Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

There is a lot going on! The two big weather stories of the week bookend the forecast period. Tomorrow we see our first real severe weather threat of the season for parts of CT, with the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) issuing a slight risk for severe weather with an enhanced risk just to our west. The other story will be this weekend, as we see a signal for our first widespread 90 degree day. Let's dive in. 

Above, the SPC outlook (that will be updated overnight) that puts central and western CT in a slight risk zone. 

Monday
As is usually the case with our early season severe threats, there's a fair amount of uncertainty on the extent of the potential. We'll see significant shear and decent moisture and instability, but we aren't quite sure on the timing, and whether the front will be able to take advantage of higher instability earlier in the afternoon. 

Currently, I think we will see a warm, muggy, and mostly nice day in advance of a line of storms by mid-afternoon. Some of the storms will be severe, especially in upstate NY and western CT. The biggest hazard will be strong winds and hail. We will be watching through the day. 

Above is a simulation of tomorrow from noon to midnight from the high resolution NAM. Note how it has a strong line develop in NY and gradually weaken as it advances into central and eastern CT. We'll see what the timing and ingredients look like tomorrow. In the wake of the front, we see a nice springtime period of weather. 

Tuesday-Thursday
For those that were appalled at the summer-like warmth this weekend, the middle of the week is for you. We will see beautiful and dry conditions during this period, with highs in the 70s and lower humidity, along with cooler nights. 

Friday-Sunday
The weekend warms up, and potentially in a big way. Friday we will see an increase in warmth, with inland temperatures crossing 80 again in the warmer spots with slightly increased humidity. Saturday looks like the peak heat day, with our first chance of widespread 90s inland. Sunday has a split in the guidance as we see a cold front advance, but for now, I am going with slower timing of the front meaning we see continued warmth on Sunday and increasing clouds in advance of the front. Overall, nothing Earth shattering, but likely our warmest temperatures so far. 

The Dailies
Monday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening. Some storms may be strong to severe. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Cooler at the shoreline. Chance of rain 70%. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Friday: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s inland. Few degrees cooler at the shore. 

Saturday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Highs in the mid to upper 70s at the immediate shoreline. 

Sunday: Partly sunny, warm, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and low to mid 70s at the shore. Chance of storms 30%. 

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​
-DB

Disc: If one only looked at the 500 MB chart today, one would think that there would be widespread temps in the 80s across the NE US this week.  However, of course, wx occurs at all levels of the atmosphere, from the tropopause all the way to the sfc.  And that pesky ocean low- the one that gave lots of rain to the S coast- is still spinning offshore and creating temp problems in our area.

Tonight: Will have to watch for a cloud bank rolling in off the ocean/LIS, esp for S coast.  Because of this, there are not ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight.  So I went close to guidance on temps, w/low to mid 50s expected for much of the state.

Tomorrow: I went way below guidance on temps.  Due to sfc wind diagrams, I feel we get socked into a cloud bank most of the day, along w/onshore flow.  This is not a high-confid fcst, since it is possible that we break out into the sun for a few hours, and that could destroy this fcst.  However, clouds showed up today that were not fcst at all, so that incrs my confidence on clouds tmrw.  I think highs generally stay around 60, but maybe hit 65 along the I 91 corridor.

Tomorrow Night/Fri: Conf incrs here that more clouds/ocean flow will persist.  This is on all modeling now and is trending up. So I went way under guidance temps again, but introduced a wider spread, with some mid to even upper 60s near Bradley Field, but socked in the mid to upper 50s along the S coast.  In addition, there will be areas of patchy drizzle/light showers possible, esp Srn areas, in the aftn.

Long Term: Main problems are onshore flow Sat, when and if it breaks, and a round of showers and storms along a cold front Mon.

Sat: Onshore flow/clouds/drizzle, light showers, etc will continue for at least the 1st 1/2 of the day.  When we clear out will have a big impact on temps.  If we clear out a cpl hrs earlier than I fcst, temps will likely be a few deg warmer.  On the other hand,. if we clear out a cpl hrs later than I fcst, temps will likely be a few deg cooler.  I went under guidance by a bit, but not as much as the prev 2 days.  So I think we'll get near 70, w/mid 60s or so on the S coast, to maybe a few 74's or so along I 91.

Sun: Prob get a decent day btwn sys now.  Models show nice land breezes and really keep any precip from the approaching frontal sys until later at night.  I went a bit below temp guidance, because a clear day is a new development in modeling and I don't want to get too hung up on 1 solution when we're still 4 days out.  But even so, I have temps similar to Sat's +2 deg or so.

Mon: We may have a period of showers Later Sun night into early Mon morn w/the warm frontal passage.  Then Mon clears out.  SW flow ahead of cold front should allow warm and humid air to surge N into the state.  Went near guidance for most, maybe a deg or two warmer in spots, as models sometimes throw up spurious showers ahead of a cold front.  Highs generally mid 70s, although the S coast prob struggles to get past 70 and someone prob approaches 80 inland valleys.  It is too far out to say, but it is possible that some t-storms along the front could be strong!

Tue: Nice day behind the front.  Went a bit below guidance, but only by a deg or two, w/good cold air advection.  Gusty winds possible w/cold air advection too.  Temps should be more uniform, as onshore flow finally gets wiped out! Highs generally upper 60s, with a few of the usual warm spots passing 70 deg.

Wed: Another beauty.  Again went a bit below temp guidance w/cold air advection continuing.  Winds gradually diminish.  Highs generally mid 60s, with a few upper 60s in the usual warm spots.

