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...TASTES OF FALL TO FIGHT AGAINST THE PUSHBACK OF SUMMER....

8/29/2017

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  Disc: There will be some very chilly days in the upcoming period, but they will be interspersed with some warmer days as well- not too atypical for this time of year- but generally biased on the cool side, as we have seen in the last week or so.

Currently: A hybrid pseudo-tropical cyclone was located near Wilmington, NC, this afternoon.  This system is responsible for the rain across mostly southern and eastern portions of the state today.  High pressure near Mount Washington was keeping places further north and west dry.  As the high shifts east, at least light rain should overspread most of the state, except maybe the far NW hills may only see a passing shower.

Tonight: Rain should be on a downward trend after midnight.  A few showers or a period or two of rain may linger a few hours longer over southern & eastern sections, but all areas should see the rain end before morning.  Guidance temperatures will be excepted verbatim, due to cloud cover, so 55 to 60 for lows.

Tomorrow: With downsloping flow and plenty of sunshine, I went near or above the warmest guidance sets.  These types of days usually overperform with regard to high temperatures.  My thinking is 75-80; overall, a very nice day!

Tomorrow Night/Thu: Thursday will feature one of these summer pushbacks I highlighted in my headliner.  Again, I'll go with the warmer sets of guidance, given the atmospheric setup, but not over all guidance, since clouds will be increasing during the day.  A strong cold front will move through late in the day.  Models diverge as to whether or not this will produce any appreciable precipitation across the area.  The NAM would make you think that the cold front does not exist, while the GFS has a pretty decent line of convection.  Given two factors- first, a strong cold front like this may not produce precipitation everywhere, and second, that this year has rained whenever it could- I'll include a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the cold frontal passage.  High temperatures should be quite warm, in the 80-85 degree range.  This should also aide in the production of showers and thunderstorms.

Long Term- the weekend and beyond: A crisp air mass will move in for Friday and Saturday, on the heels of the aforementioned strong cold front.  Friday's highs should be generally near 70, with Saturday's highs 70 to 75.  In fact, Friday night's temperatures will be below 50 in the entire state, with some 30's showing up in the NW Hills... a true taste of fall!

On Sunday, the forecast becomes more problematic.  The remnants of Hurricane Harvey will approach from the Southwest.  Now, don't get scared and think that we are getting the kind of rain that Texas is getting.  In fact, the forecast is pretty complicated as to whether or not we get rain and how much we get.  Strong high pressure up north may suppress a lot of the moisture to the south and west.  However, I am currently going with the grouping of models that brings more moisture into the area.  My feeling is that the high will move out a bit quicker than progged and we're dealing with a former hurricane which will still be a moisture-laden storm, so I don't think it will have that much trouble punching into our area.  For now, though, instead of jumping all in recklessly, let's take it step by step, and I'll say it is likely that the southwestern half of the state gets decent rains, and there's a chance of showers for the northeastern half of the state.  The timing of this event is within a few hours of midnight Saturday night for starting time, then Sunday evening for end time.  High temperatures are also tricky for Sunday, and could present something of a "reverse gradient", especially if it's raining hard in the Southwest and partly sunny in the northeast.  For now, since I'm going cloudier and rainier than the majority of guidance (and the fact that guidance tends to be too warm on rainy days at this range- check today for an example), I'll go a few degrees cooler than guidance.  Also, at this range, I won't try to get too cute with temperatures and just broadbrush lower 70s across the state.

Monday and Tuesday look fair with above normal temperatures in the wake of whatever happens with Hurricane Harvey's remnants.  Temperatures could get quite warm, especially by Tuesday, with a downsloping setup in place.  High temperatures should be 80-85 on Monday, with mid 80s for Tuesday.  Another strong cold front should approach the area on Wednesday.  This one could pack a more solid area of precipitation than Thursday's front, and also contain the coolest temperatures since last spring behind it.

The long range looks to feature a lot more of what I talked about in the headliner- occasional strong cold fronts, with showers and thunderstorms along the frontal boundaries, with above normal temperatures in between, as the last vestiges of summer continue to fight the clock against an impending autumn.  

One other note I'd like to make in closing: There is VERY cold air over southern and central Canada on the modeling over the next few weeks, and actually in current reality as well (so this isn't just modeled anymore).  It is impossible to tell at this juncture when this "motherlode" will come down; however, it is there, and one of these days, it will make its move Southeastward.  When it does, expect a very early, sudden burst of cold air!


