Disc: The aforementioned unsettled weather pattern is going to keep going.  Baroclinic (frontal) zones in one way or another will be very close to the region for much of the forecast period.  When frontal zones are that close to the area, they tend to produce storminess, and this upcoming period will be no exception to the rule.

Currently: Litchfield County remains in a svr tstorm watch.  Convective parameters are more unstable up there, so any thunderstorms in the NW Hills could be strong to severe.  Otherwise, the cold front responsible for producing these thunderstorms is still way out near Sandusky, Ohio, so storm chances will be ongoing tonight.

Tonight: A slow moving cold front approaches.  Over the far Western portions of the area, thunderstorms should probably wind down by around 9PM.  However, it may take another 12 hours for scattered storms to wind down in far Eastern CT.  All this having been said, overall coverage will diminish once one gets East of I 91 and hits a more stable marine air mass.  As far as temperatures, expect lows to be within a few degrees of 55.

Tomorrow: A really nice day, and with Saturday looking a little better (we'll get to that later), these two days may be the only two totally rain free days of the forecast period, with Thursday the more sure thing, at least west of I 91.  East of I 91, a few morning showers clear out, then it turns fairly nice.  Temperatures will be pretty uniform- no sea breezes with a westerly breeze- in the mid to upper 70s.

Tomorrow Night/Friday: More uncertainty as we head into Friday.  First tomorrow night should be fair, with as good radiational cooling conditions as one could ever expect for early June.  Then, on Friday, most models had been dry, now models are ejecting a strong upper level low into New England (the GFS is actually showing snow and sleet mixing with rain in Montreal).  What this now means for us is that numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon and night.  With upper level temperatures crashing and the freezing level falling to only 8,000 feet, any heavier showers could produce small hail.  If they do, temperatures would drop rapidly under hail cores.  This all also means that Friday should turn out to be a good 5-8 degrees cooler than what we were originally expecting, with highs only around 70.

Long Term: The weekend and beyond: We might be able to salvage a nice day Saturday, as most guidance is now showing the area to be between systems.  With full sunshine, I've gone a few degrees warmer than guidance, with highs expected to be 70-75.  It should also be noted that a few areas in the NW Hills and sheltered valleys along the CT River could reach the 30s Friday night/Saturday AM!

Now for Sunday... in actuality, 2/3 or so of the day could be OK, as showers and thunderstorms ahead of the next system may not make it into the area until mid afternoon and beyond.  The thinking is showers and storms start from 4 to 8 across the state from west to east.  There's also a pretty good chance of thunderstorms, once again mostly west of I 91.  Guidance temperatures pretty much accepted- low 70s.  

Beyond Sunday, the confidence in overall weather each day generally decreases.  Trying to time each system as it approaches the area is an exercise in futility, as there will be multiple waves progressing along a stalled frontal system.  All that is accurate to say is, after perhaps a brief break Monday morning, expect periods of rain and thunderstorms until at least Thursday morning.  Temperatures will also be tough to predict as small movements of the frontal boundary could make for some tricky forecasts.  I will only say two things regarding temperatures.  First of all, the latest GFS tries to blast a warm front through the area on Monday, with temperatures soaring into the 80s across most of the state.  While that is a possibility, I'm not ready to bite on that yet, given the hesitancy for warm fronts to push north this season.  My second temperature note... if some of the guidance is correct in having a coastal low in place with near record (for the time of year) strength high pressure to the north in Canada, and a banana like high building into the High Plains, we may see the coldest maximum temperatures ever recorded in June sometime in the middle of next week... stay tuned!

Long Range: Really no big changes in the long range.  A general ridge in the west, trough in the east pattern will remain in place, which means generally below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.  That does not mean that it will rain every day, nor does it mean that every day will feature below normal temperatures, but the majority of the time will be cooler than normal, and it will probably rain (at least a little) on more days than not.

Model note (to other forecasters): PLEASE do not use the GFS for QPF forecasting.  I know it is never a notoriously good model in this field, but it has been just abysmal regarding QPF lately and often doesn't even have a clue until the precipitation is literally going to start in less than an hour.  So whatever methods you use to forecast, stay away from the GFS' QPF algorithm.

