Good afternoon from SCW. 

May is drawing to a close and the first week of June is looking quiet. We should see seasonable temperatures on balance and while there will be some shower chances, it is noting terribly serious. 

Above, a summary of the departure from normal for the month of May when it comes to precipitation. May saw it all--from snow to thunderstorms. 

Monday-Tuesday
The start of the week is looking pretty nice. Monday is better than Tuesday, as high pressure dominates. However, Tuesday we begin to see more clouds filter in. Overnight on Tuesday we may see showers, but nothing significant. 

Wednesday-Thursday
The middle of the week is looking more unsettled. Timing is still uncertain, but Wednesday is where I think we will see our best rain chances, as a weak system will drop down from Canada. The rain does not look particularly heavy, but there is some chance of thunderstorms. By Thursday, things should clear and we are back to beautiful conditions. Temperatures will rise gradually over the course of the week, but humidity looks to remain low, unlike last week. 

Friday-Sunday
We should be right back to nice conditions by Friday, as the storm departs. Temperatures are warmest toward the end of the work week, but should begin to come down again over the weekend. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. 

Tuesday: Increasing clouds with a chance of showers late. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy early with decreasing clouds. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain early 20%. 

Friday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​ 

Disc: A general below normal temperature regime remains in place.  And it's interesting to watch, meteorologically, because even when it seems like it shouldn't happen, the atmosphere finds a new way for it to happen.  So we'll see how long it can last.

Currently: Not a whole lot going on at this moment.  Low pressure, the remnants of Bertha, was located over E OH.  This will pump up moisture across the state even further today and could result in a brief shower at times.

Rest of today/tonight: A brief passing shower cannot be ruled out today.  However, due to the lightness of any rain and very widely scattered nature of the showers, I don't feel a big mention is warranted in the fcst.  Highest chc for anything occurring the further W you go.

Into tonight, a very warm and muggy night.  The combination of warm air advection and an already very humid air mass leads me to go a few degrees warmer than guidance for tonight's lows.  The chc of showers increases for a time around or just after midnight, but only enough in far SW CT to mention in the fcst, and even there, it's just a small chc.  Lows should only be in the mid to upper 60s.

For tomorrow, I'd almost like to split the state up into two groups.  For W CT, there is a chance of showers and t-storms any time from mid-afternoon on.  For E CT, the day should be dry.  With the actual cold front lingering so far to the W, there really isn't much chc for severe wx, as the trigger remains well W of the area.  As for temps, guidance is in relatively good agreement, so I won't make too many chgs.   Genly highs should be 70-75, but a few upper 70s are psbl in the I 91 corridor.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: Again, I'd almost like to split this up into two groups.  Thunderstorms will be ongoing in W CT, with a 2nd round likely around midnight.  In Ern CT, they will be just developing around midnight.  In W CT, they should wind down by morning.  In Ern CT, they should continue on and off thru the day on Sat.  Guidance is in fairly good agreement regarding temps, and the state can be painted uniformly in upper 70s.

Long Term (Sunday and beyond): The main focus for weather in the long term will be in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame, as a frontal boundary meanders across the area.

In the meantime, expect a string of very beautiful days Sunday through Tuesday, as cool high pressure behind the front builds in.  Mornings could be downright chilly during this period.  Guidance temps will be generally accepted through the period for these days, since it is in remarkably good agreement for being this far out.  The coolest day should be on Mon, with highs generally near or just above 70 degrees for most places, but staying in the upper 60s on Mon.

For Wednesday into Thursday, a warm front will attempt to move into the area.  There is a lot of uncertainty during this period, regarding whether or not the front clears the area, whether or not it stalls, and if it stalls, where.  For now, I need to be relatively vague with the details, so expect an unsettled pd, perhaps with multiple rounds of showers and t-storms.  As far as temps, with great uncertainty regarding frontal position, and me not really having conf one way or the other, I'll just go close to guidance.  So I'd xpct highs in the low 70s, for the most part, maybe a deg or two warmer on Thurs, depending on the final frontal position.

