Disc: It is going to get dangerously hot.  The question is not whether it is going to get hot, or even how hot- but now the main question is if and when there will be thunderstorms beyond ongoing convection today.

Currently: A warm front was currently near Sikorsky Airport, while a cold front was along the Delaware River.  This cold front is not exactly producing any cold air behind it, as we will be warmer tomorrow than today.  Basically, it's just a demarcation line for briefly lower dew points.  

Tonight: Ongoing thunderstorms taper off after sunset, with a loss of daytime heating.  Rapidly drying conditions, clear skies, and winds going calm should allow temperatures to fall into the 60-65 degree range, a few degrees cooler than guidance.  Enjoy it, because this is the last cool"ish" night for a while!

Tomorrow: Sunny and very warm, but it won't feel that bad, with low relative humidity.  See no real reason to deviate much from guidance temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

Tomorrow Night/Saturday: As the fabled "Bermuda high" sets up offshore, both temperatures and humidity begin to rise.  Temperatures soar to near 90 degrees statewide on Saturday.  The warmest locations should be along the I 91 corridor, with the coolest locations along the south coast, where a weak sea breeze may help a bit.  MOS guidance generally looks good, so it has been accepted for the most part.

Long Term (Sun and beyond): The longest, hottest heat wave since July 2010 is likely to have commenced Saturday and continue through the long term, especially in the I 91 corridor! At this time, I will be officially forecasting temperatures to exceed 100 degrees in this section of the state on Sunday, with some low 100s possible in the CT Valley, i.e. 99-103F readings.... In general, thinking is for highs in the mid to upper 90s statewide, a few degrees warmer than guidance, with 100+ possible in the I 91 corridor.

The heat continues all week, although it can't sustain 100 degree temperatures for a week in this part of the world.  But with high humidity all week, do not expect much of a respite from the heat.  Expect high temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range on Monday and mid 90s the rest of Nthe week thereafter.  The only chance of precipitation at this time appears to be later Wednesday into Wednesday night, for the 4th of July. as a dying cold front could trigger a few showers and thunderstorms.  In general, I went 2 to 4 degrees warmer than statistical guidance all week, due to MOS generally having a climo bias, plus 2 other things.  First, I feel the guidance is too "cloudy",  as guidance, particularly GFS based guidance, tends to propogate convective cloudiness too far beyond their usual point of dissipation.  Finally, 850 millibar temperatures also support high temperatures a few degrees warmer than statistical guidance.  When it's above 20 degrees Celsius (68F) 5000 feet up, serious heat often results.

Looking into the long range briefly, the big heat may continue a few more days and "reenergize" briefly before it finally moderates.  The moderation will likely be due to a reorientation of the Bermuda Ridge, which will likely place the area in a "ring of fire" pattern, which would mean slightly cooler, but very humid, and frequent episodes of thunderstorms.

For some fun, I decided today to incorporate my high temperature forecast for Sunday in this product, as Sunday will likely be the hottest day of the heat wave, so have fun with it, and let's see what happens come verification time!

Sikorsky Airport Bridgeport: 98
Danbury Airport: 100
Bradley Field Windsor-Locks/Hartford: 102
New Haven Tweed Airport: 100
Groton-New London Airport: 94
Oxford-Waterbury: 102
Willimantic-Windham Co: 102

Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great one and stay cool (and observe heat safety) this weekend!

-GP!

​Good evening to you from SCW!
 
Happy astronomical summer! Today is the longest day of the year with fifteen hours and twelve minutes between sunrise and sunset; that extends to sixteen hours and twenty one minutes of visible light. If you didn’t get a chance to enjoy some of that sunshine today, don’t worry; tomorrow will only be one second shorter!
 
Speaking of tomorrow, we should have another pleasant day temperature wise, with highs topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Should see mostly sunny skies to start off, but some clouds are possible later in the day as low pressure moves north into the area. Could see a couple of showers along the south coast late in the day, but I think most activity will hold off until the overnight hours and into Saturday.
 
