Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
Last week I used the F word (fall) and saw a rebellion. Last time I said a week ahead was boring, we saw widespread severe. Learning my lesson, I’m saying neither this week.
 
The week ahead does look mostly nice though, with a return to warmer and humid conditions and chances for unsettled conditions by the end of the week.
 
Today
Today is off to a beautiful start, and will be a beautiful day. The sun is out and dew points are in the low 50s as an area of high pressure noses in. Highs should be in the low to mid 80s statewide today. If you are heading to the beach, especially in Long Island, watch for rip currents. 

Monday-Wednesday
The first half of the week is dominated by high pressure over the region. That should give us sunny and warm conditions. Each day gets warmer and more humid, and inland areas could even be flirting with 90 by Tuesday and Wednesday as we start to see more southwest flow bringing more warmth and moisture into the region. Overall though, no complaints. There may be a few isolated showers, but nothing significant. 

GEFS projection of rainfall over the region over the next week. The trend has been toward drier, but clearly shows the potential for showers and thunderstorms, especially toward the end of the week.
 
Thursday-Saturday
Things start to turn more unsettled during the latter half of the week, as the high pressure shifts and we see increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. Timing is unclear at this time, but I think much of the focus will be on Friday as a cold front begins to press into the region. Overall, a decent week. 

News and Notes
I should have done this earlier, but as we press on through the doldrums of summer, I’ll be doing a new section in my discussions. Things of interest that may or may not be related to Connecticut weather.
 
-The first day of August is on Tuesday. We are slowly coming down our peak temperatures for the year, and that begins to accelerate during the month of August. Nothing like September. 

-We're watching an area of disturbed weather in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a low chance of development right now. It is no threat to Connecticut.

As we head into August, we begin approaching the peak of the hurricane season. 

The Dailies
Sunday: Beautiful. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
 
Monday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of showers 10%.
 
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
 
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and more humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of showers 10%.
 
Thursday: Increasing clouds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 30%.
 
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
 
Saturday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 30%.
 
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Have a great week!
 
-DB

​Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
Cool and cloudy weather has been the theme of the week, and while we look to warm up slightly going into the weekend, the skies will likely remain cloudy and potentially unsettled as we track a low pressure system that, depending on it’s track, could bring heavy rain to the area. Generally normal or below normal temperatures look to continue through the forecast period.
 
Friday
 
Some overnight showers will move out tomorrow morning, leading to a mix of clouds and sun for much of the day. Temps tomorrow will be right around normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Could see a couple of widely scattered showers in the morning, but generally I think we will remain dry.
 
Saturday-Sunday
 
Low pressure moving through the Midwest into the Mid Atlantic will transition to the coast by Saturday. Rapid deepening will result in an area of heavy rain to the north of the low, and as the latitude of the low will remain relatively consistent, there is flooding potential for the area that gets into that band of rain. As is typical with strong, wrapped up systems, there will be a fairly sharp cutoff, with the distance between a soaking rain and a cloudy afternoon being minimal. For now, model guidance shows that cutoff to be south of our area, meaning that while we will see mostly cloudy skies and cool temps, we would be spared from a washout on Saturday. I do caution though that these systems have a habit of being volatile on guidance up until go time, and if what we saw last winter still holds, they like to come north towards the end. So, I will still maintain a chance of precipitation in the forecast for Saturday, highest along the coastline and lower inland. For Sunday, I will include a slight chance of showers, but the heavy rain threat is primarily confined to Saturday. Highs for the weekend will be below normal, with readings in the low 70s on Saturday and in the upper 70s to around 80 on Sunday.
 
Here’s a look at this coastal system on the GFS. Notice the band of heavy rain to our south; right now we are only in some light showers, but a small northern shift would get heavy rain into at least part of the state. We’ll keep an eye on the models over the next couple of cycles and update you tomorrow if needed!

​Monday-Thursday
 
The previously mentioned system will slowly sink southeast, but will remain stalled off the coastline into the workweek before it finally pulls away to the east. Therefore, expect clouds and cooler temperatures to prevail at least for Monday and possibly into Tuesday as well. A round of northern stream energy approaches for later in the week; the Euro brings it through on Wednesday while the GFS waits for Thursday into Friday, but both keep it very weak and the result is nothing more than a few showers, and given the lead time, I will keep a dry forecast as it could very well dampen out to nothing but some clouds before we get to verification.  Temperatures will be below normal for Monday, slightly below normal for Tuesday, and near or just above normal for later in the week.

Here's a look at that next bit of energy on the GFS.

The Dailies
 
Friday: Partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Saturday: A chance of rain, highest in southern areas, otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 30%-60% from north to south.
Sunday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Tuesday: A mix of clouds and sun, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s.
 
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
​

First of all, I'd like to apologize for really blowing the latter half of my last forecast.  It doesn't happen much, but my day 5 to 7 period was just awful.  I really thought the Bermuda high would hold tougher and keep the frontal boundary much further north than reality.  If I had been forecasting for Washington, D.C., it would have been a great forecast, but alas, I do not forecast for Washington.

