Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

Although poorly timed, the weekend washout was much needed, with many parts of the state receiving roughly between 2-4 inches of rain. That should help with the pollen, and with vegetation statewide. Unfortunately, with the rain came record cold temperatures. 

Today we finally saw clearing, and the week ahead, the first week of June and meteorological summer, looks like a mixed bag with a definitive warming trend. Let's dive in. 

Tuesday-Wednesday
Tomorrow we finally return to more normal reasonable temperatures this time of year, with highs in the low to mid 70s. We should see partly cloudy conditions. It could be a little warmer with sunnier conditions, but I'll hold for now. Wednesday looks to be a bit warmer, with continued partly cloudy conditions. We could see some scattered showers however, especially in the afternoon.  

Thursday-Friday
The end of the shortened work week will bring unsettled conditions. On Thursday, we will see a low potentially cut to our west, bringing the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Although temperatures should remain in the 70s, with the dominant flow we should see rising dew points, which means more humidity. Friday could see some clearing, but it all depends on the timing and speed of the low. For now, we expect shower chances and cloudy conditions, similar to the depiction of the 18z GFS and other guidance.  

Saturday-Sunday
The biggest story that we see as we look at the week ahead is the building heat. There is a growing signal that a big ridge of high pressure will build over the western Atlantic and eastern US, creating a flow that will allow for heat to push into the region.

Saturday for now looks like a transition day, meaning warm, but not necessarily too hot, followed by the beginning of a period of potential 90+ heat on Sunday. This far out, this can change, but we could be looking at our first heat wave (3 consecutive days of 90+ high temperatures) starting by next weekend.

From 49 degrees to 94 degrees in just one week? We'll see. Below is a European ensemble projection of the 500mb pattern. You see the ridging build into New England. This looks like a pattern that could actually bring the warmest temperatures "over the top" into northern New England, but we would still get plenty of heat and humidity here. Summer's not too far away...

Finally, hurricane season starts on June 1st. The predictions are for another above average year. As we all saw last season, it only takes one storm to make a bad season. We will be here every step of the way. 

The Dailies
Tuesday: Partly cloudy and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of showers 30%. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 40%. 

Saturday: Partly cloudy and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny, hot, and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​ 

Disc: There really is something mystical about 17 days.  This is the fifth time in the last ten years that we have had a streak longer than 12 days w/o measurable pcpn.  The ironic thing is none of them ever go longer than 17 days.  You can almost set your calendar that it will rain on the 17th day.  Anyway, that portion of our pattern is over.   Now we get to look forward to much more frequent rains.  Whether or not that's a good thing is in the eyes of the beholder.  But, in general, for farming and reservoir interests, it is a good thing.

Currently: Not a whole lot going on at this time.  However, we can already see where our next rainmaker is coming from.  Low pressure near Omaha has a stationary front extending east from it all the way to SNJ.  This front will bubble up and down, but generally S of the region, the next few days, and should result in unsettled wx.

Tonight: A good radiative night in general.  Clouds from the next sys should not increase until daytime tomorrow.  So for lows, I went as low as one can go this time of yr, subtracting about 3 deg from the NBM.  Look for lows generally around 50 degrees.

Tomorrow: Clouds increase.  Rain should arrive just before sunset, so the majority of the day will be dry.  However, w/increasing clouds and flow becoming onshore, I have taken 4 deg or so off the NBM guidance.  It will be much cooler, with highs generally only in the low 60s.

Tomorrow night/Sat: Get ready for something we haven't seen in a long time- a soaking, widespread rainfall.  Rainfall amounts could be anywhere from 1-3", although I'd go toward the lower end, just because we've been dry lately.  That's not real scientific, but it works more often than not.  Either way, it's a good, beneficial rainfall for the area.  The core of the rain is Fri night, but Sat could be cloudy with drizzle and scattered showers, so will not exactly be a nice day.  Get the jackets out if headed out on Sat! I have gone 4-7 deg colder than NBM guidance, as we are clearly in the cold sector and overcast.  Look for temps hovering in the low 50s on Sat!