Anyway, let's take a look at some of the systems to affect our region.  With so much going on, I don't really know where to start, but from a timing perspective, we'll first look at the system slated to affect the region on Friday. 

Take a look at the cold pool north of New Hampshire.  It would not surprise me if the White Mountains reported something other than rain in their hourly obs with that setup.  This is a good setup for small hail over the area, as the freezing level is quite low.  Note the whole state is getting some precip, with the heaviest concentration south of Interstate 84.

Finally, let's take a look at late Sunday, which could be the beginning of a long-duration rainy period.  Check out how precipitation is just beginning to move into the SW 1/2 of the state and check out how much of the country is raining.  Now if I tell you that this is slow-moving, you'll know why it's going to take a long time to get out of here!

Anyway, that's all for now! Have a good rest of your week!

-GP!

Disc: It isn't going to be raining every second of every day or anything like that, but the pattern is very favorable to feature rain at some point almost every day.  The difficult part of this forecast will be timing each impulse and trying to pinpoint where the heaviest rains will be.  Many times this does not get resolved until the storm is "in situ".

Currently: Current surface analysis shows a complex frontal system and a low pressure center near Louisville, KY.  High pressure was stretched in an arc from James Bay, Canada, to the Gulf Of Maine.  This high pressure is important in our weather picture, as well, because it will help keep the area in the cold sector tomorrow, which means a chilly rain, and less chance of thunderstorms.

Tonight: Most of tonight will be dry, with lowering & thickening clouds and increasing onshore flow.  Rain should get going by dawn in most places, especially the SW.  Lows should be in the mid 50s.

Tomorrow: Gloomy.  Steady rain in the morning, then a break during the afternoon.  However, models often underestimate low level moisture, so even after the steady rain stops, there could be light rain & drizzle.  It will stay rather chilly all day, with high temperatures only 55-60.  There could also be wind gusts in the 35-40 MPH range during the afternoon.  Because of prolonged onshore flow, minor to locally moderate coastal flooding will be possible during the high tide cycles.  

Tomorrow Night and Friday: As the low rotates closer to the area, there should be another period of steadier, heavier rain, especially East of I 91.  This should be predominately during the overnight hours.  So a rainy night on the way, with low temperatures 50 to 60.  Temperatures will probably only drop a couple of degrees from Thursday's highs.  On Friday, we may really need to divide the state into two parts, with the dividing line being around I 91.  East of I 91, morning heavy rain will clear out and yield periods of sun.  West of I 91, there will be a clear window during the late morning hours, then there could be more showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.  High temperatures on Friday should generally make the upper 60s, except cooler in the NW hills.

Long Term: Memorial Day weekend and Beyond: For Saturday, a previously dry forecast may need editing.  A new upper level piece of energy has shown up on guidance and models are now generating at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms along it during the afternoon hours, again only to the West of I 91.  East of I 91 should have a nice day.  But this feature is very real and does need to be watched.  Soundings due show fairly steep lapse rates on Saturday, so systems like this do tend to overperform, if anything.  Saturday's high temperatures should range from 70-75.

On Sunday, the first half of the day should be fair.  Thereafter, a frontal system should produce severe weather over Pennsylvania and Ohio.  By the time it arrives in Connecticut late in the day, there won't be much left of it from a severe weather standpoint.  However, as systems like this move into a more stable, but moist, atmosphere, they tend to coalesce into a blob of heavy rain.  So Sunday afternoon, then night, should feature an area of heavy rain, possibly still containing a little imbedded thunder, traversing the state from west to east.  With more clouds, Sunday's temperatures should be cooler than those of Saturday, with highs of 65-70.

For Memorial Day, a stronger cold front, combined with better timing and a warmer air mass, will kick off a round of showers and thunderstorms.  Although we're getting into garbage time with regards to convective forecasts, I'll take a stab at it, and say that there could be a line of strong to severe thunderstorms west of the CT River/ I91, degenerating to "garden variety" showers and thunderstorms east of that line.  These storms should move through during the afternoon and evening hours.  Highs on Monday should be in the low 70s, and this little bit of extra warmth should be enough to give the thunderstorms a little extra punch.

