Oh, have I got a great weekend lined up for you! Independence Day weekend is perhaps the most exciting of summer, as schools are finally out, the water is finally warm, and the mood of summer has lifted into full swing. All it takes to kill that excitement though is a badly timed cold front or sub-tropical system, and it turns into a cold wet reminder of what could have been. Thankfully though, this year will be the exact opposite of that, as beautiful sunshine and comfortable temps will be the rule for this weekend.
 
Before we can get to the weekend, we have to get through tomorrow first, which will be the most volatile day of the forecast period as an unseasonably strong shortwave enters from the lakes. Increasing instability throughout the day should lead to coverage of showers and thunderstorms breaking out in the afternoon hours from west to east, and then sliding across the state and gradually weakening throughout the evening.  Some storms could become severe, with small hail and strong winds being the most likely impacts. Best chance of severe storms will be in the western portion of the state, where the SPC has posted a Marginal risk for severe storms. 

Here's a simulated radar progression for tomorrow afternoon and evening, with images at 2 PM, 5 PM, 8 PM and 2 AM. While the placement of the storms cannot be exact, it gives a general idea of the timing of the line.

The shortwave slides to our east tomorrow evening, setting us up for an incredible weekend of sunshine. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Saturday, the low to mid 80s on Sunday, and the mid to upper 80s on Monday, with the shore seeing the lower end of those ranges and the interior seeing the higher end. Skies will be mostly sunny throughout the weekend, and the humidity will not be oppressive. All in all, a perfect holiday weekend for the beach, the pool, golf, hiking, or whatever other outdoor activities you enjoy. Get out there!
 
Looking ahead into next week, the Euro keeps high pressure over us and builds above normal temperatures into the area by mid-week next week, while the GFS brings in another round of low pressure and brings some rain to the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Will include a slight chance of precipitation in the forecast to account for this possibility, but as of right now am leaning towards a dry forecast.
 
Here are the dailies:
 
Friday: A chance of showers in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
 
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
 
Tuesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
 
Wednesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
 
The SCW Team wishes you a wonderful weekend and a happy Independence Day! As always, thanks for reading. -SA

Not a terribly complex forecast this week.  Two cold fronts will bring shower and thunderstorm chances- one later tonight and one towards the end of the week.

Tonight: An approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the southwestern part of the state, around the midnight hour.  Otherwise, expect a muggy night, with a chance for a pop-up shower just about anywhere.  Low temperatures will be in the 60s statewide.

Tomorrow: Instability aloft and the fact that the cold front will stall as it encounters resistance near the coast will keep the chances of showers and thunderstorms going.  Hi-res short term models are generally showing a chance around midday across the west, then a secondary chance in those areas around the evening rush hour, with perhaps a more concentrated line across the east late in the afternoon.  With mostly cloudy skies, temperatures should be fairly uniform throughout the state, with highs in the 80-85 degree range.

Tomorrow Night and Thursday: We clear out behind the front.  Low temperatures should range from the upper 50s to mid 60s and highs should be in the 80 to 85 degree range- very uniform, since a light sea breeze should develop along the shores.

Longer Term: The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will come right at the beginning of the long term period.  While it is impossible to try to time lines of showers and thunderstorms this far out, the general timing should be focused on late afternoon in the west, and around midnight in the east.  Look for high temperatures to be uniform again on Friday, around 80 degrees, since clouds could limit heating in the west and the normally cooler areas in the Northeast will have more hours of sun.

The rest of the long term should be largely quiet. High pressure should be in control and there really are no precipitation threats through the rest of the long term period.  As far as temperatures, we're expecting highs to be 80-85 on Saturday, and around 80 through the rest of the long term.

Looking further out into the long range, there are still no signs of a pattern that would support a large, long-lived, extreme warm up.  There are some model hints of a legitimate heat wave in the July 7 to 9 time frame.  However, after that, it's more of the same with just normal temperatures.  There are also some hints of a more stormy pattern trying to develop through the long range, which would be welcome, because we need the rain.

Here is a look at the two frontal systems slated to affect the state this week in graphical format.  First, let's take a look at the front about to affect the state later tonight into tomorrow. 

