One last shot of wintry temps and winds will prevail the next couple days, before giving way to wx that is at least closer to normal.  But there still are no real huge signs of sustained warmth anywhere on the horizon.

Currently: One cold front well offshore.  A secondary cold front will pass thru this afternoon and evening, w/o much fanfare, other than gusty winds.  There could be a brief sprinkle (or even flurry in the Hills) w/its passage, but any precip will be brief and light.

Tonight: If you have any plants outside, you may want to bring them in.  I've gone way under temp guidance, as it overestimated temps today, and may be underestimating them tonight.  Temps plunge to near 30 degrees, w/mid 20s possible in the northern corners of the state!

Tomorrow: Went pretty close to guidance, except undercut it a bit in the NW Hills.  Sunny, windy, and chilly, w/high temps 50-55.

Tomorrow night/Fri: Tomorrow night prob ends up a deg or three warmer than tonight, so take that into account re:plants.  For Fri, winds will stay up for one more day.  Again, generally went close to guidance temps, but a bit below up north.  Highs generally mid to upper 50s.

Long Term: The weekend is beautiful, w/o much wx to talk about.  The picture gets more complicated as we get into next week.

For Sat, winds diminish to near calm.  Guidance again looks pretty good, so followed closely, with highs generally near 60, but I did take guidance a few deg warmer near I 91, and went 60-65 there, w/downslope & urban heating.

For Sun, again guidance looks good and generally followed, w/a slight tweak upward in the I 91 corridor.  Generally looking at highs in the mid to upper 60s.

For Mon, showers are possible all day, as a sys approaches.  Warm front will approach the area, but never really get all that close.  Looks like one of those days w/a decent shot of rain in the morn, then light rain/drizzle the balance of the day.  Because the warm front will never make it through, and because of clouds and rain, I went under guidance temps, so look for highs only in the mid to upper 50s.

For Tue, prob a mostly cloudy day between sys.   We don't really clear out, because the next sys is fast on the heels of the last one, but we don't really see any pcpn during the daylight hrs either.  I went fairly close to guidance on temps, w/some tweaks for mesoscale effects.  Highs generally in the mid to upper 60s.

We should get a shot of rain later Tue night, w/a lingering shower possible into Wed morn, then we clear out and it turns out to be a pretty nice day on Wed.   Followed guidance real closely, just raised temps a bit near I 91.  Highs in the mid 60s generally, but a few upper 60s along I 91.

The long range looks to see a very progressive pattern, overall.  In terms of sensible wx, this means a few things.  First, we don't get much of a chance to have a long, sustained warm up, since cold fronts will follow in quick succession and Bermuda ridges will not have much chance to get established.  Secondly, it rains frequently, but no rain event lasts too long, since everything is moving so fast.  Finally, depending on the exact track of each sys, we could see highly variable temps.

No graphics today, because no precip is expected until Day 5.

See you next week!

​-GP!

Disc: In the wake of our coastal storm, there won't be much in the way of significant wx for the next week or so.  Temps will be volatile and highly dependent on the wind speed & direction, so bust potential is higher than normal.

Currently: Cold high pressure near VA Beach providing the region with fair, but chilly wx today.

Tonight: Clouds increase, esp in the 2nd half of the night, so less than ideal radiational conditions.  Went very close to NBM guidance.  Frost formation is possible in the usually cooler 1/2 of the state.  If you have any early plants planted, follow appropriate precautions.  Temps generally in the mid to upper 30s.

Tomorrow: Again went pretty close to guidance.  Nothing major pulling me too far from it.  I do think we could be 10-20% cloudier than the NBM thinks, so I went just a deg or two lower here and there.  Most, if not all, pcpn associated w/the little wave should stay to our north, so no precip in fcst.  High temps generally in the mid to upper 50s.

Tomorrow Night/Fri: Sunny and nice.  Again went very close to guidance, w/no real reason to go one way or the other.  Highs generally in the mid 60s, give or take a couple deg.

Longer Term: The only major system in the long term is a fairly strong cold frontal passage on Tue.  There is a nonzero chance that it could spawn a chilly coastal low for Wed.  But the chance is not real high, so that will not be included in the fcst (at least explicitly) right now.

For Sat, it looks like the wind flow is predominately onshore, so I went a bit below guidance temps.  Looks like a chilly day, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.

For Sun, I went closer to guidance.  It could be an interesting day, as we bounce in and out of strong onshore flow.  But I think there's enough of a break, or at least lessening in winds, to allow the entire state to get near 60, w/a corridor of up to 65 possible along I 91.

For Mon, I went just a touch below guidance on temps, w/highs generally in the upper 50s.  Mon looks very similar to tomorrow, as a weak sys skirts by to the north, producing more mid and high level clouds than today's models suggest, but keeping all the precip to the north.

For Tue, we get some rain along a cold front.  Some models do try to develop a chilly coastal low and linger it into Wed, so adjustments may need to be made here.  For now, discounting that solution.  I am predicting a similar fropa to the one we had last Sat night, when most of the rain falls after the fropa, so no t-storms expected.  There could be a decent burst of rain either way.  Guidance seems to be hinting at a warm surge ahead of this, but seems to forget that the Long Island Sound is S of CT, so I went way under guidance and have highs in the mid 50s.

For Wed, went just a bit below guidance on temps, w/fresh cold air advection.  Highs only get to the mid and upper 50s, despite sun.  Gusty NW flow adds to the chill.  Obviously, if there is a coastal low, this fcst will have to be adjusted colder and rainier, but that is an outlier solution for now.

