Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
Some sunny weather today will lead to a threat of thunderstorms and showers heading towards the weekend. Unfortunately, we will have a return of the hot, humid weather we have all learned to hate by now. Sunday though, the wet and humid weather will move out, getting replaced by what looks to be a potential heat wave for next week.
  
Pattern
High pressure today will be replaced by an approaching warm front tomorrow morning. Following the passage of the warm front, Thursday – Saturday’s weather will be mostly influenced by the tropical air mass that will be in place behind the front. Depending on cloud cover, daytime radiational heating looks to destabilize the lower atmosphere these days, and provide the possibility of showers and thunderstorms. The GFS has a cold front passing through Saturday night/ Sunday morning, and a ridge builds in to the start of next week.
 
Wednesday
An approaching warm front will bring the chance for showers and some convective showers Wednesday morning. 800 mb vorticity maps indicate pockets of instability that could produce thunder, so for the commute tomorrow morning be aware of the threat of heavy rain. Following the passage of the front, a humid air mass will setup in the state. As CAPE values increase in the afternoon and evening, especially along the NW portion of the state, expect to see the chance of thunderstorms that could produce gusty winds and localized flooding. The NW corner should see the highest chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two late in the day, with the rest of the state running a lower risk for a thunderstorm. Temperatures should reach the 80s statewide, and expect humid conditions.

Thursday - Saturday
The state will remain warm sectored, and this means we run the chance of showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm every day. CAPE values according to the NAM seem to still remain over NW CT, meaning that part of the state runs the highest risk of thunderstorm formation. For the rest of the state, widespread showers and cloudy, muggy weather will plague the state. Temperatures will climb to the mid 80s, and this combined with the humid air will make for very uncomfortable weather over the next three days.
 
Sunday - Tuesday
The passage of a cold front late Saturday into early Sunday will mark a much needed change in conditions. There is a slight chance for showers with the passing of the front, otherwise we will see improving conditions. An upper level ridge will build in, and sunny skies will allow the state to get some much needed sunshine. Unfortunately, dew points will remain fairly high meaning it will be hot and slightly humid. NAM output indicates temperatures in the 90s statewide, not taking into account the humidity. It most likely will feel like mid 90s statewide, except the immediate shoreline which will feel cooler thanks to onshore flow. 

The Dailies:
Wednesday: Chance for showers and thundershowers early. Then, a chance for thunderstorms late. Humid. Highs in the low 80s. 70% chance of rain.
 
Thursday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Hot. Highs in the upper 80s. 50% chance of rain.
 
Friday: Chance for showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs in the 80s. 40% chance of rain.
 
Saturday: Slight chance showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs in the 80s. 30% chance.
 
Sunday: Becoming sunny. Hot. Highs in the upper 80s.
 
Monday:  Sunny. Hot. Highs in the 90s.
 
Tuesday: Sunny. Hot. Highs in the 90s.    
 
Thank you for reading and enjoy your evening!
 
-LD

Disc: We are in a pattern of slow-moving fronts , as a battle between unseasonably strong high pressure over SE Canada and a robust Bermuda ridge continues.  This looks to continue for the foreseeable future, creating a humid and rainy pattern for the area.

Currently: A stationary front extended from the Blue Ridge mountains up into the Susquehanna Valley.  This front has become the focal point for showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain.  This front passes through Friday, with some severe weather possible.  However, that front will then become the new focal point for more showers and thunderstorms early next week.

Tonight: A warm and muggy night.  Low temperatures probably don't get below 70 for much of the state.  Temperatures should be fairly close to guidance.  Used the NAM guidance for a background for temperatures.  Showers and thunderstorms should be scattered to numerous throughout the night, perhaps tapering off for a few hours toward morning.  Any storms could contain heavy downpours.  Since the front is still hundreds of miles away, severe weather is not a threat.

Tomorrow: I am cautiously going below guidance for temperatures tomorrow.  Guidance seems pretty aggressive, and those levels are attainable, given full or mostly sun.  However, it is curious that the same guidance that produces such warm temperatures also has fairly high POPs for precipitation.  Therefore, tomorrow's temperatures are a bit tricky.  Temperatures could spike up, then a heavy rain shower moves in and quickly lowers the temperatures.  I think 80 to 85 degrees is a good forecast right now, but there could be wide and uneven distributions between areas that rain and do not rain.  Storms will not be as widespread tomorrow, and should be more terrain and diurnally-induced.  Still, showers and thunderstorms are basically possible at any time at any place.