For your weekend, we’ll start with below normal temps on Saturday as low pressure passes to the south and brings clouds and cool marine air in on easterly flow. We will see some scattered showers across the state on both Saturday and Sunday, with chances increasing throughout the day on both days, but I don’t expect showers to linger too long in any one location and I don’t expect the weekend to be a washout. Sunday is likely the better day of the weekend for outdoor activities as the retreating system should bring in warm air and humidity behind it and allow highs to get into the low to mid 80s, but still expecting some showers to pop up, especially in the afternoon. Could see a few thunderstorms on both Saturday and Sunday, but generally think any activity should stay sub-severe for now.
 
Here’s a look at the shower potential for both Saturday and Sunday.

Cold front comes through Sunday evening into Monday and brings humidity levels and temperatures down a bit. As of now, the timing of the front is such that we would see a mostly dry frontal passage, but should the timing slow down a bit, we could take advantage of energy that passes through during the day on Monday and spark a few showers and thunderstorms. Will include low chance pops in the forecast for now, otherwise, expect partial sunshine and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
 
High pressure then builds in for the middle of the week with normal temps and clear skies.
 
The Dailies
 
Friday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s.
 
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA

As I alluded to last week, timing was my only concern with the showers and thunderstorms in association with a cold frontal passage, and models had suggested a Tuesday frontal passage.  That frontal passage has now sped up to today.  Further North, a severe outbreak of sorts is occurring, with a tornado warning posted where you would almost never expect one to be: in the White Mountains of New Hampshire.  A steadier area of rain was over Western and Central New York State.  This could swing through the state later tonight, but more on that later.

Tonight: A stray thunderstorm is possible at any time, but the most organized area of rain looks to occur overnight.  Most of the state should get at least some rain tonight, with the SE coast POSSIBLY staying dry, depending if there is anything left of the rain by the time it gets that far east.  NAM temperatures seem too cool vs. reality.  I do realize that if steady rain moves in, the temperature should cool to the dew points, but NAM temperature guidance somehow lowers the dew points despite no real air mass change.  Therefore, GFS temperatures will be used.  It will be a warm and muggy night, with lows only 70-75 across the state.

Tomorrow: It will still be quite hot, but it will be significantly drier.  As is the case with summertime cold fronts, a lot of times the drier air will outrace the cooler air.  That, plus a downslope component to the winds should yield high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.  Dew points should fall to 50 to 55, so it will be more comfortable.

Tomorrow Night/Wed:  A reinforcing shot of cold air arrives, combined with the possibility of some type of coastal wave developing along a front that will be slowing as it encounters the Bermuda Ridge.  High temperatures should only be in the mid to upper 70s on Wed.  The NAM does not seem to think any coastal reflection exists.  Although I do believe there will be some type of wave, due to thermal differences and slowing of the front (and even without the coastal low we should have some chances for showers), I won't go all in, in deference to the NAM.  There also is some question IF there is a coastal wave how far north the precipitation will get.  (It is not impossible to see these slip SE, since the front is in motion).  Therefore, I think a period of at least light rain is likely for the SW portion of the state, with a chance of a shower or two for the rest of the state.  The far NE portion of the state may very well not see any rain at all.  Modifications to this forecast could be needed with time.

Long Term (Thu-Sat and beyond): Beautiful summer weather should dominate Thu thru Sat.  High pressure of Canadian origin will be in control.  This should keep storms, as well as hot and humid weather. at bay.  With downsloping winds and plenty of sun on Thu and Fri, I'll go a few degrees higher than guidance high temps, but then a couple degrees lower on Saturday, with increasing clouds and a more onshore component to the wind.  This yields highs in the low 80s on Thursday, then trending down a couple of degrees each day, to near 80 Friday and mid to upper 70s on Saturday.

A warm front may trigger a brief shower or thunderstorm later Sat night or early Sun morning.  Model guidance currently does not show a lot of precipitation, but you always have to be careful with warm fronts, since they come from moisture-rich sources and tend to bring that air with them.  

Sunday looks to be hot and humid, as we'll be in the warm sector and under control of the Bermuda High.  Temperatures could be tricky, as it may not be totally sunny.   Being so far out and not wanting to try to forecast exactly how much convective debris cloudiness could spill into our area, I'll just go close to guidance on temperatures.  Highs should generally be in the mid 80s statewide, except maybe a few degrees cooler in the NW hills.