Looking into the long range, I do not expect a serious change in the overall pattern for the foreseeable future.  Yes, climatological normals rise, so temps may trend upward a bit.  But the overall pattern conts to favor hi press over the Canadian Maritimes, which would mean onshore flow and marine layer for our region.  Until that chgs, don't look for meaningful chgs in our wx pattern.  The GFS conts to produce phantom "very warm days" in the lr, but I will put no stock in that until I see meteorology to support that.

Now, let's take a look graphically at some of the systems slated to affect the area this week.  First, I'll show the storms for tomorrow, but keep in mind what I said up top.  It's such a slow-moving sys that we need to split the state up into two groups.  Next, I'll show the Wednesday to Thursday front. As I said, that system is not set in stone, but I just want to show that it should be unsettled.

The first map, valid late Friday afternoon, shows thunderstorms just getting ready to move into Western CT.  Although the system has not evolved like that yet, if you look over Northern PA, you can already almost see the storms evolving into two distinct rounds.

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There is a whole lot going on on the next map I am about to post, valid late Wednesday afternoon.  There are multiple low pressure centers, stretching from KS to New England to the Canadian Maritimes.  Tracing the 570 thickness line, we can trace the warm front from the mouth of the Del Bay, thru Pittsburgh, to Chicago.  You can also see how a plethora of wx solns could be psbl, ranging from vry heavy rain to a few showers.  Stay tuned, as this sys gets closer, for more updts.

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Anyway, that's all for now! Stay safe and see you next week!

​-GP!

Good morning from SCW. 

With the exception of yesterday, what a stretch of weather! For much of the week, we saw sunny and seasonable conditions. Yesterday, we were dodging rain showers, with some staying in fairly persistent rain, and others longing for a little precipitation to wash away all the pollen. 

Well, for the foreseeable future, rain chances will be low, as we finish the holiday weekend with dry conditions and go into the shortened work with with warmer and dry conditions until the end of the week. Let's dive in. 

Fantastic imagery from GOES-E of the East Coast. Our storm from yesterday has pushed south, giving us a perfect Sunday. Overnight there is a small chance of some showers, but it's barely worth mentioning.

Monday
Memorial Day is the unofficial start to summer for many, and while it looks more cloudy than today, it will be dry with seasonable temperatures. Outdoor activities should be fine, and temperatures look to top out in the low 70s inland. Along the shoreline, it's the time of year where you need to watch out for sea breezes, which would keep temperatures a touch cooler than inland areas. Clouds should diminish over the course of the day, so it looks pretty good everywhere. Humidity does creep up a bit, but it's nothing bad. 

Tuesday-Thursday
By Tuesday, our taste of summer begins. Clouds should diminish, and inland areas will see highs in the low 80s as a ridge of high pressure arrives. This isn't a "big heat" ridge, but it will feel like summer. Temperatures are a touch cooler at the shoreline, but still nice. With warmer temperatures, you will feel the humidity more each day, but it will still be manageable. Wednesday and Thursday look good, but the real humidity should arrive by Thursday. Thursday things begin to get more unsettled, as showers approach the region in advance of a cold front. 

Right now, I think Thursday is mostly dry, but with a summer like pattern taking hold, I'll introduce some slight odds for showers and thunderstorms in case the front is a bit faster. 

Above: the 06z GEFS depiction for temperature anomalies during the week. It's warmer than normal, which will make it feel like summer for this time of the year, but nothing outrageously hot.  

Friday
Friday looks like the next real break in our nice weather. It'll be warm and humid, with mostly cloudy conditions and rain showers and thunderstorms. We'll see if these storms are more garden variety or stronger as we track the front and environmental conditions during the week. The bright side of this weather however is that cooler and less humid weather should arrive for the last weekend of May and meteorological spring! 

Above: The European ensemble (EPS) depiction of the upper level pattern during the week. Note the ridge of high pressure and how it eases toward the end of the week. Early June is looking more seasonable and less hot at this time. 

Saturday-Sunday
Currently, a nice weekend is expected as the cold front passes on Friday and brings cooler and drier conditions. Right now, I expect much better humidity and sunny skies! 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy early, with decreasing clouds. Highs in the low 70s inland and upper 60s at the shore. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s inland and mid to upper 70s at the shore. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Thursday: Increasing clouds, warm and humid. Highs in the low to mid 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s at the shore. Chance of showers 20%. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 60%. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​ ​

Good afternoon from SCW. 

