Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
It has been quite a weekend, with our first severe weather event of the season. The boundary responsible for our rainfall this weekend is hung up over the region, and will remain in a position nearly ideal for significant rainfall over the next week as a cutoff low pressure system meanders east this week in a stagnant omega block pattern. The forecast here is easy, but tough, as some spots are likely to get rainfall that could lead to flooding, while others get rain, but nothing particularly out of the ordinary. Let's dive in.
It has been quite a weekend, with our first severe weather event of the season. The boundary responsible for our rainfall this weekend is hung up over the region, and will remain in a position nearly ideal for significant rainfall over the next week as a cutoff low pressure system meanders east this week in a stagnant omega block pattern. The forecast here is easy, but tough, as some spots are likely to get rainfall that could lead to flooding, while others get rain, but nothing particularly out of the ordinary. Let's dive in.
Above is the WPC forecast for the week ahead, showing nearly a month's worth of rain for parts of western CT.
Monday
First, the big warmth (relative to the time of year) from Friday and Saturday is gone for the next week. As the boundary meanders we are likely to see cloudy and rainy conditions dominate the week, and easterly flow will likely bring cooler conditions--though not as cold as we would have seen if this happened a month ago. Expect the start of the week to be on the cooler side with highs in the low to mid 60s, with the latter portion of the week with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Tonight we have rain overspreading the region, and tomorrow will bring the first washout day. Although it won't rain all the time, we will see waves of rain move over the state throughout the day. Rain will be heavy at times, and these waves are how we will get varying rain amounts over the course of the week. The models have favored various parts of the state, so everyone should be prepared as the models have ticked more aggressive lately on the potential rainfall.
Monday
First, the big warmth (relative to the time of year) from Friday and Saturday is gone for the next week. As the boundary meanders we are likely to see cloudy and rainy conditions dominate the week, and easterly flow will likely bring cooler conditions--though not as cold as we would have seen if this happened a month ago. Expect the start of the week to be on the cooler side with highs in the low to mid 60s, with the latter portion of the week with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Tonight we have rain overspreading the region, and tomorrow will bring the first washout day. Although it won't rain all the time, we will see waves of rain move over the state throughout the day. Rain will be heavy at times, and these waves are how we will get varying rain amounts over the course of the week. The models have favored various parts of the state, so everyone should be prepared as the models have ticked more aggressive lately on the potential rainfall.
Tuesday-Wednesday
Tuesday and Wednesday are washouts as well, as our cutoff low continues to slowly move east. If we can get rainfall that is generally light over Monday-Wednesday, even if it's 2-4" it won't be a big deal, but what My concern is that we could see training of precipitation in the state. That would pile up rainfall quite efficiently and could cause flooding, especially if there are any convective elements. That is something we will be watching closely all week. The Euro has been consistently aggressive in showing this scenario, with its latest run bringing over 6" of rain to parts of southern CT by late Wednesday because of convection and training. The WPC isn't showing much concern, with only marginal risks of excessive rainfall each day during the first half of the week, but I am.
Tuesday and Wednesday are washouts as well, as our cutoff low continues to slowly move east. If we can get rainfall that is generally light over Monday-Wednesday, even if it's 2-4" it won't be a big deal, but what My concern is that we could see training of precipitation in the state. That would pile up rainfall quite efficiently and could cause flooding, especially if there are any convective elements. That is something we will be watching closely all week. The Euro has been consistently aggressive in showing this scenario, with its latest run bringing over 6" of rain to parts of southern CT by late Wednesday because of convection and training. The WPC isn't showing much concern, with only marginal risks of excessive rainfall each day during the first half of the week, but I am.
Above: the 12z Euro depiction of rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday. Note the convective elements in southern CT. Below is the rainfall forecast as a result. The Euro is probably running hot, but I think we've seen in recent years that we should take consistent signals for big rainfall seriously.
Thursday
All the guidance agrees that by Thursday we are drying out as the storm system moves east of the region. We're unlikely to see temperatures rebound that much, but if we can get more sunshine on Thursday it could turn into a nice day.
Friday-Sunday
The end of the week is up in the air. While the GFS has us with just lingering showers as a boundary pushes any unsettled weather out of the region in time for the weekend, the Euro has another area of low pressure develop to bring additional meaningful rain through the weekend. We have had several Saturdays in a row touched by rainfall, and I am not feeling great about the coming Saturday being dry. With an omega block, the pattern lends itself to being locked in for an extended period of time. I'm not quite sure the pattern is going to break in just three or four days.
Overall, the large scale forecast is pretty easy. It's going to be a very wet week. However, the devil is in the details. We really need to watch for how the boundary sets up and the evolution of the cutoff low in the early part of the week. By midweek we'll have a sense of whether the end of the week will be wet or not. I recommend that those prone to basement flooding prepare in advance, but realize that the higher end impacts could be confined to a localized area anywhere over the next few days.
All the guidance agrees that by Thursday we are drying out as the storm system moves east of the region. We're unlikely to see temperatures rebound that much, but if we can get more sunshine on Thursday it could turn into a nice day.
Friday-Sunday
The end of the week is up in the air. While the GFS has us with just lingering showers as a boundary pushes any unsettled weather out of the region in time for the weekend, the Euro has another area of low pressure develop to bring additional meaningful rain through the weekend. We have had several Saturdays in a row touched by rainfall, and I am not feeling great about the coming Saturday being dry. With an omega block, the pattern lends itself to being locked in for an extended period of time. I'm not quite sure the pattern is going to break in just three or four days.
Overall, the large scale forecast is pretty easy. It's going to be a very wet week. However, the devil is in the details. We really need to watch for how the boundary sets up and the evolution of the cutoff low in the early part of the week. By midweek we'll have a sense of whether the end of the week will be wet or not. I recommend that those prone to basement flooding prepare in advance, but realize that the higher end impacts could be confined to a localized area anywhere over the next few days.
Above: the 18z GFS depicting some lingering showers followed by clearing during the weekend. This is radically different from the 18z Euro, which has an area of low pressure develop off the coast and bring rain Friday and Saturday.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain, heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 100%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain, heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 80%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain, heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 80%.
Thursday: Partly sunny and warmer. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of showers 10%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 60%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 60%.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 40%.
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Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain, heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 100%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain, heavy at times. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 80%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain, heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 80%.
Thursday: Partly sunny and warmer. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of showers 10%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 60%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 60%.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 40%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
