Disc: A complex frontal system heading toward the area will usher in a pattern of not very summerlike weather for quite a while.  There will be severe weather, possibly very severe weather, associated with this front, but nearly all of it should remain to the SW of the state.

Currently: A warm front extended from Delaware Bay to NW PA.  Low pressure was also over NW PA.  Although this front should not bring severe wx to CT, a rogue strong storm is possible in the far SW and heavy rain is possible everywhere.

Tonight: Any rain ends around midnight.  Went a few deg under guidance for temps, as strong CAA commences after midnight.  Lows generally in the mid 60s, give or take a few degrees.

Tomorrow: A beautiful sunny day with low dew points.  Guidance looks very good, and went very close, with a few minor adjustments.  Highs generally near 80.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: continued beautiful and pleasantly cool for the time of yr.  Guidance looks perfect and is accepted.  Highs only in the mid to upper 70s.  It is not inconceivable that some of the NW hills could start the day Sat in the 40s!

Long Term: Not a super active period.  The main features in the long term are a frontal passage Sunday, waves along the frontal system early in the week, and then more front(s) later in the week.  There do not look to be any very large pcpn events during this period, but maybe just after this period.

For Sunday, models have trended drier.  However, I'm not sure how much I buy it.  Models tend to flip flop at that range.  For now, I'll go w/chance pops for rain and possibly an imbedded t-storm, but no severe wx.  I do not think the entire day is dry, as a few ENS members suggest.  Guidance looks pretty good, regarding temps, so near 80 for statewide highs looks good.

For Monday, drier air advects in again, w/low dew points.  Another spectacular day for the time of yr.  Guidance looks good and is clustered together, so will accept.  Highs again near 80 statewide.

For Tuesday, some ENS members want to ride a wave up the front and bring it close enough to affect our area.  Right now, models are showing very low amounts of low level moisture.  Therefore, for now, I'll keep all the rain out of the fcst and just go w/an increase in high clouds.  Of course, later shifts can refine this, if necessary.  I will go lower than guidance for Tue's temps, since I do think we will be mostly cloudy and NBM temps are not reflective of that.  Highs generally only in the mid 70s, except a few upper 70s in the I 91 corridor.

For Wednesday, sunny with low humidity once again.  Guidance looks fine, so temps accepted w/just a few minor adjustments here and there.  Highs around 80 pretty much statewide.

Finally for Thu, once again yet another frontal wave may develop along the old offshore front.  This front could be close enough to allow moisture to ooze into the area, and we could be on the fringes of it.  It won't last long, because a new cold front will approach from the west.  But I think it's worthy of a slight chance of light rain in the fcst for now.

Looking a bit further out, it does look like a traditional cold front approaches from the west next Fri, bringing showers and storms with it.  It appears that next week could be a return to more humid and frequently stormy wx, as the Bermuda Ridge heads west a bit, and places the region back in the ring of fire.

No graphics today, for what is a fairly quiet week, compared to recent weeks.

See ya next week!

-GP!

Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

Happy Monday! The weekend brought a mixed bag, with a beautiful Saturday followed up by a cooler, cloudy, and sometimes rainy Sunday. The week ahead is looking fairly similar to the last, with a few rain chances and some thunderstorm opportunities. The week will start with warm temperatures that are more usual for this time of year, followed by a downward trend in temperature and humidity. 

This is the warmest time of the year, climatologically speaking, so each day we're not hot we are catching a break. Let's dive in. 

Monday
Today looks to be a good day overall, although we're going to battle the heat a bit. Fog and clouds should break to partly to mostly sunny conditions during the late morning and afternoon, and temperatures will respond. For inland areas, we're expecting more humidity and temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. For most of the shoreline, temperatures will be warm as well with highs in the mid to upper 80s. 

Tuesday
Tuesday looks great as well, at least early on, with warm and sunny conditions. Temperatures should be close to what they are today, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and a few spots inland potentially touching 90.

Later in the afternoon and evening, a cold front will advance and bring the chance of rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms depending on the timing. It'll be good to have the umbrella handy, but again, most of the day will be fine. The period where we might see the most widespread showers currently looks to be overnight into early Wednesday. 

Above: GFS depiction of Tuesday and early Wednesday, with showers and possible storms most likely late Tuesday. 

Wednesday-Thursday
​The middle of the week is looking like our unsettled period, as the aforementioned cold front stalls to our south. Wednesday looks cooler with highs in the lower 80s, and will come with the chance of showers, but right now it is Thursday that is looking mostly wet. A second cold front is expected to push through the region, from the northwest bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Nothing looks particularly severe at this point, but depending on the location of the (first) stalled front (which may try to push through our region as a warm front) we could see some stronger storms. 

Above: GFS depiction of the rain on Thursday and possibly early Friday. Note how things clear later in the day on Friday, clearing the path to a nice weekend! 