A strong cold front approaches on Monday.  Since most of the precipitation is behind the coldfront (anafront), I wouldn't expect a lot of severe thunderstorms.  Even if the timing is not favorable for severe weather, a front with this big of a thermal and isodrosotherms packed that tightly suggests there should, at the very least, be some type of shower and thunderstorm activity accompanying the frontal passage.  In addition, with such a strong Bermuda high in place, there's always a chance the front slows down.    With clouds and showers around, and a much cooler air mass in place, guidance looks too warm for Monday.  In fact, it is entirely possible, if not likely, that most of the state doesn't get out of the 60s on Monday.

The long range looks to turn more stormy in general, especially towards the end of the month and beyond.  Temperatures look close to normal, or a bit above normal, perhaps cooling to near or below normal after July 4th or so.

Now, let's take a look at some systems expected to affect our region in the coming week. First, let's take a look at the potential frontal wave for Wednesday evening.  On this map, you can propogate the precipitation ENEWard at about 250-260 degrees.  You can mark I 84 as a good cutoff line for a few hours of steady, light rain, vs nothing at all.

The next map is the frontal wave scenario for Monday.  For now, at least, this does look to offer more widespread rain.  Also look at the classic Arctic high behind it... almost looks like a Polar/Arctic high moving in during the winter!

Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great week!

-GP!

Happy Father's Day from Southern Connecticut Weather!

An Air Quality Alert has been issued for the coastline of CT and Fairfield County. Sensitive groups should think about limiting their activity outside the next two days. 

Sunday
Today looks wonderful. As I said in my FB post yesterday, today will be warmer for most, with a slight increase in humidity. Today we're looking at sunny conditions with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland and temperatures a few degrees cooler at the shoreline (with the exception of SE CT where temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s). Things look dry through the evening. 

GOES imagery of New England at this hour. It's a beautiful day to be outside! 

Monday
Tomorrow we bake. Heat and humidity will crank up in a big way, and records could be threatened. I think Heat Advisories are likely to be issued for inland areas, so stay tuned. The heat index will approach 100 tomorrow, particularly in the CT river valley. Toward the late afternoon and evening, there will be an increased chance of thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. Keep an eye to the sky and radar tomorrow. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s for interior Connecticut, upper 80s to low 90s for much of the shoreline, and low to mid 80s along the immediate shore of SE CT. 

In addition to the above tips for staying cool in the heat, watch out for the signs of heat related illness as well. 

Tuesday
​After showers and thunderstorms during the evening hours on Monday, we start Tuesday with lingering clouds and humid conditions as a cold front pushes through the region. Things will clear however by afternoon, and humidity levels will drop. Tuesday looks warm, but not the furnace that Monday will likely be. This will start the trend for the week. Warm, but pleasant and dry. 

Wednesday-Friday
The second half of the week looks beautiful. The pattern looks to keep any real chances of rain away from the region, while keeping more serious heat and humidity to our south. Highs will be above normal, and it will feel like summer, but humidity should remain low. 

The Weekend
As you can see above, the GFS model tries to bring some showers in this weekend. Just like last week, I think that's overdone. For now, I'll forecast continuity with the overall pattern. Warm and (mostly) dry. 

The Dailies
Monday: Hazy, Hot, and Humid. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening which could be strong to severe. Highs in the mid to upper 90s inland. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s at the shore (outside of immediate SE CT). Chance of rain 50%. 
 
Tuesday: Cloudy and humid start giving way to sunny and less humid conditions. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s to upper 80s inland. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s at the shore. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s at the shore.  

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 80s inland. Highs in the low to mid 80s at the shore.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of showers 20%. 

​As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB

The weather will largely turn hotter, beginning Saturday and culminating on Monday, when heat indices will exceed 100 degrees in some areas.  However, after that, there could be more storms, with a possibility for severe weather by Tuesday.

Currently: A beautiful summer day in progress, as a cold front has made it all the way to Virginia Beach this afternoon.  Yet another cold front is over Northern New York State and Northern New England.  This front clears the region tonight, ushering in even more refreshing weather for tomorrow.  Behind that front, however, a Bermuda high will take over and gradually heat things up.