On Tuesday, we may actually be able to sneak in a dry day.  Temperatures will actually be warmer behind Monday's cold front, but with lower levels of humidity, and temps should get into the mid to upper 70s.  For Wednesday, yet another impulse moving down will trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours.  With increased cloudiness, Wednesday's temperatures should be a bit cooler than Tuesday's- in the 70-75 degree range.

Looking into the longer range, the pattern still looks generally unsettled, with more frontal boundaries nearby than is normal for this time of year.  However, there may actually be a trend toward a more normal mode of Rossby wave spacing, which would mean that at least the fronts would be about 60 hours apart.  One thing having an anomalously large number of fronts in this area does mean this time of year is that you really can't get a sustained heat wave, because the main two ingredients for that are a large, nearly stationary Bermuda high and not many frontal systems, and we have neither right now.  That's not to say it can't get hot for a day or two, and it can, but the heat would likely get kicked out quickly.

Now, let's take a look at some of the systems that will be affecting the area this week... since we have so many of them, I'll take a look from a spatial and temporal perspective, and we'll highlight tomorrow and Sunday's rains.

​

You can see on this map, with the low pressure center over Trenton, NJ, most of the day has already rained and there is a moisture plume coming straight out of the Atlantic and headed toward SE CT.

This map, valid Sunday night at midnight is actually very interesting.  You can see not only is there the convective blob shifting through western Connecticut, there's also a little mesolow developing near Atlantic City, New Jersey.  If this low pressure system were to develop a little earlier and become a little stronger, it could set up a very chilly, rainy, and dreary Memorial Day! Some earlier model runs had this, and sometimes models do show one solution, back off of it, and bring it back later on, so this is something to be watched.  If that happens, everything after Sunday in this forecast could need serious editing.  Anyway, that's enough for now.  Enjoy the rest of  your week!

-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

​   Hope you all got outside to enjoy the beautiful weather bestowed on to Connecticut by the weather gods.  After a taste of summer late last week, where many places experienced a true heatwave (3 days in a row of 90 degree temps), a cold front came through and displaced the unseasonably warm airmass leaving pure "chamber of commerce" conditions in its wake. Saturday took a little while to break the clouds and murkiness, to, overall, recover nicely with sunshine and seasonable conditions in the afternoon.  Sunday, though, was the true winner, with fair and seasonably warm conditions throughout the day. Tonight, temps drop back into the upper 40s and 50s while staying mostly clear early, clouds will be on the increase late in advance of, yet again, more showery, cool weather.

​   Your Monday starts off dry, but clouds should be prevalent by rush hour with showers moving in toward mid morning, around 10 am.  Showers will be scattered throughout the state, limiting the sunshine, and therefore keep temperatures down. I do not expect the thermometer to move much higher than the upper 50s and lower 60s statewide. Although, in some areas there could be a brief peek of sun, those would be the areas that have a shot at the mid 60s. Rain looks to move away from the area Monday evening, but there is still a chance for a stray shower on Tuesday morning. High temperatures on Tuesday, do look to rebound slightly, back into the mid and upper 60s, under partly cloudy skies, with nighttime temps falling back into the upper 40s and 50s.

​   Looking ahead to the middle and end of the work week, we will have a nice 1 day temperature spike on Wednesday, with highs jumping well into the 70s to around 80 and mostly clear skies. Enjoy this day though, as Thursday through early Saturday do not look to be nice. Wednesday looks to be so warm due to the fact that we will be on the warm side of a low pressure system which looks to influence our weather late next week. Southwest winds while being on the fair weather, east side of a low pressure system tracking in from the midwest will promote warming, these ingredients will make for a nice and warm spring day. Clouds, again, will move in later on Wednesday night in advance of this system, and back into the gloomy, rainy, and cool we go....

