Hello from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

For 25 years, I have been fascinated by the power and unpredictability of weather. This feeling has been no more powerful than when it comes to tropical meteorology. Hurricanes are the most destructive storms our planet produces, with some systems being hundreds of miles across and causing tens of billions of dollars in damage. Despite extraordinary scientific progress in recent decades, it is fair to say that predicting both the track and intensity of tropical systems is still one of the hardest things to do in meteorology. 

Last week was Hurricane Preparedness Week. This post seeks to provide an overview of how tropical systems develop, some of the tools we have to track and forecast them, and what hurricane season means for Connecticut. I will also share some of the key points to help you prepare for the season. Grab a drink, sit back, and enjoy the post. 

High waves batter Westport as Tropical Storm Irene arrives. Irene made landfall on Coney Island, New York as a 65mph tropical storm before the center moved into western Connecticut. Image courtesy of Stephen Dunn and the Hartford Courant. 

What is a Hurricane? 
First, let's start of the basics. Everything posted is focused exclusively on our part of the world. Tropical systems are different from our usual fall or winter coastal storms in that they exclusively receive their energy from the warm waters of the tropical and subtropical regions of the Atlantic Ocean. These are organized systems of thunderstorms (convection) that have a closed low level center of circulation. There are multiple levels of tropical systems. 

• Invest: An invest (95L as an example) is an area of interest. It is not an official tropical system that would bring frequent official updates from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). An invest is often a tropical wave that has the potential to develop. Having an invest designation means that more tracking and forecasting resources are used to determine the future of the area of interest. 
  
  
• Tropical Depression: A tropical depression is an official tropical system or cyclone. For a tropical depression to be classified, there must be consistent convection and a defined low level center. 
  
  
• Tropical Storm: A tropical storm is a system with maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph (34 to 63 knots). 
  
  
• Hurricane: A hurricane is a system with maximum sustained winds of 74mph and above (64 knots). A major hurricane is a category three or higher system (111mph and above). 

It is important to note that maximum winds do not need to be found in all areas of a tropical storm or hurricane to warrant the classification. In fact, often times you find the highest winds in the northeast quadrant of a tropical system. 

Hurricane season lasts from June 1st to November 30th, but the overwhelming majority of the season takes place between late August and early October, with the climatological (or historical) peak of the season being in early/mid September. 

Above: the long term average of when storms most frequently appear each season. Note that things ramp up significantly in August, peak in September, peak again in early to mid October, and fall off rapidly afterward. 

Tools in the Toolbox
There are a plethora of tools that forecasters use to predict tropical cyclone genesis and future track and intensity. 

• Satellite: Satellites such as GOES-16 are incredibly helpful tools in helping forecasters identify areas of interest, upper level features that determine the future track of systems, and the growth of hurricanes. 
  
  
• Radar: Just as it is helpful for severe weather and rain, radar is a vital tool in helping us understand the inner core of tropical systems. It is also critical in identifying tornadoes that are quickly spun up by landfalling tropical systems. 
  
  
• Computer Models: The guidance, both ensembles (think GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles) and deterministic (think GFS, Euro) are critical tools as they analyze virtually every aspect that impacts track and intensity of tropical systems. One important tool now is the HWRF model, which is the best intensity model we have currently. An important note here however is that the HWRF is at its best when there is an actual organized center of circulation. 
  
  
• Hurricane Hunters: While the computer models are critical, they are only as good as the data they have. This is where the king of our forecasting tools comes into play. The Hurricane Hunters fly into tropical systems and gather vital data on the strength and intensity trends of systems, and other planes fly around the system to help us get a better handle on the upper level pattern that eventually steer the system. A tropical system is not a bull in a china shop. It is a leaf floating in a river. Tropical systems are driven by the environment around them. 

Above: Hurricane Hunters flying through the eye of a hurricane.

New England Tropical Climatology
In this decade, New England has seen two tropical related events that have devastated large swaths of the region, but neither were hurricanes when they impacted the region. The last landfalling hurricane was Hurricane Bob, which hit New England in 1991. 

