discrepancy one might see from SW CT to NE CT tomorrow.  Taking a look at that map, look how dry it is in SW CT, where no precip is falling at all.  Meanwhile N CT is seeing steady moderate pcpn!

Anyway, that's all for now! Enjoy the rest of your day and see you next week!

​-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

Today was more meh than anything else, but fortunately, we are seeing some much needed rain this evening. The week ahead is looking more unsettled than the previous few weeks, but nothing currently screams total washout. Let's dive in. 

Monday-Tuesday
The start of the work week is looking unsettled. The rotating low out in the west that is bringing the rain is expected to slowly move east, meaning that tomorrow will also bring periods of showers, that may be heavier at times. It won't rain the entire time, and some parts of the state probably won't see all that much. These kinds of low pressure precipitation patterns tend to be hit or miss. 

This likely continues into early Tuesday, but the day should dry out as it progresses. Temperatures are likely to be pretty cool relative to normal on Monday, but Tuesday should see a modest rebound in high temperatures. On Tuesday the best chance of rain will be in SW CT. 

Wednesday-Friday
The middle of the week looks to be the brief quiet period. It won't last long. Wednesday looks cloudy and seasonable, but it should be a dry day. 

Thursday looks unsettled again. Both the GFS and Euro take another sprawling low from the west through the region Thursday and Friday. This one looks stronger than the one we're currently contending with, and adding to the uncertainty is the possible secondary development of a coastal low as the broader low treks east. That means a cold rain looks likely on Thursday and at least early Friday, but the guidance is also showing the potential for snowflakes in parts of New England. 

Right now, I'm not biting. I think the most likely outcome is a period of rain on Thursday followed by a reinforcing shot of unseasonably cold and rain late Thursday into early Friday. We'll continue to watch in case we do see a continued colder trend for elevated areas of northern and western CT. Nothing really worth thinking about too much right now.

Friday could go either way in terms of precipitation. The GFS currently wants to keep rain showers around into Saturday, but other guidance clears out sooner. Right now, I think we see decreasing chances on Friday as the day progresses, but that's another thing to watch. 

Below is a GFS depiction of the late week storm. It's only useful for the general progression, not hour by hour details. 

Saturday-Sunday
For now, the weekend is looking cloudy with a chance of showers on each day. If the late week low moves out sooner, we might be able to get a nice day out of the weekend, much like this weekend. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 60%. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers early. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 40%. 

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 60s. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 60%. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy and seasonably cold with rain showers. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 40%. 

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the low 60s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 30%. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​ ​