Long Term (Sun and beyond): For now, (and I say for now, because sometimes models will come into agreement one cycle and then the agreement fades away the next), but for now, models have come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the pattern Sun and Mon.  Right now it looks like a weak coastal low brings showers to the area Sun, but clears out fast enough that Mon is a decent day.  Going with that scenario, I'll lower NBM temps by 6-10 deg for Sun, as too many members do not have any coastal low and are showing p/sunny skies.  So look for highs only 50-55, maybe a deg or two warmer than Sat, with periodic showers and gusty winds.

So assuming this evolution is correct, we'll at least offer one decent day for the weekend, that being Memorial Day itself.  Assuming skies clear, and we downslope, I feel confident going a couple deg warmer than NBM guidance and going with highs of 70-75 with plenty of sun.

For Tuesday, temp guidance is generally accepted w/just a few local tweaks.  Looks like a good day, w/a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the mid 70s.  A weak front approaches late Tue, but for now, I'll keep any showers to a very slight chance and restrict it to Tue night, so the day looks fine.

Once again on Wed, I have generally accepted temp guidance w/a few tweaks here and there.  We continue the trend of a bit warmer each day- looking at mid to upper 70s.  Humidity should be on the increase, and w/an approaching frontal zone, I've introduced scattered showers & storms late in the day.  

For Thu, I've lowered temp guidance by a couple deg, due to my expectation that it will be cloudier than models predict.  We're way out here, but this looks like a typical unsettled late spring or summer day, where there is a frontal boundary nearby, so any AM sun quickly destabilizes the atmosphere, and the front, combined with any sea breeze boundaries, initiates scattered to numerous showers and t-storms.  Highs should be sim to those of Wed- in the mid to upper 70s.

Long Range: Unsettled conditions could linger for 5-7 days beyond this fcst period, though it obviously won't rain all the time.  After that, there could be a 3-5 day heat ridge, followed by cooler wx.  Nothing too atypical heading into June.

Now, let's take a  graphical  look at weather systems affecting the area as we head into the weekend.  First, let's look at Friday's system, and you can see a good slug of rain Friday night, esp on the S coast, but really the whole state can get good rains.

​

Next, here is the GFS valid midday Sunday.  It has a very weak and disorganized coastal low.  The GGEM and ECMWF are stronger, and the fcst already leans that way.

​

Anyway, that's all for now! Take care and see you next week!
-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

On Sunday, I mentioned watching Wednesday for our next chance of rain and thunderstorms as a front moved toward the region. As we've gotten closer to Wednesday, the signals for potential severe weather, especially in western and northern CT have grown. This is a special discussion to outline the potential tomorrow. 

Above: the latest SPC (Storm Prediction Center) outlook placing our usual favored areas, northern, and western CT, in a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow. A marginal risk exists elsewhere and the severe threat rapidly diminishes in SE CT. 

Overall Setup
First, let's be clear. It's still a bit early for widespread severe weather here in CT. As the graphic shows, the highest potential for severe weather will be in NW CT and far northern CT, where the best ingredients are likely to be. Severe weather is by its very nature mesoscale, meaning most see non-severe weather, and isolated to scattered spots do. We are not looking at a widespread severe weather threat here. 

Now to the forecast. For severe weather to take place, you usually need four ingredients: Shear, Lift, Instability, and Moisture. Tomorrow looks hot and humid, especially inland with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and dew points in the 60s. This will provide us with the first two ingredients for thunderstorms, by the way of instability and moisture.

While shear tomorrow looks marginal, it looks to be sufficient to provide for storm organization in New England and we will see lift in the form of an approaching cold front/shortwave.

The high resolution NAM below shows the possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow between 2pm and midnight. Don't take this projection to the bank, as things are certain to change in storm progression. What's important here is that the NAM shows isolated (discrete) thunderstorms nearby which may be able to maximize potential in NW CT followed by a broken line of storms that fizzle later in the day and evening. 

The best severe weather potential currently looks to be in Upstate New York and northern New England. 

Timing
Tomorrow morning and early afternoon look fine. That will allow instability to build and for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop quickly during the mid-afternoon hours. For now, I think any storms will develop in the Berkshires or eastern NY between 1-2pm and slowly move toward NW CT. I expect showers and storms between 2-10pm, but this timing will be refined tomorrow. 