You can see here that with the main line of storms along the front, Northeastern Connecticut gets little or nothing.  However, they may do better with tomorrow's round of storms.  Finally, let's look at the frontal system slated to affect the state on Friday.

Going verbatim by this map, it would be the Southeast that gets shafted.  I don't like to pinpoint where lines of storms will set up four days out.  However, that map's presentation would make sense, especially because there could be some onshore flow in Southeastern Connecticut making the air more stable.  Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!
​-GP!

Hello all,

This forecast will be short and sweet, as we continue to enjoy this stretch of quiet weather. The week ahead looks mostly dry, though there are rain chances as a front reaches the region and is slow to exit during the middle of the week. 

Monday
Tomorrow looks like another beautiful day, with mostly sunny conditions for the majority of the day and increasing clouds toward the late afternoon and evening hours. There is a very slight chance of showers, but as you will see in this forecast, I lean toward the drier end of the spectrum.

Tuesday/Wednesday
This period looks a bit unsettled as a frontal boundary approaches and takes its time to move through the area. Tuesday evening looks most unsettled, but I think there could be a chance of showers--some heavy at times--Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.  By evening, I expect the front to move through, which will usher in less humid and nicer conditions. To be clear, Tuesday and Wednesday do not look like washouts, but you should have the umbrella handy.

GFS simulation of Monday evening through Wednesday evening. I think it is overdone at both ends of the timeline, but I think the overall idea of shower chances Tuesday and Wednesday is correct. 

Thursday/Friday
Thursday and Friday are beautiful summertime days in the wake of the front passing. Thursday currently looks a little cooler and drier humidity wise than Friday, as we probably see more southerly flow ahead of another system. 

Saturday/Sunday
The holiday weekend looks fine at this point, but we should keep a close eye out on a potential northern stream system that could bring showers Saturday afternoon and a potential low to our south. Again, I'm thinking we stay mostly dry at this point, but stay tuned for forecasts later this week. 

First look at July 4th
For those wondering...first indications are that Independence Day will be dominated by northwest flow and no large storms in the area. Could we see nice temperatures, low humidity, and sunny skies on the 4th? I like our chances right now!

It's early, but here's the Euro highlighting the potential with nice 850mb temperatures, NW flow, and no storm systems in the area early on the 4th of July. Hopefully it's right!

The dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny skies and breezy, with increasing clouds by evening. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Some could be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
 
Thursday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. 

Friday: Mostly sunny and more humid. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 
 
Saturday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers late. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Thanks for reading!

-DB

The major event of the week should be a storm system slated to affect the area on Thursday.  Other than that, the week looks fairly quiet.

For tonight, with a fresh cold frontal passage and low relative humidities, we should be able to radiate effectively.  Expect low temperatures to range from 50 to 55 in the coldest locations, to 60 to 65 in the warmest locations.

For tomorrow, expect plenty of sun and cooler temperatures than today, on the heels of the aforementioned cold frontal passage.  High temperatures should generally be in the 80 to 85 degree range, except in the upper 70s in the far NW hills.

Now for tomorrow night and Thursday... models vary with the exact track of low pressure system during the day on Thursday.  Depending on which model is right, the low could be anywhere from upstate New York to Southern Pennsylvania Thursday morning.  This track will have a considerable impact on our weather.  Either way, the weather will be unsettled on Thursday and it is not a day you want to be planning outdoor activities.  If the low tracks further north over upstate New York and then into Northern and Central New England, expect a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms with it.  If the low tracks right through the NJ/NY border and into Southern Connecticut, a tornado risk would come with it.  Finally, if the low tracks through Southern Pennsylvania and through Southern New Jersey, a cool rain would be more likely.  I think, at this point, a southern track would be more likely; however, not as far south as the extreme southernmost solutions.  Therefore, I'l forecast a chilly rain for Thursday, with some imbedded thunderstorms possible for the far south, but no severe weather.  All of that action should remain well to the south.  Most of the state should stay in the 60s all day on Thursday, except for a possible rogue 70 degree reading in the far west.  Keep in mind, if the storm tracks further north, temperatures could end up much warmer. Timing looks to be from about mid morning to about the evening rush hour for now.

Longer Term: Much of the longer term period is quiet, with the next cold frontal passage and thunderstorm threat not slated until probably next Tuesday.  In between, look for lots of sun, with high temperatures mostly in the 80 to 85 degree range, except cooler right along the immediate south coast.

