Currently: Very quiet.  Sprawling high pressure, stretching from the Twin Tiers to East of Cape Cod was responsible for producing the nice day across the area today.  Temperatures will come up a couple degrees tomorrow, as the warmer (western) high takes over.  TD EIGHT, just east of the OBX, was analyzed, as well, but is having little effect on our weather.

Tonight: Not much going on.  Warm air advection will keep temperatures from falling very much.

Tomorrow: A bit warmer than today, as the high pressure system that will control tomorrow's weather has more of a land origin rather than a marine version.  There is a chance that some thunderstorms creep into the area by rush hour, but coverage is probably not all that high.  High temperatures should range in the 80-85 degree range, though a few areas in the CT Valley (I 91 corridor) could get into the upper 80s.

Tomorrow Night and Thursday: This period will be dominated by periods of showers and thunderstorms.  Although it really isn't a great idea to try to time each individual band of showers and thunderstorms, there will be periods of showers through this period.  It will not be a washout, and there will be periods of sun, but have an umbrella handy.  Expect most highs Thursday to be in the low 80s.  Once again, one or two locales could be warmer if they get more sun.

Longer Term: Friday into Labor Day Weekend and beyond- At first glance, this period looks to be absolutely beautiful, with a Canadian High pressure system moving in, providing high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the 50s, and the first part of this period, Friday and Saturday, should definitely live up to that advanced billing.

However, as we head deeper into the long term, into Sunday and Monday, all eyes will turn to tropical depression NINE, which by then will either be a strong tropical storm, or even a low-end hurricane.  Keep in mind, a 70 MPH tropical storm is a lot different than a 40 MPH tropical storm.  As of now, my forecast will not call for this storm to have direct impacts on the state, since most modeling does not show direct impacts.  However, in the last 24 hours, modeling has taken a decided westward trend.  Most modeling now shows the storm moving very slowly and possibly taking a sharp westward turn as it gets near this latitude.  It also does not show the system weakening very much, partly due to abnormally-warm waters and partly due to interaction with a frontal zone and extratropical transition.

There is blocking high pressure to the north of this system, up over Quebec.  There is also blocking high pressure over the Western Atlantic.  Obviously, the storm will take a path between those two high pressure systems.  While no solution is currently etched in stone, a solution further west, up the coast, or even retrograding into the coast, is certainly plausible, given the fact that there is blocking in place.

Another thing to note- this system is very large geographically.  As I mentioned before, TD EIGHT is near the Outer Banks of NC.  Yet nobody would have even known that.  If TD NINE were there, showers and wind would probably be occurring right now in the state.  This goes to show that TD NINE, which will be named soon, ( I am not going to write the possible name here, because there is a possibility that TD EIGHT could get a name a few hours earlier), does not have to hit directly to spread adverse weather conditions into the state.  Either way, stay tuned, as anything from high clouds and enhanced rip currents to an all out tropical storm could affect the state for the second half of Labor Day Weekend!

The newly-arrived 18Z GFS ENS mean has a landfalling TS over Central LI, just FWIW!

Marine Notes: I don't usually spend much time doing this, partly because Connecticut does not have an Atlantic Coastline, but given that Labor Day weekend is coming, I felt this is noteworthy.  Rip currents are currently running very high, mostly from strong Hurricane Gaston, which is well E of Bermuda.  These rip currents will only increase as TD 8 moves into the North Atlantic shipping lanes, and TD 9 begins to make its march up the coast.  Obviously, if Tropical Storm watches are posted, the public would take notice.  But even if there are no direct effects from any tropical systems on our state, anyone venturing to New Jersey, Long Island, or Cape Cod area beaches, PLEASE beware of rip currents! They cannot be seen, close in very fast, and can sweep good swimmers out to sea.  This can be a life-threatening situation, so please take extreme caution!

Now, let's take a look at some graphics displaying what I outlined above.

Here is a look at the strong cold front moving through Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  Due to bad timing, there shouldn't be any severe weather, but a solid area of beneficial rain is possible.

​ 

Next, here is the NHC's cone regarding the current TD 9.  Keep in mind, this has moved 300 miles or so west in the last 24 hours.

​

That's all for now.. have a great rest of your week!

​-GP!

Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather!

In this post, I want to talk about our wonderful stretch of weather this week and about the recent uptick in the tropics. I know both are of great interest to many!

The Week Ahead
First things first though. Things in our neck of the woods look to be very quiet all week. We continue our dry period with very few rain chances this week. 

​Our summer like pattern has hung on, and although we’re slowly stepping down toward fall, we’re still looking at an extended period of above normal temperatures.

There is strong agreement from both the European and GFS ensembles both in the short and long term about persistent ridging and higher heights over the east, with one exception—Labor Day Weekend…

Before we get to that though, let’s talk briefly about the next few days. 