Tomorrow Night/Friday: There should be a relative lull in the action later tomorrow night and early Friday as a small area of subsidence moves in.  Even so, a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out. Later in the day Friday, as a fairly strong cold front enters this very humid, unstable air mass, thunderstorms will develop, probably in lines or line segments.  These storms will be capable of producing large hail and/or damaging winds.  In addition, given relatively slow steering currents and the very moist air mass in place, very heavy rain will also be possible with these storms.

Long Term (the weekend and beyond): High pressure behind the frontal system will build in and give the area a decent weekend.  It now appears there very well may not be any rain at all this weekend.  High temperatures should be in the mid 80s Saturday and Sunday.  The weather should also be dry for most of Monday, with temperatures a couple degrees cooler than those of the weekend.

Beginning with Monday night, the showers and thunderstorms should return in full force. Right now, some of the models want to concentrate a period of Monday night and Tuesday morning for the main shower and thunderstorm threat.  However, given the warm and humid nature of the air mass, the strength of the Bermuda Ridge, which would tend to slow frontal systems down, and the base pattern, I would find it very hard to believe that this period is limited to just a few hours of rain.  So we'll maintain scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

Looking into the long range, models are having a hard time resolving the exact placement of basic features, which is to be expected at this range, but the general theme is the continued fight between the Bermuda Ridge and any frontal systems that try to push into it.  This results in a stormy, warm, and humid pattern for the area.

​-GP!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
It’s muggy, it’s rainy, it’s cloudy, will it ever end? Things look to clear up a little heading into the weekend, but unfortunately next week we are predicting a similar setup to the one we had this week. The good news is it will not be as bad as this week, in terms of rain and oppressive humidity. Let’s get started with the setup we have right now!
 
An omega blocking pattern, centered over the Western Mid-Atlantic is the culprit behind our wet weather. An upper level trough from Canada has dipped deep into the eastern half of the country, and it is trapped between two strong, high pressure systems. Now with the help of the Bermuda High, this system over the Mid-Atlantic is pulling moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico up towards the New England region. Water vapor imagery confirms this, and this southerly flow is advecting warm, moist tropical air which has been responsible for the flooding in much of the Southeast of the country.

The high moisture content of the onshore flow, coupled with the uneven heating of the land, combines to form these scattered showers that fire up throughout the day. These pockets of instability are mostly small scale, and short-lived rain showers that at most could bring a rumble of thunder, with some significant rainfall. 

(Notice how the Bermuda high really influences the weather for New England)

​Tuesday
Expect similar weather to what we had today. Scattered showers and thundershowers thanks to lower atmospheric instability. Dew points will continue to be high, and expect low level nimbostratus clouds with the occasional peak of sunshine throughout the day. As temperatures cool Tuesday night, there’s a chance for fog to develop late at night, as a result of the cooler temperatures and high dew points.
 
Wednesday - Thursday
Heavier precip looks to move through Wednesday, particularly in the second half of the day. This is a result of the main axis of precipitation moving closer to the area, particularly in the evening. 850 mb vorticity maps show organized pockets of instability ahead of the axis, which would indicate heavier and more steady rainfall. There could be a slight chance for localized flooding, so be aware when commuting. This is expected to continue until early Thursday morning, where the heavier precip moves out. There is a possibility for lingering showers for the remainder of the day, but the weather looks to improve as we head towards the latter portion of the week.
 
 
(NAM precipitation output for Wednesday and Thursday)

Friday - Sunday
As our Mid-Atlantic system slowly trots itself out of New England, we can still expect to see the possibility for scattered showers Friday, but expect improving weather by Saturday. A drier air mass will move into New England, bringing dew points down and giving us brief respite from the muggy air. As the skies clear Saturday and Sunday, temperatures will look to climb to seasonal levels, and it should be comfortable weather for your weekend.

Monday
Another upper level trough settles into the middle of the country, and again it looks to pull moist tropical air from the Gulf towards New England once again. This similar setup would make for a wet and muggy Monday, but right now models show a much weaker trough than what we had this week. Unfortunately, models suggest that it looks to be a wet start to August, but we can only speculate as of now.