Anyway on to the current weather map, a weak trough over the Delaware River was generating a few sprinkles near its axis.  This needs to be watched as light rain showers could drift into our area tonight.  Otherwise, high pressure over the Great Lakes was dominating our weather.

Tonight: Guidance looks a bit too cool. Low clouds have been tough across the area, and I really see no reason for them leaving as fast as models have.  Ultimately, I think low temperatures will be around 60, except mid 60s in city centers.  For now, I'll keep the sprinkles out of the forecast.  I think they'll die at about the Hudson River.

Tomorrow: I still think guidance is a few degrees too cool, but for different reasons.  Tomorrow will become sunny, as the Great Lakes high transfers east.  With higher starting temperatures than guidance and sunny skies tomorrow, we should be able to get a few degrees warmer than guidance.  So, in general, look for highs around 80 tomorrow.

Tomorrow Night/Thu: An approaching cold front could trigger a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm by later in the day.  The best chance of this would be North of I 84.  South of there, any activity should wait until night.  Temperatures on guidance look reasonable and are accepted.  This yields highs of 75 to 80.

Long Term (the weekend and beyond): There is a lot of uncertainty regarding Friday's forecast for many reasons.  First, there is uncertainty regarding how warm we get.  Since it does look like the Bermuda High may try to flex its muscle a bit again, I'll cautiously go a bit warmer than guidance.  There is also uncertainty as to the timing of the arrival of rain and thunderstorms with the next cold front.  Meteorologically, if I am leaning with a stronger Bermuda High, I have to be consistent and go with later timing of showers and storms, so I won't begin any precipitation until nighttime.  Finally, there is also uncertainty as to how far north the heavy rain makes it.  Once again, I prefer to be "meteorologically consistent" and go with the rain penetrating pretty far north.  Later shifts may need to make significant adjustments to this forecast depending on how things play out.  For now, I'll go with high temperatures within a few degrees of 85.  I will also keep the showers and thunderstorms out of the forecast until very late Friday night.

With everything trended later in the forecast package, I'll have showers and thunderstorms lingering into Saturday morning, ending from SW to NE from mid-morning through lunchtime.  This will also result in trending temperatures down on Saturday, although not quite as low as the GFS guidance has them: think mainly mid 70s, with a few upper 70s possible in the I 91 corridor.

The rest of the long term looks to be dominated by high pressure, which should provide pleasant weather right through the rest of the long term period.  With a downslope wind flow and plenty of sun, I'll go a little warmer than guidance all three days.  This yields highs in the low 80s Sunday, and mid to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday.

Looking out into the long range, I still think the overall pattern of stormier weather than normal will continue.  I also expect the Bermuda Ridge to begin flexing its muscles again, and a return to the proverbial "dog days of August" as we head into the month of August, with increasing heat and humidity.

Now, let's take a look at some of the systems to affect our area this upcoming week.  Since there really is only one significant system, and that is not progged until later Friday, I'll first post tonight's low temperature map from the GFS model, since some areas could get a bit chilly if any clearing occurs, at least by July standards.  

As I mentioned before, I think these are probably about two degrees too cool.  Even having said that, this map places the entire state into the 50s, and is quite chilly for this time of year.

Now, let's look at Friday night's cold front.  A couple notes about this map.. First, this is not your typical July cold frontal passage.  There is a strong low near Cape Charles, VA, and high pressure over Northern IA, almost a winter setup.  The GFS, depicted here, has a tendency to scoot these systems out to sea (incorrectly), and be too far to the south with them in the winter.  Since this is a winter setup, the GFS could very well be wrong here, and we may need to move that heavy precipitation shield quite a bit further north- just something to think about!

​

Anyway, that's all for now! Enjoy the rest of your week!

​-GP!

Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
Woof. My last few forecasts have been awful. Hopefully I get better this week. Instead of a rainy period, summer came back with a vengeance last week, giving much of Connecticut a heat wave. The ridge that brought big heat to much of the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest was strong and expansive enough to push heat into Connecticut. It should be no surprise that it happened as our hottest period of the season historically just passed.
 
When comparing years, I like to look at the number of heat waves and 90 degree days. It’s kind of like snowfall to me—unless something else big happens, it’s what everyone remembers. Compared to last year, inland Connecticut has had a similar summer, with one more 90 degree day than last year at this time. The shoreline however, has been much hotter, with shoreline locations having more than double the number of 90 degree days so far compared to last year. 

​Image courtesy of Brian Brettschneider.
 
We’re into the last third of July. Labor Day and back to school season is closer than you think! If you’re starting to long for fall prepare for a taste this week.

​Sunday
The daytime hours look pretty good. Today started cloudy, but drier air moving in has allowed for much of the cloud cover to pull back. I think we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds today, with a slight chance of showers later in the afternoon and evening and a greater chance overnight. With the sun breaking through right now, temperatures are already in the upper 70s in most places. I expect temperatures to be in the low to mid 80s today. Still humid, but not as bad as during the heat wave. 

​Monday
Tomorrow looks wet and cool. This will be a taste of fall, with temperatures struggling to rise into the 70s. The guidance is locked onto a period of rain overspreading the area tomorrow, with the heaviest occurring during the morning. There may be a few rumbles of thunder but nothing strong or severe. Guidance is a bit split on how much the rain lingers, but I would expect off and on showers most of the day. It’s an umbrella day. 