Impacts
Again, for most this isn't likely to be anything other than garden variety showers or storms, but I'm doing a discussion because given the ingredients there is a chance (especially in NW CT) of storms with damaging wind gusts and a small tornado threat.

For that part of CT, the SPC has a 15% damaging wind probability in addition to a 5% tornado probability right along the border with MA and NY. Tomorrow is a day to keep an eye to the sky in NW CT. 

Below are the MLCAPE (right) and Supercell Composite (left) projections from the high resolution NAM tomorrow afternoon. This actually looks pretty robust, but we will see what conditions look like tomorrow. Any storms that do develop in this environment could become strong to severe. Note that the most favorable conditions for storms are in northern New England and NW/far northern CT. 

Overall, we're expecting an active day in New England tomorrow and that could extend into northern and western parts of CT tomorrow afternoon. While storms are likely to be hit or miss, the environment suggests that this is something to watch as storms could become strong to severe with a low tornado threat. 

We'll be here with updates as conditions warrant. 

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​ 

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

Our first taste of summer of the year resulted in our first 90 degree day for inland locations yesterday and a warm, but not oppressive Sunday with highs in the 80s across Connecticut. At this hour some scattered rain showers associated with an advancing cold front is are departing, heralding a return to more seasonable temperatures. 

The week ahead looks relatively calm, and as we head into the holiday weekend there is a fair amount of uncertainty on what the weather will look like. Let's dive in! 

Above: the temperature departure so far for May. For the most part, we've been near normal with temperatures, though today and temperatures during the middle of the week might edge that up a touch. 

Monday-Tuesday
The start of the week looks great. With the cold front advancing tonight we are going to see a significant drop in temperatures leading to a comfortable night. Monday and Tuesday will bring more seasonable temperatures, lower humidity, and sunny skies. Monday looks to be the coolest day of the period, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Tuesday will see slightly warmer temperatures but it should still be nice with highs in the 70s. No rain is forecast through this period. 

Wednesday-Thursday
We will see temperatures and conditions return to a summer-like feel, especially on Wednesday. At this time, Wednesday looks like our next best chance for inland highs to reach the upper 80s to low 90s, as we see ridge placement favoring warmth in advance of another cold front. Wednesday evening we could see some showers and storms as the front sags south, but it remains to be seen how much coverage we see with precipitation. The Euro looked a little more robust this afternoon, and keeps precipitation chances going into early Thursday depending on the timing of the front. It's something we'll be watching. 

Above: image from weathermodels.com showing European model projections of temperatures on Wednesday. As is usually the case this time of year, the shoreline is cooler due to the coastal influence of a cooler Long Island Sound.

​Right now, Thursday looks warm but cooler than Wednesday with the front through the region. We should see generally sunnier conditions as the day progresses. 

Memorial Day Weekend (Friday-Monday)
Originally, the long range tried to show a wet period, as we are likely to see either a slow moving low develop to our south or a series of coastal lows. Now, the guidance is trying to coalesce around the slow moving low idea, but keeping the rainy activity to the south. There's still a lot of time to sort things out but at this point our initial forecast is for seasonable temperatures and partly cloudy conditions with the chance of rain increasing by Monday. Below is a GFS depiction of the holiday weekend, but keep in mind this is all still subject to change. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland and upper 70s to low 80s at the shore (especially SE CT). Rain or thunderstorms possible later in the afternoon/evening. Chance of rain 40%.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy early followed by clearing. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain early 20%. 

Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. 

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. 

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Memorial Day: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Finally, it feels good to be back from the Midwest! As many of you know, last week I wasn't able to do a forecast because I was returning from a storm chase trip to the Midwest. Although there is certainly an thrill seeking part to chasing, there is also a lot to learn while forecasting and tracking the development of severe thunderstorms that helps when identifying severe weather around here. It was a great trip!

Enjoy this picture of a supercell in NW Kansas and video of strong inflow into the storm, which produced large hail and a landspout tornado. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​ ​

Disc: It appears temps will generally run normal to above normal over the next week or two, with many temp swings possible.  As we head into the long range, the pattern could gradually turn more stormy.

Currently: Back door cold front has made it all the way to CPA, with high pressure near BOS, which has turned our winds to onshore.  This is why today is much cooler than yesterday.