Now, let's take a look at some of the systems affecting our area in the coming week.  Once again, after today, the "main event" will be Harvey's remnants on Sunday, so to include two maps, I'll post a map of Saturday's low temperatures first.  You can see the entire state is in the 50s, with 40s over the NW hills.  Keep two things in mind: First, the actual "low" temperatures as modeled are a couple degrees lower than this (but there is no map available at that time).  Second off, both timewise and spatially, these maps are "smoothed out"... so in reality, putting the entire state in 40s and the NW hills in the upper 30s is probably closer to reality.

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Now, let's take a look at the remnants of Harvey, as modeled by the GFS model.  Keep in mind, this model has a bias to be too dry and too far S & E at this range, as happened today.  Even with this model's depiction, most of the state looks pretty wet, especially the southern half- so it's a pretty decent bet that Sunday will be wet.

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That's all for now, from the soggy SCW weather center! Have a great rest of your week!

-GP!
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Forecaster's Discussion--8/27/17

8/27/2017

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Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather.
 
Before talking about the week ahead, let’s talk about the week that was. Two major events impacted the country. First, the total solar eclipse. For the first time in decades, millions of Americans were able to see the moon align itself in front of the sun, bringing the breathtaking sight of totality to millions. I was in South Carolina and able to take in the sight, and it was a truly incredible moment.
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​Unfortunately, a devastating weather event quickly overtook the eclipse coverage—Hurricane Harvey. For those that follow tropical season closely, you know that Harvey is now one of the newest additions to the list of Cape Verde systems—waves that start off the coast of Africa and travel all the way across the Atlantic to hit land. Harvey rapidly strengthened to a category four hurricane as it hit Texas, becoming the first major (category 3+) storm to hit America since the historic 2005 season and the first category four storm to hit the US since 2004. 
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Harvey was incredibly strong as it was making landfall, bringing legitimate category four conditions to areas like Port Aransas and Rockport. In this image I captured right before landfall, you can see the true power of Harvey. Note how the eye isn't round. The eye became a home for vortex rossby waves, a sign of an exceptionally powerful core. 

​Now, Harvey is entering an even more deadly phase. With the steering currents weak, Harvey is bringing exceptional flooding to southeast Texas. Some areas will receive feet of rain. Years’ worth of rain is falling in Texas. The images are heartbreaking and we're just getting started. 
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Harvey is a reminder that everyone in a hurricane zone must be prepared now for tropical systems. Do not wait for a threat to have the supplies needed to handle a hurricane. We are only now getting close to the peak of hurricane season, which happens in September. From Irene to Sandy, Connecticut is not immune to being impacted. I doubt that this will be the only threat to the US this season…
 
Which brings me to the week ahead.
  
Today-Tuesday
The first few days of the week continue our stretch of beautiful and seasonable weather. High pressure remains in place, bringing sunny conditions and temperatures in the 70s. There really isn’t a whole lot to say other than enjoy!
 
Wednesday-Thursday
By Tuesday night however, we’re watching an area to our south. In fact, it may be tropical in nature. Currently designated as Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center, this tropical wave like Harvey came from the African coast. Unlike Harvey, it is languishing in very hostile conditions off the coast of Florida. Over the next few days, we expect it to move north, and hug the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina. By the time it reaches North Carolina, it is expected to merge with a cold front, and begin to move northeast and out to sea. Good for us, because this would have been a powerful storm. 
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Currently, we do NOT expect any direct impacts, though watch for high surf and potential rip currents. It is something that we will continue to watch however, and will keep you informed if things change. 
We expect rain showers to approach the region on Thursday, as a cold front begins to push through the area. It doesn’t look like a washout currently, and I’ll leave it to future forecasts to hone in on timing, which currently look to be the afternoon hours.
 
Friday-Saturday
As we begin September and Labor Day Weekend, the forecast looks like fall. The cold front moves through the region and we see below normal temperatures. Sunny, cool, and low humidity is a great way to start a holiday weekend!
 
The Dailies
Sunday: Sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
 
Monday: Sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
 
Tuesday: Increasing clouds but still nice. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
 
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers from the southern system. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 10%.
 
Thursday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 50%.
 
Friday: Sunny and cool. Highs in the upper 60s.
 
