Currently: A weak cold front has passed through the area.  A stronger cold front approaches overnight.

Tonight: Although a stronger cold front will be approaching, moisture with this front is very limited, so no precipitation is expected with this front.  Any sprinkles with this front should remain south of the state.  As for temperatures, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than previous nights, with low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s in the coldest spots to the low 60s along the south coast.

Tomorrow: A mix of sun and some passing afternoon clouds.  A nice day, as temperatures and dew points will be lower, but it will still be warm.  Expect high temperatures to range from 75 to 80 degrees, with the coolest readings along the south coast, where a sea breeze will set up.

Tomorrow Night and Thursday: Expect a continued trend to cooler temperatures and no precipitation.  Lows tomorrow night will generally range 55 to 60 degrees, with the possibility for low temperatures to be a couple degrees warmer than forecast if there are more clouds than I currently expect.  Although no precipitation is expected on Thursday, clouds will increase throughout the day, and this, combined with a deeper marine layer, should keep high temperatures only in the 70 to 75 degree range.

Long Term: As we head into the long term, the next potential system to affect the area is on Friday.  A slow-moving cold front will approach the region.  Most of the day on Friday will probably turn out dry, but a band of showers and thunderstorms should affect the state later in the day, from rush hour onward, until around 10 PM or so.  These thunderstorms will have a tendency to weaken as they head east, so the best chances for thunderstorms will be in the western half of the state, basically west of I 91.  High temperatures on Friday should be very similar to those of Thursday- in the 70 to 75 degree range.

Timing the various systems for the weekend is going to be difficult, but for now, it appears that Saturday should be a gap in between systems.  If it materializes this way, then Saturday would likely be warmer and drier than previously forecast, with downsloping winds helping to pump up the temperatures.  Therefore, I am now expecting Saturday's high temperatures to be close to 80 degrees statewide, with very similar temperatures throughout the state.

On Sunday, the cold front will buckle offshore and stall.  These setups tend to favor a wave of low pressure setting up along them.  Since the front will be east of the area, we'd also be in the cold sector.  This is a setup that favors a raw, rainy day.  With this package, I am introducing the scenario of a rather rainy day.  For now, I'll forecast high temperatures in the 70 to 75 degree range.  However, if the all-day rain scenario pans out, these temperatures could be lowered by 5 to 7 degrees.

Looking further ahead into early next week, unsettled weather looks to linger at least a couple more days.  The offshore front may continue buckling west and combine with a low to our south and push a warm front through the state on Monday.  This would favor rain much of the time on Monday.  Temperatures would be very tricky Monday, since warm fronts can tend to encounter resistance when moving north in this setup.  However, it is June.  This is important, because there won't be a winter-type high pressure system to the north pushing against the front.  Ocean and sound temperatures have warmed significantly because of the latest warm spell.  These factors would favor the warm front making it through.  So for now, I'll make my forecast predicated on the warm front making it through.  However, temperatures may need to be adjusted downward in latest forecast cycles if it becomes evident that the front will not make it through.  So, putting this all together, Monday's high temperatures should be in the mid to upper 70s.  With the warmer air moving in, there will also be a chance for thunderstorms to accompany the showers.  In fact, if the warm front makes good progress, the southwestern half of the state may even see some sun late in the day Monday.

For Tuesday, the first half of the day may see some sunshine, then there will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms firing up later in the day, as another cold front approaches from the west.  Temperatures on Tuesday would be largely dependent on the timing of this feature, which is hard to predict from this far out, but with models being fairly quick with the frontal passage at this time, I'll go with the cooler side of temperatures, with highs only getting to 70 or  few degrees warmer.

The long range looks to generally continue the pattern of at or below normal temperatures and frequent precipitation chances.  This is not to say that there can't be a warm or even hot day thrown in there, since it is June, but with a fast pattern and frequent frontal passages, and a seemingly unseasonable amount of cool air available to the north, that would favor an overall pattern of frequent episodes of showers and thunderstorms, and not much chance for the atmosphere to get very warm between frontal passages.

Now, let's take a look at some of the weather that will be affecting our state in graphical format.  For now, since the only real "significant" event that could affect the state is modeled for the Sunday to Monday time frame, I'll just show you the GFS valid that time frame.

​

On this map, valid around midnight Monday night,  we can see a low pressure center over the thumb of Michigan, with bagginess extending off the coast of New Jersey, indicating another low pressure system there.  Based on wind barbs, the warm front extends from about the low pressure center in Michigan, to near Atlantic City, New Jersey, at that time.

That's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!

​-GP!

Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather!​

This is a short post to update the forecast for the rest of the holiday weekend. 

Quick Forecast
Today: Partly sunny and hot inland. Slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s at the shore. Chance of rain 30%.

