Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
It was a fantastic weekend with plenty of sun, low humidity for this time of year, and near normal temperatures. Much of July has been fairly quiet actually, and we'll take it after the periods of severe weather that plagued the start of summer. We have now passed the climatological peak of the season, and average high temperatures are now falling. This time of year, the average high at Hartford (BDL) is 85 degrees and 84 at Bridgeport. We're still going to see plenty of hot and humid days, so the annual march toward fall post is not appropriate yet...but it's coming. It's incredible how time flies.
This week we have a rather unusual non-tropical coastal low that will move into New England, bringing rain showers that will be hit or miss with meaningful rain. We will see temps begin to climb again by the end of the week, and 90 will be possible with higher humidity. In addition, the quiet in the Atlantic is likely ending soon. Let's dive in. This should be a short read.
It was a fantastic weekend with plenty of sun, low humidity for this time of year, and near normal temperatures. Much of July has been fairly quiet actually, and we'll take it after the periods of severe weather that plagued the start of summer. We have now passed the climatological peak of the season, and average high temperatures are now falling. This time of year, the average high at Hartford (BDL) is 85 degrees and 84 at Bridgeport. We're still going to see plenty of hot and humid days, so the annual march toward fall post is not appropriate yet...but it's coming. It's incredible how time flies.
This week we have a rather unusual non-tropical coastal low that will move into New England, bringing rain showers that will be hit or miss with meaningful rain. We will see temps begin to climb again by the end of the week, and 90 will be possible with higher humidity. In addition, the quiet in the Atlantic is likely ending soon. Let's dive in. This should be a short read.
Above: the 12z European model depiction of total rainfall through late Wednesday. Global guidance is generally brining the region around an inch of rain this week, but showers are likely to be hit or miss each day.
Monday-Wednesday
The forecast is pretty straightforward this week. An area of low pressure is actually backing into New England as I write, and should bring rain into the state tonight and tomorrow as it continues west. I don't expect a lot of wind with it, so rain is what we're tracking. There will be areas where the rain is heavier than others, and right now the most favored areas tomorrow would be eastern CT.
Tuesday and Wednesday the low decays as a trough gradually moves into the region from the west to kick the unsettled weather out of here. We will see more rain showers--some heavy--with plenty of clouds. High temperatures during this period are likely to be below normal.
Monday-Wednesday
The forecast is pretty straightforward this week. An area of low pressure is actually backing into New England as I write, and should bring rain into the state tonight and tomorrow as it continues west. I don't expect a lot of wind with it, so rain is what we're tracking. There will be areas where the rain is heavier than others, and right now the most favored areas tomorrow would be eastern CT.
Tuesday and Wednesday the low decays as a trough gradually moves into the region from the west to kick the unsettled weather out of here. We will see more rain showers--some heavy--with plenty of clouds. High temperatures during this period are likely to be below normal.
Above: 12z Euro depiction of the low and eventual trough through midweek. It won't rain all the time, but there will be plenty of clouds and likely showers to go around each day, particularly tomorrow and Wednesday.
Thursday-Sunday
By late week we should see temperatures rise along with clearer conditions, but guidance is split on how active things are. Unfortunately this part of the forecast is not as straightforward.
I think Thursday and Friday are our best shot at nice days. We kind of revert to the base summer pattern of modest to high humidity and inland temperatures near 90. Each day should feature the chance of showers and/or thunderstorms. They currently look non-severe.
Saturday and Sunday look more unsettled right now with another trough nearby. We may see highs just shy of 90, with more humidity and daily shower and/or thunderstorm chances.
Watching the Tropics
Just a brief update for now. We are at our usual intraseasonal lull in the Atlantic, but that is coming to an end. A large and vigorous wave moved off Africa in recent days and is now in the central Atlantic, many miles away from any land mass. It doesn't look like much currently because of dry air aloft, but an analysis of current and future conditions suggests to me that this large wave will have a chance to develop as it gets closer to the US. The National Hurricane Center places the odds of development in the next 7 days at 40% at this time.
This is worth noting for two reasons in my opinion. First, any time we have a tropical wave in August near the Bahamas we should be watching at least casually. Second, the steering pattern during the period it gets close to the US does not immediately scream harmless recurve out to sea. There should be a significant ridge nearby that may push this either in the Gulf or close to the coast. Some guidance like the GFS takes it into the Gulf of Mexico, while the Euro and its ensembles--which has been leading in tracking this wave thus far, keeps it near the east coast.
For now we casually watch, meaning there is NO immediate threat, but this is a good reminder more than a week away from any potential serious consideration of the wave that we're moving into the peak of hurricane season soon.
Thursday-Sunday
By late week we should see temperatures rise along with clearer conditions, but guidance is split on how active things are. Unfortunately this part of the forecast is not as straightforward.
I think Thursday and Friday are our best shot at nice days. We kind of revert to the base summer pattern of modest to high humidity and inland temperatures near 90. Each day should feature the chance of showers and/or thunderstorms. They currently look non-severe.
Saturday and Sunday look more unsettled right now with another trough nearby. We may see highs just shy of 90, with more humidity and daily shower and/or thunderstorm chances.
Watching the Tropics
Just a brief update for now. We are at our usual intraseasonal lull in the Atlantic, but that is coming to an end. A large and vigorous wave moved off Africa in recent days and is now in the central Atlantic, many miles away from any land mass. It doesn't look like much currently because of dry air aloft, but an analysis of current and future conditions suggests to me that this large wave will have a chance to develop as it gets closer to the US. The National Hurricane Center places the odds of development in the next 7 days at 40% at this time.
This is worth noting for two reasons in my opinion. First, any time we have a tropical wave in August near the Bahamas we should be watching at least casually. Second, the steering pattern during the period it gets close to the US does not immediately scream harmless recurve out to sea. There should be a significant ridge nearby that may push this either in the Gulf or close to the coast. Some guidance like the GFS takes it into the Gulf of Mexico, while the Euro and its ensembles--which has been leading in tracking this wave thus far, keeps it near the east coast.
For now we casually watch, meaning there is NO immediate threat, but this is a good reminder more than a week away from any potential serious consideration of the wave that we're moving into the peak of hurricane season soon.
The Dailies
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 80%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 60%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and warmer with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 30%.
Friday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 30%.
Saturday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s to upper 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Sunday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s to upper 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 80%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 60%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and warmer with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 30%.
Friday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Chance of rain 30%.
Saturday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s to upper 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Sunday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s to upper 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