Sunday-Wednesday
There is a slight chance of showers later tonight and early Monday as a weak cold front passes through the region, but the chances are very low, as high pressure and dry conditions aloft dominate. With high pressure anchored to our northwest at least early in this period, we see seasonably warm temperatures with reduced humidity. A cold front passes Wednesday evening, bringing our next chance of showers, but rain looks unlikely here too. Humidity may increase a bit late Tuesday and into Wednesday, but it is nothing overwhelming as we head into…can you believe it…meteorological fall!

Thursday/Friday
​Thursday is September 1st, and right on time for the start of meteorological fall, we get our first real taste of fall. Instead of blabbering on—let’s look at the panels!

Looking just above the surface at 850mb temperatures, this is quite a cool shot. Get out and enjoy it! It doesn’t last the whole weekend but these days are as good as good gets, with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s!

Labor Day Weekend Sneak Peek
The wonderful temperatures on Thursday and Friday don’t last forever. As I mentioned earlier in this post—this is our oasis in a pattern that will run above normal. Ridging builds back in, and by this time, I think we’re turning our attention to the tropics…

The Dailies:
Sunday: Cloudy start but gradual clearing during the day. Very slight chance of showers late. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of showers 10%. 

Monday: Mostly sunny with a slight chance of showers early. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of showers late. Chance of rain 20%. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny with reduced humidity. Beautiful day. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows in the mid to upper 50s. 

Friday: Gorgeous. Highs in the mid 70s. Lows in the mid to upper 50s. 

Saturday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 70s. 

Bonus!
Sunday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 
Labor Day: Partly cloudy and warmer. Highs in the mid 80s. 

Part II: The Tumultuous Tropics
​Things are heating up. What many mockingly call the most famous Invest in history, Invest 99L is still spinning south of Florida this morning. After eleven days of tracking, this frustrating system has not developed yet, and it is no guarantee that it ever does.

Current enhanced satellite loop of 99L. It's disorganized and getting sheared, but has a chance to develop in the Gulf of Mexico by early this week. 

The lack of development is a real problem for forecasters—as errors in both track and intensity forecasting are greatest when there is not a well defined system. This is something to keep in mind moving forward into the peak of hurricane season. Don’t buy the models past 5 days when we have this kind of uncertainty. Heck, you might not even be able to buy them inside 3 days with 99L.

What may be quickly overtaking 99L in terms of organization, is Invest 91L. This disturbance is in between Bermuda and the US coast, and will actually make a close approach south of our region. It does not threaten us, but it could develop to a tropical depression as soon as today and may become a weak tropical storm as it moves westward. It likely gets kicked out to sea, but we’ll be watching closely.

Latest ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer--think of it as an X-Ray) image of 91L. You can see a likely closed circulation at the center with the wind barbs turning, and relatively strong winds to the north of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system today. 

Finally, there is a new area of interest out near Africa. This could be one to watch in the very long range, and if you like ridiculous model runs you can already see it's "potential" but it is not worth worrying (or really even thinking) about right now. A lot will change.

As I mentioned yesterday, Connecticut is always a potentially vulnerable spot during hurricane season. We are quickly approaching the peak of the season in September, and the tropics look to remain active through the next few weeks. Unlike other years, I am particularly focused on the tropics right now because of our overall pattern. As I mentioned at the start, there is strong agreement from both the European and GFS ensembles in a strong ridging pattern for the east coast. That is one of the key elements needed for tropical systems to make a close approach or hit somewhere along the US coastline. 

Now, let me be clear, I am not calling for a visit by a tropical critter, but it is hard to not look at the pattern and not see the potential for someone on the east coast to see some sort of close approach should this pattern hold. Everyone should be doing their annual check of their preparedness plan!

Over the next few weeks as the tropics heat up, I'll be here to make sure you are #HurricaneStrong. 

Thanks for reading!
​
-DB

The beautiful weather we enjoyed the past couple days is going to be replaced by a warmer, more humid regime once again.

High pressure near Baltimore will continue to drift Southeast offshore tonight.  That will setup a return flow of Southwesterly winds.  This means heat and humidity will move back into the region, coming up from the Gulf Of Mexico region.

Tonight could be an interesting night regarding temperatures.  Winds will be near calm throughout the night.  In the winter, this would be a great setup for the coldest night of the week and great radiational cooling.  However, since we're in summertime, the return flow will have set up aloft, which will slow the drop of temperatures.  Despite this, some of the usual cooler spots may be able to radiate very well, so there could be potential large swings in temperatures tonight.  In general, low temperatures across the state should range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s.  There could be a few places right along the Long Island Sound that only get to the upper 60s.  Keep in mind, water temperatures are very warm and a light Southwesterly flow could actually warm the south coast up toward morning.