​Tuesday
Tuesday is a less wet version of Monday. The flow remains northeasterly, keeping us cool. I expect the chance of showers to continue, but diminish over time as high pressure noses in and begins to take over. It’s probably worth holding onto the umbrella, though I think most folks won’t see anything substantial. 

​Wednesday/Thursday
Wednesday is the pick of the week. High pressure takes full control, and with it, comes a real nice summer day. Thursday looks nice too, continuing the stretch of seasonable to below average temperatures and lower humidity. Enjoy it! By Thursday evening we are watching our next rainmaker.

​Friday/Saturday
Unfortunately, by Friday and maybe even Saturday we are seeing a cold front slowly move through the region, sparking showers and potential thunderstorms. Questions remain over how quickly this front moves and timing. Saturday looks more uncertain than Friday in terms of rain chances, and I’ll leave the details to future shifts.
 
The Dailies
Sunday: Mix between sun and clouds. Chance of showers late this evening. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%.

Monday: Rain, some of which may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 90%.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with lingering showers. Highs in the mid 60s to low 70s in the typically warmer spots. Chance of rain 30%.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Thursday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds and showers overnight. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain late 40%.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy early with improving conditions. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 30%.
 
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts! Hit the buttons below to join!
 
Have a great week!
 
-DB

 A Bermuda high pressure system will be in control of our weather this week.  This means temperatures largely above normal, with slight chances of showers and thunderstorms most days.

Currently: A weak, quasistationary front straddled the northern edge of the state, with weak low pressure near Bennington, Vermont.  This front was in the process of undergoing frontolysis, or the death of a front.  In response to this front, a thunderstorm popped up over the NW Hills.  Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible until sunset. High pressure also stretched from the Appalachians to the Great Lakes.

Tonight: There may be some radiational cooling, but most of it will be tempered by higher humidity.  As a result, even if I go a degree or two lower than guidance, lows should only be around 70.  A weak wave may trigger a thunderstorm toward morning, with the highest chances in the SW.

Tomorrow: Guidance temperatures look good, and they are hot.  With sunshine, after any morning storms an clouds clear, highs should be around 90 statewide.  There is a slight chance of thunderstorms later in the day, especially in the NW Hills.

Tomorrow Night/Thursday: Hot weather continues.  Really not much change to the forecast.  A small chance of thunderstorms during the heat of the day.  Hot, with highs around 90 statewide, although I could see the immediate SE coast being cooler. This time it appears the best chance of diurnal thunderstorms will be in NE CT, as there is a better trigger there.

Long Term (the weekend and beyond): Friday may very well be the hottest day of the forecast period and one of, if not the, hottest day(s) of the summer.  Once again, there will be just a slight chance of diurnal thunderstorms, with the highest chances being in the NE.  High temperatures on Friday should soar, reaching 90 at the coast to 95 in the I 91 corridor (N of the Merritt Pkwy).

On Saturday, a weak cold front will have cleared the state, so it will be slightly cooler, with highs in the mid 80s.  A warm front returns later Saturday night.  The entire state should be dry during the day.  However, late at night, heavy thunderstorms associated with the front should creep into the SW part of the state.

For Sunday, after any morning storms clear, humidity will stay high, and more storms will flare up durinf the afternoon and evening, and once again, should be heavy.  Due to clouds and storms, highs on Sunday should only be 80-85, but it will be a very uncomfortable 80-85, with very high levels of humidity.

Monday could be a legitimate threat of severe thunderstorms.  It will be quite hot again, with highs near 90 degrees statewide.  A strong cold front approaches late in the day, and this front should trigger a squall line of showers and thunderstorms.  Obviously, at this juncture, timing could go wrong, and timing is important with a cold front, regarding severe weather potential.  But at this point, it looks like a very good severe weather threat.

Tuesday will feature more pleasant weather behind the cold front, with just a slight chance of  a morning thunderstorm, depending on how long the front takes to completely clear the state.  High temperatures on Tuesday should be 80-85, and it will be a more comfortable 80-85, as humidity levels lower behind the front.

Long Range: There still does not look to be any huge impetus for a pattern change from what we've seen most of the summer in the long range- generally stormy, with hot weather when there aren't storms, and average or even occasionally below average temperatures on stormy days.

Now, let's take a look at some of the systems that will affect the state, in graphical format.   We'll do something a little different today.  SInce the main weather issue in this forecast period isn't until Monday, I'll post that as a precipitation map, and we'll highlight Friday's high temperatures.  This map is valid early afternoon, Friday, with still a couple hours of heating to go!  You can see all of the state is above 90 degrees, except the NW Hills, and there is little evidence of a sea breeze.

​

The next image will show the severe thunderstorm potential for Monday.    On this map, you can see a decent squall line for this part of the country, moving through western Connecticut, headed for the rest of the state.  Other showers and thunderstorms are still lingering in PA and NJ, and that's why I have a slight chance in the forecast into Tuesday morning.

​

That is all for now! Enjoy the rest of your week and stay cool!

​-GP!