I have noticed a few things regarding recent modeling and overall weather trends that have stood out... First, models continue to have problems keying in on shortwaves and deciding which ones will produce rain over our area, and secondly, models continue to generally be too far South and East with everything. We don't particularly notice it as much in the summer, but it is a bias that is still there.
Currently: A warm front stretched from near Buffalo, NY, to near Chesapeake, VA. A squall line has formed along this front over W PA. Although there isn't much of a "damming high" in place, there is enough of a maritime flow that it has kept the warm front at bay for now.
Tonight: It now appears that aside from a rogue sprinkle or some drizzle and fog that could set up along the immediate south coast, that the bulk of the night will be dry, rain wise. It's funny that as recently as a few days ago, models had the remnant low of Alberto 300-500 miles east of where it ultimately tracked, and the area getting heavy rain as a result. Because of the "real" track of the remnants of Alberto, those rains stayed way to our west. As far as tonight's temperatures, they should be very uniform for two reasons 1) onshore flow keeping coastal locations cooler and 2) overcast skies and a lack of radiational cooling. Expect temperatures to range from 60 to 65.
Tomorrow: Expect warmer and more humid air to move in, as the area finally gets warm sectored. I will cautiously run with a dry forecast for tomorrow. I say cautiously because there will be an opportunity for rain early in the day with the warm frontal passage and later in the day as the air mass becomes more conducive to thunderstorms. However, I think forcing is very limited both periods, so rain chances will stay very low, at least during the "day" period. High temperatures should be within a few degrees of 80, warmest in the CT valley, and coolest along the south coast.
Tomorrow Night/ Saturday: A coastal low takes shape along the SE coast and slowly begins moving up the coast. This was a storm that the models had going way out to sea a few days ago, but there really is no reason for this to happen, especially because the area will already be in the warm sector-thus mitigating any chance for high pressure to have a huge influence. Therefore, I expect rain to begin to move into the area beginning later Friday night and continuing off and on throughout the day on Saturday. With the expectation of clouds and rain, I will go cooler than guidance and call for high temperatures to range from 70 to 75 degrees.
Long Term (Sunday and beyond): This period will largely be unsettled. The evolution of a series of coastal lows will ultimately determine the weather.
For now, and I hate trying to time things this far out, because a lot of times it ends up wrong... but as of this writing, we may be able to squeak out a relatively dry (albeit cloudy) day on Sunday, as we'll be in between the first low that probably rides inland and a second low that forms further east and cuts off for a while offshore.
Monday and Tuesday could very well turn out to be very cool and rainy days as a coastal low stalls offshore and a persistent north to northeast flow develops. Beyond that, the weather looks fair Wednesday and beyond, with near to below normal temperatures on Wednesday and above normal temperatures for Friday and Saturday.
My Internet connection is once again beginning to fail... I will ask some cohorts if they could throw some graphics in here, but this is a base discussion for now.
-GP!
