Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

For the second time in less than a week, a hurricane is poised to strike the United States. In between my 5pm Facebook post and the time of this update, Hurricane Isaias began to intensify. Currently Isaias is on a northwest heading in the Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. The hurricane will make a close approach or landfall in Florida on Sunday.

​The Hurricane Hunters in the storm are finding lower pressures and slightly higher winds. This was expected, but we are closely watching everything that is happening in the Bahamas because any deviation in track or intensity could have a significant impact on what happens here. 

Above: the current National Hurricane Center forecast track and the most recent satellite image of the hurricane. During the part of the day where thunderstorm activity is expected to wane, we see deep convection fire right over the center (left burst of white). This is a sign of intensification.

The NHC track is a little closer to the coast than prior tracks, and as you can tell by the cone forecast, confidence decreases in the longer term.

Overall Setup
Steering environment
In the broadest sense, the general steering pattern is straightforward. There is a strong ridge in the Atlantic that is steering Hurricane Isaias in the Atlantic. With a stronger ridge, Isaias would travel further west and into Florida. However, there is a trough in the Midwest that is expected to push toward the east coast, and that will create a weakness in the ridge that allows Isaias to shoot up the coast. As you will see below, the interaction is the key to the eventual specifics of the track, but overall we have more confidence today in impacts in Connecticut. 

Development environment
All day, Isaias struggled with wind shear. That both injected try air into the hurricane and disrupted efforts to organize. That shear has not been successful however, as Isaias took all day but finally developed an inner core that will allow it to strengthen. Now that intensification is occurring, we need to watch how resilient the core becomes.

​The environment is not entirely favorable for strengthening. There is wind shear that is expected to increase, and a lot of guidance weakens the hurricane as it gets close to Florida. However, as it moves up the coast, if it is over water there is a lot of fuel for some reorganization. The shear may become more favorable as well, and this is something we need to watch. Overall however, this should make a landfall along the Carolinas, and that will cause weakening.  

The Guidance
Overall, today's guidance has shifted the track of Isaias further west. The good news with that is it increases the likelihood that land interaction in the southeast weakens the storm substantially. The bad news is that it makes is more likely that this goes up the East Coast without going out to sea. 

The guidance does not bring Isaias up to the New England region as a hurricane. However, it does make a close approach on most guidance as a moderate to strong tropical storm. Again, this can change and change quite a bit depending on what happens down south.

We are not yet confident enough in the overall evolution to provide specific details on local impacts. 

We will however, provide a broad overview of possible impacts. 

Above: The 12z European Ensembles, courtesy of weathermodels.com. As you will see, virtually all of the ensemble members connect the lines in the Bahamas (current location of Isaias) and track it up the coast. All those projections bring impacts to CT, which increases our confidence that impacts will occur. 

Possible Scenarios & Impacts
As I see it, there are three outcomes possible. This could be stronger but further offshore. It could be weaker but closer to CT. It could also scoot east at the last minute and give us a glancing blow. 

Scenario 1: Weaker but closer to CT
Under this scenario, the current National Hurricane Center forecast more or less pans out. Hurricane Isaias weakens along the Florida coast and makes a landfall in the Carolinas. It weakens over land, but makes a closer approach to CT, with the center likely passing just SE of CT on Tuesday. This would bring heavy rain and some gusty winds, especially near the shoreline. This would be an impactful event, especially in SE CT and places where rain bands set up. This is currently the overwhelming favorite. 

Chance of occurrence: 65%. 

Scenario 2: Stronger but further offshore
Under this scenario, Isaias is slightly to moderately stronger than anticipated after making a landfall in the Carolinas. This could happen in two ways. First, the storm could intensify more than expected tonight and tomorrow, and ends up hitting land stronger. This would mean that the system takes longer to weaken. The second way would be that the system while over land is enhanced by the trough that it is interacting with. The result would likely mean that the system is further east, but it increases the heavy rain and wind threat, especially in southern CT. This is possible, but not terribly likely at this time. 

Chance of occurrence: 25%

Scenario 3: Last minute swing east
Under this scenario, the trough orientation and speed makes it more of a "kicker" than enabler, forcing Isaias offshore faster and delivering a glancing blow or no impacts. This is highly unlikely at this point, but I am introducing this option in case there is an undersampling in the guidance that has taken place. We should know how viable this is after the set of model runs tonight as they take in new data from the hurricane hunters. As you can see, I wouldn't count on it. 