Memorial Day: Rain, heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 100%.

Technical Discussion

Visible satellite loop of the thunderstorms yesterday afternoon. Although some spots saw rain yesterday, most places roasted. 

Although we didn’t hit 90 on Friday to officially make this a heat wave, it has been HOT. Yesterday, Hartford hit 95 degrees. This is by far the warmest weather that we’ve seen since at least last year, and we have one more day of heat to contend with. 

It is already a warm start to the day in Connecticut, with many spots already in the low to mid 70s!

A current sampling of personal weather stations across New England. 

The map above is also helpful for another reason—it shows where the backdoor cold front is. Remember that on Thursday, I said that Sunday would be a tough forecast due to the uncertain location of the backdoor cold front. This morning, I think the front just misses CT, meaning that inland areas will see a carbon copy of yesterday, with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. ​

As for rain chances, I think we see isolated chances for storms, just like yesterday. Our short range guidance targets northern CT as the place most likely to see a pop up storm, but everyone should be generally prepared for a boomer, just as you would be during the middle of summer. It should be noted that with slightly better ingredients today, storms that pop up can be strong to severe. Western Mass is the favored location for storms. 

HRRR showing the potential for storms around 1-3pm this afternoon, but anything that happens should be isolated. 

Memorial Day
If you have outdoor plans in Connecticut on Monday, you may want to change them. Over the course of the weekend, the guidance has continued to show a very wet Monday. 
​
The tradeoff is that temperatures will be kept at bay in the upper 70s, but the tropical moisture from Tropical Depression Bonnie and the shortwave to our west will make tomorrow a washout.

This high resolution NAM projection brings rain into the area around midnight tonight, with the heaviest falling during the daylight hours. 

I should note that the radar depiction should be taken with a grain of salt. Where the heaviest rain sets up is still in doubt, and if we see the heaviest precip, there could be localized flooding. 

Travelers should be cautious on the roads. 

Thanks for reading!
​
-DB

Boy, has it been busy. How ‘bout those temps! For the second day in a row, a number of interior Connecticut locations made it to 90 degrees and above. If we hit 90 again tomorrow, this will be the first heat wave of the season, just in time for Memorial Day Weekend and the unofficial start of summer to many. 

More heat and humidity is coming to Connecticut. With it, will come the chance for pop up showers and thunderstorms, and we have the extra complication of a backdoor cold front setting itself up in the area. ​

If that wasn’t enough, we have to watch Memorial Day, as a potential shortwave taps into tropical moisture loosely associated with the critter in the Atlantic. Will Memorial Day be wet? Let’s dive into the all important holiday weekend forecast. 

Friday
Will we or won’t we? Tomorrow is expected to be another hot day away from the shoreline, where folks will be (mostly) protected from a sea breeze, but will inland areas hit 90 and make this the first heat wave of the year? I think so. 

Tomorrow begins with cloudy conditions and the potential for a shower or two. Clearing is expected however, and cloud cover will be critical in determining whether we hit 90. It will be close, but I think the guidance, which has been off a tad on maximum temperatures recently, will be off again. Overall, tomorrow is a fine, albeit more humid, day. 

​Saturday
Regardless of what happens on Friday, Saturday is a blowtorch. This is the peak of the heat, as the impressive mid level ridge that has brought this heat flexes its muscle. 850mb temperatures should easily support temperatures between 90-95 in the interior, and with southwesterly flow, humidity will be noticeable. I expect the heat index—which is a measure of how the temperature and humidity feels to a person, will push the mid 90s at times on Saturday. It is a good day for the beach.

GFS around midday Saturday showing the mid level ridge flexing its muscle. Low to mid 90s is better than cold and wet, right?

GFS at 850mb showing very warm temperatures aloft and SW flow. 

As for shower chances, I think they are relatively low. Treat Saturday like a typical deep summer day—anything that happens will be isolated, and storms could be strong, especially in western Connecticut, but most spots will be dry. 

Sunday 
Sunday is a tough day to forecast. It’s tough, because we have a backdoor cold front that may make an appearance in our backyard. If you are traveling, the further east you are, the more likely you will be on the “cooler” side of the front. With the front in the area, there is an increased chance of showers during the day.

Timing and location will be key. Right now, the GFS has been showing a more pronounced push of the front, while the Euro has not. I’m rolling with the euro here, as I think the front will be much slower to proceed toward our area. Sunday should be mostly dry, especially the further southwest you are in the state, and I think we push 90 again in urban inland areas, with noticeable but slightly reduced humidity compared to Saturday.  
​
Memorial Day
Monday is an even tougher day to predict right now, and here is where we turn to the tropics…
Currently, there is an area of low pressure north of the Bahamas that is slowly organizing. The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring an Invest 91L (essentially an area of interest) for signs of development. The computer guidance has been very good in identifying this area as a potential trouble spot for a while now, and as conditions gradually improve for development, this low is expected to organize enough to become a tropical or subtropical depression, with the NHC giving it an 80% chance of development in the next 48 hours.

