Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

This weekend was a mixed bag, with a nice day on Saturday that was taken down a few notches due to Canadian wildfire smoke and Sunday being cooler but wet at times. 

The week ahead is a classic summertime seesaw. We end the month with a ridge of high pressure bringing another likely heat wave to much of the state, and then we see a wholesale (but likely temporary) transition into a period of cooler and less humid weather. Within that change, a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. Let's dive in. 

Above: A heat advisory is up for most of the state Monday through Wednesday as the combination of heat and humidity will bring widespread heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100. Even in NW CT, it will be hot, so as we've said often this summer make sure you are taking proper heat precautions. 

Monday-Wednesday
The first half of the week is hot. It'll guarantee that our July ends above normal in temperature. A big ridge of high pressure which is baking much of the central U.S. will begin exerting its control over our part of the world, bringing increasing heat and humidity. In fact, this looks like a solid heat wave in that high temperatures inland could reach the mid 90s each day. Temperatures have underperformed a bit lately, but I still think the ingredients are there for a three consecutive days of 90+. 

With the ridge in place, things look sunny and dry, especially Monday and Tuesday. The bright side of this new regime is that with southwest flow we should see the wildfire smoke depart. With the hazy and hot nature of the week however it may not fully alleviate our air quality concerns so keep that in mind as you're engaged in outdoor activities. 

Above: the latest GFS depiction of the ridge over much of the country this week. Note how troughing move in by later Wednesday. That will open up the door for a front to move through, but will also herald the arrival of a new airmass to start our August--the last 1/3 of meteorological summer. 

Wednesday is looking like the afternoon and evening will bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms, but that all depends on the timing of the front. 

Thursday-Sunday
The latter half of the week is interesting for a couple of reasons. First, the heat is likely to break Wednesday, but how it breaks matters. Depending on the timing of the front we may see storms that could be strong to severe. Stay tuned for that. 

Thursday will also bring more rain and storm chances, but this time it's from a wave that may try to develop along the front. Anytime I see this in the summer my antenna is put up because that can be a good way to trigger a heavy rain event. The GFS shows a lesser version of a wet Thursday by hanging the front up in the area and keeping a potential low well to our south, leading to a day of showers and likely non-severe storms. 

The Euro on the other hand lights part of the state up with heavy rain, as you'll see below. The Euro has been pretty consistent on this in recent runs, and the setup is plausible, so this is something we will be watching closely. 

Above: the 12z Euro depiction of the stalled front to our south on Thursday becoming a focal point for heavy rain in parts of the state on both Thursday and a bit of Friday. This is far from set in stone, but with the general setup showing up on the Euro and GFS it is worth watching for the potential of heavy rain. 

In the wake of whatever comes Thursday and Friday, we clear out as the trough brings cooler and drier weather. With high pressure in place, we start August with a reprieve from the heat and humidity, if only for a few days...

Above: A European Ensemble depiction of temperature anomalies over the continent between Monday and the first week of August. Our heat wave will be broken, but the warmth is not too far away...

The Dailies
Monday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the low to mid 90s. A touch cooler wherever there is a sea breeze.

Tuesday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the low to mid 90s. A touch cooler wherever there is a sea breeze.

Wednesday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Chance of thunderstorms later in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low to mid 90s. Chance of storms 50%. 

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and cooler with rain and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 60%. 

Friday: Rain showers early with decreasing clouds during the day. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 40%.  

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

​A​s always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
​
Thank you for reading SCW. 

​-DB

Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather! 

DB here. We've hit a random but meaningful milestone, and rather than plug along without acknowledgement I figured it was worth some reflection.

​This will be a different kind of post, so get ready to walk down memory lane! 

Some of you have been with us from the very beginning. For me, it's hard to believe that I've been forecasting at SCW for a decade now. Thousands of you have come to know me as the lead writer for a few years now, and these days, our forecasts for the state can reach tens of thousands at the snap of a finger. But it wasn't always that way.

Southern Connecticut Weather got its start on January 20, 2013 from our founder, Tim Wrightington, Jr. 

His first post got no likes hahaha. ​

That wouldn't last long, however. Tim's "just the facts" style of posting/forecasting started to grow a following. Little did he know, a historic event was on the horizon. In the days before the Great Blizzard of 2013, one of the four Mt. Rushmore winter storms in all of Connecticut's history (can you name the other three?) TW was sounding the alarm.

In weather, hindsight makes it easy to forget that forecasts can end up all over the place, and change quickly. A healthy dose of skepticism is always good, but some people take it over the top!

It was worth a chuckle to me, but it's no surprise that TW's posts in advance of the blizzard drew a certain type of response...

"[I] see only 14.3 inches. We probably won't even see that"

"Oh please. I have tears from lol at all of this."

"Weather channel says different lol"

"Hahahahahahaha. We had snow once. Almost 2in."

