,We've seen generally calm and cool weather across the state, but that is set to change, as a largely unsettled weather pattern sets in, along with warmer temperatures and higher humidity.

Currently: Generally fair weather across the Eastern CONUS, dominated by high pressure currently over Southern VA.  A weak trough is along the immediate coast, from DE to ME.  However there is so little moisture in the atmosphere that this feature is unable to even generate sprinkles.

Tonight: We'll have opportunity to radiate a bit for about half the night, so I can see temps turning out a degree or two cooler than guidance.  Cirrus clouds stream in later at night, effectively shutting off radiational cooling.  Low temps should be 55-60- maybe a degree or two warmer in the cities.

Tomorrow: Aside from a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the NW Hills most of the day should be dry.  Thunderstorm coverage could increase everywhere late tomorrow night, but not during the day.  Humidity increases.  Guidance temperatures of around 80 look reasonable, maybe low 80s in the CT Valley.

Tomorrow Night/Fri: There could be two rounds of thunderstorms that affect the state during this period.  The first, centered on late tomorrow night and early Friday morning, will mostly affect Southern CT, with the second, centered on Friday afternoon, mostly affecting Northern CT.  Temperatures should be close to guidance, generally 80 along the immediate SE coast to 85-87 in the CT valley on Friday.

Long Term: (the weekend and beyond): For Saturday, once again, it appears there could be two rounds of thunderstorms- the first, early in the morning, which would probably affect the entire state.  The second round, centered on the afternoon, would affect mostly northern locales.  Saturday's temperatures should be very similar to those of Friday.

For Sunday, temperatures should be a few degrees warmer- in the mid to upper 80s, except locally cooler along the immediate South coast.  This, combined with an approaching cold front, should lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms for everyone.

Heading into next week, it appears the cold front may hang out near the area and wash out.  This is consistent with a Bermuda High pattern, as the front encounters resistance from the strong high pressure offshore.  Therefore, there could be chances of showers and thunderstorms and lingering humidity each day.  There could be a fairly concentrated round of showers and thunderstorms during the day on Monday.  In addition, if the front really does wash out, we could very well see temperatures pushing 90 degrees! 

Tuesday should be generally fair- maybe the only true dry day of the forecast period.  There could be a rogue thunderstorm in the NW hills at night, where instability is higher, but other than that, Tuesday could be largely dry.  With downsloping flow, it should be warm and dry, so I'll go a bit over guidance, and call for highs generally in the mid 80s.  This should be good news for those with BBQ and outdoor fireworks display plans for the fourth!

On Wednesday, chances for showers and thunderstorms increase again, as humidity levels increase and another frontal system approaches. Again, guidance looks a little too cool for my liking- I prefer mid 80s statewide.  For now, will not try to time showers and thunderstorms on day 7, and just say there will be scattered thunderstorms at any point.
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​Looking into the long range, there does not seem to be any significant impetus for a pattern change.  Temperatures should be at or a bit above average (but no major heat waves), with frequent chances of showers and thunderstorms- no it isn't going to rain all the time or every day.  However, when you look at a long range prog this time of year and frontal boundaries are near the area, that is a good trigger for showers and thunderstorms.

Now, let's take a look at some of the systems lined up to affect our area, in graphical format.  First, let's look at the round of showers and thunderstorms for late tomorrow night.  

​

This band of showers and thunderstorms appears to be mostly connected with the sea breeze, as it is restricted to the immediate south coast.  Also, check out the moisture in the Midwest.  Pieces of this will also be pointed at the area.  Next, we'll fast forward to 24 hours later.

​

You can see this particular band of showers and thunderstorms affects more of the state.  And you can also easily trace the cold front, from Texas to Upstate NY, moving only very slowly Eastward.  That is why the weekend will largely be unsettled.

Anyway, that is all for now! Enjoy the rest of your week and Fourth of July weekend, and heed any warnings about lightning if you are at a pool, the beach, or a ball game.

​-GP!

Good afternoon to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
​
Today and Tonight

It’s a warm and very humid afternoon across the state today, with temperatures generally in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s. That combination, along with generally cloudy skies, is making for a rather muggy feeling in the air today, and has also touched off some showers across the state. Right now, we are seeing showers mainly in Litchfield county, but I expect to see additional development across the state this evening. Guidance has begun to suggest a stronger area of rain coming through the state overnight and then again tomorrow morning; given the current airmass, there is the potential for very heavy rainfall rates in any cells that do develop and flash flooding is possible in areas where cells persist for an extended period of time. The northwestern half of the state is currently in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, the primary threat is high winds.

Here is an animation from the hires NAM showing the initial development of a few thunderstorms, followed by a more widespread area of rain tonight into early tomorrow morning.