Chance of occurrence: 10%

Timing 
We are looking at Tuesday being the most likely time that we see impacts from a weakened Isaias. 

Overall
To sum things up, we have increasing confidence that a weakened Isaias will run up the coast and bring us impacts. The extent or severity of the wind and rain is not known at this time. This does not currently look like a highest end event, but this is something to take seriously. We will be back with additional updates daily as we receive more information and begin crafting a storm specific forecast. 

If you haven't already, now is the time to check your supplies, check your generator if you have one, and prepare to purchase supplies if this looks like a higher impact event tomorrow. 

Stay tuned. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading and trusting SCW. 
​
-DB​ ​

Disc: Off to an (intentional) late start today, because I wanted to wait for modeling data to come in.  The ECMWF obviously is not in yet, but should be by the time I finish this.  There is a lot going on.

Currently: A stationary front was just south of the state, with a low pressure system right over NYC.  Another cold front was approaching from the west, and is currently over NW PA/W NYS.  As this front approaches, it will slow and stall, as it encounters resistance from the Bermuda ridge.  Where it stalls and when will play a big role in our wx.  Unfortunately, this is a fairly new development, so there hasn't been much to look for, in terms of trends.  Meanwhile, TS Isaias was near Punta Cana.  This could be a player in our wx down the road.

Tonight: I think we're largely dry until midnight.  Looking at current radar, not a whole lot is going on.  There is one rogue cell in NY that may approach the far NW corner of the state.  Other than that, radar is quiet.  If an LI Sound breeze can develop in the next couple hrs, look for some initiation there, like what's happening along the NJ shore right now.  Otherwise, there is an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight, mainly across SW CT.  So, sct to nmrs t-storms across Fairfield County after midnight, but the rest of the state should be dry xcpt a vry isolated cell here or there.  As for temps, w/clouds in abundance and no real cold air advection, I went a few deg above temp guidance.  Xpct lows only ard 70- a very muggy nite.

Tomorrow: A very difficult forecast and this is a day one forecast.  It all comes down to where the front stalls.  For now, and I hate doing this on day 1, because this is something I do on day 4 and beyond usually, I'll go sct tstorms most of the state, w/ltl or nothing far SE.  Even if the front does go thru, I think there is enough instability leftover to generate a few cells, mainly before 3 PM or so.  As far as temps, again I hate doing this on day 1, but I hv very low confidence.  The air mass supports that if any sun were present, temps could soar, even if only briefly.  On the other hand, if it stays cloudy and/or rainy most of the day, temps would be much cooler.  Therefore, I'll go cls to gdnc, and this yields high temps ard 80.

Tomorrow night/Sat: I am going to try to continue the theme of keeping Sat dry.  For now, I will do this.  But for purposes of informing everyone, I will say that there has been a trend to stall the front and further N than before.  Doing this would paint a much stormier picture for Sat.  Because the models are not there yet, and because I do not want to make drastic changes to the already existing forecast, I'll keep Sat dry for now.  But just keep in mind that this could change, based on today's modeling trends.  As for temps, I'll stay close to guidance, but given a hunch that it will probably be more cloudy than fcst if anything, I'll go a deg cooler here and there.  Xpct highs in the mid 80s.

Long Term (Sun and beyond): Obviously, the main focal point of the long term is the track and evolution of TS Isaias.  However, even without direct effects from Isaias, it is going to be very rainy.  Obviously some NBM members are going to be contaminated by direct hits from Isaias, but the NBM precipitation avg has actually risen and is now well over 4 inches for a good part of the state for the week.  So with or without Isaias, it is pbly a very rainy week coming.  There is also the alternative possibility that Isaias does not hit the area, but moisture from the storm gets entrained into our rains, thereby giving the area heavier rain than we would have gotten.  I'll get to all this blw.

Current guidance for Sun is showing two rounds of storms.  The first one would be early in the morning as the frontal boundary returns north as a warm front.  Then instability and the front still being in the area would flare up more t-storms later in the afternoon.  I do think the warm front ends up a bit further N than current guidance has it, so I'll go a couple deg warmer on temps.  Highs should be in the mid to upper 80s, if this logic is correct.  

