I have noticed a few things regarding recent modeling and overall weather trends that have stood out... First, models continue to have problems keying in on shortwaves and deciding which ones will produce rain over our area, and secondly, models continue to generally be too far South and East with everything. We don't particularly notice it as much in the summer, but it is a bias that is still there.

Currently: A warm front stretched from near Buffalo, NY, to near Chesapeake, VA.  A squall line has formed along this front over W PA.  Although there isn't much of a "damming high" in place, there is enough of a maritime flow that it has kept the warm front at bay for now.

Tonight: It now appears that aside from a rogue sprinkle or some drizzle and fog that could set up along the immediate south coast, that the bulk of the night will be dry, rain wise.  It's funny that as recently as a few days ago, models had the remnant low of Alberto 300-500 miles east of where it ultimately tracked, and the area getting heavy rain as a result.  Because of the "real" track of the remnants of Alberto, those rains stayed way to our west.  As far as tonight's temperatures, they should be very uniform for two reasons 1) onshore flow keeping coastal locations cooler and 2) overcast skies and a lack of radiational cooling.  Expect temperatures to range from 60 to 65.

Tomorrow: Expect warmer and more humid air to move in, as the area finally gets warm sectored.  I will cautiously run with a dry forecast for tomorrow.  I say cautiously because there will be an opportunity for rain early in the day with the warm frontal passage and later in the day as the air mass becomes more conducive to thunderstorms.  However, I think forcing is very limited both periods, so rain chances will stay very low, at least during the "day" period.  High temperatures should be within a few degrees of 80, warmest in the CT valley, and coolest along the south coast.

Tomorrow Night/ Saturday: A coastal low takes shape along the SE coast and slowly begins moving up the coast.  This was a storm that the models had going way out to sea a few days ago, but there really is no reason for this to happen, especially because the area will already be in the warm sector-thus mitigating any chance for high pressure to have a huge influence.  Therefore, I expect rain to begin to move into the area beginning later Friday night and continuing off and on throughout the day on Saturday. With the expectation of clouds and rain, I will go cooler than guidance and call for high temperatures to range from 70 to 75 degrees.  

Long Term (Sunday and beyond): This period will largely be unsettled.  The evolution of a series of coastal lows will ultimately determine the weather.

For now, and I hate trying to time things this far out, because a lot of times it ends up wrong... but as of this writing, we may be able to squeak out a relatively dry (albeit cloudy) day on Sunday, as we'll be in between the first low that probably rides inland and a second low that forms further east and cuts off for a while offshore.

Monday and Tuesday could very well turn out to be very cool and rainy days as a coastal low stalls offshore and a persistent north to northeast flow develops.  Beyond that, the weather looks fair Wednesday and beyond, with near to below normal temperatures on Wednesday and above normal temperatures for Friday and Saturday.

My Internet connection is once again beginning to fail... I will ask some cohorts if they could throw some graphics in here, but this is a base discussion for now.

​-GP!

​Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
For everyone who could get to the beach, way to take advantage of the heat today! As for the rest of us, unfortunately we will have to wait a while until for some more summer heat. Cooler temperatures and rainy times lay ahead for our first week of June.
 
Tonight
A weak cold front to our north slowly will track south through CT by the nighttime. Chance for a passing isolated shower statewide this evening. As temperatures cool behind the front, and an onshore flow prevails, there is a chance for fog to develop along the coastlines which would eventually dissipate by mid-morning Wednesday.
 
Wednesday
The upper level ridge that brought us our sunny weather Tuesday will slowly make its way off the coast, and that will be evident during the day Wednesday. An onshore flow coupled with partly cloudy skies will make for a cooler day, with highs likely in the mid 70s.  By the evening, high level clouds will move in, ahead of a warm front that will be our next weather maker.
 
Thursday - Friday
As warm, moist air overrides cooler air, the lift of the warmer air will cause the formation of clouds and precip. This is exactly what will happen with the warm front that will pass through late Thursday afternoon. Expect showers for the latter half of the day, with temperatures staying fairly cool below the seasonal average, around the 60s.
 
Showers should continue overnight into Friday, and taper off Friday midday. Temperatures will climb higher than they did Thursday, into the upper 70s, but expect a muggy day as models suggest dewpoint temperatures to be high as well. Friday night a cold front is suggested to pass through, and right now the GFS is suggesting convective precip with the front. It is expected to be mostly cloudy once showers taper off Friday afternoon, but if the sun is able to peak itself through the clouds, it could help destabilize the atmosphere and bring thundershowers through the state. As of right now though, under the assumption that the models are correct with cloud cover, we should expect convective rain showers Friday night. 

