, fThe well-advertised more typical summer weather pattern has kicked in.  Now that we've gotten that out of the way, the next thing to do will be to predict temperatures correctly and correctly predict the various waves that may (or may not) bring thunderstorms to the area.  The second of these tasks is more daunting than the first.

Currently: A very weak cold front is moving through the Eastern Great Lakes right now.  This front approaches tonight.  Most models keep the area dry, but we do have to keep an eye on ongoing convection over E PA.  I'll address that in the next section.

Tonight: Convection associated with the weak cold front over E PA approaches later tonight.  For now, I feel the best way to call it is just a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly along the I 84 corridor and points north.  A rogue shower could make it a tier south and east of there, but there should be nothing at all generally along a line East of New Haven and south of I 84 (most of SE CT).   As far as temperatures, guidance is in pretty good agreement, and a night like tonight is not a night to really argue with a guidance consensus, so will stay close to most guidance, and call for lows in the mid 60s in most places.

Tomorrow: Another sunny, very warm to hot day.  Guidance is in excellent agreement.  With plenty of sun and gridded data being a bit warmer than guidance, I can raise it by just a degree across the board.  This yields fairly uniform high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the state.

Tomorrow Night/Friday: Again, not a whole lot going on.  For now, I'll keep Friday's forecast dry.  A very weak impulse (even weaker than tonight's), approaches the area tomorrow night.  This system has literally no moisture to work with, and right now, feel chances of anything happening are too low to mention in the forecast.  Precipitation from the next, stronger system, should not reach the area yet.  So we'll play it dry.  For temperatures, generally more of the same, regarding guidance vs reality and the like.  However, the air mass aloft is a degree or so warmer on Friday.  Someone along the I 91 corridor may make a run at 90.

Long term- the weekend and beyond: Two systems affect the area during this period.  The first system of concern is over the weekend.  There are three chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.  The first comes Later Friday night into Saturday morning, with a warm front.  A cold front then approaches the area later Saturday, before stalling near the area.  This should be the focal point for more showers and thunderstorms later in the day Saturday, and then another diurnally-driven (heat of the day) round of storms on Sunday.  This generally leaves relatively fair weather Saturday night.  However, with a warm air mass in place and a frontal system nearby, you can never rule out the chance of a shower and/or thunderstorm at any time.  

It should be noted that the GFS is fairly dry through this entire time, with just drips and drabs.  It should also be noted that the GFS was dry for yesterday morning for most of my area, yet close to an inch of rain fell.  So the GFS precipitation algorithms should be taken with a rather large grain of salt, especially in convective environments. 

The next system of concern is a cold front later Tuesday.  Again, the GFS precipitation algorithms are only depicting drips and drabs, but I don't really use them too much for that type of a system.  Although I will note that that system has less punch than its predecessor, so it could have something of a clue.

As for temperatures in the long term, expect very warm weather with increased levels of humidity over the weekend, then a cooler, breezy early next week, followed by a bit of a rebound in temperatures.  Overall, my temperature thinking is something like this:

Saturday: Upper 80s
Sunday: in the 80s, a wide range from low 80s up north to upper 80s in the cities and along the south coast.
Monday: low 80s
Tuesday: mid to upper 80s
Wednesday: mid to upper 80s (maybe a 90 along the I 91 corridor)

Now, let's take a look at a graphical interpretation of some systems slated to affect the area this week.  First, we'll look at the weekend.  The map shown below is valid late Saturday night.  You can notice showers and thunderstorms moving southeast and exiting the S coast.

​ 

The next image is valid late Monday night.  Take a look at all the precipitation approaching along the I 80 corridor that extends all the way to Nebraska! At this time, most modeling sweeps this front through, so we wouldn't be looking at a long-duration event.  However, it should be pointed out that fronts have had a tendency to stall and with a large ridge offshore, it would meteorologically support a potential stalling.  If that happens, a return of our days of rain would be at hand! Stay tuned!

That's all for now! I'll see you again next week!

-GP!

​Good evening from SCW.
 
What a weekend! With warm yet comfortable temps and plenty of sunshine, it was one of those beautiful summer weekends that we all wish for. I hope you got to enjoy some of the nice weather, but the good news is that if you didn’t, there’s more coming down the line. While we’ll see a few periods of showers over the course of the week, that will interrupt long periods of fair weather, sunshine, and comfortable temps. Enjoy it, summer is here!
 
Monday
 
We’ll keep this one simple; A repeat of the weekend; sunny with warm temps around 80. Can’t ask for much better.
 
Tuesday
 
A warm front approaches from the west Tuesday morning and brings some periods of showers; generally looking for light QPF amounts, but can’t rule out a few periods of heavier rain thrown in along the core of the line. Temps will depend on the timing of the front; should it move a bit faster we’ll see highs hold in the lower 70s, but a slightly later arrival will allow for some warming ahead of the line and temps could get close to 80 in western areas with 70s elsewhere. Convection is a possibility, although I don’t think we’ll see any severe activity.