Tonight: Clear skies, low dew points, and lightening winds should allow temperatures to fall efficiently tonight.  Therefore, I'll go a few degrees cooler than guidance.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s, with even a reading or two below 50 possible in the NW Hills.

Tomorrow: A blend of guidance will work well, a spectacular day, with plenty of sun and a few passing clouds from time to time.  High temperatures should generally be a couple of degrees above 70.  A few locations in the NW hills may stay in the 60s!

Tomorrow Night/Saturday: Sunshine abounds on Saturday, with a warming trend.  In general, guidance looks decent, but with a warming air mass, I'll go with the warmer end of guidance.  This yields highs in the low 80s.

Long Term: Sunday and beyond: For Sunday, the Bermuda High becomes more assertive and temperatures will continue to rise.  So we go a few degrees warmer than Saturday, now into the middle 80s.

Monday will be the hottest day of the period, as temperatures really soar.  In addition, the humidity will increase on a strong return flow.  The warmest locations should see heat indices reach 100 degrees.  It could become dangerous for those who work outside, so take appropriate cautions... stay hydrated, wear light-colored, loose-fitting clothing, and try not to do too many strenuous activities.  Also avoid prolonged exposure to the sun, if it all possible.  I don't really want to go "all out" on temperatures just yet, but it is time to consider going a degree or so above guidance, so I'll call for highs in the low 90s across the state.  Some areas along the immediate SE coast may stay in the 80s, but sea breeze influence should be limited.

On Tuesday, a strong cold front approaches.  Although I do not like to try to say that any given day is a shoo-in for widespread severe weather on Day 5, since this is Connecticut and not Kansas, one has to like the setup by simply taking a glance at what I see.  CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) should be off the charts, given dew point temperatures, and at this point, the timing of the line of storms (late afternoon) looks just about perfect.  So while I do not want to jump in and say that there will be a severe weather outbreak on Tuesday, it looks as good as it can from this point in time.  It is also too early to look at any other convective indices at this point, since they'll probably change significantly anyway, but when I reassess this on Monday afternoon, I'll be able to get a better grasp of everything.  Temperatures on Tuesday will be tricky, due to the timing of the storm.  850 temperatures are the same as Monday, if not a tick warmer.  However, the dew point temperatures will be a bit higher, which usually translates to surface temperatures being a degree or two lower.  In addition, if someone is forecasting clouds and thunderstorms to arrive in the afternoon, we also have to be consistent, and forecast our temperatures accordingly.  So I'll call for temperatures a few degrees cooler than those of Monday.  This is still a coupe of degrees warmer than guidance, since guidance at this time generally gets tempered one way or another by climatology.  So I'll call for highs within a few degrees of 90 on Tuesday.

For Wednesday and Thursday, dew points should be much lower, so it should feel much better outside.  The W-NW wind directions suggests a good setup for downsloping type weather.  Model guidance temperatures typically do not handle this very well, especially 6-7 days out.  Therefore, I raised guidance temperatures by 3-5 degrees.  This yields highs of 80-85 degrees on Wednesday and mid to upper 80s on Thursday.

As of this writing, the long range looks to feature temperatures at or just a bit above normal.  The storminess should probably take a break for a while, but my hunch is we turn very stormy again before month's end.  Now, let's take a look at some of the weather systems that will affect our region.  Since there is really only one significant precipitation event during this period, I'll add a map (and explanation) for Monday's surface temperatures, since that is a significant weather event this week.  So, let's take a look at Monday's temperatures first.

​

This map is only valid 1 PM on Monday, so temperatures actually have another couple hours to rise.  Notice how the 90s extend all the way into Maine! And yes, those are 100s in Virginia! Next, let's take a look at the cold front and line of thunderstorms slated to affect the state on Tuesday.

​

You can trace the front on this map by following the 570 thickness line.  Notice the front is basically along I 90 just before dusk.  Squall lines typically precede frontal passages by about 100-150 miles.  This timing is nearly perfect- coincident with the heating of the day- for Connecticut to see strong to severe thunderstorms.  So that's one factor that is favorable, and we'll examine it more closely on Monday.  Have a great weekend and see everyone on Monday!

​-GP!