Saturday-Tuesday
Our cold front moving southeast Saturday will encounter a north-bound warm front, and the cultivation of a stationary front across New Jersey seems inevitable according to model consensus. Stationary fronts are notorious for moving very slow, and unfortunately this stationary front will very slowly track northward. This will mean a chance for showers and cloudy weather all weekend, with temperatures in the upper 60s from Sunday to Tuesday. The front doesn’t look to move out of New England until Tuesday night next week, and will be the major influencer on our weather for the latter half of this forecast.
 
(Here is the GFS showing the cold front moving through the state, then encountering the northbound warm front to form the stationary front. Notice how it takes four days to move out of the area.)

The Dailies:
 
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s.  
 
Thursday: Cloudy. Showers in the evening. Highs in the upper 60s.
 
Friday: Showers tapering off midday. Chance for rain late Friday night. Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s.
 
Saturday: Cloudy. Highs in the 70s.
 
Sunday: Slight chance for showers. Highs in the upper 60s.
 
Monday:  Slight chance for showers. Highs in the upper 60s.  
 
Tuesday: Chance for rain. Highs in the upper 60s.
 
Thank you for reading and enjoy your evening!
 
-LD

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
The mopey weather we have seen today is on its way out, and much nicer times look to follow shortly after! Regarding the holiday weekend, it starts out looking decent, but ends in a bit of a mess. The main players in this mess will be a cold front from Canada and the remnants of a potential tropical system to our south. Models vary in the timing of these two factors, and that is something we will need to watch when forecasting for this weekend. Let’s get started.
 
Wednesday
A weak cold front will pass through early Wednesday morning, bringing scattered rain and showers before sunrise. This could make your commute to work a little wet, but any lingering rain should move out by mid-morning. Clouds will dissipate by noon, and expect mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures in the 70s with a NW flow. A chance for a passing shower exists late Wednesday night into Thursday as a very weak secondary front will pass through, otherwise things look clear.
 
Thursday–Saturday
High pressure looks to settle into the Northeast as we head into our weekend. Upper level ridging and a predominantly westerly flow will bring warm weather across New England. Temperatures in the low 80s seem likely across the state, with sunny skies. On Saturday though, a SW flow will bring in more humid air and a chance for temperatures to climb into the upper 80s.  

Sunday-Monday
Here is where things get interesting. A cold front is expected to pass through the state sometime Sunday. Now the timing of this cold front is important, since the intensity of the precip will depend on it. The GFS has a weak cold front passing through early Sunday, which would bring mostly showers and rain to CT. The Euro and Canadian models take the cold front through the state later in the day, and this combined with weak CAPE values across Southeastern CT could possibly produce a weak thunderstorm or two. Temperatures will be cooler, especially after the passing of the front, in the high 60s and low 70s.
 
Following the passage of the cold front, Sunday night some tropical energy ahead of the system in the Southeast looks to interact with the passing cold front. Decent forcing for ascent and the presence of moisture will create a wet system that will slowly move north overnight. This would indicate wet weather moving in early Monday morning and leaving Monday night. Again, this all depends on the timing of the cold front and the strength of the tropical energy, and with many factors at play it makes for a very complex and unpredictable system. I’m not feeling too confident the intensity of the rain, especially with the messy setup and the model variability. With that said, there will definitely be a chance for precipitation. Temperatures look to be in the upper 60s for the majority of the state. 

Tuesday
Depending on the track our potential tropical system takes, Tuesday could be either a hit or miss. The GFS and Canadian models take the remnants over CT for Tuesday, suggesting steady rain for the entire day. And the European model suggesting the system will miss us completely, with High pressure to the north forcing it under us before anything meaningful reaches the state. With the uncertainty regarding the track of the system, I’ll play this one safe and suggest a chance for rain on Tuesday, with temperatures in the upper 60s.
 
The Dailies 
Wednesday: Showers tapering off early. Cloudy skies becoming mostly sunny by mid afternoon, with highs in the upper 70s.
 
Thursday: Sunny skies. Highs in the upper 70s.
 
Friday: Sunny skies. Highs in the lower 80s.
 
Saturday: Mostly sunny, highs in the upper 80s.
 
Sunday: Chance for showers or thundershowers. Highs in the low 70s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
 
Monday:  Rain. Highs in the upper 60s.
 
Tuesday: Chance for rain. Otherwise cloudy. Highs in the 60s.
  