​Here's a look at the evolution of the front on the NAM.

Wednesday-Friday
 
Generally stable and comfortable weather for the back half of the week, although there will be enough action in the flow that the chance for some widely scattered showers will exist. As of now it looks like Thursday is the best chance for some more widespread shower activity, but amounts should remain light and I wouldn’t go changing plans right now. Should see highs in the low 80s Wednesday-Thursday and a few degrees cooler on Friday.  
 
Saturday-Sunday
 
More organized precip arrives for the weekend as a low pressure system moves south from Canada across New England. Still too early to be super specific but it looks like Saturday has the better chance for some rain, that said I think it will likely not be a total washout as the setup is more inclined for pop-up showers than steady rain. The other story for the weekend will be cooler temps as a cold front moves across the area, expect highs back in the mid 70s by Sunday.
 
The Dailies
 
Monday: Sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Tuesday: Showers likely, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
​
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
 
Thursday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
 
Friday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
 
Saturday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
 
Sunday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
 
Have a great week and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA

The wet, unsettled pattern will finally start to abate later Friday, just in time for the weekend.  Until then, we'll see more periodic showers and thunderstorms with lots of clouds.

Currently: WPC sfc analysis places a stationary front along I 195 in NJ, then WNW to the I 80 corridor in OH and IN. This frontal zone has been the source of action, as far as showers and thunderstorms go, for the last few days, and it will continue to be, until the more "traditional" cold front currently near Kansas City passes through some time on Friday.

Tonight: Lots of clouds and widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.  As you get closer to the front, the best chance of showers and storms is the further south you travel. Most of the action should be centered on mid-evening or so, between 8 PM and midnight.  Models are in pretty good agreement regarding temperatures, and mid 60s seems to be a pretty good call, using a model consensus.

Tomorrow: A pre-frontal trough approaches later in the day.  This will become the focal point for showers and thunderstorms across the Northeast.  As far as any severe weather threats go, I think the main threats will remain west of the state, across NJ, NY, and PA.  There are two good reasons for this: First, the pre-frontal trough will not approach our area until nighttime, which is not usually the best time of day to get severe weather.  Secondly, the state will probably never make it into the warm sector, which is usually necessary to get severe thunderstorms.  This all having been said, widely scattered thunderstorms are still possible at any time tomorrow, especially later in the day, although the best chance will probably wait until very late at night, or even early Friday morning.  Temperatures will be quite tricky, because they could become highly variable, depending on how much sun we get, and if we get any rain during the day.  For the purposes of this forecast, we'll assume both sun and rain are minimal, but that there could be a break or two of sun.  So I'll go with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Tomorrow Night/Fri: After any showers associated with the main cold front clear Friday morning, we'll finally see some nice weather on Friday.  A sunny, and breezy day, with highs generally 70 to 75, with a few upper 70s across the CT valley and urban centers.  Generally for temperatures, I split the guidance right down the middle.

Long Term (the weekend and beyond): A trend toward summer-type weather is in store, right in time for the summer solstice.  The best chance for any showers and thunderstorms in the long term appears to be later Monday into Monday night.  Temperature guidance looks pretty reasonable through the long term, so there wasn't really much reason to differ.  The only real change I made was to lower Tuesday's high temperatures a couple of degrees from guidance, as upper level temperatures do not quite support the robust readings the MEX guidance was printing out.  Anyway, that yields high temperatures as follows:
Saturday: around or just above 80
Sunday: low 80s
Monday: 80 to 85, maybe upper 80s in the I 91 corridor?
Tuesday: upper 80s, cooler along the South coast
Wednesday: mid to upper 80s

Longer Range: The overall stormy pattern could take a bit of a break for much of the rest of the month of June.  However, with a very warm air mass in place, it is not possible to completely rule out showers and thunderstorms, especially as any troughs or ripples in the flow approach.  However, there are increasing signs that the wet pattern returns in earnest during the first week of July.

Now, let's take a look at some of the systems slated to affect our area during this forecast period.  First, we'll take a look at tomorrow evening's frontal passage.  As you can see on this map, most of the action is well to the northwest of the area.  However, there is still enough moisture being signaled on the models to not go with a dry forecast.

Next, let's take a look at the system slated to affect the region later Monday.  On this map, we can once again see that the highest moisture concentration is not over the area.  However, there is still enough moisture over our area to warrant mentioning precipitation in the forecast.  Secondly, there is more back over Ohio, which is something to keep an eye on.

​

Anyway, that's all for now.   I'll see you again next week!

-GP!

Good afternoon and happy Father's Day from SCW! 

Mid-June has arrived and the official start of summer is right around the corner. After a beautiful Saturday, our Sunday has been mostly cloudy and a bit damp. Heavier showers are moving in as I write, and tonight should feature rain and perhaps even some thunderstorms.

​An unsettled week is ahead. 