Mon could wind up fairly dry, especially if the front clears the area on Sun, as I think it will.  However, instability lingers, and any lingering frontal boundaries can flare up storms.  We'll also need to watch terrain boundaries- such as hills and valleys- where there is a difference in temps, and any breezes off the LI Sound as potential initiation points.  Any storms that do dvlp could be prolific rain makers, as they won't move much and the air mass is very moist.   As for temps on Mon, I think GFS-based guidance is not handling the moisture well enough and is not showing enough storms.  As a result, it's pbly a few degs too warm.  So xpct highs on Mon to be 80-85.

If there are any direct impacts from Isaias, they would be on Tue, so we'll talk about Isaias in this part of the disc.  The current NHC track of Isaias, which I will display below, would literally be a scrape on the state.  This would mean that direct impacts of Isaias would be limited to SE CT, i.e. New London, maybe Middlesex counties.  However, models this summer have had a tendency to underdo the strength of the Bermuda Ridge.  A perfect example of this is actually what's happening right now: Originally, this cold front was xpctd to sweep right thru the area today and only produce a few isolated shwrs.  Now, the front is stalling near the area and definitely has trended tmrw to a wetter fcst and may even impact Sat.  If the same trends happen with Isaias, then it, too, will trend W.  Although the current track of Isaias would likely spare the state (xcpt the far SE) of direct impacts, it is too early to tell whether or not the mdls may make the same mistake again and trend the storm back to the W.  

If we do not see direct impacts from Isaias, then Tue could wind up mostly dry, save for a round of storms in the morning.  Much like Mon, any storms would then be focused on boundaries.  Now, obviously, if there are direct impacts from Isaias, the fcst would be much wetter, windier, and cooler.  For now, I'll split the diff between the very warm GFS and the very cool NBM (which pbly has some members with direct impacts from Isaias).  This would mean highs in the mid 80s, for now.

Model consensus for Wed-Thu shows t-storms over the area for much of the time, some with very heavy rain.  Even if Isaias is a miss, it could enhance rainfall into our area.  In 1996, Hurricane Lili missed the area by 700 miles, yet produced a wide swath of heavy rain, as it injected moisture into a coastal low.  A couple more final notes on Iasias: First, it is not a compact storm.  TS force winds, per NHC, extend over 300 miles from the center.  This would indicate that the actual center could track far from the region and still produce strong effects.  Another thing, as pointed out by the NHC this morning, as the storm crosses Hispaniola, the entire structure of the storm could change, which could lead to track and strength errors.

I promised that was the final note on Isaias, but the 12Z ECWMF has just run.  It is much further W and stronger than the GFS/NHC tracks.  I do not want to go too crazy over one model run, but suffice it to say, the ECMWF would be a VERY high, direct impact from Isaias for the entire state.

Anyway, for Wed and Thu's temps, I went a bit higher than guidance Wed and a bit cooler than guidance Thu, since we could be looking at some onshore flow by then, if some of the modeling is right.  This would yield highs in the mid 80s Wed and near 80 Thu.

Obviously, I did not have much time to look into the long range.  But one quick glance looks like a continuation of a warm, humid, and stormy pattern.

Now, let's look at a couple graphical images, representing the upcoming threats.  First, I'll post the official track from the NHC.  Verbatim, this would be a glancing blow.  I do not need to rehash the same ideas I already wrote above, but my thoughts are that if there is any correction, it would be W of where this map has it going.  And even this map verbatim would produce direct impacts for SE CT.  

Now, I will post a map, that is the GFS' QPF (total precipitation) map for the week.  Keep in mind, the GFS is drier than the model avg and includes very little or no precip from Isaias, since it was one of the furthest east solutions!

​

Anyway, that's all for now! Stay tuned for updates on this developing situation thru the week!

​-GP!

Good afternoon from SCW. 

This weekend has been hot, as we continue this very impressive stretch of 90+ temperatures. Today will feature more heat, as we build toward what may be a record breaking day on Monday and/or Tuesday.

Just as we're watching the heat here, we're watching the tropics, as Hurricane Hanna made landfall in southern Texas yesterday, Hurricane Douglas has the potential to make a rare landfall in Hawaii tomorrow, and we have a 90% chance of development for Invest 92L, which is poised to become Isaias in the open Atlantic.

This seems like a good time to finally talk tropics, so this is a special two part discussion. Part I is on the week ahead. Part II is on tropical tracking and hurricane preparedness. Let's dive in.

​

Part I: The Week Ahead

Above is a summary of temperatures in the northeast so far this month. It has been well above normal, and we're closing in on one of the hottest July months on record. 