Tonight: Temp guidance generally accepted, w/minor adjustments here or there.  Think locations along the immediate S coast could be a little cooler than guidance, w/urban centers a touch warmer, but it's not worth making big changes over.  Lows generally 50-55.

Tomorrow: Again temp guidance generally accepted.  It seems to do a good job recognizing the diff between inland and the shoreline.  Temps may be much cooler along the immediate shore.  Highs range from the mid 70s to low 80s.  Some locations along the immediate coast could struggle to make 70!

Tomorrow Night/Sat: We could see two rounds of rain during this period, w/sun in between.  But at this time, it seems like models are having a difficult time latching on to the timing of the showers.  For now, I feel like we'll get scattered coverage late tomorrow night, w/the warm front, then very little to no coverage most of the day Sat, then scattered to numerous later in the day w/instability & prefrontal trough.  I could be way too low w/temps, but I went a few deg below guidance, in case it is cloudier than NBM indicates, since guidance seems to be trending that way.  However, like I said, if I bust, I'll probably be too cool, since the sun angle is very strong this time of yr.  Anyhow, I have temps again showing a wide discrepancy between the S coast and inland.  A general avg is mid to upper 70s, but the range will likely be bigger than that.

Long Term (Sun and beyond): Main chances for convection, as well as our hottest days, should be both Sun and Wed.

For Sun, we're in the warm sector and we warm up nicely.  I've taken a couple deg off guidance only because I don't want to be super aggressive and then we stay cloudy too long, but I already have highs generally 80-85, w/mid to upper 80s along I 91.  It is not impossible for locations along I 91 to reach 90!  A cold front approaches later Sun.  However, for now, I have kept chances at slight chance, due to lack of moisture and bad frontal timing.  Any precip probably waits until Sun night, when diurnal stabilization will be well underway.

For Mon, I'll generally accept temp guidance for the most part, which has highs near 70 statewide.  The only adjustment I'll make is to go 70-75 near I 91, since there should be a few sunny breaks and that area warms well.   Generally mostly cloudy, as frontal zone stalls to our south, close enough to keep clouds over the region.

For Tue, The front tries to pulse north a little bit.  It doesn't get close enough to the area to really go thru or anything, but it could be close enough to just graze the area with a shower, esp the S coast, so a slight chance has been added.  I went way below guidance w/more clouds expected than NBM interprets.  Highs generally mid 60s, except the I 91 corridor where I have 65-70.  (Now watch that front trend back S and I am too cool!)

For Wed, for now, staying a couple deg below NBM guidance, only to be conservative, and generally tick the temps upward w/time, which is general forecasting convention.  Temps avg out in the low 80s, but there will be a big discrepancy between inland, (esp the I 91 corridor, where I have mid to upper 80s), and the S coast, which may not make 80.  I have basically two slight chances of showers/storms on Wed.  First, in the AM, then at night, with first the warm frontal passage, and then the cold frontal passage.  But don't think it will be a rainy day- it may not rain either time.  There isn't a ton of moisture avail, plus both fronts have kinda bad timing for climo instability.  

For Thu, new guidance has the front lingering nearby, which could be true, as fronts tend to slow down, as they move into ridges.  If this happens, there would be showers and thunderstorms lingering into Thu AM.  For now, I have only a slight chance in the fcst, because this is a new development, and there's no reason to go crazy with it.  I also went a couple deg under temp guidance, due to more clouds.  But once again, we'd be a bit warmer if the sunk further S.  (OF course, if it moved WAY S, we'd be cooler again, so this may be a good call either way!) Anyway, temps look pretty uniform w/a stronger wind flow, and mid to upper 70s seems reasonable thruout the state.

In the long range, the general temp pattern continues.  It looks like we'll avg a bit above norm.  Most days should be close to norm, but every 3-5 days, it looks like one day gets very warm to hot.  This conveys a general avg to a bit above norm regarding temps.  In addition, it seems like a boundary should be near the area much of the time, leading to increased chances of storms.  We can use the rain!

I don't have a ton of time for graphics today, and there isn't really any solid storm that's guaranteed in the next 7 days.  The best chances for measurable rain are probably late Sat/Sat night.  Take care and see you next week!

​-GP!