Saturday: Sunny and slightly warmer. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
 
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts! Hit the buttons below to join!
 
Have a great week!
 
-DB
Follow @SouthernCTWX
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Forecasters Discussion for 8/20/2017

8/20/2017

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Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather! I hope everyone was able to enjoy the great weather we had this weekend – with seasonably warm temps and ample sunshine, it was a great weekend to get some last summer activities in before the kids head back to school. For this week, we’re looking at a warm first half before a trough moves in for later in the week bringing sharply cooler temperatures and a first taste of fall to the state.
 
Monday
Thankfully for those of you who plan to watch the solar eclipse tomorrow, we are looking at a beautiful summer day to start off your workweek. Mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 80s will make for great viewing conditions across the state. Please remember that it is extrememly dangerous to look at the eclipsed sun without ISO approved eclipse glasses; sunglasses do not count! Also, do not use unfiltered binoculars, telescopes, cameras, or any other optical device.  More information can be found here: https://eclipse2017.nasa.gov/safety. If you don’t have eclipse glasses, there are many events and viewing parties throughout the state that are providing them; your local library is a great resource to check, or you can find some other events here: http://www.ctvisit.com/articles/where-see-great-american-eclipse-connecticut. Be safe tomorrow and enjoy this incredible phenomenon!

Tuesday-Wednesday
 
Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week and also ­­will be quite muggy ahead of a frontal passage late Tuesday evening. Highs should reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, and with the humidity in place, it will be a bit unpleasant to be out. Skies should be mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers and storms during the day giving way to a steadier line overnight and into Wednesday morning with the frontal passage. Could see a few storms reaching severe status, with strong winds being the primary hazard. For Wednesday, we should see any lingering rain from the frontal passage wrap up early in the morning, but a risk of some scattered storms lasts throughout most of the day. Otherwise, clearing skies are expected over the course of the day with highs in the mid 80s.

Here's a look at the line on Tuesday evening from the GFS.
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​Thursday-Sunday
 
High pressure over the Great Lakes will strengthen and spread eastward to close out the week into next weekend, resulting in a trough over our area. This means that we’ll see dry, sunny days and cool, crisp nights; with moderate temperatures and low humidity, it will feel like a first taste of fall. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70s with sunny skies throughout the period.
 
The Dailies
 
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and thunderstorms likely overnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, cloudy, then becoming partly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday: Sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Friday: Sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Saturday: Sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Sunday: Sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
 
Have a great week and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
 
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...NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND STILL FREQUENT STORMINESS AS FAR AS THE EYE CAN SEE...

8/15/2017

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In general, the pattern this summer has been one of periods of normal to below normal temperatures interspersed with periods of normal to above normal temperatures, but the common theme has been overachieving rain events every few days, and there still is no reason for that to change.

Currently: One low pressure system was currently near the Chessy Bay, with another low near Niagara Falls.  Hurricane Gert was located well off the coast of the Carolinas.  A warm front was located over the Susq Valley, with a cold front across the Great Lakes region.

Tonight: Temperatures will depend on how much we can clear.  Given the atmosphere is moist and clouds have won the battle the last few days, I'll err on the cloudier side of things, which would mean warmer temperatures.  Thinking right now is for lows mainly in the mid to upper 60s, but a few lower 60s are possible in the NW Hills.

Tomorrow: The combination of strong August sun being more than enough to scour out any morning low clouds and fog, Hurricane Gert offshore, and the area being in the warm sector, should be enough to allow temperatures to rise into the 85 to 90 degree range.  Humidity levels will be a bit lower, however.

Tomorrow Night/Thu: With increasing clouds and the winds shifting to a more onshore direction should mean much cooler temperatures on Thursday, with most highs just in the upper 70s, although it could touch 80 in a few spots in the I 91 corridor.  Any shower and thunderstorm activity should stay to the SW of the region, especially given the strong onshore flow.

Long Term (the weekend and beyond): On Friday, a cold front will approach the area.  Showers and thunderstorms will become likely, especially in the 2nd half of the day.  I'm going with a cloudier, rainier forecast than consensus, and as a result, I'll keep high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

The rest of the long term period actually looks quiet.  (Could we actually have our first 5-7 day long dry period in quite a while)? There could be a lingering shower or thunderstorm Saturday morning, especially in Eastern sections.  Temperatures will actually be warmer behind the cold front, but with much lower humidity (it's really more of a dew point front).  Temperatures through the period will generally be in the mid to upper 80s for highs, with a few locations getting to 90 possible on Sunday and Monday.  There's a low probability of a diurnal type thunderstorm on Sunday, especially in the NW Hills.