Friday-Sunday
In the wake of the second cold front we should see fantastic conditions. Unless we see a significant change in the timing of the cold front on Thursday, Friday looks to be very nice after some possible morning showers, with below normal and comfortable temperatures and sunny conditions during the afternoon and evening.

That should continue into the weekend, as high pressure takes control. In fact, for the first time in about a month it is looking like we could see an extended break from the rain! Below is the final GFS depiction showing the temperature trend. After a warm Monday and Tuesday we should see below normal temperatures for virtually the remainder of the forecast period. The GFS does try to bring in another cold front on Sunday, which could mean possible showers, but for now I am discounting that, at least with regard to timing. 

The Dailies
Monday: Early clouds and fog transitioning to partly to mostly sunny conditions. Warm and humid. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s at the shore. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny early, with increasing clouds in the afternoon and a chance of showers and thunderstorms late. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland and mod to upper 80s at the shore. 

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of showers followed by partly to mostly sunny conditions. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain early 20%. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds late. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​ ​

Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather. 

As many of you saw on Facebook, yesterday brought major flooding to parts of eastern Connecticut during the afternoon and in parts of Litchfield County overnight. Ashford was hit especially hard, with roads and bridges washed out and river flooding not seen since the Great Hurricane of 1938. This has been a truly exceptional pattern over the last 3-4 weeks in Connecticut, with virtually no state spared from excessively wet conditions on a near daily basis. 

What this means is that a lot of communities have saturated water tables and waterways that are vulnerable to flooding from heavy rain events. Even in my town of East Hartford, the Hockanum River has seen two top ten floods in recorded history in the last two weeks.   

The week ahead is set to begin with the same pattern in place, but we could (emphasis on could) see a bit of a break as we get toward the end of the forecast period. It'd be much needed for Connecticut. Let's dive in. 

Above: the departure from normal with regard to precipitation in the month of July. Most of the state is over 300% above normal for the month, and that is causing a lot of issues from basement flooding to flash flood events like the ones we saw yesterday and during Tropical Storm Elsa. There are a number of river flood warnings in effect as the rivers and streams are overflowing their banks. 

Monday/Tuesday
Although we're not expecting widespread rain, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce locally heavy rainfall. Things look cloudy and relatively cool, with highs in the 70s. This is actually the time of year that tends to be the warmest for us, so the cloudy and rainy are a tradeoff for less hot conditions. That doesn't really help though when it is humid outside.

Tuesday looks good right now, with a reduced chance of showers and storms in the afternoon or evening. Highs look to be near normal for this time of year, with most in the low to mid 80s. Some upper 80s are possible in the typical warm inland spots. 

Wednesday/Thursday
The middle of the week brings a return to wet weather, as another boundary tries to sink south and passes through the region. Wednesday looks like it could be a fairly wet day, with both the GFS and Euro in agreement that at the very least widespread showers look possible. We'll need to watch for thunderstorms during Wednesday, but at this time I am less concerned about severe thunderstorms than I am another potential heavy rainfall event happening somewhere in the state. Stay tuned to additional forecasts for Wednesday. 

Above is the the GFS from earlier today, depicting what may be a wet and stormy Wednesday in CT. Fortunately, it looks like it is a relatively quick mover. While Wednesday looks wet, Thursday looks good right now with clearing and less humid conditions. 

Friday-Sunday
Of course, in this pattern, nice days are hard to come by for a reason. By Friday, we're watching another potential system push through the region via another boundary, which may be potent. Once again, both the GFS and Euro agree on the general progression, but differ on timing.

For now, Friday looks similar to Wednesday to me, with widespread showers and possible thunderstorms at some point during the day, most likely in the afternoon and evening if I had to take a slightly educated guess right now. 

In the wake of the unsettled weather, we should see another return to nice conditions with Saturday and Sunday at first glance looking quiet with sunny conditions and comfortable temperatures and humidity, especially on Saturday. How long that actually lasts remains to be seen, as the guidance tries to bring--you guessed it--more rain by the start of the following week. 

Above is a GFS depiction of dew points as we head into next weekend. Saturday looks nice right now and Sunday isn't too bad either, although we need to watch if rain moves in earlier. 

The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 40%

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 70%. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny and less humid. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.  

Friday: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 50%. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny and less humid. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. 

Sunday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds. Chance of showers late. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain 40%. 

A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.

Thank you for reading. 
​
-DB​ ​

A typical summer pattern, with lots of chances for thunderstorms, will continue.  Keep in mind, because of the nature of thunderstorms, not everyone will get something every day, but more days than not will have at least a shower.

Currently: Warm high pressure dominating the Eastern CONUS, from Quebec to Georgia, to Bermuda.   A few VERY isolated, weak thunderstorms are possible today, but overall, a dry day, at least in terms of precip.