The long range is still basically unchanged from last week's disco.  There still are not really any signs of any long-term significant warm up in the long range to speak of.

No graphics today, w/no significant systems expected until day 6.

That's all for now! See you next week!

-GP!

Disc: The header implies that we won't see tomorrow's wx for a very long time and that is the theme here.  So let's get right to it.

Currently: The entire state is now in the warm sector...

Tonight: Temps will not fall very much, esp along the coast where temps are cool now.  Went close to guidance.  Morning temps only in the upper 50s.  There is just a slight chance of  a shower overnight, bu most places will see little or nothing.

Tomorrow: First off, SPC has placed most of the state in a slight risk of svr t-storms and I tend to agree.  I would include everyone except the SE 1/4 of the state and that's basically what SPC did.  Out of an abundance of caution, I went just  a bit lower than NBM temps.  But it could very well be a bit warmer.  I just wanted to be cautious in case clouds arrive early (or linger later).  Even so, still looking at highs of 70-75 for most, w/warmer along I 91 and cooler along the S coast.

Tomorrow Night/Fri: Cooler air filters in.  After storms leave, very nice wx for tomorrow night into Fri.  Went a bit under guidance for Fri's highs, because there is actually decent cold air advection.  Look for highs on Fri of 60-65.

Long Term: The main concern in the long term is a coastal low early next week.  
First off for Sat, I went way under guidance.  Cold front approaches and the upper levels are already cold.  So look for a quick period of showers and t-storms in the afternoon, w/high temps for most in the upper 50s.

For Sun, many people will be celebrating Easter, look for sun, but a chilly day for the time of yr! Went close to guidance, but this may be too warm if we get CU development.  At any rate, 50-55 on a sunny day in mid-Apr is pretty chilly!

For Mon, clouds will increase ahead of the next sys.  I went quite a bit under guidance, due to clouds moving in, onshore flow, and an already chilly air mass in place.  Highs generally low 50s, MAYBE a few mid 50s along I 91 IF the sun can stay out long enough.

A coastal low of some sort will affect the area later Mon into early Tue.   Details are still uncertain at this point regarding the exact evolution of the storm, how long it will last, how strong it deepens, exact track, etc.  So I have chance POPs Mon afternoon, likely Mon night and then back to chance Tue.  It appears pretty definite that we'll at least get a shot of rain Mon night, maybe more than that depending on how the sys evolves.  It should also be windy on Tue, regardless of whether it is directly from the coastal or as the storm pulls away.  For now, I have assumed we clear out on Tue.  This assumption gives us highs in the mid 50s, w/upper 50s along I 91, which is right in line with guidance.

Wed is a nice day between systems.  Stayed close to guidance w/no reason not to.  Looks like mostly upper 50s for highs.  More rain prob for Thu.

The long range looks to be summed up succinctly by saying that there are no signs of any sustained warmth as far as the eye can see!

As for graphics today, I have the thunderstorms for tomorrow, and one representation of the rain Monday night.  The GFS, which I am showing here, shows a cold front, w/enhanced rain from an offshore low, but not a true coastal.  Other models are more robust.  I think the GFS will be wrong.

Anyway, that's all for now! See you next week!

​-GP!

That's all for now, see you next week!

​-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

Happy April! As the headline suggests, the start of April is bringing continued unsettled weather to the state. April tends to be one of the transition months for Connecticut, often bringing cool and unsettled conditions as we gain sunlight and move toward a warmer regime. 

Hartford
April 1 Sunset: 7:16pm
April 30 Sunset: 7:48pm
April 1 Average High Temp: 54
April 1 Average Low Temp: 33
April 30 Average High Temp: 67
April 30 Average Low Temp: 44

Bridgeport 
April 1 Sunset: 7:17pm
April 30 Sunset: 7:48pm 
April 1 Average High Temp: 53
April 1 Average Low Temp: 37
April 30 Average High Temp: 64
April 30 Average Low Temp: 47

Now let's get to the forecast. 

Monday-Tuesday
The start of the week is looking pretty nice. After a wet Sunday evening we see clouds depart and high pressure move into the region as our cutoff low departs. Note, this is cutoff season, where very slow moving systems bring misery mist and cooler than normal conditions. 

We should see breezy but sunny conditions on Monday, with seasonable highs. It'll feel good outside though as the sun angle continues to increase. Tuesday looks even better, with highs likely to be in the low 60s in the interior. These are definitely the picks of the week. 

Wednesday-Friday
Unfortunately, that'll be the extent of our nice weather streak. By late Tuesday night, we see showers entering the state as the next weather system approaches. Wednesday looks wet, especially early, but showers will be possible through the day as a coastal storm passes to our south and offshore. We should see a break in the heavier rain though, so Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday should be ok before the next system. Temperatures will be cooler and below normal. 

Thursday brings the next rain maker and it looks like a washout day. Friday currently looks better, but we will probably see more showers if we get redevelopment off the coast. Overall, this period looks wet, cool, and cloudy. 

Saturday-Sunday
​In the wake of another cutoff low, we should see better conditions for the weekend, but it looks like we won't be too far away from showers. Temperatures are likely to be a little warmer than the rainy stretch, but we have to watch to see if we see more cloudy conditions and widespread showers. That said, I don't think I'd cancel any outdoor weekend plans at this time, we can still see some nice conditions. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and breezy. Highs in the mid 50s. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 90%.  

Thursday: Rain. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 90%.  

Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 40%. 

Saturday: Partly cloudy with rain showers possible. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 10%. 

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Thank you for reading SCW. 
​
-DB