Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

First, happy last day of July! After a mostly ho-hum summer, July turned into a very interesting month, with a transition from cooler than normal conditions to one of the warmest in our history—at least in the Hartford area. 

The City of Hartford reached 100 degrees. The City also had 9 straight days of 90+ temperatures. Bradley Airport reached 90+ for ten straight days—the longest heat wave in 21 years. This was truly a hot month, and although July didn’t quite crack the top 5 hottest months in terms of average temperature, the Hartford area did finish the month with the most 90 degree July days with 17. 

Now, we have been granted a reprieve. Rain! Much of the state has received much needed precipitation. That will continue tomorrow with more rain chances. 

Monday/Tuesday
Tomorrow brings the best chance of rain for the week as low pressure transverses the region. I don’t quite expect an all day heavy rain, but it is certainly an umbrella day. This unsettled period will last into early Tuesday, but things will clear out and we’ll break into nice weather!

Wednesday-Friday
​This part of the week looks sunny and nice, as high pressure dominates the region. I expect temperatures to slowly warm up again, but remain near normal. Unfortunately, with southwest flow, the humidity will remain. 

Surface high pressure dominates through the end of the week, bringing warmer temperatures and sunnier conditions. 

The Weekend
Currently, the weekend ahead looks a touch better than this one. We’ll have a chance of showers Friday night/Saturday as a cold front passes through, but Sunday looks nice right now. 

The dailies:
Monday: Mostly cloudy with chances of rain and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 60%. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with chances of rain early. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Wednesday: Partly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Friday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers late. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Saturday: Partly cloudy early with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 30%

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Thanks for reading!​

-DB

​Good afternoon to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
Interesting forecast this evening as we look at an area of low pressure moving up the eastern seaboard along the cold front that will arrive overnight, finally ending the heatwave that we’ve been experiencing for the past week. Guidance remains in good agreement on a narrow band of heavy rain developing just to the north of the low center along the front, but as is usual, small details in the placement of the system make a significant difference as to where this band of rain ultimately ends up. In addition, guidance signals the potential for a convective band of thunderstorms tomorrow morning, along with the ingredients for potential tornadoes.
 
Let’s start with the placement of the surface low. Models generally track the system just south of or directly over Long Island, with the band of heavier precipitation setting up just to the north of the low center on the boundary between the warm and cold sectors of the system. With high precipitable water values and a strong jet, wherever this band does set up will likely see quite a bit of rain, with values of >2” possible where the strongest downpours set up.
 
The question, of course, is where those downpours will set up. Let’s take a look at the guidance.

​Above are images from the GFS and UKMET for 8 AM tomorrow morning. The difference in the low placement is clear; the slightly further south placement on the UKMET means that the heavier rains largely miss the area, while the GFS trains the heavier rains right over the state. The midday guidance generally shifted south a little bit from the overnight runs, and considering that most rain events this summer have shifted south at the last minute (leaving us out of them), I’m inclined to lean a bit more towards the southern solutions. However, I do expect some rain across the state, with the heaviest along the south coast and in the southwest corner, where some enhancement is likely and very heavy rates are possible. Keep in mind that should a solution closer to the GFS verify, tomorrow will be quite rainy for all in the state, so definitely don’t make any outdoor plans if you don’t want to get wet! The heaviest rains should be in the morning into early afternoon, with the system moving out later in the day leaving some scattered showers behind through the evening.
 
Now let’s take a look at the convective part of the system. Instability along the warm front advocates for a band of thunderstorms to set up just north of the system, likely over Long Island or the south coast of CT. My concern with these storms is that low-level shearing will be enhanced with such a strong warm front, which, combined with the instability present from the system, could lead to a possible tornado. While it is nowhere near likely, it is not at all out of the question. As such, SPC has placed the immediate coastline in a Marginal Risk for severe weather tomorrow. Any severe threat would be in the morning; from sunrise until noontime or so.
 
Here’s an example of what this may look like tomorrow morning, taken from the hi-res NAM model for 5 AM tomorrow. You can see the enhanced cells in southwest CT into Westchester and northern NJ.

​To sum it up; expect rain tomorrow morning through mid afternoon, with the best chance for heavy downpours and possible flooding in the southern portion of the state. Some thunderstorms are possible as well, especially along the coastline where there is an isolated chance of some severe weather. The NWS has issued Flash Flood Watches for the entire state.
 
Behind this system, Saturday looks to be a beautiful day to be outside, with temps in the mid 80s and nearly full sunshine. Showers and thunderstorms return from Saturday evening through Monday as another shortwave passes over the area. Mostly calm weather then follows to start off the workweek, although some typical afternoon storms will be possible.
 
Here are the dailies:
Friday: Rain, heavy at times, best chance for heavy rain in southern portions of the state. Some thunderstorms are also possible. Otherwise, cloudy, with highs in the low 80s. Chance of precipitation is 80%
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s.
Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
 
Stay dry tomorrow, have a wonderful weekend, and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA

A generally hot pattern, with fairly frequent chances for storminess will occur for the next few weeks, as the overall upper air pattern is comprised of a large Bermuda type high and high heights across the Eastern US.  There will be a brief (but very noticeable) break from the pattern on Friday.

