Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
It has been a while since we've posted on the website, and that's because it has been so quiet! With the unofficial start to summer here, it's time to start posting longer discussions again.
Tomorrow, June 1, starts meteorological summer, which lasts during from June-August. Tomorrow is also the official start of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. Stay tuned for a special discussion on the hurricane season in the coming days.
Our start to June will feel like summer, with consecutive days of widespread 90 degree temperatures and rising humidity. However, by the weekend, we will end our quiet pattern and bring some much needed rainfall to the region. How much remains to be seen.
This forecast examines the period through Sunday. Let's dive in.
It has been a while since we've posted on the website, and that's because it has been so quiet! With the unofficial start to summer here, it's time to start posting longer discussions again.
Tomorrow, June 1, starts meteorological summer, which lasts during from June-August. Tomorrow is also the official start of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. Stay tuned for a special discussion on the hurricane season in the coming days.
Our start to June will feel like summer, with consecutive days of widespread 90 degree temperatures and rising humidity. However, by the weekend, we will end our quiet pattern and bring some much needed rainfall to the region. How much remains to be seen.
This forecast examines the period through Sunday. Let's dive in.
Above: Latest GFS depiction of temperature anomalies through the weekend. Thursday and Friday are true summer with temperatures well above normal, followed by a massive shift because of a cutoff low and backdoor cold front bringing weekend temperatures well below normal.
Thursday
Tomorrow is our first hot day. There is already an air quality alert for much of the state as we expect poorer air quality through the day and evening. It'll be an air conditioner day for many as a result. For inland areas, expect highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Fortunately, humidity will not be oppressive, and for those at the shoreline temperatures will be much cooler due to a refreshing sea breeze. Conditions look dry.
Friday
The end of the work week brings an active weather day, with what may be our hottest day of the year thus far, a chance of thunderstorms, and big change in our weather.
First, the heat. For inland areas, expect highs in the low to mid 90s. In addition, we will see dew points rising into the 60s, leading to hazy, hot, and humid conditions. At the shoreline, I expect another day with cooler temperatures as a result of onshore flow, but it'll be less comfortable as a result of the additional humidity.
Below is the 18z Euro depiction of the heat on Friday, courtesy of Pivotal Weather.
Tomorrow is our first hot day. There is already an air quality alert for much of the state as we expect poorer air quality through the day and evening. It'll be an air conditioner day for many as a result. For inland areas, expect highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Fortunately, humidity will not be oppressive, and for those at the shoreline temperatures will be much cooler due to a refreshing sea breeze. Conditions look dry.
Friday
The end of the work week brings an active weather day, with what may be our hottest day of the year thus far, a chance of thunderstorms, and big change in our weather.
First, the heat. For inland areas, expect highs in the low to mid 90s. In addition, we will see dew points rising into the 60s, leading to hazy, hot, and humid conditions. At the shoreline, I expect another day with cooler temperatures as a result of onshore flow, but it'll be less comfortable as a result of the additional humidity.
Below is the 18z Euro depiction of the heat on Friday, courtesy of Pivotal Weather.
Next, let's talk about the thunderstorm potential. Right now, it doesn't look like a severe weather day. We don't have enough ingredients during peak heating as it stands currently. That said, I'm watching the potential for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening as a strong backdoor cold front pushes southward through the region. This may serve as enough of a focal point for activity, and if it happens earlier in the day, the risk of strong to isolated severe storms increases some. Stay tuned for updates on this part of the forecast.
Finally, the change in temperature. First we will have the heat, then the showers/storms, and by the nighttime hours, the change in temperature as the front passes. We will go from hot to cool very quickly, which will usher in an unsettled weekend. While this won't have a major impact compared to the heat and potential storms, it'll be interesting to watch the temperature drop during the evening and overnight period. This kind of temperature drop is uncommon during summer.
Finally, the change in temperature. First we will have the heat, then the showers/storms, and by the nighttime hours, the change in temperature as the front passes. We will go from hot to cool very quickly, which will usher in an unsettled weekend. While this won't have a major impact compared to the heat and potential storms, it'll be interesting to watch the temperature drop during the evening and overnight period. This kind of temperature drop is uncommon during summer.
This is more in the weeds, but above is a high resolution NAM sounding for Friday afternoon in the Hartford area. While there is a fair amount of CAPE for thunderstorms and sufficient moisture, there isn't a lot of shear to allow for organization of storms. We'll see if this changes as we get closer to Friday.
Saturday & Sunday
This is a tricky, but likely unsettled part of the forecast. After the backdoor cold front Friday, we will cool down dramatically. Highs will go from well above normal to well below normal in 24 hours. Saturday looks like a bad day for outdoor activities, with highs struggling to reach 60 and rain showers given the changing upper air flow.
Sunday looks unsettled as well, and will likely have highs in the 60s as well. That said, we will have a cutoff low develop and the track of that from the east will be critical in whether we are warmer or colder, and whether we see a drier or wetter day.
This is a tricky, but likely unsettled part of the forecast. After the backdoor cold front Friday, we will cool down dramatically. Highs will go from well above normal to well below normal in 24 hours. Saturday looks like a bad day for outdoor activities, with highs struggling to reach 60 and rain showers given the changing upper air flow.
Sunday looks unsettled as well, and will likely have highs in the 60s as well. That said, we will have a cutoff low develop and the track of that from the east will be critical in whether we are warmer or colder, and whether we see a drier or wetter day.
Above: the GFS depiction of rain late Friday through the weekend. It doesn't look like a washout, but we need to see what the short term trends are. If it's wetter, the temperatures may be even colder. The GFS hints at this, but I'm not ready to go that far yet.
The Dailies
Thursday: Mostly sunny and hot inland. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Highs in the mid to upper 70s at the shore.
Friday: Hazy, hot, and humid, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. Highs in the low to mid 90s inland. Highs in the low to mid 80s at the shore. Chance of rain 60%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, much cooler, with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 40%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
The Dailies
Thursday: Mostly sunny and hot inland. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Highs in the mid to upper 70s at the shore.
Friday: Hazy, hot, and humid, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. Highs in the low to mid 90s inland. Highs in the low to mid 80s at the shore. Chance of rain 60%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, much cooler, with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 40%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
