Hello from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

It sucks but it's long past time to submit the grade for our biggest storm of "winter" 2022-23, the truest microcosm of the worst winter on record for much of Connecticut. 

Honestly, I should have done this weeks ago, but I was totally worn out by the disaster of constantly tracking ten day potential. As a result, this will have a different look with the verification map, but the grading will be all the same. 

Above: the final call SCW map of snowfall for the event. 

Below: the actual result. This was a historic storm in areas just to our north. 

Timing 
Overall, the timing worked ok. It started as rain and the rain/snow line gradually collapsed overnight. However, that cooler scenario did not pan out and much of southern CT and the CT River Valley fought the temps and dry slotting all day. While many did change to snow, it didn't really happen at the shore. That has implications on other parts of the forecast. 

Grade: B

Snow Accumulation
As you know, this was the hardest forecast of my career, to the extent that this can be called a career lol. The guidance was awful, and even with our adjustments it was too warm in southern CT and through much of the CT River Valley. However, the forecast worked out well in our high confidence NW CT zone, and worked out fine but to a lesser extent in eastern CT. By failing to meet an already low bar for most of CT, this grade is one of the worst I've given out. NW CT saved this from being an F. 

Grade: D

Wind 
Another really rough forecast. To my surprise, we saw inland gusts barely verify, but along the shore there was less wind than expected. Not by much, so the grade isn't horrible. I think the lack of a strong high to the north reduced the pressure gradient, which would have brought bigger wind as the low rapidly intensified.  

Grade: C

Power Outages
This was probably the high point of the forecast, unfortunately. As we expected, the combination of wind (just strong enough) and heavy wet snow in NW CT led to widespread outages. The lack of snow elsewhere limited outages, but we didn't predict widespread outages in other parts of the state. 

Grade: A

​Overall Impact
There was an extraordinary gradient, with high impact in some regions and virtually little wintry impact elsewhere. Some parts of towns received a high impact event, and other parts saw nothing. It ended up far more elevation dependent, and although we did see widespread cancellations, that doesn't speak to the true impact of the storm. We went moderate to high impact for the state, and it verified in NW CT, to a lesser extent, NE CT, and nowhere else. Ugh. 

Grade: D

Overall Grade
Overall, for such a high stakes and uncertain forecast we didn't do as well as we'd hoped. Even with the passage of time I still feel that way. As conservative as we were, it still wasn't enough for most of CT, that had a pretty epic fail with this one. For NW CT, it was high impact and we got that right, but a lot of the state outside of some parts of NE CT fell short of the forecast.

Final Grade: C

I'm surprised that it's actually this high, but it's a low C for sure. I will always hate this forecast and "winter". 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 

​-DB

Good evening and Happy Easter from Southern Connecticut Weather.

Despite our chilly period the last few days, "winter" has mercifully come to an end. The week ahead is looking like the best weather week of the year, which usually means an easy forecast! Let's dive in. 

Above: the 12z European Ensemble showing the projected upper level (500mb) pattern over the next week. It's dominated by big ridging that slides east over time, bringing increasingly warm weather and tranquil conditions for the week ahead. 

Monday
Much like today, tomorrow looks beautiful with temperatures a few degrees warmer than the day before. High pressure is in place, meaning very few clouds, if any. Highs look to be in the low to mid 60s, which will feel fantastic. 

Throughout the week, the shoreline is the wildcard, as water temperatures in the 40s mean that air temperatures could be a few degrees colder than the forecast if there is any hint of a sea breeze. That said, it's going to be beautiful down there too. 

Above: the current sea surface temperatures along the Eastern Seaboard. Long Island Sound is cold! This acts as a moderating influence on temperature in the spring along the shore, and also helps bring stability that limits (often) severe weather potential in southern CT during peak severe season in CT in May and June. ​

Tuesday-Wednesday
Still beautiful, but we may see more breezy conditions. With the dry conditions, there will be some fire hazard, which just means be extra careful if you are out grilling or dealing with any particular sparks. Inland, Tuesday and Wednesday look ten degrees warmer than Monday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Along the shore it'll be a little cooler, but highs will still be approaching 70, and will easily top 70 if there's a period without a sea breeze in the afternoon. During the week SE CT is most at risk of the breeze. 

Thursday-Friday
The end of the work week brings the taste of summer. The big ridge in the first image will be moving over the region during that period, and that mean heat. As a reminder, the average high temperature on the 15th is around 60 degrees, and we will be seeing temperatures at the end of the work week that are in the low to mid 80s inland. It doesn't look like an all out hazy, hot, and humid period, but you'll notice the warmth. SE CT will be the favored spot if you like cooler temperatures! 

Below is a Euro operational model depiction of temperatures Thursday-Sunday. I do think it'll be a little warmer than stated on Thursday and Friday. Notice how the southern portion of the state see cooler temperatures due to a sea breeze. 

Saturday-Sunday
Currently, next weekend also looks great, but as our sprawling high continues shifting east, we will need to watch for some showers as a cold front approaches late weekend. For now, however, it looks like a fantastic spring weekend is on tap with temperatures coming back down to the 70s. With this big warm up, we are likely to see significant gains in leaf out for some species of trees in the next week.

Hello spring!

The Dailies
Monday: Sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 60s inland. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s at the shore. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the mid to upper 70s inland. Highs in the 60s at the shore. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the mid to upper 70s inland. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s at the shore. Could be a few degrees cooler depending on sea breeze.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s inland. Highs in the mid to upper 70s at the shore. Could be a few degrees cooler depending on sea breeze.

Friday: Mostly sunny and very warm. Highs in mid to upper 80s inland. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s at the shore. Could be a few degrees cooler depending on sea breeze. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of showers late 20%. 

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 

​-DB