Overall, according to data that goes back to 1851, the averages show that while hurricane strikes are infrequent, they do happen. Again, this does not even include tropical storm landfalls or indirect strikes such as Irene and Sandy, which did extraordinary damage to parts of New England and Connecticut. 

Hurricane Landfalls: Once every 10 years
Major Hurricane Landfalls: Once every 56 years

As mentioned above, our last hurricane landfall was in 1991 with Hurricane Bob. It did not make a landfall in Connecticut, but there were significant impacts in the state.

The last major hurricane landfall was in 1954, perhaps our most active year in the historical record with Major Hurricane Carol and Hurricane Edna (which was originally a major hurricane before reanalysis moving it to category two) making landfall, along with the strong winds that came with the remnants of Hurricane Hazel.

In 1955, the remnants of major hurricanes Connie and Dianne (which was a tropical storm on closest approach) created one of the great floods in Connecticut's history. These two storms hit nearly a week apart, and 87 people were killed along with thousands of structures destroyed. 

This incredible 1955 photo comes from Thompsonville when impacted by Dianne. Image courtesy of the James M. Malley Photo Collection and Hartford Courant.

​Below, part one of a 1956 special on the Great Flood. 

The benchmark New England hurricane however, is the Long Island Express, also known as the Great Hurricane of 1938. The major hurricane made landfall on September 21, 1938 with the intact eye passing just east of New Haven before traveling up the Connecticut River Valley. Flooding and hurricane force winds reached deep inland. The storm killed nearly 600 people in New England and was one of the most destructive events in New England's history. 

Above: Middletown, CT in the wake of the Long Island Express in 1938. Image courtesy of the Connecticut Historical Society. 

Although New England has far fewer threats from landfalling hurricanes, Connecticut with its central location, is nonetheless prone to landfalling tropical systems. For our region, tropical landfalls are usually made by rapidly moving systems that are moving north or northeast along the periphery of an Atlantic area of high pressure and/or along a trough that pushes in from the west and pulls a system northward rather than kicking it out to sea as it does the overwhelming majority of the time. Even with today's technology, the final track of many tropical systems that threaten the US are not known until a few days in advance. 

Tropical Hazards
As you can see above, even without a direct landfall from a tropical system, Connecticut can experience significant impacts from tropical remnants and systems that pass to our west or east. When dealing with tropical systems, it is always important to remember that the center is not the only place where damaging weather can occur. 

Wind
Most people think of wind when it comes to tropical systems. Even "weak" category one hurricanes or tropical systems can cause significant wind damage to trees and power lines. Just think of the damage Sandy did while the center made landfall hundreds of miles to our southwest. Sandy had the largest wind field on record in this region.

Flooding
The key hazard in a tropical system is often flooding. In fact, most deaths in tropical systems are due to flooding that is caused by either excessive rainfall or storm surge. The Connecticut coastline remains vulnerable to storm surge, and all of Connecticut is at risk of flooding due to heavy rainfall from a tropical system that makes a close enough approach.

Tornadoes
Tropical systems can be prolific producers of tornadoes, particularly on the right side of the storm. These can happen anywhere and although they are generally on the lower end of the Enhanced Fujita scale, they can still do significant damage to property and communities. 

Rip Currents
Rip currents are also another important hazard that isn't frequently mentioned. Rip currents can occur hundreds of miles away from a tropical system. 

Hurricane Season Preparation
It only takes one storm to change your life. No matter if you are in Groton or Hartford, it is important to remain weather aware during hurricane season--especially during the peak--and be prepared in case a tropical system or its remnants sets its sights on us. 

1. Determine Your Risk: Whether you are inland or at the shoreline, now is the time to determine your risk level. Are you in an area that experiences large waves during storms? Are you in an area that loses power easily? Are you in an area that floods a lot during rain storms? Do you have flood insurance? Asking these simple questions now can prepare you for later. 
   