Hurricane Gert is located well off the Carolina coast.  Although this storm poses no threat to land, it is generating large, dangerous rip currents.  Use extreme caution if going to Atlantic beaches the next couple of days.

Long Range: The long range looks to feature above normal temperatures, as we get through the 2nd half of August.  There's a higher than normal risk of a threat from a tropical system during this time frame, as well.  This could be a hurricane, a rain storm from the remnants of a tropical system, or a tropical system that comes close and misses.  This does not mean a hurricane is coming.  It just means that the pattern is more favorable, as a Bermuda High sets up offshore and the MDR (Main Development Region) in the Atlantic becomes more active.

Now, let's take a graphical look at some weather systems slated to affect the area.  Once again, we only have one significant system- that is on Friday- affecting the area, so I'll post Thursday morning's low temperatures first, as some areas may get rather chilly for the time of year.

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This map is just a timestamp, instantaneous shot. If we take into consideration that most temperature products show low temperatures 2 to 5 degrees colder than this map, much of the state will be in the 50s, away from the cities and coast Thursday morning! Now let's look at the cold front and heavy rain potential for Friday.

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As you can see from this map, most of the state is already in steady rains, and the heavier stuff down over NJ, LI, and the adjacent Atlantic is moving NNE toward the state.  There is heavy rain potential Friday and Friday night!

Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!

​-GP!
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Forecasters Discussion for 8/11/2017

8/11/2017

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Good afternoon to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
It’s a beautiful summer day across Connecticut, with temperatures uniformly in the mid to upper 70s across the state and mostly sunny skies prevailing. For the rest of the afternoon, we should see clouds building throughout the afternoon, but precipitation will hold off until after dark. Two weak shortwaves will cross the area tomorrow, each bringing an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Drier weather returns to end the weekend and start off the workweek.
 
Friday
 
Clear skies across most of the state will gradually give way to clouds over the course of the afternoon, but we should be precipitation free. Temps should rise another couple degrees from current levels, topping off in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
 
Saturday
 
Two distinct shortwaves will cross the state from tonight through tomorrow night, each bringing an area of showers and thunderstorms to the area. The first should come through after midnight tonight and clear the area by midday Saturday, while the second arrives after dark tomorrow. In between, some scattered showers are still possible, but it is likely that most of the state will be dry tomorrow afternoon. Not exepcting any severe thunderstorms, but we could see some pop up cells that bring briefly heavy rain to an area; as of now those look more likely in the second wave of showers Saturday evening and overnight. Otherwise, precipitation totals should be light; a quarter to a half of an inch of rain is a reasonable estimate right now. Highs will be slightly below normal in the upper 70s.


Here's a look at tomorrow's simulated radar on the hires NAM.
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​
Sunday & Monday

 
High pressure arriving behind the departing shortwaves will bring dry and pleasant weather for the back half of your weekend, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s and dewpoints falling into the 50s by the afternoon.  Should see a mix of sun and clouds, trending more towards the sunny side of the equation as the day progresses. Should be a great day to get in a hike, a beach day, or for just lounging around on the patio with a good book and a cold drink! We’ll rinse and repeat for Monday.
 
Tuesday
 
Guidance diverges a bit in this period as tropical moisture tries to make its way northward along the coastline. The GFS keeps any precipitation offshore aside from maybe a couple of scattered showers, while the Euro is stronger and further northwest, resulting in a rainy day for Tuesday. For now, I will include a slight chance of precipitation for Tuesday and allow the next forecaster to evaluate if needed, but I don’t expect anything significant to come of this regardless of if we do end up getting a bit wet on Tuesday.

Here's a look at this from the GFS - the Euro is a bit more organized and so tugs some of the precipitation back up into our area, but it looks pretty minor overall.
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Wednesday-Thursday
 
Following whatever we may see on Tuesday, guidance is in good agreement in a return to high pressure over the area, leading to dry and comfortable weather with near normal temperatures.
 
The Dailies
 
Friday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Saturday: Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday: A slight chance of showers early in the morning, otherwise, becoming partly sunny, with high in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Tuesday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
 
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
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