First off, for tonight, clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling conditions, despite the hot temperatures today.  Humidity levels were low today, and this is also conducive to temperatures falling quickly at night.  On nights like this, there is also a large discrepancy between temperatures in warmer areas, such as the cities and near the coast, and cooler areas, such as the interior and sheltered valleys.  Low temperatures  will range from the low 60s to around 70.

Tomorrow will be very similar to today.  High temperatures should be fairly uniform throughout the state.  There isn't supposed to be a big sea breeze, but a weak sea breeze should keep temperatures in check at the coast, with a light flow.  Highs should be around 90 statewide.

For tomorrow night and Thursday, heat and humidity will briefly increase, as the cold front that is currently over the Delmarva will by then be pushing into Connecticut.  The "thermal" portion of the front probably never makes it north of the Long Island Sound, but the humidity will, so expect Thursday's temperatures to be similar to those of tomorrow, but with more humidity.

Longer Term: Thursday night, the boundary moves rapidly back southward.  By Friday morning, this boundary should be over Virginia.  Interestingly enough, in a very hot pattern, a coastal low will develop on this boundary.  This low will stall the boundary, allowing it to slowly drift northward, and then eventually dissipate by Friday night.  Because of all this, Friday should feature periods of rain, with imbedded thunderstorms.  There could even be a period of very heavy rain.  The timing has come into better agreement, with the GFS slowing down and coming more into line with other models.  Therefore, it looks like the period of heaviest rain will be during the afternoon hours on Friday.  That being said, if there is no sun on Friday, this would mean much cooler temperatures.  For now, to be conservative, since the coastal low idea is not 100%, I'll call for high temperatures within a few degrees of 80.  But if the coastal low pans out, these temperatures could be as much as 10 degrees too warm!

Another concern with Friday's system, if the strong coastal low pans out, could be flooding, especially across Southern areas of the state, where very heavy rain fell yesterday.  However, due to uncertainty as to where the heaviest axis of rain will fall, and still some uncertainty as to whether or not there will even be a coastal low, confidence in widespread flooding is still fairly low for any location in the state.

The ironic thing is that by Friday night, the coastal low and frontal boundary will be washing away somewhere over the Atlantic Ocean.  High pressure will build in, and the predominate Western Atlantic Ridge will be able to reassert itself again.  However, temperatures will not be nearly as hot as what we've seen, since the origin of this air mass will be the Great Lakes, and not the Southern Plains.  There will be very weak sea breezes each day.  In general, high temperatures from Saturday through Tuesday will be in the 80-85 degree range statewide.  There are no foreseeable precipitation chances during this period, for now.

Looking even further out, the same Western Atlantic Ridge with a connection to Texas reestablishes itself so that by next Wednesday temperatures and humidity will both be much higher again.  Right now, the long range looks something like this: Another major heat wave August 3 to 7, followed by a cooler and stormy period August 8-11, and maybe another big heat wave thereafter.

Let's take a look at the GFS' perspective of the coastal low Friday afternoon.  Other than that, there really isn't much to "talk about" graphically.

​

In January, this would be a snowstorm, especially in the interior.... but anyway, there is a mature surface low on or just off the Delmarva.  The heavy slug of rain you see on the map over PA and NJ is moving NE and will be in Connecticut a few hours later.

Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great rest of your week! 

​-GP!

Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!

Another day, another scorcher. As we roll into the last week of July, we continue our big heat wave—the strongest and longest in years—and look ahead toward more thunderstorm chances. 

​First things first. Today will likely be another day in the heat wave for much of Connecticut. We’re still under a northwest flow regime, which will keep the humidity down. Although a touch cooler, most spots should still touch the lower 90s.

HRRR showing low to mid 90s away from the shore today. Image courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics. 

Latest GFS showing pretty toasty 850mb temperatures, but northwest flow keeping humidity at bay. 

The real story for the week is Monday, and we have two big headlines which I alluded to yesterday…

Monday—Big Heat and Big Storms
Tomorrow is the peak of the heat wave and could very well be the hottest day of the summer. Heat Advisories have already been issued for much of the state, as we expect heat indices hovering around and over 100 with dew points pushing 70--tomorrow will be oppressive and heat related illnesses could happen to anyone. Although the entire state is not currently covered by a Heat Advisory, I anticipate the rest of the state being covered by tomorrow.

The GFS showing the heat index in Connecticut tomorrow afternoon reaching near 100 for most and 100 in Hartford.

​Even if the entire state isn't eventually covered, take the heat seriously! 

In the interest of continuity, below are some of the graphics I posted yesterday on identifying heat related illnesses. As someone who has suffered and seen family suffer first hand from sudden heat illnesses even when not really exerting themselves, it is critical to hydrate, take breaks, and do everything you can to check on the elderly and others. 