   
2. Develop an Evacuation Plan: For those along the shoreline, know your flood and evacuation zone. Know what it takes for the call to be issued, know if your home can withstand a hurricane in particular, and if you are ordered to evacuate, do so. Plan your route to safer ground and plan for your pets. Remember, it does not take a major hurricane to cause major flooding and storm surge. 
   
   
3. Assemble Supplies: As we have learned from recent tropical and winter storms, you need to have supplies in case we experience large systemic power outages. Consult local emergency manager sites and FEMA to plan ahead. 
   
   
4. Get an Insurance Check Up: Standard homeowner insurance does not typically cover flooding, which is the greatest hazard in most tropical systems. Make sure you have the appropriate amount of rental or homeowner insurance. Right before a storm, or worse, right after, is not the time to find out you're not covered. 
   
   
5. Strengthen Your Home: Securing outdoor items, trimming limbs, and moving your car to a safe location are all important things to think about if a storm is bearing down on Connecticut. If you are at home during a storm, put yourself and your property in a position to make it through an event unharmed. 
   
   
6. Help Your Neighbor: Recent disasters have taught us that often times the community must band together after an event. Don't be afraid to talk about storm preparedness with your neighbors and collaborate on planning. A bad tree or unsecured items in your neighbors yard can do very real damage in yours. 
   
   
7. Complete a Written Plan: Write things down! Having a written plan ensures that you don't have to start from scratch when a storm is coming, and helps to reduce anxiety that many feel before a potential natural disaster. A written plan ensures that you are prepared for whatever happens, and keeps you and your family safe. 

The last hurricane to make landfall in Connecticut was Hurricane Gloria in 1985. An entire generation of residents have lived in the state without a direct hurricane hit.

​Some day, this period of relative calm will end. 

SCW will be there to provide you with information from official sources and our own thoughts should anything pose a threat to Connecticut. 
​
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​

Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather!

The dog days of summer have arrived, as we sit in a generally quiet pattern for another week. Can you believe that August is just a few days away? We have moved past our climatological peak for maximum high temperatures, and the amount of daylight we lose each day continues to increase. The march toward fall has begun. 

This will be a quick post, as I am hoping to post another piece today that looks at New England tropical climatology. 

It is a beautiful but warm start to the day long much of the East Coast in this stunning GOES-16 image. 

Sunday-Monday
Both today and tomorrow look to be similar days, with humid conditions and inland temperatures approaching 90 degrees. In fact, we may see the start of another heat wave for much of Connecticut as we start the week. There will be rain chances however. Both days will bring the risk of showers and thunderstorms. As we saw yesterday, some of those storms may be strong to (isolated) severe. 

Tuesday-Thursday
The middle of the week looks to remain warm, with Tuesday's temperatures topping 90 again inland. Wednesday may be a bit of a transition day, as the heat relents a little due to the passage of a cold front, but overall things look relatively similar with warm conditions and shower/storm chances. 

Friday-Sunday
The end of the week and first weekend of August is looks fine with now, with continued warm conditions and more shower/storm chances that seem relatively low. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny and warm, with increasing clouds and a chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Tuesday: Partly sunny and warm. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. 

Wednesday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and storms. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Thursday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and storms. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Friday: Partly sunny and warm. Highs in the low to mid 80s.  

Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.  

As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​

​Good evening from SCW!
 
After our heatwave broke on Monday, we’ve had a run of wonderful weather, with seasonable temps and low humidity. For this forecast period, it looks like we’ll slowly warm through the weekend into next week and see a corresponding increase in humidity, but we’ll remain generally tranquil until around midweek when some shower chances return. That said, don’t see anything significant on the horizon, and it looks like the quiet summer days will continue for a while.
 
Friday-Monday
 
A stellar weekend for summer lovers looks on tap, with high pressure remaining in control over the region and leading to warm days and increasing humidity. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s tomorrow and Saturday, ticking up into the upper 80s for Sunday and Monday with perhaps lower 90s in the inland valleys and. Humidity will steadily increase as well, with dewpoints going from the lower 60s tomorrow to the upper 60s by Sunday. That said, it will feel considerably less muggy than last weekend considering the lower dewpoints and temps ~10f cooler; more like a typical hot summer day than a heatwave. Find something fun to do outside (or in the AC), drink plenty of water, and enjoy. As far as skies go, should be mostly sunny, and while a pop-up shower isn’t totally out of the question from Saturday on (becoming slightly more likely each day in the period as humidity increases), anything that does develop should be widely scattered and very brief.
 