   ​It looks as though showers, and possibly thunderstorms, move in yet again Thursday morning, and if it isn't raining, conditions will still be cloudy and cool on northeast winds promoting these conditions. High temperatures on Thursday are not expected to budge much above the mid to upper 50s, possibly touching the low 60s in some areas. I'd like to tell you this ends Thursday night, but this looks to be a pesky low pressure area that will "hangout" in New England for the day on Friday as well. More gloomy,  showery, cool conditions are expected. High temps again will be in the mid to upper 50s. It does look as though the bulk of the rain will move out by Saturday morning setting the stage for at least one decent weekend day, temps look to rebound back into the 70s with mostly sunny skies. Yet again, though, it looks like rain will not be too far from our doorsteps. More showers look to move in for the day on Sunday, with temps in the mid 60s. Now I know many of you would like to know the weather for Memorial Day, and whether your parade or picnic will be a washout or success, my early call would be mid 60s with a chance of showers but overall not a rainout, again, this is 8 days away so much can change.

​Looking even further ahead, Memorial Day and beyond,  I'd like to tell you that we will have an extended period of tranquil, sunny weather (more than 1 or 2 days), but I really can't. It looks as though we will be stuck in a pattern of cutoff lows, bringing cool and gloomy conditions, with a warm and sunny day or 2 sprinkled in between. It's a pattern more akin to early April than late May/early June. This pattern actually looks to persist for the better part of the next 2 weeks, followed by a nice warm-up most likely. Basically going from April to mid July, in the snap of a finger.

Now, the extended forecast:

Tonight:  Mostly clear skies with clouds moving in late, temps upper 40s to low 50s

Monday: Mostly cloudy skies early becoming cloudy, showers likely throughout the day, temps upper 50s to around 60. Showers early, tapering off with partial clearing late, temps upper 40s to low 50s

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy early becoming mostly sunny, high temps 65-70. Partly cloudy at night with temps in the low 50s

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warm, temps mid 70s to low 80s, chance of a storm late.  Increasing clouds at night, with a chance of showers toward morning, temps low to mid 50s.

Thursday: Cloudy skies and showers, temps mid 50s to low 60s. Showery conditions persist through the evening with low temps in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Friday: Clouds and showers, temps mid 50s to around 60.  Showers gradually move out of the area during the evening,  temps at night in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Saturday: Lingering clouds early, becoming pleasant and warm, highs in the 70s. Fair conditions expected through the evening with clouds moving in late, temps 50-55

Sunday: Clouds and showers, highs 60-65, lows 50-55

*Memorial Day: Clouds and sun, scattered showers, highs mid 60s
 
As always, thank you for reading and continuing to make Southern Connecticut Weather your trusted source for all things Connecticut weather. Have a great evening and start to the work week!- TW

Good evening to you from SCW!
​
Near-Term
Right now, we’ve got a line of thunderstorms out ahead of the approaching cold front that is currently hung up over central NY and moving east southeast. There are severe thunderstorms associated with this line, but models and observations suggest that any severe weather will remain to our north. Nonetheless, expect a line of thunderstorms to move through the state later tonight, bringing a quick dose of rain and perhaps a strong wind gust or two. Timing looks like around 10 PM for western areas of the state, lasting until past midnight in the eastern areas.


Here's a look at the current radar.

Mid Range
​
Behind the initial front, we will still see warm air linger for a bit longer; while tomorrow will not be as warm as the past two days have been, we will still see highs up into the low 80s. A second, stronger front will pass through during the day tomorrow, finally bringing in more seasonable air and returning us to near normal temperatures. I don’t expect any significant storms with this front; a shower or two and possibly a rumble of thunder are likely, but no more than that.
Saturday will be the pick of the weekend as high pressure to our north keeps fair skies and dry weather in the forecast; highs will be right around 70 across the state, with the cooler readings found on the shoreline and the warmer readings found inland. For Sunday, we will see slightly cooler temps, mainly in the mid 60s, and clouds will start to build ahead of our next system for early next week.