Sunday
Today is going to be another hot one. We expect mostly sunny skies and temperatures rising quickly. Highs should top out in the low to mid 90s, just a preview of the next two days. We normally don't talk about low temperatures, but the low temperatures tonight are expected to be warm, so it might be an AC night for most. 

Monday
Tomorrow is looking very hot. Again, we are expecting a mostly sunny day, and temperatures will skyrocket on a favorable wind direction for heat. Highs inland, especially in the Connecticut River Valley, will reach the upper 90s and 100 cannot be ruled out. It will also be modestly humid, with dew points in the 60s. That combination will create heat indices over 100 for many. 

An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for Hartford County for Monday. Heat related illness will definitely be possible so watch for the signs. Tomorrow night is looking to be warm as well, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. That doesn't happen here often, which could make Monday a record breaker. 

Tuesday-Wednesday
Tuesday and Wednesday look hot as well. Tuesday should be hot and humid, but there will be an advancing cold front. That will bring us the chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, but right now, those chances do not look particularly high. Some of those storms may be strong to severe, but there's not much of a widespread severe signal. Wednesday will be a move toward less hot conditions, but we're still expecting inland temperatures to reach the low 90s. 

Thursday-Sunday
Not much to be said here actually in terms of our weather. Temperatures will be on the gradual decline, but still very warm. The period looks quiet, with no real rain chances, as we possibly turn our attention to the tropics. 

​The Dailies
Monday: Hazy, Hot, and Humid. Highs in the low to mid 90s at the shore. Highs in the upper 90s to 100 inland. 

Tuesday: Partly sunny and hot, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 90s at the shore. Highs in the mid to upper 90s inland. Chance of rain 30%. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and hot. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.

​Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.

​

Part II: Tracking Tropical & Hurricane Preparedness

Above is the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) tropical weather outlook. You will see what was Hurricane Hanna over Texas and Mexico. Hanna hit Texas yesterday as a rapidly intensifying category one hurricane. The red X you see in the central Atlantic is Invest 92L. That is being given a 90% chance of developing into a formal tropical system. The next name on the list is Isaias. It's not worth talking about in detail currently, but could be a long track system worth watching by the end of the week. 

Recap of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season So Far
In classic 2020 fashion, this season has been historically active so far. There have been eight named storms. While we have only seen one Hurricane (Hanna), we have seen 4 of the 8 named storms make landfall in the US. Fay, which was a bit of a bust here, brought some relatively light rain and wind to Connecticut after making a landfall in southern New Jersey. 

Although we have had a record fast hurricane season so far, some past hurricane seasons, like the benchmark bad season of 2005, had major hurricanes by now. Early season activity doesn't necessarily mean an active season overall, but I expect a very active season for a variety of factors. Although we're approaching August, there is approximately 90% of the season remaining. 

As you can see above, the overwhelming bulk of tropical storm and hurricane activity happens from Mid-August to Mid-October. This is often described at the "peak" of the season. Often, as we saw this week, you can go from no activity in the Atlantic to a lot of activity. For Connecticut, the peak of the season brings the most likely time we will see activity. Often times, any tropical activity we see is from the remnant rain of a past tropical system, but other times, the impacts are more direct. 

Irene was an August storm. Gloria was a September storm. Sandy (which actually doesn't technically count as tropical) was an October storm. The peak of the hurricane season is our peak as well. Below is a NOAA image of the prevailing tracks during each month of the peak. 

How to Track
There is a lot that goes into tracking tropical, but I want to provide a basic overview of real-time tropical tracking. Essentially, you want to watch the development environment and steering environment.

Development environment
The development environment consists of the current factors that will determine how favorable the conditions are for a tropical system to develop and intensify. There are three critical factors: wind shear, moisture, and sea surface temperatures. Wind shear must be low in order for thunderstorms to grow and rotate around the center of low pressure. The less shear, the more organization a tropical system can have. Moisture is critical for thunderstorm formation. With a dry and stable environment, long lasting thunderstorms cannot develop, which aids in developing a tropical system. Sea surface temperatures are critical as well. Temperatures must generally be above 26 degrees C for tropical formation. The higher the temperatures, the greater potential there is for a stronger storm. One thing particularly concerning about this season is the fact that the Atlantic basin is nearly the warmest on record. Even our sea surface temperatures, although below the 26C threshold, are well above normal. That helped Fay in early July. Below are some examples of current conditions. 