Tomorrow: A bit warmer than today.   Highs should be generally in the mid 80s, with sea breezes and cooler hillier locations cancelling each other out, so to speak.  It should still not be horribly uncomfortable.  By late in the day, however, the humidity will begin to rise again.

Tomorrow Night into Thursday: We'll continue to see increasing relative humidity, as the warm return flow around the offshore high pressure system continues.  Lows should be between 60 and 70 statewide Tomorrow night, and highs will be between 80 and 85 on Thursday, but with much higher humidity than Wednesday.

Into the longer term... a warm front of sorts will approach late Thursday night.  Most of the moisture associated with this will die out before getting to Connecticut, but there could be a brief shower around sunrise in the hillier interior locations.  This feature will be more notable for establishing a very hot and muggy day across the state on Friday.  Low temperatures Thursday night will only be in the low 70s in most places, and highs on Friday will be in the 85-90 degree range.  High levels of humidity will make it feel considerably hotter.

The weekend should be a typical summery weekend.  Cooler air will seep in from the north, but without much fanfare, as the front that passes through Friday night should be dry.  Highs will be 80-85 on Saturday, and a notch or two lower on Sunday.  

Another frontal system will approach in the afternoon on Monday.  Models currently show a dying line of thunderstorms moving through the state, so the action should once again remain mostly to the west of the state.  However, this system does at least look a bit more potent than the one for Friday morning, so chances of thunderstorms on Monday will be a bit higher.  As for temperatures on Monday, we should be looking at highs in the low 80s.  Nice weather should move in on Tuesday, with temperatures a degree or two cooler than those of Monday.

The longer range looks like humidity will dominate.  There continue to be two clusters of modeling- one that keeps it humid and more stormy across the area, as thunderstorms ride through the area along the "ring of fire" around the offshore high pressure system.  The other scenario brings the Bermuda High in closer to the area, which would result in another period of very hot weather as we go into September.  Either way, it will be uncomfortable for quite a while longer.  Another thing to keep an eye on is the tropics.  While there are currently no immediate tropical threats, any time you have a very strong Bermuda High and very warm sea surface temperatures this time of year, it sets up a very favorable pattern for tropical systems along the east coast of the United States from North Carolina North and Northeastward.  So, for now, while there are no immediate threats on the horizon, it is worth staying tuned to products from the National Hurricane Center to see what's going on in the Tropical Atlantic Basin, especially given the pattern at hand.

Now, let's take a look at a couple systems that could affect the state in graphical format.

First, let's take a look at the warm frontal system moving in early Friday morning.

You can see most of the moisture from this system, as depicted, is restricted to far northern areas of the state.  The other precipitation with this system is far away from Connecticut.  The next system is slated for Monday afternoon.  

You can see this system is a bit more potent than the one from three days prior, but it is still not a huge system, at least as modeled right now, by any means.  

Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!

-GP!

 ​Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
The past few days have featured beautiful summertime weather, with reasonable temperatures and low humidity. This week forecast generally looks to continue that trend, with the main chance for precipitation coming tomorrow evening into Monday.
 
Sunday-Monday
 
Clouds will build through the day, with a shower or two possible tomorrow afternoon, but steady rain should hold off until the evening hours. Temps will be seasonable, with highs in the low to mid 80s. A cold front will approach from the west Sunday evening, bringing an area of rain to the state. Unlike our previous several systems, this will be a more uniform area of rain rather than convectively focused, and as such the whole state should get a much-needed drink. Generally expecting between half an inch to an inch of rain across the state. Steady rain should be out of the state by early Monday morning, with some lingering showers over eastern areas possible through the morning commute. Otherwise, expect a clearing trend on Monday, with sunshine across most of the state for the afternoon, and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Tuesday-Friday
 
Quiet weather expected for the remainder of the work week, with a steady warming trend throughout. Expect highs around 80 on Tuesday, in the mid to upper 80s on both Wednesday and Thursday, and in the upper 80s to near 90 on Friday. Humidity levels will also consistently increase through the week, with the dewpoint approaching 70 across much of the state on Friday. While not as humid as some of what we’ve seen recently, you’ll definitely feel the humidity on Friday!
 
Saturday-Sunday
 
At first glance, warm temps continue through the weekend, but humidity drops significantly, so it should be a great weekend to get some outdoor time in! Front moves through Friday evening and could spark some scattered showers and thunderstorms, but guidance is very unenthusiastic and so will just mention a slight chance for now.
 
