Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
Like many of our weekends going back to last summer, many of us dealt with rain. Saturday brought a really poorly forecast overcast and rainy day, and while today was better, northeasterly flow made it difficult for us to clear out, though some of us did by the very end of the day.
The week before before Memorial Day will bring many of us our first taste of summer, with our first 90 degree day possible for some inland locations this week.
Like many of our weekends going back to last summer, many of us dealt with rain. Saturday brought a really poorly forecast overcast and rainy day, and while today was better, northeasterly flow made it difficult for us to clear out, though some of us did by the very end of the day.
The week before before Memorial Day will bring many of us our first taste of summer, with our first 90 degree day possible for some inland locations this week.
Above: the 12z Euro depiction of the upper level pattern Monday through early Friday. A ridge controls our weather until a trough comes through Thursday, bringing us a chance of storms and more seasonable temperatures afterward. Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.
Monday
We finally get a few days with mostly sunny and dry conditions. Real rain chances won't be until later in the week. In the meantime, we warm up starting tomorrow. The flow regime that brought us overcast and rainy conditions will move offshore, and in its place we see a ridge of high pressure settle over the region. That will allow for warmer than normal temperatures aloft to move in and that will translate to the surface. The caveat is that the coastal areas could still see sea breezes that keep temperatures a little cooler than inland--typical for this time of year.
Tomorrow should bring highs in the upper 70s to low 80s inland and a few degrees cooler at the shore.
Tuesday-Wednesday
The real heat starts to cook on Tuesday. With the ridge firmly in place, it'll be another sunny and warm day Tuesday with inland highs in the mid to upper 80s. Hartford or BDL could touch 90 if things break right, but most should be just shy. Wednesday looks even warmer, and inland 90s look more possible. It'll be sunny and dry, and for those of you that do not like humidity, it looks like this period does not have particularly high dew points.
We finally get a few days with mostly sunny and dry conditions. Real rain chances won't be until later in the week. In the meantime, we warm up starting tomorrow. The flow regime that brought us overcast and rainy conditions will move offshore, and in its place we see a ridge of high pressure settle over the region. That will allow for warmer than normal temperatures aloft to move in and that will translate to the surface. The caveat is that the coastal areas could still see sea breezes that keep temperatures a little cooler than inland--typical for this time of year.
Tomorrow should bring highs in the upper 70s to low 80s inland and a few degrees cooler at the shore.
Tuesday-Wednesday
The real heat starts to cook on Tuesday. With the ridge firmly in place, it'll be another sunny and warm day Tuesday with inland highs in the mid to upper 80s. Hartford or BDL could touch 90 if things break right, but most should be just shy. Wednesday looks even warmer, and inland 90s look more possible. It'll be sunny and dry, and for those of you that do not like humidity, it looks like this period does not have particularly high dew points.
Above, the national blend of models showing possible temperatures on Wednesday. The blend has widespread temperatures in the mid to upper 80s inland. This is the kind of signal where BDL could get a 90 day, particularly on Wednesday and Thursday. Image courtesy of Pivotal Weather.
Thursday
The heat is relatively short lived, as Thursday brings a trough through the region. We'll see the change in the form of a cold front. Thursday currently looks hot and humid, and depending on the amount of sun, it could be another 90 degree day. This is a day we'll be watching closely, as there are some indications that the ingredients for strong to severe storms will be present. Stay tuned. I would not be surprised to see a slight risk issued by the SPC at some point this week.
The heat is relatively short lived, as Thursday brings a trough through the region. We'll see the change in the form of a cold front. Thursday currently looks hot and humid, and depending on the amount of sun, it could be another 90 degree day. This is a day we'll be watching closely, as there are some indications that the ingredients for strong to severe storms will be present. Stay tuned. I would not be surprised to see a slight risk issued by the SPC at some point this week.