Tonight: We may be able to radiate a little, despite the warm air mass, so I went a touch below guidance.  Even so, it is likely the whole state struggles to even get to 70 deg for lows.

Tomorrow: I went a few deg below guidance, as the NBM really likes to go to town on hot days, but I didn't go way under.  Still mid to upper 80s throughout the state, w/a chance a few places touch 90.  Convection chances will slowly increase during the day, but I think most of the day stays dry, w/better chances for storms at night.

Tomorrow Night/Sat: Went a few deg below guidance on Sat's temps, as NBM probably underdoing cloud cover.  There really is the chance of a t-storm at any time.  There will be a slight chance in the morning, ramping up to likely around dark and continuing thru the night.  Any storm could be severe, and heavy rain is a threat, as well.  Flooding is not too much of a concern, since storms should be moving, but training is possible, and if this happens, local flooding concerns will be possible.  Highs generally in the low 80s, but w/very high humidity.

Long Term: Sun and beyond: Biggest challenge during this period will be determining where the boundary sets up, because this will likely determine where the storms set up.  I will likely be wrong at least one of these days, but this is my best effort.

For Sun, the boundary is still nearby, so we probably get at least scattered coverage of t-storms during the day, w/diurnal heating being the prime hours.  My fcst assumes a front about 150 mi S of the NBM guidance, so I have gone way under.  I have highs only in the mid 70s for Sun.

For Mon, went significantly below guidance again, due to expected onshore flow.  It is possible the front clears far enough S that we don't have any storms Mon.  Highs should be in the mid to upper 70s.

For Tue, the front bubbles back north, bringing warmer temps and higher humidity.  Temps fairly close to guidance in the low 80s.  Isolated to scattered storms possible w/the front nearby.

For Wed, uncertainty this far out, so went a touch under guidance to maintain continuity.  Highs again generally low 80s, except upper 70s for S coast and NW hills.  Front begins to wash out, so just widely isolated storms, at least that's what it looks like right now!

For Thu, obviously some uncertainty at day 7, but ridging could build in at least temporarily, giving us a nice dry day.  Went close to guidance on temps, w/no big reason to differ 7 days out.  Generally low 80s again, with some cooler numbers NW hills and S coast.

The long range may show trending toward a calming of the daily thunderstorms, w/a return to a more "normal" pattern of a front every 3-5 days.  However, there are still hints that those fronts can stall, given blocking in SE Canada and ridging offshore, giving fronts nowhere to go.

No time for graphics today, but other than t-storms, not much going on, and not too many ways to show that over and over again!

See ya next week - GP!

​For Fri night into Sat, this is probably the nicest part of the fcst period.  As Elsa pulls away, she will leave subsidence in her wake, which should keep any t-storms to our SW, at least for a 24 hr period.  Guidance looks fairly reasonable, if not a touch too warm, since there is MODEST cold air advection.  Look for highs on Sat mostly around 80.

Long Term (Sun and beyond): We quickly return to warm, humid, and unstable wx in the long term.  Various boundaries should be near the region at one point or another and we'll be in the favorable "ring of fire" region around the heat dome, so that should keep chances of t-storms up.

For Sun, expect at least 30-40% coverage of storms to develop during the afternoon.  The GFS has finally come aboard showing QPF and it is now in better agreement w/the NBM.  Again, NBM guidance does not look awful, if anything, it is a tad warm.  Highs should mostly be in the upper 70s.

For Mon, once again, I think the GFS is struggling w/QPF, while the NBM may be showing a bit too much.  By tomorrow, they'll probably be in better agreement.  It seems like once again, at least 30-40% coverage should be realized.  NBM temps look too warm, esp if its QPF is realized.  Highs once again should be generally in the upper 70s.

For Tue, once again guidance seems a bit warm, and I prefer continuity regarding temps.  The heat ridge doesn't really become established over our area.  In addition, there may not be all that many storms on Tue, as forcing is gone and we'll rely only on air mass t-storms.  Therefore, I have lowered pops for Tue to just slight chance.

Wed should be much warmer and probably much stormier.  The heat ridge will make a push for the area, as the frontal boundary also becomes more defined.  NBM temps look pretty good, and statewide avg temps should be in the upper 80s.   Widespread heavy t-storms are more probable later in the day and at night.

Not much change is forecast for Thu.  Temps could be a deg or two lower than those of Wed and the convection may be limited more to the night, but once again, warm, humid, and stormy seem to be the best three words to describe the pattern.

The long range also does not look to offer any significant change.  The GFS tries to dry us out after day 12 or so, but that model has a tendency to "fake us out" w/long range pattern changes.  I provided lots of graphics for Elsa today, so no need for any more.  See you all next week!