Steering environment
The steering environment determines where a tropical system is headed. Most storms remain harmlessly out to sea, but sometimes the steering environment is such that the US is threatened. Here, things get a little more complicated than the development environment, but generally, you are looking at the presence of ridges--large scale areas of high pressure that generally keep tropical systems suppressed or on a US coast heading, and troughs--areas of disturbed weather/lower heights that usually push a storm out to sea or in some instances, capture a storm and pull it toward the coast. 

Above is an example of a landfall pattern on the east coast. A tropical system is off the coast just as a ridge builds to the east and north (red shaded areas/lines pushing upward). That kind of pattern would steer a system into the Carolinas. Below is an out to sea pattern. There is no real ridge building in and troughing (lines pushing downward). 

New England Climatology
In New England, it is difficult to get a tropical system up this way. There is too often troughing that would force a system out to sea well before it reaches our shores. However, New England is not immune to hurricanes. In 1954, New England was hit by two hurricanes. In 1938, New England was hit by our benchmark storm--a major hurricane. In recent memory we have extremely damaging storms like Irene and Sandy, which only brought tropical storm conditions to the state but caused widespread damage. 

The fact of the matter is that Connecticut must be prepared for tropical systems each year, even though most years we will see nothing. 

What Does This Season Look Like?
We're overdue for a bona fide hurricane strike, but it remains to be seen if such a hit happens this year. A hit is always unlikely, but given the active season and a summer that has strongly favored ridging in areas that historically create a window for northward moving systems, we should be taking additional efforts to be prepared this season.

Tropical Storm Fay brought an early warning. What may become Isaias could be a long track system that gets close to the US coast. We're not even at the peak of the season yet. Should the dominant development and steering pattern continue, I expect additional close calls, more than any year in at least the last few years. 

SCW will be here every step of the way, but the message should be clear now: this season we need to be prepared.

Tropical Storm Irene, the last tropical system to most directly impact Connecticut, left more than half the state without power and caused extensive damage along the coast. It was a weakening tropical storm.

​Below is an image of the damage in East Haven in the wake of Irene, courtesy of UConn's Center for Land Use Education and Research (CLEAR).

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading and trusting SCW. 
​
-DB​ ​

Good evening from SCW. 

The big heat wave that we're experiencing comes at an appropriate time, as this time of July usually sees our highest average high temperatures. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Connecticut through tomorrow, when we are likely to see another day of high heat inland, with temperatures reaching the upper 90s. 

While the big heat will fade a bit, it will still be a hot week. The pattern looks mostly stable for the week ahead. 

Monday-Tuesday
As mentioned above, tomorrow is looking like another scorcher, continuing this heat wave. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 90s inland, and a few degrees "cooler" at the shoreline. There will be a small chance of thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through the region, and some of those storms could be strong. For most, however, tomorrow looks dry. 

There is likely to be brief relief from oppressive humidity on Tuesday, but the day still looks hot. The heat wave may continue for inland areas with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. It should be a sunny day with virtually no chance of showers or storms. 

Wednesday-Thursday
The most active part of the week looks to be midweek, as humidity increases and thunderstorm chances rise in advance of a cold front. Each day looks warm and unsettled. While it won't rain all of the time, each day has a chance for showers and thunderstorms, with the current guidance leaning toward Thursday being the better chance for strong storms. We'll be watching it. 

Friday-Sunday
This part of the forecast is looking good right now. As the cold front passes Thursday, we should see more seasonable and less humid air arrive, along with tranquil conditions under high pressure. Below is a depiction from the latest GFS on the week ahead. 

The Dailies
Monday: Sunny, hot, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s. Slightly cooler in SE CT. Chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Chance of rain 30%. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warm. Less humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. 

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with shower and thunderstorm chances. Humid. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Thursday: Partly cloudy with shower and thunderstorm chances. Storms may be strong to severe. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 60%. 

Friday: Mostly sunny and more seasonable. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Finally, this week was Hurricane Preparedness Week in New England. After our close call with Fay, it is a reminder that New England is not immune to tropical impacts. The Atlantic hurricane season will likely increase dramatically in activity in the next month or two, as we enter the historical peak of the season. Make sure you are taking time now to prepare. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

-DB​ ​

Disc: We are now in the hottest time of the year.  Although yesterday and today aren't any indication, the pattern shaping up the next two weeks will be a good indication.  In addition, there will be ample chances of showers and t-storms, as various frontal boundaries set up near the area.