Here’s a look at high temps for Friday – Sunday on the GFS.

​Tuesday-Thursday
 
A slowly approaching cold front will cause some convection to develop along the boundary ahead of it as it moves into the region. While the front is relatively weak (and therefore not expecting a major drop in temps), it should cool us off a bit towards the middle of the week, although it will remain humid until the front fully moves through on Thursday. Should see highs in the upper 80s to near 90 again Tuesday but dropping to the mid 80s for Wednesday and Thursday. Will include a chance of showers in the forecast for each day from Tuesday onward, and slowly increase pops each day to account for the approaching cold front. Best chance for thunderstorms looks to be on Thursday, but don’t see any glaring signals for severe right now.
 
Here’s a look at the slow arrival of the cold front – notice the precip moving a little bit further east each afternoon. Think the GFS is too weak with the passing – other models have more pronounced QPF on Thursday and will buy that scenario for now.

​The Dailies
 
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
 
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s.
 
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
 
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
 
Tuesday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
 
Wednesday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 
Thursday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
 
Have a great weekend and thanks for reading SCW!
-SA

Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather.

It is another hot start to the day, after one of our more high end heat and humidity combination days yesterday. Our Excessive Heat Warning continues for the entire state, and while the day is starting off cloudy for some with some showers along the northern portion of the state, this is not expected to significantly impact forecasted high temperatures.

GOES-16 above showing cloudy skies over Connecticut. 

Sunday
As mentioned above, clouds have overspread the state again today. These clouds have pretty much eliminated the chance of topping 100 degrees, but high end heat is still anticipated. We'll have to see how much the clouds are eroded by drier air working in. Overall, today is another scorcher, and you should remain hydrated. Even with showers in parts of the state now, the chance of showers later this afternoon is low. 

Monday/Tuesday
The heat wave ends on Sunday. By early Monday we're watching a cold front pushing into the region. Along that boundary, we should see an area of low pressure develop, which will enhance the rain chances. As a result, we're likely to see widespread showers and some thunderstorms possible on each day. I think the heaviest rain is centered on Monday afternoon/evening into Tuesday. Both days will require an umbrella. 

Wednesday-Thursday
The second half of the week looks fantastic. The front is expected to depart from the region and an unusually strong trough is expected to sweep in and provide more comfortable conditions. Dew points and humidity will drop sharply, and although our temperatures will be seasonably warm, it will feel much better. Rain chances look very low through the period and we should see beautiful conditions. You can see this well in the 850mb temperatures. I included a longer loop to show you just how hot our 850mb temperatures were this weekend. 

Friday-Sunday
Next weekend is looking great right now, but we do look to warm up as a ridge begins to build again. So far, it doesn't look nearly as hot as this past weekend. With ridging in place, it looks mostly clear in terms of conditions, but we'll have to wait and see if the ridge orientation will create more favorable conditions for daytime thunderstorms. 

The Dailies
Today: Partly cloudy with hot and humid conditions. Highs in the mid to upper 90s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 60%.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 80%. 

Wednesday: Decreasing clouds and comfortable conditions. Highs in the low 80s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny and comfortable. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Friday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 
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​As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading SCW. 

-DB​

Running a bit late tonight, due to commitment with severe weather tracking with another organization, but will get as much done as I can in this discussion.

Currently: Summary of hazards in effect from our 3 WFO's.  Severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect for many counties around the state.  An advisory for flooding is in effect for the extreme SW.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through tonight for the SW half of the state.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the entire state through the first half of tonight.  An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect for the SW half of the state for the weekend.