 Saturday-Sunday
The chance of rain diminishes throughout the morning tomorrow, and hopefully by the second half of the day we should see some clearing as a cold front moves through and drops humidity levels down to much more comfortable levels for later in the day. Expect temps in the low to mid 80s; cooler on the coastline and warmer inland. The forecast is almost reversed for Sunday; the day should start pleasant, but a chance of showers is possible in the afternoon as another bit of energy moves through to our north. Temperatures should be a hair cooler than Saturday, but still pleasant in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and humidity will be low. Overall, while there will be some wet weather around this weekend, it will not be a washout by any means and there should be plenty of opportunities to enjoy the outdoors!

Monday-Wednesday
Next week looks to start out unsettled as a trough moves into the region, bringing several weaker impulses through the state that will each touch off a round of showers. I’m not expecting any significant rain, but each afternoon from Monday to Wednesday will at least bring a chance of some scattered showers to the area. Tuesday appears to have the most widespread coverage as of now, with Monday and Wednesday focusing more on northern areas, but again, overall coverage will likely be light, with many areas seeing a three day rainfall total of zero. Otherwise, besides the rain, expect seasonably cool temperatures, with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s.

Here is a look at the showers for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday on the GFS. Wednesday's showers are currently modeled to the north of us, but I think there is at least a chance that we could see some develop further south, so kept low chance pops in the forecast.

Thursday-Friday
As the previously mentioned trough moves out, warmer weather returns to close out the week, with a system passing to our north. Currently, we’re modeled to remain dry, but firmly in the warm sector, resulting in another round of high humidity and warm temps. We’ll keep you posted as this system begins to come into range on the guidance.

The Dailies
Saturday: Showers likely in the morning, then clearing to partly sunny skies by the afternoon hours. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday: A chance of afternoon showers, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Friday: Partly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA

Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather.
 
We’ve been watching the severe weather and flash flooding potential for a few days now, and today I remain relatively bullish on the potential materializing today.
 
I expect today to be a multi-hazard day, with chances for severe thunderstorms over the course of the afternoon and evening as discrete (individual) thunderstorms and a line of thunderstorms in association with a cold front pushes through the region. In addition, with very high moisture levels and favorable flow along the cold front, a flash flooding risk exists as well. 

​Currently we see clouds across the state. It is humid out there as well with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. I expect conditions to gradually become more favorable for thunderstorm development during the day. 

​Currently Flash Flood Watches are up for much of Connecticut. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. Always remember that if you see flooded roads while driving you need to turn around. Right now, I expect the greatest threat for flash flooding to be west of I-91, but torrential rain is possible across the state as the storms move through.
 
In terms of timing, I’m thinking that we could see the first storms fire a bit earlier in the day, and everyone should be prepared for thunderstorms as early as noon. That said, I still think the bulk of the action happens between 2pm and 11pm, with a particular focus on the evening commute and rain continuing even after the line of storms moves through.
 
The SPC has much of western Connecticut in an Enhanced risk for severe weather, and it’s not hard to see why. I expect enough overlap of shear, instability, moisture, and lift to create strong to severe thunderstorms. Not every storm will be severe, and the threat diminishes a bit further east. However, everyone should keep an eye to the sky and radar.
 
In terms of the specific risks, I am thinking that high wind has the greatest chance of occurring. Hail is possible but not a main hazard. There is also a low risk for a tornado, but it is a non-zero chance. We have to closely watch anything that comes out of the Hudson Valley, where I think the greatest chance of severe weather currently is. If we see individual storms fire out ahead of the main line of storms, those discrete cells could be particularly interesting. 

HRRR depiction of the thunderstorm development today. Not to be taken verbatim, the short term/high resolution guidance can be a great tool when used properly. 

The high resolution NAM above is pretty bullish today. Looking at the soundings across the guidance, you see a signal for strong to severe thunderstorm potential.

​To be clear, I am not expecting a severe weather outbreak. Many will likely not see true severe weather or flash flooding. However, that’s the nature of severe thunderstorms. For those that do see severe weather or flash flooding, it will be a potentially dangerous situation.
 
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts! Hit the buttons below to join!
 
We will be on all day and providing continuing updates should they become necessary. 

Thank you for trusting SCW. 
​
​-DB

Happy Father’s Day from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
Days like today are my favorite. It provides us all with an opportunity to stop and reflect on our families and ourselves. Time is precious. I hope all of you have the chance to enjoy today.
 
The weather should (mostly) cooperate! This week is front loaded. We’re tracking the chance of showers early today, humidity today and tomorrow, and an active day tomorrow. That’s where our focus will be.
 
Today
We woke up to a foggy and oppressively humid start. Dew points across the state are in the 70s, which makes seasonable temperatures brutal. Now that we’re past midday, the chance of showers has diminished quite a bit. I won’t rule out a stray shower during the afternoon, but it looks like a good day. 

​Although we’re still dealing with fog and clouds, I expect a good bit of this to burn off as the day progresses. Although it will be a cloudy day, I think peeks of sun will be possible during the afternoon. Can’t get rid of the humidity though, sorry. 

Latest HRRR showing a mostly dry day today!