We've had cold, we've had snow, we've had heat, and we've had thunderstorms all in the first two weeks of the month! After early indications that the week ahead would be unsettled, things have changed, and now we're looking at a calm week as we head into Memorial Day Weekend and the unofficial start to summer. The tradeoff will be a slightly cooler than normal week, but not nearly as chilly as some of the conditions we saw just a week or two ago. 

All the while, we're watching our first named tropical system of the season. Let's dive in. 

Above is the latest GOES-E imagery of the East Coast. We're socked in with more clouds today, and Arthur is swirling off the southeast coast. Arthur is expected to make a close pass to North Carolina, but the steering pattern will likely keep Arthur safely away from New England. 

​Monday-Thursday
Actually, there isn't a whole lot to say in this discussion. The two main features during this period will be a large upper level low that will settle in the Mid-Atlantic and southeast, and Tropical Storm Arthur. Tropical Storm Arthur will move north-northeastward, bringing some rain and wind to North Carolina through tomorrow. The upper level low over land along with a building high in Canada will keep the storm away.

​That said, seas will be rough and it could be breezy at the shore over the course of the week as there is a pressure gradient. This delicate balance however should keep rain away. There may be some brief showers, but nothing significant. 

Above is a European model depiction of the pattern at the upper levels over the next few days. Arthur is a weak storm that is easily brushed aside by the ridging to the north and upper level low in over the US. That puts us in a sort of dry slot that should allow us to have our first dry period in some time. 

Overall, temperatures look to be fairly consistent, with a warming trend as we head toward the holiday weekend. 

Memorial Day Weekend (Friday-Sunday)
The tradeoff for a calm week may be an unsettled holiday weekend. As the upper level low swirls offshore, it may make a run toward the region on Saturday. If it reaches us, that means that we would see some unsettled weather. It's far enough out however that I'm not too concerned. It looks like it will feel like Memorial Day, with warmer temperatures during the period. 

Tropical Storm Arthur
It wouldn't be a DB discussion if we didn't talk tropical. Tropical Storm Arthur formed yesterday and is the sixth consecutive storm that developed prior to the official start of hurricane season, which is June 1st. It is fairly disorganized at the moment, but is expected to pick up intensity as it approaches North Carolina. 

Although early season systems do not have a strong correlation to an active hurricane season, Arthur is a reminder that hurricane season requires all of us to be prepared.

While wind makes all the headlines, water in the form of rainfall and storm surge kills 90% of those lost during tropical events. Shoreline folks in particular should be preparing in case--in something that would be entirely on brand for 2020--we end up receiving a tropical impact. 

This hurricane season is expected to be active. Don't wait until the last minute to prepare. 

The Dailies
Monday: Chance of showers early, otherwise, partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 60s.  

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 60s. 

Thursday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 40%. 

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​ 

Disc: At least there will be no more frost or freeze headlines until next fall.  That we can clear out of our system.  However, the fcst for this week is actually more complicated than weeks' past, as we have to deal with a cutoff low.  In addition, like what's going on today, sea breezes will be a problem, since this last cold spell left the ocean and sound very chilly.

Currently: Strong high pressure offshore.  Warm front near PIT.  SE winds are keeping temps cooler along the S coast, up to about the Merritt Pkwy, while the I 91 corridor is warming nicely.

Tonight: Main weather question tonight is how much, if any, rain we get from the warm front.  There is no question this time about the warm front clearing the area.  The likelihood of showers and t-storms for very late tonight into early tmrw morn has definitely increased in recent model runs.  So I will do the same for this fcst.  A period of showers and t-storms will be likely during the overnight hrs.  As for temps, will basically ride the dew points for lows, with humidity levels rising to near 100% and no change in air mass expected.  Model guidance is in decent agreement, and will follow.  So expect lows near or just above 50.