Tonight: Ongoing severe and flash flood threat continues tonight, mostly for the first half of the night, but I wouldn't rule out activity (mainly isolated) for the rest of the night, especially in the southern half of the state.  Instability will remain high, and the air mass will remain very soupy in that part of the state.  As far as temperatures, guidance is in excellent agreement.  However, I'll slash a degree or two off in most places, due to the fact the air will likely be rain-cooled.  Even so, that only yields low temperatures a couple degrees above 70 across the state.

Tomorrow: Tomorrow's forecast is very tricky, especially temperatures.  A back door cold front will probably move through some of the state, but where it stops, nobody knows.  In the coldest sector behind the front, temperatures may be in the 60s with low clouds, light rain and the like.  In the warmest sector, temperatures will be in the 90s with sun.  The relatively "easier" thing to predict is precipitation.  It will likely rain measurably tomorrow at some point, throughout the state- whether it's "stratiform" rain with cool temperatures, or convective precipitation, with warmer temperatures.  The GFS has been fairly consistent, and the NAM has trended towards the GFS, which is to bring the front a little further north.  O have to say this makes more meteorological sense, given the strength of the Western Atlantic Ridge and the lack of any high pressure to the north.  With this all said, and keep in mind, there is high bust potential with this forecast, but the best I can come up with right now is to call for high temperatures generally in the upper 70s.  This is closest to, but not all the way to , the warmest temperature guidance.  As far as precipitation, there may in fact be two rounds of precipitaiton, one in the morning and one later in the day.  Then, of course, if there is any clearing, temperatures would be higher than what I am currently forecasting.  With the frontal system nearby, there is also a chance of a shower at any time during the day, in between the "main action".

Long Term (Friday and beyond): The main issues in the long term are heat the first three days of the period, then potential for strong to severe thunderstorms either later Sunday or Monday, depending on the timing of the frontal passage.  First, I'll address the heat, and how high I think temperatures are going, and then we'll get to the frontal passage.  So, for temperatures, Friday has been trending warmer on guidance, and I agree with it.  Meteorologically, if I start with the front further north, it has less distance to go to clear the area, so we'll have a higher "launching point".  Therefore, I went a touch above guidance to try and beat the trend.  So highs should approach 90 across the state.

For the rest of the long term, here are the temperatures and reasoning:
Saturday and Sunday- mid 90s
Monday- mid 80s
Tuesday- near 80
Wednesday- near or just above 80.

The GFS has trended even warmer for Saturday and Sunday, and it could very well be right, given the fact that it led the way with this heat wave and it has been verifying much better of late.  However, it's tough to go "all in" this far out, since things would have to be perfect for that to pan out.  So I went just a touch cooler than the GFS guidance.  I went a bit cooler than guidance for Monday, since I think there will be more clouds than what the GFS-based guidance suggests.  I also went a touch below GFS guidance in subsequent days, especially Tuesday, since the high pressure system moving in from the north looks strong.

Speaking of thunderstorm chances for Sunday into Monday, throwing all models away and using basic meteorology suggests a good potential for at least scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.  Of course, a lot can go wrong with this kind of a presumption at this juncture.  Timing has to be right for one thing.  And timing has varied drastically from one model cycle to the next.  GIven the strength of the aforementioned Western Atlantic Ridge, meteorology favors a slower frontal passage, so I'll bring it through Monday afternoon.

Finally, looking into the long range, and for obvious reasons, I did not spend too much time on it, we ma enjoy the benefits of a little ripple in the pattern, giving us a break from the heat for 7-10 days.  However, models are beginning to show a return of the pattern we are in right now.  So that would mean more of this type of heat around the end of the month.

Now, let's take a look at some of the systems slated to affect the region during this period.  Since tonight's event is already ongoing, I'll focus on tomorrow and Monday.  This map, valid midday tomorrow, shows precipitation just beginning in the western half of the state, with a lot more coming from New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

​

The next map, valid late Sunday night, shows the cold front already having passed through the northern part of the state, and barreling southeastward.  I personally think the front will be slower than that, as it encounters resistance from the Western Atlantic Ridge.  But here's the map anyway, so that you can see the orientation of the front.

Anyway, that's all for now! See you next week and stay cool!

​-GP!