Currently: Examining today's surface analysis, you can clearly see two important players on the weather field.  The first is high pressure over Nova Scotia, keeping the area cool and dry today.   The second is a warm front currently over Wrn PA.  This warm front wl be the beginning of the end of this nice, cool, dry pattern.

Tonight: The general thinking for now is that most of the rain associated with the warm front will ride north of the region.  The only place that could get a glancing blow would be far NE CT (Tolland/Windham), and even there it would probably be just a quick sprinkle or shower centered around dawn.  As for temps, I went pretty close to guidance, w/o a big reason to differ too much.  Altho I could see temps being warmer, rather than cooler, than gdnc if anything.  Xpct lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Tomorrow: SPC is not enthused about big storms and neither am I.  They have the entire NE US in "general thunderstorms", which I agree with.  Of course, any given t-storm can become briefly strong or even severe, but I am not expecting widespread svr wx at this time.  I think coverage will be scattered at best at any given time, w/NE CT possibly not seeing anything at all, as their atmos  gets worked over from AM stuff.  In Wrn CT there could be 2 rounds of storms-one  late in the day and the other ard midnite.  Either way, it's not a big event, and it's not unusual to get t-storms in July in this area.  As for temps, gdnc looks xclnt and is accepted.  Xpct highs ard 80.

Long Term (Sat and beyond): For the weekend, no precipitation is expected.  With the Bermuda high pumping up the heat, I'll go a bit warmer than guidance on Sat.  W/ltl or no sea breeze xpctd, look for highs in the low 90s.

On Sunday, the same general forecasting philosophy applies as Saturday.  With a big Bermuda Ridge an d no mechanism for a sea breeze, go a bit higher than guidance.  Xpct highs 90-95, maybe even some solid mid 90s alg I 91.

Our next chance of any thunderstorm activity appears to be on Monday.  In an ironic twist, something different than the norm, the greatest chance will be along the S coast.  This is because sea breezes wl be a bit stronger and could flare up storms there.  N of the Merritt, the chc drops to isolated at best, w/just random pop-up storms possible.  It wl be very hot on Mon, w/highs 90-95.  Gdnc was accepted, w/a few local adjustments.

For Tuesday, during the day, there should be just a slight chance of storms, confined to areas W of I 91.  For those same areas, there will be a better chance of storms later at night Tues nite.  I usually do not get too excited about nighttime thunderstorms, but on very hot days, there can be enough heat leftover to sustain storms into the nite.  E of I 91, the chc of any storms on Tues is slim to none.  Since I believe we'll be sunnier than NBM gdnc indicates (it appears to be contaminated by a cpl overly stormy members), I'll go a cpl deg higher than gdnc.  This gives us highs ard 90, w/some low 90s psbl alg I 91.

For Wednesday, this is the day I think we'll have the greatest shot at thunderstorms across the entire state.  A large backdoor cold frontal boundary will slide S across the state, probably providing relief from the heat as it does so.  Some sun late in the morn to midday should serve to destabilize the area, and numerous t-storms should dvlp in the aftn.  I do think the front wl be a few hrs slower than advertised by the NBM, so I went a few deg higher on temps.  Xpct the warmest places to touch 90 and everyone else to be in the upper 80s.

A lot of uncertainty on Thursday's forecast, which is not unexpected, given that it hinges on frontal position and it's day 7.  For now, a consensus approach is that the front clears 1/2 the area and gets hung up in Ern CT.  So, W of 91, just xpct widely scattered storms, as the air wl be a lot more stable.  E of 91, xpct numerous t-storms to continue.  As for temps, I'll go close to gdnc, but maybe a bit cooler, esp over Ern CT, w/numerous storms xpctd.  So xpct highs to be in the mid 80s.

The overall long range pattern continues to look generally warm to hot.  As is always the case, thunderstorms will depend on positioning of frontal boundaries or little sea breeze  boundaries and are not easy to focus on this far out.

Now, let's take a graphical look at some of the systems slated to affect the area.  For today's package, I apologize that I will only be including one graphic, but that graphic will focus on tmrw.  The next real good chance of storms for the entire state is not until next week, and w/such uncertainty at this lead time, I prefer to leave that out of the disco.  On this image, you can see frontal thunderstorms approaching the state, but note the lack of much dark coloring on the map.  This is usually an indicator that the activity is scattered or broken in nature, and that some people may see nothing at all.

Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great and safe week!
​-GP!