"So you're saying 25-50 inches while WTNH is saying 3-7 inches along the shore?? Who am I to believe??"

Well, TW wasn't quite forecasting 25-50" of snow (it was 15-30"), but we know the result. And we reached our first 100 likes during that event. 

As a forecasting shop just getting off the ground, our maps weren't the prettiest back then...

...but TW's accuracy and no hype style kept growing the following. As the page grew, the team grew. In December 2013 Spencer Aronstein joined the fun. 

This was well timed, because it was winter 2014 where SCW would really take off. In addition to the Facebook page, we added a website with full forecaster discussions--an opportunity to write longer technical and educational discussions--a format that we continue to this day.

Our snow maps also leveled up. 

That said, it was the interactive nature of our page, no hype style, and accuracy that allowed for us to get picked up by local news, and our reach started growing exponentially. 

It's no surprise that our page became one of the hot destinations with fantastic follower engagement. Here's a timeless photo from our first photo contest winner, Amy T. 

Winter is king around here. But we forecast year round. That meant by 2015, the page needed more hands to keep up with the demand. That's when meteorologist Greg Petridis (GP), and your's truly, Don Bell (DB) entered the mix. 

We kept growing our followers and added a Twitter page. We started writing longer outlooks in addition to our annual winter forecasts and even "hired" an intern, Luca Di Carlo, in 2018. Luca went on to intern with WTNH News Channel 8 and then Europe to forecast.

January 2018 brought a big blizzard, which brought feet of snow along the East Coast. SCW was there providing forecasts and updates. It was during this storm that we crossed 20,000 followers. 

While Winter may be king, the recent past has brought some lean years in the snow department and several high impact summer and fall events, with heat waves, tropical storms, and historic flooding events. 

The year 2020 was a tough year for everyone, and that extended into the weather department. One of my most important forecasts was telegraphed long before a storm even threatened Connecticut. This is where I brought in my tropical expertise to let folks know to be prepared. 

I still kick myself for forecasting too much rain in Tropical Storm Isaias, and not going all in on a high impact event statewide, but the wind forecast was spot on and we covered the impacts from that historic event well. 

Isaias should be a reminder that we are not prepared for a true hurricane, let alone a high end one. 

The remnants of Hurricane Ida, which brought a historic flood event to parts of Connecticut was one of the most important forecasts of my life. During these big events, the team collaborates closely to develop forecasts and provide updates. 

One of the most important things we do is hold ourselves accountable. We grade our major forecasts, and it ensures that we are constantly learning and growing, even as (mostly) non-meteorologists. 

https://www.southernconnecticutweather.com/forecaster-discussion/grading-our-forecast-for-the-remnants-of-ida

Those were high stakes forecasts, but those are not always the toughest. In all my years. There was no tougher forecast that the "Miracle Storm" of February 13, 2024. Folks, this one almost took me out. 

In this storm though--the only one where I recall waking up and being entirely unsure of whether it would snow or not--I re-learned a lesson that has been at the core of who we are at SCW: Always tell the truth, come what may. 

Sometimes we have a very good sense of things and have a great or poor forecast. Sometimes, we're just along for the ride and we have to do our very best in a highly uncertain environment. You rely on us to try to get it right, but more importantly, in a social media and media landscape that relies far more on engagement, profit generation, and hype than ever before, you rely on us to tell you the truth.

No wishcasting, No downplaying. The truth. 

We did that in this storm and boy did it pay off. Our forecast was proven accurate at the end of it all. 

SCW Today

Today we're at 33,000 followers, and our page has changed a lot. Although I still rely on the team for some of our biggest forecasts, as you probably know by now our team is effectively much smaller. I am the man behind the forecasts and updates, with SA helping to manage the technical aspects of the page behind the scenes.

With a full time job and numerous hats in my life, that makes this work harder than ever. It remains a labor of love, however. 

The storms never stop, and it can be exhausting work, but you all make it worth it. 

"I just wanted to thank you guys for always being calm and straight to the point w/o all the fanfare. You keep us up to date, tell it like it is, and most of all reply to our comments. Keep up the great work. You are the first I go to to check weather conditions and have been following you for a long time!"
​​
In addition to the forecasts on the page, there's so much more that happens behind the scenes. We help people forecast their weddings and their beach days. We've helped people find the safest time to travel during a storm to get their child to a hospital for surgery, and we've helped calm countless travelers worried about their flight being delayed.

Then there are the stories we never hear. People who delay travel during dangerous events because of our warnings. People who save money because we give a heads up about bad weather that could ruin an event they've planned, and let's not forget all the folks hoping for a snow day.

From that first post, SCW has had an enormous impact. It's impossible to have a perfect forecast, but we always give it our best shot. What an honor it is to try. 

SCW isn't going anywhere. We will continue to learn and grow in every way that we can. 

Thank you for being part of the journey. 

​-DB