Monday
Not too long ago it looked like Monday would be a washout. Not so much now. In fact, Monday is likely to be the pick of the work week as we are briefly visited by an area of high pressure. Not bad for the first day of summer vacation for the kids!

Things look nice, with seasonable highs and partly cloudy conditions. Note that this time of year, the average high temperature in the Hartford area is 80 degrees. 

​By the end of the day, we'll be watching for increasing clouds and shower chances. Any possible thunderstorm activity looks to hold off until the nighttime hours. 

Tuesday-Friday
This is a relatively easy forecast, as we look to be locked into a zonal pattern and stalled frontal boundary which will allow for repeated chances of rain and showers to focus on our area throughout the work week. This unsettled pattern doesn't mean sunrise to sunset washouts, but it does mean you will need to keep your umbrella handy each day. 

Overall, temperatures will remain pretty constant, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s on Tuesday, and highs in the 70s (warmer inland).

Some of the guidance is hinting at an area of low pressure forming and traversing the region near the end of the week, particularly on Thursday. We'll need to watch that to see if that becomes our wettest day. 

This week has felt decidedly more like late April or early May versus the middle of June.  One more day of unseasonably cool weather will persist tomorrow, then we'll get into a more typical pattern for this time of year.  However, as has been the theme this spring into summer now, the weather will be much wetter and more unsettled than average, with more days than not featuring chances of precipitation.

Currently: A current surface analysis places low pressure near Coney Island this afternoon,  A warm front extended from near Nantucket to Washington, DC.  A cold front was over the Allegheny Mountains.  The warm front will likely never clear the area.  However, until the cold front passes overnight, there is still the chance of a shower or even a brief thunderstorm.  In fact, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms was currently organizing over Eastern Pennsylvania.

Tonight: As mentioned, we'll keep a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast until the midnight to 2 AM timeframe, when the cold front should be moving through.  Temperatures are a bit tricky tonight, because they'll be dependent on how quickly we can clear out.  However, with fresh cold air advection being a definite, I feel a couple degrees below guidance is the right way to go.  Therefore, most places will get to near 50 or a couple of degrees above, with some 40s possible in the NW hills.

Tomorrow: Guidance is in pretty good agreement and does not look all that bad.  However, tomorrow is a similar setup to Wednesday, and on Wednesday, temperatures ended up a degree or two cooler than guidance.  Therefore, I'll shave a degree or so off guidance tomorrow, and call for highs of 70 to 75 statewide.  There is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon tomorrow.  Although most places will see nothing, the freezing level is quite low, so any stronger systems could produce small hail.

Tomorrow Night/Saturday:   Temperature guidance is in pretty good agreement.  Warmer air will move in, as high pressure transfers offshore.  It should be dry, in terms of both lack of precipitation and relative humidity.  However, high clouds will begin to increase in the afternoon, as higher humidity approaches.  Will just take a consensus blend of guidance for temperatures on Saturday.  Generally, high temperatures should be near 80 or a degree or two below.

Long Term: Sunday into the next week- Basically, we'll be looking for ways to say "partly cloudy, warm, and humid, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms:.  I and whoever else updates this page over the weekend (DB, etc), will probably need to get a thesaurus! The reason I say this is because there will literally be showers and thunderstorms possible at just about any time.  Right now, it appears Sunday night into Monday would be the most likely period of thunderstorms, but basically from midday Sunday right through the entire long term, there are chances of showers and thunderstorms.

The region will be located along the "ring of fire"- besides being a Johnny Cash song, this is a region, along the periphery of a heat ridge, where there is contrast between hotter temperatures to the south and west, and cooler marine air to the north and east, as well as just enough instability to spark showers and thunderstorms.

I do not feel confident in saying which days will be wetter vs drier at this time, especially beyond Monday.  Models (as is to be expected with a setup like this) are waffling from run to run.  It just appears there is enough warmth, humidity, and instability to generate showers and thunderstorms at just about any time, with diurnal (daytime) storms probably being more favored.

As for temperatures. Sunday through Tuesday should feature above normal temperatures, with the warmest readings likely on Sunday and Monday.  After that, temperatures probably moderate to around average.  But temperatures can be a bit tricky, as well, as areas that get thunderstorms, especially if they initiate around midday, would likely be significantly cooler.  Unfortunately, those areas could be very random in nature.

Into the long range, models continue to disagree with the strength and positioning of the Western Atlantic Ridge.  If I were a betting man, based on the way the pattern has been, I'd bet that it keeps us on the ring of fire for quite a time to come!

Now, let's take a look at some of the systems slated to affect the region, in graphical format.  First, we'll look at the cold frontal storms for tonight.  On this map, you can see widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over New Jersey and Pennsylvania.  They will head for Connecticut later.

​

Next, let's look at the period centered around Sunday night.  You can see showers and thunderstorms moving into the state, and check out the impressive moisture feed all the way down to Texas and even into the Rocky Mountains! This is a great map to use here, because it really illustrates how wet this pattern MIGHT be!

​

That's all for now! See you next week!

-GP!