Long Range
Generally cool and unsettled weather looks to return to close out the month of May, starting with a system for early next week. Guidance drapes a cold front across the region during the day on Monday, with rain likely as a result. Generally good agreement on this system, with half an inch to an inch of rain expected for most areas, mainly during the daytime.
We’ll get a break on Tuesday as high pressure briefly moves in ahead of the next shortwave that moves north into the lakes for midweek. This time, guidance hints at potential coastal redevelopment, which is shown well in this image from the GFS. 

You can see the dying primary in Canada, and at the same time, the developing secondary over Long Island. Should this occur, we could have another slow moving system on our hands which would bring more heavy rain to the area. At this lead time, we’ll just mention a chance of rain for now. Looking at your holiday weekend, while it’s too early to talk details, ensemble guidance has been persistent in a trough over the east in that period, which would generally suggest below normal temperatures and an active pattern. However, keep in mind that we’re still over a week out, so don’t go cancelling your beach plans quite yet . We’ll keep you updated on your holiday weekend forecast as we know more!

The Dailies
Friday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Monday: Rain likely, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Thursday: A chance of rain, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
 
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
Happy Mother’s Day! All things considered, today was a solid day. Saturday was messy and cold, as a nor’easter made its way north, but we saw a mix of clouds and sun today with rain for some. For those of you longing for a string of warm and nice days, I have the forecast for you!
 
Monday
Monday is probably the worst day of the workweek. That said, I don’t expect a washout. The pesky area of low pressure that dominated our weekend will still be a player in our weather, with it spinning in the Gulf of Maine. That means that showers remain likely for much of Connecticut tomorrow. We should see a drying trend over the course of the day however, and I expect tomorrow to be as warm, if not a touch warmer, than today.
 
One thing to keep in mind—tomorrow will be breezy. The pressure gradient will be at play, making tomorrow a bit cooler than it might otherwise feel. 

​GFS showing the potential for showers tomorrow afternoon.
 
Tuesday-Thursday
Here comes the good part! After the storm departs for good, we see ridging taking hold. That means that mostly clear and warm conditions will dominate midweek. It feels like forever since we strung together a few good warm days, so get out there and enjoy it!
 
The warming trend really begins in earnest on Tuesday. Wednesday we see temperatures inland shoot into the 80s but by Thursday, we’re at the peak of the warm streak. Temperatures on Thursday could approach the low 90s in our typical warm spots. Who is up for a taste of summer!
 
Wednesday brings the low potential for showers, and Thursday brings the potential for thunderstorms as a cold front approaches. Chances remain low right now however.

EPS depiction of the upper level pattern over the next few days. Note the unusual nor'easter departing Monday being replaced with higher heights and strong ridging. Can you say warm up?

​Friday-Saturday
The first half of the weekend looks nice for a change. There may be a question of timing with regard to the cold front, but I think the pattern will be progressive enough to keep the flow moving and with it, the cold front. I expect Friday to be a nice day. With northwest flow coming in the wake of the front, I expect a cooler and less humid day. This will continue into Saturday. 

Sunday
Next Sunday looks like it could be wet, as an area of low pressure passes through the region. How strong it is, how quickly it moves, and how much precipitation may fall is still to be determined. I’ll introduce chances for it, but it’s not something to be concerned about right now.
 
The Dailies:
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Breezy. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 40%.
 
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
 
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s inland and upper 70s at the shore. Chance of showers 10%.
 
Thursday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Highs in the mid 80s at the shore. Chance of rain 30%.
 
Friday: Sunny and warm. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
 
Saturday: Sunny and warm. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
 
Sunday: Increasing clouds with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the low 70s. Chance of rain 30%.
 
Final Note
This will be my last discussion for a few weeks as I am traveling. I will be participating in a meteorology field studies program for two weeks in the Midwest. In addition to fulfilling a lifelong desire, I am hoping this opportunity will help me become a better severe weather forecaster. Yes, we will be storm chasing. Yes, I’m super excited. No, I do NOT hope it plays out like a Twister sequel.
 
Maybe I’ll be able to post a few pictures or videos! Stay tuned.
 
-DB