Above: GFS predicted dew points for late Thursday afternoon. We'll see if the timing of the front lines up with the potential severe thunderstorm ingredients.
Memorial Day Weekend (Friday-Monday)
We have suffered a lot with cloudy and rainy conditions, but in the wake of our front Thursday, it is looking like the holiday weekend will be a rare nice one! Friday still looks to be warm, but the dew points will come down sharply in the wake of the front. Highs will be in the 80s inland.
Temperatures will decline and hold around normal Saturday-Memorial Day, meaning highs in the mid 70s. The weather is looking quiet, with a nice mix of sun and clouds through Memorial Day. It's hard to be upset with that!
We have suffered a lot with cloudy and rainy conditions, but in the wake of our front Thursday, it is looking like the holiday weekend will be a rare nice one! Friday still looks to be warm, but the dew points will come down sharply in the wake of the front. Highs will be in the 80s inland.
Temperatures will decline and hold around normal Saturday-Memorial Day, meaning highs in the mid 70s. The weather is looking quiet, with a nice mix of sun and clouds through Memorial Day. It's hard to be upset with that!
Above: GFS depiction of dew points Thursday-Monday. We are hot and humid on Thursday but you can clearly see the front and a dramatic drop in dew points. It is looking like a seasonable and dry holiday weekend!
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Inland highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Shoreline highs in the low to mid 70s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s inland. Chance of 90 in warmest spots. Highs in the upper 70s at the shoreline.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Highs in the low to mid 80s at the shoreline (cooler SE CT).
Thursday: Sunny early with increasing clouds. Thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Highs in the mid to upper 70s at the shoreline (cooler SE CT). Chance of rain 50%.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s inland and mid to upper 70s at the shore.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Memorial Day: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Finally, there have been a lot of questions about how cloudy and wet it has been. We all know that we're running ahead of precipitation going back to last year, but the clouds have been lingering as well. I pulled data on how cloudy it has been so far at our two reporting sites.
Each site has two images. The top graph shows how cloudy it has been relative to climatology each month, with a report of overcast at noon. The second image goes back to 1950 and just looks at the month of May. You'll see that at BDL, it has been very cloudy. It has been overcast most of the year. Our May is one of the cloudiest in the last 15 years, but nothing comes close to 2017.
Monday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Inland highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Shoreline highs in the low to mid 70s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s inland. Chance of 90 in warmest spots. Highs in the upper 70s at the shoreline.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Highs in the low to mid 80s at the shoreline (cooler SE CT).
Thursday: Sunny early with increasing clouds. Thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Highs in the mid to upper 70s at the shoreline (cooler SE CT). Chance of rain 50%.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s inland and mid to upper 70s at the shore.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Memorial Day: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Finally, there have been a lot of questions about how cloudy and wet it has been. We all know that we're running ahead of precipitation going back to last year, but the clouds have been lingering as well. I pulled data on how cloudy it has been so far at our two reporting sites.
Each site has two images. The top graph shows how cloudy it has been relative to climatology each month, with a report of overcast at noon. The second image goes back to 1950 and just looks at the month of May. You'll see that at BDL, it has been very cloudy. It has been overcast most of the year. Our May is one of the cloudiest in the last 15 years, but nothing comes close to 2017.
For Bridgeport, May has been even worse, with 63% of the days being overcast at noon. Part of this is the marine influence being particularly strong this year, but as you can see, we are far more cloudy than normal. Even with partial data, this May is the cloudiest on record using this data point.
Fortunately for us, summer is approaching, and with it our sunniest time of year.
With May winding down, I plan to write a summer outlook and hurricane season outlook. Provided I have time, expect the summer outlook sometime during Memorial Day Weekend and the hurricane season outlook by June 1, the official start of the season.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
With May winding down, I plan to write a summer outlook and hurricane season outlook. Provided I have time, expect the summer outlook sometime during Memorial Day Weekend and the hurricane season outlook by June 1, the official start of the season.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