850mb temperatures tomorrow should be able to support temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, especially in our urban centers. What could hinder the temperatures though will be cloud debris in the region. ​I think we will have enough clearing to really heat things up, especially in the CT River valley. 

Aside from the heat, tomorrow could also be the most active day of the week in terms of thunderstorm activity. With this hot and moist airmass in place, we will see a shortwave pass through the region, potentially sparking scattered thunderstorms. The CAPE will be there, and although shear will be lacking early, I expect it to increase a bit during the day. The afternoon and evening will be the target time period, and any convection that forms could last through the evening and overnight hours. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with wind being the biggest severe hazard. This bears close monitoring, and you can bet that SCW will be here to provide important updates should tomorrow turn stormy.

The latest high resolution NAM showing the potential for some pretty potent storms tomorrow afternoon and evening. 

Tuesday-Thursday
​The cold front associated with the shortwave passes through Monday night, and although you’d usually think that the cold front and storms would signal the end of our heat wave, not so this time. The heat wave continues, though in less extreme fashion, with highs in the lower to mid 90s in the warmest areas and lower humidity when compared to Monday. This heat wave does not go out with a bang, rather, it slowly fades away. 

It’s a subtle thing to look at, but over time, the 850mb temperatures begin to decline, heralding the end of the blowtorch and a return to…seasonably hot conditions.

Friday-Saturday
By Friday, we could be talking about *gasp* rain! I know a lot of you have been reaching out about this abnormally dry pattern recently. Overall, I don’t see a significant change in the overall pattern to bring us consistent precipitation, but Friday may just provide the opportunity for some rain showers for our parched gardens and lawns. I currently don’t expect much however as we return to dry conditions Saturday. 

GFS for Friday afternoon. 

Latest drought update. Now, we don't dry out like California, but this has been an unusually dry period by New England standards.

Overall, the main story is the continuation of the heat wave, which will reach its peak tomorrow. Heat is an underrated weather event which can have a quick and severe impact on people exerting themselves outside or people who are unable to get cool. Contact your local officials for information on cooling centers and if you see pets or children locked inside cars. 

The Dailies
Sunday: Sunny and hot. Highs in the low to mid 90s away from the immediate shore. 

Monday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s statewide with widespread heat indices over 100. An isolated spot could reach 100. Chance of strong to severe thunderstorms late in the afternoon and during the evening. Chance of rain 50%. 

Tuesday: Sunny and hot with decreased humidity. Highs in the low to mid 90s statewide. 

Wednesday: Sunny and hot. Highs in the low to mid 90s inland with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s at the shore. 

Thursday: Sunny and hot. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland with highs in the mid to upper 80s at the shore. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 30%.

Saturday: Sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Please like, share, ask questions and follow us for continuing updates on the heat and the potential for thunderstorms on Facebook and Twitter @SouthernCTWX. 

Thank you!

-DB

After a few years of absence, big heat is back in New England. Today will be the third consecutive day of 90+ degree temperatures for most, making this our latest heat wave. However, that doesn’t quite tell the whole story. While not unprecedented, this is likely to be one of our longest and strongest heat waves in years—which requires all of us to take it seriously. 

Yesterday was the hottest day in four years at BDL and in our capital city. Hartford hit 100 while BDL hit 99! Even our normally cool spots—Salisbury, Torrington, Putnam—got in on the action and reached the 90s!

In Hartford and at BDL, 7 of the last 10 days have reached the 90s. 

In Bridgeport, 4 of the last 10 days have reached the 90s. 

​The night was culminated with severe storms in parts of the state. Northern Connecticut in particular received storms that dropped torrential rain, small hail, strong winds, and quite a light show. 
​
Today we will see a day very similar to yesterday. Although Heat Advisories have not been issued, today’s heat will likely rival yesterday’s. Temperatures are already in the mid to upper 80s in the state.

Today we’ll see slightly diminished dew points due to a more northwest flow. In exchange, we roast all the way to the coast, as the flow cuts off the potential for strong sea breezes at the shore. ​

Although this high res guidance has cooler temps at the shore, I think this is overdone, and that most of the state will reach the mid to upper 90s. There could be another spot 100 today. ​

HRRR image courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics
​
In addition, we have to watch for a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. 
This is just the start. High temperatures are likely to reach the 90s each day, especially inland, through at least the middle of the week.

Today's Forecast
Hazy, Hot, and Humid, though not has humid as yesterday. Highs in the mid to upper 90s statewide with a spot or two possibly touching 100. Chance of thunderstorms late, some of which could be strong to severe. Chance of rain 30%. 

The longer these type of heat waves last, the more dangerous they become. Heat is an underrated cause of weather related illnesses, and can come on quickly for anyone. 

Heat Safety Tips

Images courtesy of NOAA

Thank you for reading this special update. Please like, share, and ask questions if you have them. I’ll be on call to provide updates on Facebook and @SouthernCTWX if needed today. I’ll have a full forecast for your week ahead tomorrow. 

Stay cool!

​-DB