The Thursday night visible satellite image of 91L. Being named an "invest" is important as it is the point in which the NHC dedicates resources to directly tracking an area of interest. This includes recon flights, dedicating satellites, and dedicating model resources. This will have a significant impact on future analysis and forecasting of this system. 

Whether this system is classified as a named system due to wind is more or less immaterial to our interests, as this is expected to remain relatively weak and there is no current guidance suggesting that this system will directly impact New England (though this is something we will continue to watch).

What matters to us, is the potential of a mid level shortwave making an approach as tropical moisture from the broader flow of this potential tropical system allows moisture to invade the region. Essentially, this would allow for heavy rain and thunderstorms to materialize on Monday.

This is far from certain, as these types of events are notoriously difficult to predict, and we do not even have an organized system in the Atlantic yet. Either way, I think we will have an increased chance of showers and more clouds, resulting in a cooler day. How much cloud cover and rain will have a strong impact on temperatures. Stay tuned, but at this time I see no need to cancel plans.

Tuesday-Thursday
The heat and humidity diminishes as a cold front is anticipated to move through the region Tuesday. I must caution however, that things could change significantly depending on the track of the current tropical disturbance. 

Right now, it looks like the cold front clears things out, and high pressure builds into the area, resulting in clouds and sun for the period and more comfortable temperatures. 

The dailies:
Friday: Cloudy with a slight chance of showers early, otherwise partly cloudy and hot away from the shore. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Highs in the mid 80s at the shore. Chance of showers 30%. 

Saturday: Hazy, Hot, and Humid. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in western CT. Highs in the low to mid 90s inland with heat indices in the mid 90s. Highs in the mid to upper 80s at the shore. Chance of rain 30%. 

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Highs in the upper 80s to 90 inland. Highs in the mid 80s at the shore. Chance of showers 40%. 

Monday: Cloudy with a chance of rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and seasonably warm. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and seasonably warm. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Final notes—we at SCW hope you all have a safe and happy holiday weekend. Thank you to all of those who have served our nation, and thank you to the family of those that we honor on this Memorial Day Weekend. 

If you are traveling out of state and further south to any beaches, watch for the rip currents as this potential tropical system will have impact on waves far from wherever it makes its closest approach. Be sure to keep the kids close at the beach, identify the closest lifeguard wherever you are, and if thunder roars head indoors!

SA will be out of town on Sunday and will have an update Monday, but I am here and will be on call all weekend as I track the little critter in the Atlantic. I will provide updates on the Monday rain potential if needed.

Please like, share, ask questions and encourage others to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @SouthernCTWX. Enjoy your weekend!
​
-DB

Currently: A cutoff coastal low is producing scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the state.  This cutoff low pulls away tonight, and precipitation diminishes.

Tonight: As the coastal low pulls away and with the loss of daytime heating, showers and thunderstorms will dissipate quickly after sunset.  One more coolish night is in store for much of the state before the weather turns much warmer.  Lows tonight should be in the 50s.

Tomorrow... sunny and much warmer.  It will feel like late May or June.  High temperatures should be in the 80-85 degree range.

Tomorrow night into Thursday: A continuation of a similar pattern.  However, the winds will be lighter on Thursday, which could promote sea breeze development along the immediate south coast.  At the moment, models are not in good agreement regarding this, so temperatures would be highly dependent on that along the Sound.  A fair compromise at this point would be to go just a couple degrees cooler than Wednesday for those areas, with similar temperatures elsewhere.  Low temperatures tomorrow night should be within a few degrees of 60, with highs on Thursday again in the 80-85 degree range, but with the potential to be a few degrees cooler right along the Sound.  A back door cold front will approach late in the day Thursday.  At this time, deep layer moisture appears to be lacking, so the chance for thunderstorms with the front appears to be very low at best, but this could change.

Longer Term: On Friday, a backdoor cold front will be south of the state, bringing cooler air with it.   With more clouds than sun, but no rain expected, lows should be again a few degrees of 60, with high temperatures in the 70s.

On Saturday, the backdoor cold front will return north as a warm front.  Right now, it looks like the timing of this feature will be too late to cause a significant change in temperatures during the day, but rather produce a more muggy night.  This time around, there will be more moisture and instability present, so there is a pretty good chance of showers and thunderstorms, beginning Saturday evening and lasting until Sunday morning.  High temperatures on Saturday should be a couple degrees warmer than those of Friday- in the upper 70s.