(500 mb heights indicate a similar setup we had this week, but less potent)

The Dailies:
 
Tuesday: Scattered showers and cloudy. Highs in the low 80s. Very humid. Chance of rain 60%.
 
Wednesday: Scattered showers in the morning, with steadier rainfall in the evening. Chance for localized flooding. Humid. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 80%.   
 
Thursday: Rain in the morning, tapering off to scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs in the  low 80s. Humid. Chance of rain 70%.
 
Friday: Cloudy, chance of a shower or two. Humid. Highs in the mid 80s.
 
Saturday: Cloudy becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s.
 
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
 
Monday:  Chance for showers. Humid. Highs in the lower 80s.   
 
Thank you for reading and enjoy your evening!
 
-LD

Good evening to you from SCW!
After a warm start to the week, the last two days have been perfect; sunny skies, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures. The short-term forecast features more of the same, but later in the weekend into next week, we will transition towards a muggier, wetter pattern that will bring several chances of rain to the region.

Friday-Saturday
Comfortable summertime weather continues for the first part of your weekend. Tomorrow will be the warmer day of the two, with highs in the mid 80s, but with low humidity levels, it will still be very pleasant. Most of Saturday will be even better, with temps in the lower 80s and low humidity once again, but we’ll need to watch for clouds and possibly some showers moving in Saturday night ahead of our first system in the period.
​
Sunday
Model guidance is in good agreement in bringing energy north along the coast and developing a low-pressure system south of our area, bringing rain and gusty winds for Saturday night into Sunday. Still some uncertainty as to where the core of the system will track (which will determine if we see heavy rains or a lighter, more showery event), but either way it looks like Sunday will be a wet day. The heaviest rain will likely be Saturday night into early Sunday as the system passes overhead, but sufficient moisture and energy remains behind the system to allow for showers to persist through much of the day Sunday.

Monday-Thursday
For the week ahead, our weather pattern will primarily be dominated by a Western Atlantic Ridge building into our area, pushing toughing and cooler weather to our west. While temps will not be exceptionally high, the ridge will do two things to make our weather somewhat unpleasant. First, it will push ocean moisture back into our region, leading to high humidity levels (and therefore higher than average overnight lows despite near-average highs), and second, it will provide an environment that is primed for shower and thunderstorm development. As such, while I don’t expect any single day to be wet from start to end, I do expect that there is a chance for some rain almost any day of next week, and would think that we’ll see some severe storm potential as well if the ingredients align correctly. Otherwise, highs should range through the 80s (possibly high 80s/lower 90s on Tuesday in the usually warmer spots) with nighttime lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Here’s a look at the upper-level ridge and the resulting temp anomalies – notice the core of the colder air further to our west and the ridging allowing warmer air to surge into our region.

The Dailies
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with clouds developing late. Highs in the lower 80s.
Sunday: Rain likely, otherwise, cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain is 90%.
Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Chance of rain is 50%.
Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain is 50%.
Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain is 50%.
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

Sorry we missed the last week, but what a week it was! It felt much better after starting the first week of the month with a torch. 

The week ahead looks mostly quiet, with the heat being centered early on. 

Monday
Tomorrow is the hottest day of the week. We'll see warm and humid conditions, especially inland, as a ridge tries to build. It won't be the kind of heat that we saw earlier in the month fortunately, and it doesn't look to last long. Areas near the immediate coast should be cooler with a sea breeze. There is only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. 

Tuesday
The second day of the work week looks unsettled. It may be a warm to hot day too, with high humidity and temperatures in advance of the front. Unlike some of the other fronts we've seen this season, this on is coming with a lot of forcing, which will create conditions conducive for moderate to heavy rain. I expect this to fall during the afternoon and evening hours, and while there could be a few strong to severe storms, it doesn't look like there's a significant severe thunderstorm threat. 

Wednesday-Friday
The middle to end of the work week looks much more tranquil. While there could be some showers during the early morning hours of Wednesday, after the front passes we are going to see drier and less humid conditions as high pressure builds in. In terms of temperatures, I expect typical summer highs and nice nighttime lows.