On Tuesday, the next cold front will probably affect the state, with a chance of thunderstorms.  Obviously, it's way too far out to speculate on timing and strength of the storms.

A few notes on the long range... Many long range forecasters have been persistent in calling for a hot or very hot summer.  I have not.  I just don't see the mechanism for getting big, persistent heat into the Northeastern United States.  From DC to Philly that might be a different story.  Can it get hot, or even very hot, for a few days? Sure, it's summer! But will we get days and days of very hot weather like some summers? I doubt it, because too many things have to change and the clock is now ticking.

The first thing that would have to change is the ridging over the Aleutian Islands.  It isn't as strong as it could be in the winter, but no jet feature is ever as strong in the summer as it is in the winter.  Ridging in that part of the world creates high pressure over Southeastern Canada, which would favor cooler air in the Eastern United States.  

Another thing that would have to change, and this could be even harder to do, would be the placement of the Bermuda-Azores high.  Typically, when the Bermuda high flexes its muscle, it sets up shop near Cape Hatteras or Virginia Beach, and the flow around it is Southwesterly.  This acts as a heat pump, and brings very hot and humid weather into our area.  However, this high is shifted too far north this year- east of Nantucket Island.  Positioning like that creates more of a Southerly or Southeasterly flow, which would favor a deep marine layer.

Finally, let's say a heat ridge gets pumping and really bakes Philly and DC.  Typically, around the periphery of a heat ridge, a phenomenon known as the "ring of fire"- not the Johnny Cash song- sets up.  What this means is that in an almost circular fashion around the heat, hence the term ring of fire, showers and thunderstorms form.  So if a heat ridge pumped heat to our south, we'd likely get numerous showers and thunderstorms, which would negate the potential of a very warm air mass.

So can it still be a very hot summer? In meteorology, anything is possible, but the clock is ticking, and this is starting to remind me of forecasts of "vodka cold" that was always ten days away in the winter of 2001-02.

Now, let's take a look at some of the features that will be affecting our area in graphical format.  First, here's a look at a model's depiction valid midday Thursday.  

​

Although there is no red "L" painted on this computer-generated map, it's easy enough to see where the low pressure is- near Altoona, Pennsylvania.  A track like that would keep Connecticut firmly in the cold sector, and mean mostly a cool, steady rain.  Most models have come into better agreement on a track like this today.

Next, I'll give you a long range treat.  This map shows the progged pattern at 18,000 feet up (a level where a great majority of our weather comes from), valid Day 11, or July 2.

​

Notice the ridging, denoted by the red circles and plus signs, near Alaska.  Note even further how the ridging extends into the Western United States.  Over the Southeastern United States, where you'd want to see a big ridge to get hot weather here, you actually have very weak troughing.  This is not a hot weather pattern, and now the clock is ticking into July..

​Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
Quiet and dry weather has been ruling the roost so far in June, and it looks like that will continue through most the forecast period as high pressure over the area continues to hold through the weekend into next week. We will see a warming trend over the next few days as the high continues to hold and a midlevel ridge rolls into the area, with highs reaching well into the 80s by the beginning of next week. While there will be a cutoff low to our southeast that comes with subtropical origins, it is not likely to make it far enough north to impact the area. We return to seasonable or slightly below temps towards the end of the period as a cold front moves in from the west, bringing the only reasonable chance of precipitation in the period along with it as the cold front will likely set off a round of showers and thunderstorms with it when it comes through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cooler weather on tap for the end of next week behind the cold front.
 
Here’s a look at that subtropical system. Out of our way for now, but wouldn’t take much of a shift to have an impact on the back half of your weekend, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on it.

Here are the dailies:
 
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low 80s inland and in the upper 70s on the coastline.
Sunday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s inland and in the upper 70s to low 80s on the coastline. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and in the upper 70s to low 80s on the coastline.
Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and low to mid 80s on the coastline. Chance of precipitation is 40%
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
 
If it seems like there isn’t much to this discussion, that’s because there really aren’t too many ways to say it’s going to be a beautiful stretch of weather ahead. Stop reading about it and get out there and enjoy it! Have a great weekend!
​-SA