On Sunday, any lingering showers and thunderstorms clear out in the morning.  This backdoor front probably drapes itself somewhere across Long Island.  This will leave Connecticut in the cooler sector.  Although most of the day Sunday will be rain-free, it will be generally cloudy, and high temperatures should only be in the low 70s.

For Memorial Day, a strong onshore flow will persist throughout the day, keeping most areas in the upper 60s.  A few interior places could touch 70, though, away from the water.  There are some hints of the next system bringing rain to the state, but it looks like that will wait until very late at night at the earliest, so at least we can keep precipitation out of the forecast.

Finally, for Tuesday, the next system will approach the area and could even spawn a coastal low.  This will keep most of the day gray and rainy, if it occurs, with high temperatures in the 70-75 degree range.

The long range pattern in a word looks stormy.  Various frontal systems will be very close to the state through much of this period, keeping the area in the crosshairs for showers and thunderstorms.  There could be a couple warm days, like what we're going to see tomorrow and Thursday, but there don't look to be a any long-lived periods of hot weather any time soon.

Now, here is a graphical look at some of the features in the upcoming pattern.  First, let's look at the GFS' forecasted high temperatures for tomorrow.

​

This map is valid at 1 PM tomorrow, so there will be a few more hours of heating to go.  The entire state is above 80 degrees, with the exception of the immediate Long Island Sound.  Even they could briefly touch 80.

Finally, let's look at a graphical presentation of high temperatures for Memorial Day.  You can see Connecticut is clearly on the cold side of the boundary, with the hot temperatures restricted to the Southeastern states.

That's all for now... have a great rest of your week!

-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: rain is possible this weekend. The up and down pattern that has allowed us to see periods of wonderful weather and periods of meh continues into this weekend, with a coastal storm taking shape.

We’re ten days away from Memorial Day, the unofficial start to summer, and just a few additional days away from the start of meteorological summer on June 1. Summer lovers, take heart! I might have some good news for you at the end of the forecast…

Saturday
Tomorrow our coastal low takes shape and begins its crawl up the coast. Fortunately for us, the models have really backed off of a significant rain event across the state. This is still a close call to me, so I think everyone should expect showers and periods of heavier rain all weekend. For Saturday, the morning hours look fine, but we could be dealing with showers by early afternoon. 
At this time, I think most events will be ok. The shoreline is the place most likely to see consistent rain, and that is far from a lock.

GFS simulation of the coastal storm on Saturday. Note that little precipitation makes it into the state.

Contrast that with the high resolution NAM, which has a closer track and more significant precipitation. I’m not totally buying this model or run for this event, but it illustrates the uncertainty that still exists for the weekend. Umbrellas will be good thing to keep on hand. 

Sunday
Overnight Saturday and early Sunday will see rain, cooler temperatures, and breezy conditions. Much of Sunday morning after sunrise and the afternoon will be dry as the storm departs, but a deep trough bringing cooler temps and the chance of showers will be around to make it feel more like a dreary mid-Spring day. Again, the closer to the coast you are, the more likely you are to see rain. 

Monday/Tuesday 
Monday and Tuesday are nearly identical. In the wake of the departing coastal, another area of low pressure is expected to form, bringing the chance of showers. Temperatures slowly recover, but the slow recovery is worth it as we move into a warmer regime. 
GFS showing another cutoff low slowly meander up the coast. The track of this little bugger has been all over the place, but the slight chance of showers and cloudy conditions are remain regardless of the track. 

​Wednesday-Friday
There is strong agreement that Wednesday is the first day of a fast break toward summer. The pattern that allowed repeated shots of cooler than normal weather begins a (temporary?) fade, and in its place come a regime southwest flow as a result of a building ridge. The result? Summer like conditions by the end of the week! Rain may be on the table by Friday, but I’m not biting yet.

In a special sneak peak of Memorial Day weekend take a look at the Euro Ensembles of 500mb heights (top) and the GFS Ensembles (bottom) showing warmer than normal temperatures. Summer time temps inbound for the unofficial start of summer? Like Greg, I am wary of these long range phantom warm ups, but I think that the one from Wednesday through Friday at least is the real deal. 

The dailies:
Saturday: Chance of rain showers during the afternoon, with a steadier rain possible overnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s inland. Chance of rain 60%.

Sunday: Chance of rain before 10am, with off and on showers possible through the remainder of the day. Otherwise, fog early, mostly cloudy, breezy and seasonably cool. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 50% early and 30% in the afternoon.  

Monday: Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Tuesday: Chance of rain showers in the morning. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 40%.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

​Friday: Partly cloudy and warm. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Thank you for reading!​

-DB