Tomorrow: Tomorrow is setting up to be an active day across the area.  The SPC has placed the entire state in at least a slight risk of svr storms, with the Nrn and NW parts of the state in an enhanced risk.  I'll include that map on the bottom in the "graphics" section.   For simplicity, I'll make that section all about tmrw.  But more on that later.  Tomorrow's t-storm threat will depend largely on clearing after the early morn rains.  At this point, it looks like skies should clear rather quickly.  NBM temperatures have risen.   With no morn clouds at all, we could really be off to the races tmrw! But even with the clouds, temps will still soar pretty good.  NBM guidance was closely followed.  High temps should be 75-80 degs, with the coolest readings along the S coast.

Tomorrow night/Sat... Thunderstorms probably clear the area a little after midnight.  Then skies clear.  Sat is a beautiful day, with warm temps and lower humidity than Fri.  Due to the combination of effects of downsloping (inland) and no sea breeze (coast), I went a few degs warmer than NBM  consensus.  So look for highs in the mid 70s.

Long Term (Sun and beyond): Most of the weather during this period will be determined highly by the evolution of three features, none of which are that clear right now.  A low pressure system going into the Great Lakes and sweeping a cold front towards the region will interact with a tropical or subtropical low offshore and a "regular" low coming up the coast, in that order.  There is a lot of model chaos at this time regarding all these features, as one might expect, but the chaos factor is larger than normal, due to the fact that you have 3 pieces and they're all moving very slowly.  Models do not do well with these "unconventional" setups.  For now, I'll try to make the fcst as close to consensus as possible.  The GFS, as is par for the course, is much further S than everything else, and doesn't get a drop of rain into the area.  The UKMET is the wild extreme the other way, and fully phases everything together, creating a massive rainstorm (with high wind to boot) for the area.  The GGEM and ECMWF are in between, with the GGEM closer to the GFS and the ECMWF closer to its brother (or sister, to not be politically incorrect).  My fcst, for now, to follow the course of least regret, will be to comp btwn the GGEM and ECMWF and ignore the two extremes- either is psbl, but bust potnl is lwr by ignoring extremes always.

I will keep Sunday dry for now, based on the fact that the GFS has very low QPF and the NBM is totally dry.  It is not out of the question to get a brief shower or sprinkle later in the day or early evening.  But for now, we'll keep it dry.  Based on that, and the fact that there should at least be some breaks of sun, I'll go a couple deg higher than guidance, and call for highs in the mid 60s.

Looking over the NBM guidance, I see it is showing 1"+ of rain for all of CT from the Mon-Wed timeframe.  My current forecast philosophy does not go nearly that high, but keep in mind, nearly all models are showing someone getting 5-10" of rain.  Right now, the model consensus is to keep that area well SW of our area, which kind of makes sense, w/high press to the N bleeding down dry air.  However, models can be wrong on the placement/strength of the high and a slight wobble in any direction would move that rainfall closer or further from our state.  For now, just ride what I have here and stay tuned for further changes.  Temps shud be blw norm thru the pd, w/highs just in the upper 50s, moderating to the 60-65 range ltr in the pd.

Looking into the longer range, a more springlike pattern takes hold on the region.  My biggest concern with taking any temps too literally in the long range is water temps.  Water temps remain very cold and until they warm up, we'll have to deal with sea breezes, esepcially S of the Merritt Pkwy.  So temps could be modified downward until water temps (slowly) warm up.

Sorry for briefness in the long term and lateness today.  I had a data outage for about one hour that kind of messed up timing on everything. 

Now, let's take a graphic look at a couple of products.  We're going to do things a little different today, and I'm going to post tomorrow's severe weather outlook and then the tropical weather outlook from the SPC and NHC, respectively, instead of our usual model maps.   Here is tomorrow's svr wx outlook from the SPC.  You can see all of CT is in at least a slgt risk of svr tstorms, with N and NW CT in an enhanced risk (the next step up).  The primary threat is wind and a few tornadoes.

Now here is the NHC's tropical weather outlook.  That blob near the Bahamas is going to become the tropical or subtropical system that may feed additional moisture into our potential rainstorm for next week.

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Anyway, that's all for now! Stay safe and see you next week!

-GP!