The Dailies
Sunday: Clouds building, with a chance of showers late in the day, then rain overnight. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain is 30% during the day and 90% overnight.
Monday: A slight chance of showers early, otherwise, clearing, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low 80s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and hotter, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms late, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
 
Not much to talk about this week, so we'll keep this one short and sweet. Have a great rest of your weekend!
-SA
​

The parade of weak cold fronts trying to advance into the Western Atlantic Ridge and intrusions of warm and humid weather.  I do suspect that the overall strength of the heat ridges may be weaker with time, but after all, it is getting into the second half of August now!

For tonight, we're actually in a drier air mass, at least relative to what has been going on, so that would lead one to believe that temperatures will be able to get cooler than previous nights.  However, clouds will be on the increase from SW to NE.  Therefore, the  Northeast corner of the state will probably see the coolest temperatures.  Overall, low temperatures should be from the mid 60s to around 70.  As far as precipitation chances.. a warm front approaches from the SW tonight.  There is a chance of a round of showers and imbedded thunderstorms along this front, near or just before dawn in the far western portions of the state.  These showers should dissipate as they encounter more stable air.  I usually use I 91 as a boundary separating Western and Eastern CT.  This time the showers may stay along and west of US 7!

For tomorrow, high temperatures could be a little tricky, because the day will be dominated by clouds and showers/thunderstorms.  Areas that get a good respite between storms and see a good period of sun could sneak into the mid 80s.  However, most areas will stay in the low 80s.  As far as precipitation, it will be difficult to time the different areas of precipitation and localize them into the forecast.  However, given this is day 1, I have to do it.  So, my best guess... there is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the far Northeast portion of the state.  Leftover energy from the dissipated morning showers may trigger a few isolated cells in that area.  The rest of the state will likely have to wait until nighttime, as in after 10 PM, for a more solid line of thunderstorms to traverse the state, as a shortwave approaches.

Heading into Friday, temperatures will be warmer and the humidity will be higher, since we'll be on the other side of the warm front.  There isn't really much of a trigger for thunderstorms, but there is still some instability in the far western portions of the state, so a widely scattered "heat of the day" type thunderstorm is possible in those areas.  High temperatures on Friday should be in the mid to upper 80s.

For the weekend, if you're looking for a day free of precipitation chances, Saturday is the better of the two days.  There is some instability that it wouldn't be hard to imagine a thunderstorm developing in the hills on Saturday, but the chance is so low, it's probably best to leave it out of the forecast for now.  High temperatures on Saturday should be in the 80 to 85 degree range.

A slow-moving cold front approaches the area on Sunday.  Recently, it has seemed that all cold fronts move precariously slow as they approach the area.  This is because of the strength and position of the Bermuda-Azores ridge and the resistance it creates when a front approaches, which results in the fronts slowing to a crawl and even frontolysis (the death of a front).  This front is stronger than its predecessors, so I do not expect this front to die a long, slow death, but rather just slow down, as it needs to climb the crest of the ridge.  What this does is, instead of just a quick round of thunderstorms ahead of fronts, it creates several opportunities for thunderstorms.  So, there could be a round of thunderstorms late in the day on Sunday, perhaps followed by a weaker, second round late at night Sunday night.  This second round appears more likely out east.  Anyway, high temperatures on Sunday should be in the low 80s.  But again, away from the coast, any areas that get several hours of sun could sneak into the mid 80s.

For early next week, starting with Monday, model guidance has been trending drier with Monday.  Part of me wants to call for showers and thunderstorms Monday due to recent trends.  However, since almost all model runs are dry and cooler for Monday, we'll show the front going through and keep Monday dry.  In fact, all of early next week should be dry and pleasant right through Wednesday, with high temperatures in the 80 to 85 degree range on Monday and then near 80 Tuesday and Wednesday.  It is possible that much of the state actually gets into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings! However, longer range guidance is starting to show hints of that nasty Bermuda Azores Ridge nudging west again! It may be deja vu all over again, Yogi!

One extra note to this package, Tropical Storm Fiona has formed over the Far Eastern Atlantic.  Most of the guidance sends her out to sea, but there are a few model products that bring her close to the East Coast in 10-14 days.  With very warm SST (Sea Surface Temperatures), a tropical system could be sustained stronger than average at this latitude.  We'll keep our eyes on Fiona, as she treks the Atlantic Ocean looking for Shrek!

Let's now take a look at tomorrow's thunderstorms.  This is a map showing tomorrow evening's thunderstorm threat.  

You can see this cluster of thunderstorms basically covers the entire state of CT, with the exception being the far NE corner, but they'll likely get them in the next frame.

Next, let's take a look at the system slated to affect the state Sunday afternoon.

​

Once again, the state gets good coverage of thunderstorms.  For now, ignore the random, lighter-shaded areas.  They could be model noise.  Models have a poor track record of placing areas of convection that far out.  Of course, some areas will get more than others, but it is ridiculous trying to say who is going to get more or less precipitation in a convective setup that far out.'

Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!

-GP!