Depending on wind dir, May 21-24 could be a warm period, but it once again looks to get washed out by a pretty strong cold front near the end of that pd.  At least the pattern finally resembles one of mid-late spring now!

For today's graphics, I can't really find one that shows much of the onshore flow stuff Fri-Sat.  The reason is because models don't really show drizzle well, as they focus on measurable precip.  For the sake of preserving a good pic for the general public, I really don't feel like going into a discord about wind barbs.  So I will post a map only of Mon's t-storm potential.  The map I am posting actually shows a good squall line pretty much right along I 84.  Let's keep that in the back of our minds and see how it does!

​

Anyway, that's all for now, see you next week!

​-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

It was a pretty rough weekend with cold and dreary conditions on Saturday and somewhat better conditions on this Mother's Day, but as we head into this next week of May we may very well see the best weather week of the year! As GP noted in his forecast, the pattern is changing. It'll be gradual early, with a taste of summer by the end of the week. Let's dive in!

Above, the GEFS temperature anomaly for the latter half of the forecast period. There's a strong signal for a quick and brief transition from spring to summer-like conditions. 
​
Monday-Wednesday
The start of the week will see us finally pull out of the colder pattern we've been in, with our departing storm still influencing our weather by bringing continued breezy conditions on Monday. It'll be warmer, with high temperatures in the 60s, but the breeze may have it feel colder. 

Tuesday we really break free and sprint toward springtime conditions. The wind will diminish and we should see sunny and outstanding conditions statewide. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with temperatures a little cooler at the shoreline due to the sea breeze. 

Wednesday will be even better, with temperatures in the 70s in most places, again, a bit cooler at the shore but still wonderful. 

Ridging sets up in this GFS run above, which will allow for us to briefly flip from spring to summer at the end of the week. 

​Thursday-Sunday
Thursday we start turning up the heat. Ridging should be in place and allow for a significant warm up, with highs in the 80s for most of inland areas. Expect sunny, warm and increasingly humid conditions during the Thursday-Saturday period, with Saturday the closest chance inland areas have to reaching the upper 80s to maybe even a spot 90. We'll be watching. 

Sunday is more tricky, as we watch the advance of a cold front. There may be some showers around depending on the timing of a front, but for now, I will keep shower chances low and continue the warm conditions. 

The Dailies
Monday: Partly cloudy and breezy. Highs in the low to mid 60s. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. A bit cooler at the immediate shoreline. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Friday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Saturday: Partly cloudy, warm and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 30%. 

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 
​
-DB

We will prob go thru one more fcst cycle w/o a whole lot of spring wx before we break out as we head into the middle of May.

A sfc low was currently analyzed over Long Island, w/a dissipating cold front over the Alleghenies.  Whatever is left of this front will move thru this eve.  This front does not have any cold air behind it, but will dry the air mass out.

For tonight, due to the init temps being 2-5 deg too warm, I lowered the NBM by that much.  Lows will not drop a whole lot from where they are right now.  Expect lows to be in the mid to upper 40s and maybe begin rising toward dawn.

For tomorrow, a beautiful spring day is on tap.  Guidance temps look relatively good, so no major chgs were made.  Generally upper 60s across the state.

Tomorrow night/Fri: Models generally coming into better agreement w/potential for coastal low.  Will be expanding likely pops to I 84 and add heavy at times and gusty winds to the S coast.  Chc pops have been maintained for the far N,w/concern as too how far N the pcpn shield gets.  Light rain develops during the day Fri, becoming more likely as the day goes on.  W/onshore flow and developing rain, I have significantly lowered model guidance temps.  Look for highs only in the mid 50s.

Long Term- Sat and beyond: The only real headache will be Sat's nor'easter potential.  After that, the only concern is temps, which will likely be hampered by onshore flow.

For Sat, rain heavy at times early for S coast, then rain likely until aftn.  Rain likely in the morn the rest of the state, except a chc of rain in the morn far N.  Went way below guidance temps for much of the state, but close to guidance far N, where it may not rain at all.  Highs near 50, except 50-55 far N.  Windy for much of the state, esp the farther S you go.

For Sun, stays windy, esp the farther S you go.  Guidance temps don't look too bad and do seem to capture the onshore flow pretty well.  Highs near 60 for most, maybe approaching 65 in the I 91 corridor.

For Mon, still gusty breezes possible along the S coast.  Guidance looks good and captures this well, so highs generally within a few deg of 65, with warmest readings inland valleys and coolest readings on the S coast.

For Tue, onshore flow, but lighter wind.  Unclear on temps, because if winds are any stronger than progged, we get colder than fcst.  I went a bit below guidance to be conservative and left temps the same as Mon.

For Wed, very tricky temp fcst.  Models are all over the place w/wind dir and speed and will have a big impact on temps.  Some models actually intensify the onshore flow, which would mean that temps are cooler than Tue.  Other models have a light onshore flow which, given upper level temps would mean some areas are flirting with 80.  For now, I used a mix of continuity and conservatism to generate the new Wed fcst.  I introduced a wide range of temps, mostly under guidance for now, w/low 70s along the I 91 corridor to mid 60s along the S coast.

The longer range is finally beginning to show signs of a pattern break down, which would translate to more spring like wx across the Mid-Atl and SNE.

Only one graphic today, and it will be to show the nor'easter during the height of the storm, around dawn Sat.  You can look at this map and see why it is a complicated fcst, w/the gradient being so tight, and right near our state.

Anyway, that's all for now, see you next week!

​-GP!