Monday
Monday continues to look like an active day. In fact, tomorrow looks like one of the few days so far this season that requires everyone to pay attention. We’re looking at a multi-hazard day, with an enhanced risk of severe weather for some and flash flooding potential.  
 
Severe Weather

​The latest Storm Prediction Center outlook has much of Connecticut in an enhanced or slight risk of severe storms tomorrow. What this means is that everyone should be keeping an eye to the sky and radar.
 
Now, in Connecticut, knowing whether a severe threat will materialize or not is a tricky business. However, looking at tomorrow, the ingredients for an active thunderstorm day are there. Right now, I expect sufficient instability (CAPE), shear, and moisture. Having a good forcing mechanism remains in question, but we will probably have enough to develop at least a line of storms, some of which will be strong to severe. 

The timing of the storms tomorrow is also a bit uncertain. We do know that a line is likely to form, but the question is whether we get individual storms out ahead of the line. If we do, those storms have the chance to be severe. Main hazards from storms will be wind, hail, with a low but nonzero chance of a tornado.
 
Right now, I’m thinking that the best period for severe weather will be between 2pm and 10pm, with a particular focus on the evening commute. Rain and thunderstorms likely continue even after the initial line of storms rolls through, which brings us to our next hazard…
 
Flash Flooding
The type of flow that will accompany this line of storms will be parallel to the front. That creates a flash flood signal in my mind. The National Weather Service has actually issued a Flash Flood Watch for Litchfield and Hartford Counties tomorrow. I think our southern counties (Fairfield, Middlesex, New Haven) should watch for flooding too. We could see training—the continued movement of rain over an area, which would lead to flooding.

​This is particularly important: if you see a flooded road tomorrow, turn around!
 
Overall, tomorrow has the potential to be a rough day. Stay tuned for updates. 

Tuesday-Saturday
Not a whole lot happens after our active day on Monday. The front is slow to clear on Tuesday, so there will likely be showers that remain in the morning. We will slowly see clearing.
 
Wednesday could be another day with shower chances, but I am keeping them low right now.  
 
Thursday looks like the best day of the week, with sunny skies and seasonable conditions.
 
I am hopeful that through Friday and Saturday work out for us, but there could be another area of disturbed weather that gives us more chances for showers. Something worth watching. 

The Dailies
Sunday: Decreasing clouds. Humid. Highs in the low to mid 80s inland and upper 70s to low 80s at the shore. Chance of showers 20%.
 
Monday: Mostly cloudy and humid with thunderstorms and rain by afternoon and evening. Some storms will be strong to severe. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 90%.
 
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers early, followed by decreasing clouds. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
 
Wednesday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
 
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
 
Friday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 30%.
 
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Chance of rain 30%.
 
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts! Hit the buttons below to join!
 
Have a great week!

​-DB

Good afternoon to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
We’ve got quite a few showers across the state today, with the southeastern corner of the state consistently seeing the heaviest rain throughout the day so far as a train of cells moves north off the water. Showers will continue for the next few hours before exiting to the north and east. A second batch approaches from the mid atlantic for late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Here's an animation of the progression from the HRRR.

Unfortunately, showers and clouds look to be the prevailing theme of the forecast right through the weekend. A warm front will lift through the area tomorrow morning, bringing warmer temperatures and higher humidity, but even once the front has passed the chance for a shower or thunderstorm is still present due to the very moist airmass that will be in place. Sunday will have a better chance of staying dry, but will still be warm and muggy, with highs making it into the lower 80s and dewpoints into the lower 70s. While the temperature will be quite a bit cooler than the heatwave earlier this week where we saw mid 90s in most locations, it will likely feel just as oppressive outside due to the high humidity.
 
A cold front then approaches for Monday. Guidance differs on the timing of the front, but I will lean towards a later arrival, as it is common for cold fronts to get “hung up” as they are travelling across central NY towards our area. Given the moisture in the airmass, the energy associated with the front should be sufficient to spark a line of showers and thunderstorms as it moves through Monday evening or overnight. It’s a bit far out to start looking the details for severe weather, but the SPC has highlighted our area to be at risk for severe weather on Monday. We’ll keep a close eye on it and keep you informed!

Here's the forecast humidity for Monday(the warmest day) and a very long-range simulated radar image for Monday night, both from the NAM. This is to illustrate the potential for strong storms and not to provide any sort of guidance to locations - it's much too far out for that!

For the rest of the week, temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal, with highs generally a few degrees on either side of 80. However, the passage of the front Monday evening should bring steadily decreasing humidity throughout the week, leading to pleasant, early summerlike conditions by the middle of the week. As is typical in the summertime, there will be some showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two around, most notably on Wednesday, but any precipitation should be scattered and relatively brief. Overall, it looks like summer has arrived and the forecast looks like summer as well!
 
The Dailies
 
Saturday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
 
Sunday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
 
Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
 
Tuesday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, slowly clearing, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
 
Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
 
Thursday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
 

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading SCW!
​-SA