Thank you for reading and enjoy your evening!
 
-LD

​Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
I hope you got outside and enjoyed the beautiful late-spring weather that we had today! We’ve got a hit or miss week coming up – rain tomorrow and cool temps for Thursday, but Wednesday and Friday should both be pretty solid. The holiday weekend looks mostly dry as of right now, but with a lot of shower activity modeled to be in the area, we still need to keep an eye on the guidance in future runs as it’s very much a possibility that we’ll see those showers shift as we get closer in.
 
Tuesday
 
 A warm front approaches the area tomorrow evening and should carry enough moisture with it to bring some showers to the area tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Not expecting any widespread severe weather, but wouldn’t be surprised to see a garden-variety thunderstorm or two pop up if forcing and moisture coincide. While the chance for showers will be present as early as lunchtime or so, I think greater coverage will be found in the late afternoon into the evening as the front approaches and moisture levels increase. That said, showers should move relatively quickly and so not expecting a washout for any given location. Aside from showers, we should see a mostly cloudy and relatively humid day ahead of the front, with cool temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

​Wednesday-Friday
 
Quiet weather for the back half of your workweek and into the start of the holiday weekend as high pressure moves overhead and ridging develops. Upper 70s on Wednesday and Friday look likely (Friday could be up into the low to mid 80s for some away from shoreline) while Thursday will be limited to near 70 as a slightly cooler air mass moves through. Sunny skies throughout the period.
 
Saturday-Monday
 
Unsettled weather in the region looks likely for the long weekend, but it’s impacts on Connecticut remain unclear. Guidance is split on the scenario for the weekend, with the Euro stalling out a strong cold front over our region bringing showers and thunderstorms while the GFS has a much weaker front but then provides more interaction with tropical moisture to the south. At this lead time, all you can really say with confidence is that there is a chance of some wet weather in the area and that we’ll work out the details over the course of the week; that said, no guidance currently shows a washout for the weekend and it’s likely that there will be at least some sunshine thrown in as well. Best chance of avoiding showers entirely will likely be Saturday as the cold front remains to our north, but will keep relatively low pops for all three days for now until we can get a better look at the scenario for this weekend.
 
Here’s the setup on the GFS – you can see the cold front to our north and the tropical moisture to our south are keeping us out of the rain for Saturday, but those converge and bring showers to the region in later panels.

The Dailies
 
Tuesday: A chance of showers, then showers likely late. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Chance of rain is 70%.
 
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s.
 
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
 
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
 
Saturday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Chance of rain is 30%.
 
Sunday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
 
Monday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
 
Have a great week and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.

After a week that featured a historic severe weather outbreak and a dreary Saturday, we quiet down a bit for the week ahead. There will still be shower chances though. Let's take a look at your Sunday and week ahead. 

Before turning to tomorrow, we have to deal with fog and more showers tonight. A dense fog advisory is in effect for the shoreline, and I think we can see patchy dense fog across the state but especially in southern Connecticut as a warm front approaches overnight. Be careful if you are driving. After a cold day, temperatures will continue to rise tonight and into tomorrow. 

Sunday
Tomorrow looks better than today, but I'm not sold on a nice day. As showers end tonight, we should see low clouds and fog during the morning. There may be a few lingering showers or patches of drizzle. We should see a few breaks of sun in what would otherwise be a partly to mostly cloudy day. During the afternoon hours, we will watch a cold front approach to our west, bringing the chance of showers and thunderstorms, likely between 2-8pm. These should be garden variety storms and nothing like what we saw earlier this week. It will feel like summer with highs in the mid to upper 70s and more humid conditions. 

Monday-Wednesday
The first half of the week looks relatively nice. High pressure builds in on Monday in the wake of the cold front and we should see sunny and seasonable conditions. A few showers are possible during the morning and evening on Tuesday, but much of the day looks decent right now. Wednesday we should return to nicer weather and clear conditions.  

Thursday-Saturday
The latter half of the week looks a touch more uncertain, but at this point, it looks to be quiet. High pressure looks to build, bringing us dry an seasonable conditions, if not a touch below normal. By the weekend we'll be watching the progress of a low that some guidance has developing in the tropics. We're not necessarily looking for direct impacts, but rather if moisture will get drawn into the region by Sunday and Memorial Day. It's not something to worry about at this time. 

The Dailies
Sunday: 

Monday: 

Tuesday: 

Wednesday:  

Thursday: 

Friday: 

Saturday: 

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Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB